Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 3/22/24 – By Eric Solomon

There’s a 10 race card highlighted by a strong starter allowance for Arkansas bred runners in the 9th race today. First post is 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

A field of seven filly and mare claimers, running on mile for a $32K-$30K tag, will start the day at Oaklawn. Sunny Isle Beach (#2) is the pick in this race. She finished ahead of the morning line favorite, Enchanted Nile (#3) when they squared off in an optional claiming/N2X allowance race two starts back. Shirer tried her on synthetic last time out at Turfway and that didn’t seem to be her thing. She gets back on a traditional dirt course and back to a level where she can have success. While it may look like her form is tailing off on paper, this will be her third start off the layoff. The last time she ran in a straight claiming race, she came out on top. I think Simona’s Choice (#6) is going to force the issue with Enchanted Nile early in this race. She fell flat in an open $16K claiming race in her last try last month. She was claimed by a barn that is sharp first off the claim, and I like her getting back to the mile after three consecutive sprints. I think both will be forward in a race that doesn’t have much other speed. I’ll backup with both in the event that one concedes an easy lead to the other. 

Race 2:

$12,500-$10,000 N2L claimers will sprint six furlongs in the race that starts the Early Pick-4. There are some horses that simply don’t like to win competing in this one. While I don’t love playing horses that are 1 for 26, I’m going to take Kid Shelleen (#4) on top with Calvin Borel riding for Renay Borel. He’s been knocking on the door with better company in his last several starts and I think he might have found a field soft enough to beat. Including his lone victory, which was a 10 ½ length beatdown in maiden allowance company at Louisiana Downs over the summer, he has 16 in the money finishes hitting the board 61.5% of the time. The majority of those races were stronger and deeper than the group he’s up against here. I’ll play the veteran, three-time Derby winner, to get his first victory at this meet. Lord Grantham (#7) was good enough to win a race like this last year, but his form since being claimed away from Chris Hartman has regressed somewhat. After a dull effort with $16K N2L claimers, Altamirano drops him back in for the $12,500 tag and adds blinkers to maybe wake him up. As a four year old, he might have a little more upside than some of the old-timers he’s facing. American Icon (#6) goes for the Asmussen barn, whose runners have been taking a decent amount of money lately. When you start the week with 51 victories at the meet, it’s understandable why his horses are getting bet. His last three sprint races have all netted a Beyer Speed Figure between 65-68, which is likely good enough to put him right there with these. Others might offer better value, but he’s worth covering in the horizontal wagers. 

Race 3:

$7,500 N3L filly and mare claimers will sprint six furlongs here. There are two runners that are going to take the bulk of the money and I can’t make a reasonable case for their rivals. Adiva (#3) moves up to N3L claiming company after a pair of wins since being claimed by Steve Asmussen. She has rounded back into her better form since she changed hands. If she runs back to her last race, I think she’s going to score in her third straight. Taking Charge Desi (#5) is the most consistent mare in the field. She’s often close at the end of the race, but it’s been almost a full year since she last found the Winner’s Circle. There’s not much competition in this race so as long she doesn’t run down to her rivals, she’ll be in the thick of it. 

Race 4:

Fillies and mares, three and up, will go 1 1/16 miles in this maiden special weight contest. It’s hard to wager on the morning line favorite, Happy Happy (#5) on top seeing how she has struggled to break well in the majority of her ten career starts. It’s become a bad habit that has been present in all three of her career races on the dirt. I do like that her figures are trending up on the main track, but there’s not a ton of early speed in this race, so I think a poor break would be unforgiving. I’m willing to forgive the dull effort from K’antheia (#7) in the slop at this level last time out. She never looked completely comfortable, rating behind horses and taking a lot of mud to the face. When Happy Happy came over the top with her bid, she tried to go with her, but couldn’t keep up. She showed enough promise in her first two starts last year to make me believe that she has a bigger race to run today. I think she’ll sit a nice trip behind the pacesetters and get first run on the closers. Queen Clancy (#1) was sharp when going two turns at this level two starts ago. She dropped back into a sprint race when catching a sloppy course at the end of January. Much like K’antheia, she seemed to struggle gaining traction on the off track last time out. I think this two turn distance will suit her better and the rail draw should ensure inside position over the other speed horse, Rose Parade (#2). She debuted in a $100K maiden claiming race here going one mile at the beginning of the month. She led all the way until she was nailed in the final stride. She fired a bullet work since that effort, so she’s another one that could have a forward move, despite the rise in class. Being posted outside of Queen Clancy isn’t ideal, but it’s not a deal-breaker either. 

Race 5: 

The Early Pick-5 ends with another $12,500-$10,000 N2L claiming race, this one for fillies and mares to be contested at 1 1/16 miles. Beautiful and Bold (#5) is the pick here, making her fourth start at the current meet and her second straight try at two turns on the dirt. She is winless since breaking her maiden on debut in a five furlong sprint at Delaware in August of 2022. Despite failing to find the Winner’s Circle, she ran several credible races at two turns on this oval last season, most of which came in allowance company. She was third at this level two starts back when sprinting. She had a wide journey last time out with $20K N2L claimers. She drops in class and should have a better trip with a slightly better post today. Salsalita Verde (#9) draws the outside post, so she’ll need to work out a trip in this race. However, she was an impressive maiden winner two starts ago. She was claimed for $12,500 in that race and then faced off against Beautiful and Bold in the same $20K N2L claiming race and she was within a ¼ length of her on the wire. She makes her second start for Norman McKnight in a race where she figures to be competitive. On deeper tickets, the longshot, Choctaw Blessings (#2) is a bit interesting. She was impressive in her second career start when breaking her maiden with ease in a $12,500 maiden claiming race (she was eligible to run with a $20K tag as an Arkansas bred). She’s sired by Mastery who is getting 14% winners with his runners that are routing on the dirt for the first time. The dam has one foal who won in their first route race. There’s no doubt that the field she dominated last out was not very good. However, she has some upside in a race where many horses are a little stagnant. She’s not the worst play at 20-1 or higher. 

Race 6:

Three year old fillies sprint six furlongs in this $50K maiden claimer. Spacitygal (#6) is a second time starter who finished a respectable third in her debut behind a runaway winner two weeks ago. That horse came back to run a credible third yesterday when facing starter allowance foes. She caught a sloppy course that afternoon, so moving to a fast track for her second start while competing at the same level feels like a chance to move forward. Opposite the Crowd (#2) and Wowsers (#5) are both coming out of the same $30K maiden claiming race. Wowsers was bumped hard at the break and was over 20 lengths off the pace. She came with a strong late bid as she was flying home to get up for second. The conventional thought is that with a better start, she should run a better race. She did get a solid pace to close into that afternoon and her trainer has struggled to win with second time starters. I’ll cover with her, but I prefer others. I think Opposite the Crowd has a little more upside after being by Cipriano Contreras. He claimed this one for himself and he moves her up in class after gaining some ground late to get into 6th in that same race. This barn has excelled with horses first off the claim at this meet. He;s the first foal to race from this mare who improved in her second career start. 

Race 7:

The Late Pick-4 begins with a $50K-$40K N3L claiming race at six furlongs. Gold Luck (#5) came back to the main track after a three race stint at Turfway, which seemed to help him get back to better form. He was overmatched against a good field of $50K starter allowance foes last time. He’s been on a steady diet of allowance and starter allowance races lately, but he drops into a straight claiming race for the first time since winning with open $75K claimers at Churchill in May. Backside Buzz (#3) is reunited with the leading rider, Cristian Torres, after a dull effort with $75K-$65K N3L claimers in the mud here two weeks ago. He’s typically a better horse sprinting on a fast track, which he’ll likely get to do for the first time since November today. I think these two are capable of separating themselves from the others in this race. 

Race 8: 

Time restricted $25K-$20K claimers will go six furlongs in this race which starts the last Pick-3 of the afternoon. I see this ten horse contest as one of the more wide open races of the afternoon. I’m going to try the longshot, Upstriker (#5) on top, making his second start off a brief layoff. When he’s right, he’s a handful to deal with. He had nice wins here, at Churchill, and at Ellis last year, while being a popular commodity in the claiming game. He is cross-entered at the Fair Grounds in a 12 horse race today. He has shorter odds in that race, but he’s based here, where he runs for a purse that is $18K greater. Samurai Prince (#2)would be the top pick if that one hits the road. He’s making his first start since November for Mike Maker in this race. He was claimed for $32K in his last start at Churchill. While I am concerned that he has never won on a fast dirt track, it’s not like he’s consistently running poor races on this surface. Ruggs (#9) runs for the lowest tag of his career while making his first start for a new trainer. That win was his first in a while two starts ago. He fits on figures, but is likely to be overbet in this spot. On deeper tickets, Royal Act (#1) sprints for the first time in his 21 race career today. While I don’t love this change up for him, he is the best closer in the race and assuming this field stays intact, he’s going to get some pace in front of him to set up his late move. He’s going to have to keep up his energy and stay in the same zip code as some of the others in the first quarter mile. He might be worth covering in this race. 

Race 9:

For the second straight afternoon, Arkansas breds will take the spotlight in the featured race of the afternoon. They’ll compete in a $50K starter allowance today going 1 1/16 miles. Many of these runners are good and familiar with each other. Both Willow Creek Road (#1)won the Arkansas Breeders’ Championship at the end of the 2022-23 meet last year and Dinner at Crumpies (#6) wasn’t too far behind. Even though he doesn’t win a ton, I think Dinner at Crumpies is a solid longshot try in this race. He’s making his second start off a layoff and coming back on quickly after narrowly losing to Black Apple in a similar race in the mud two weeks ago. Both of his wins have come on this course and he finds a field of stretch out sprinters that aren’t as effective at longer distances. Willow Creek Road was not good in his first two races this year. However, he snapped back into form last time out, narrowly missing in the Nodouble Breeders’ Stakes three weeks ago. He’ll have to prove that he can back up a big effort with another big effort, but I like his post for the race he wants to run today. One Ten Stadium (#9) is another runner that doesn’t win a ton of races. He’s been closing to get close in some sprints to start this meet. He has solid efforts at two turns and he might get the right pace scenario to set him up to get rolling in the stretch. 

Race 10: 

The Friday nightcap is a beaten $10,000-$7,500 claiming race going six furlongs. Risk Profile (#5) has been up and down in form, but I do think the Asmussen claim can help him right the ship this week. He was good enough win an open $10K claiming race at Saratoga this summer and he was a decent third three starts ago against a field that was better than this group. He struggled against a strong $12,500 starter allowance field two starts back and was flat in his most recent start with $12,500 time restricted claimers. This feels like the kind of race where he turns it around. Martini Blu (#3) gets one more shot with the waiver after returning to face similar in the mud last month. I don’t mind the route to a sprint move for his second start off the layoff. Robertson has good numbers with runners second off the layoff, so this feels like a spot for improvement for him. Populist (#6) was claimed by Diodoro out of a similar race here last month. He was wide while trying to duel on the front end and he ended up fading to 5th. While I’m not sure this is his best distance, he is the most consistent runner in this field.

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 91/404 (22.5%, $931.80, $2.31 ROI)