Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 3/9/24 – By Eric Solomon

The Saturday card is headlined by the Grade 2 Azeri Stakes for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. This is the final local prep race in the series that leads up to the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Stakes next month. The weather should be clearing today and the track should be drying out after some rainy days here to start the week. First post today 12:30 (CT). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a nice $30K starter allowance, restricted to horses that have started at least one time for a claiming tag of $30K or less since the start of 2022. I’m struggling a bit with this race because Jackman (#1) is a very logical favorite, riding high on a five race win streak. Broberg did wonders with this horse and he put him in for a $30K tag last out, knowing that this race, which carries a $65K purse, was waiting two weeks down the road. Greg Compton, who is a capable trainer, claimed him that day and brings him back 15 days later. I’m concerned that his Beyer figures have been declining a bit in his last two starts. He looked like he was getting a bit tired in the late stages of his last two races. However, on the flip side, other than maybe Atta Party (#4), who doesn’t appear to be as sharp as he was last summer, I don’t think anyone can go with him early in this 5 ½ furlong dash. He’s going to be tough to deal with if there’s not one in the field to keep him honest. I’m putting him on the A line, but I’m going to try Macron (#2) on top, in hopes the Haran is starting to figure this six year old gelding out. He looked poised to be another strong sprinter from the Asmussen barn in 2022, but things didn’t really pan out that way. He’s been claimed twice since and he’s been four lengths behind Jackman twice already at this meet. De La Cruz rode him hard to get the lead out and even though he faded late, that seemed to wake him up a bit. I think he could either try to take it to Jackman early, or stalk him and make a run at him late. However, I do think he’s the one that has the best chance of defeating him in this race. 

Race 2:

State bred runners, three years old and up, will run six furlongs in this $20K N2L claiming event. It’s hard to find a better alternative to the favorite, Choctaw Zip (#4) in this race. He was a strong second with $45K-$40K N2L state bred claimers a few weeks ago. He rebounded nicely from a dull effort in the slop two starts back. If you draw a line through that race, his last effort, which was a career top speed figure, does fit a pattern of improvement. While this looks like a steep drop in class, the difference between these class levels in state bred races is not as wide as it is in open company. He’s the play, even at a short price. Both Secret Tavern (#6) and Chupapi Munyayo (#7) figure to be the ones that would be most likely to have a chance to beat the favorite. Both are making their third starts off layoffs, and both have finished off the board in their first two starts in 2024. Secret Tavern is a three year old taking on some older foes. He wants to be forwardly placed and he should be able to secure the lead on the rail, despite starting in the middle of the gate. The field that beat him at this level last out was deeper than this group today. Chupapi Munyayo was about six lengths behind Choctaw Zip last time out and he finished alongside Secret Tavern two starts back. He was a little too far back early to have a say in the outcome last time out. I think his backers are still waiting for him to run back to the race that he ran when breaking his maiden last year. Both horses are candidates to improve, but as horses that are likely to go off between the second and fourth choices in the wagering, I’m not sure there’s going to be enough value there for me to take much of a shot with either when facing the favorite. 

Race 3:

$75K-$65K N3L claimers will sprint six furlongs here. The morning line favorite is Under Oath (#2), who was claimed off Pletcher by Diodoro in his last start back in November at Churchill. He gets to run with the waiver, which at this level is a positive sign for me. However, this horse has struggled to fire when fresh and his recent works aren’t the snappiest. I’ll play against him in this spot, giving preference to the the Indiana invader, Improbable Journey (#6) for Matt Shirer. He was running solid races with better horses on this oval last year. When you look at the names of the horses that he was up against, it makes sense that he was 0-9 in 2023. He just missed in a pair of N2X allowance races at Horseshoe Indianapolis last summer before faltering on the turf at Ellis at the end of June. He’s been sidelined since, but he’s working well for his return and this spot feels like the right level for competition for him as he embarks on his five year old campaign.  Nelson Avenue (#3) goes for Michael Stidham and Godolphin, whip shipping in from New Orleans. He cleared the N1X allowance condition back in December of 2022. He has three solid efforts at the N2X allowance level there on dirt. The purses of those races are less than the $70K purse offered here, so even though he’s dropping in for a tag, the move makes sense for this runner that was gelded prior to coming back in October after a lengthy layoff. The distance is a bit of a question mark, but blinkers will go on. I like both of these runners a good bit, but I think Improbable Journey is slightly better suited for the six furlong trip, which will put him over the top for me. Absolute Chaos (#5) was a bit of a wild card in his last start. He dropped in for a tag after being on the sidelines for exactly one year. He caught another wet track and ran the same Beyer Figure that he did in his only two starts in 2023. Shea Stuart claimed him out of that race for $50K and moves up  in class to run with a $75K tag. He was really good here in 2022, and while I don’t know if he’ll get back to those numbers, I do think he’s capable of improving, and if he does, he should be right there on the wire once again. 

Race 4:

I’m going to side with the old-timer, Man in the Can (#5) in this state bred starter allowance race. He started his seven year old season in a six furlong sprint against some of the faster Arkansas breds in training. He is not a six furlong horse, nor has he ever been one. That race was clearly designed as a starting point with a race like the Arkansas Breeders’ Championship at the end of the meet in mind. He’s always been a horse that has needed a race before getting back to the best version of himself. While he may have lost a step, I think he’ll be forwardly placed and sit the right trip to beat this field. Black Apple (#1) is the “now” horse in this running, running two big races in a row to kick off this meet. He beat state bred N1X allowance types then was very sharp when beating an open $50K starter allowance field in the slop last month. Those efforts are likely to ensure that he’ll be a short priced favorite when they go into the starting gate today. If that is the case, this will be the first time in his eight race career that he’ll be the favorite in a race, despite having three wins. He’s turning into a very gelding, but I think he’s going to be overbet in this race, and I’m not completely convinced that he’s ready to beat a horse as classy as Man in the Can.

Race 5: 

Fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this $30K N2L claiming race. If this field stays intact, there are several fillies that are going to be vying for the early lead. As a result, the table should be set for Lil Town Sis (#5) to score her second career victory. She broke her maiden two starts ago in her 14th career start. She came back at this level two weeks later and rallied into third. She was at the back of the pack in a race where the pace wasn’t particularly fast. The winner of that race, Bertie’s Cause, was closer to the front end, sitting a close up 5th. She came back to clear the N3L condition last weekend. I think she’ll benefit from having the race over the track and  I think she’s going to have a stronger pace to close into. Humor Me Jim (#8) is the one they’ll have to beat in this race. She opened a nice lead only to be caught in the final stages of her last race, which came at this level at the beginning of February. Kevin Martin claimed her out of that race and he brings her back five weeks later at practically the same condition. He claimed Beachgrass and just missed with her on yesterday’s card. She’s run two very good races in her first two career starts on a traditional dirt course. 

Race 6:

The Late Pick-5 starts with a maiden special weight for three year old fillies going one mile. Brad Cox sends out the morning line favorite, Flashy Dancer (#3), who figures to be tough with this group. There’s some interesting stats with this one that makes taking 8-5 on her a little more palatable. Cox has sent out five horses sired by Curlin to make their debut in a race at a mile or longer. Four of them went on to win with the lone runner to falter finishing 4th when going a one turn mile at Churchill. I do think debuting and winning at a one turn mile is a harder assignment then doing so at a two turn mile, which is what is being asked of this filly today. Her dam, Actress, broke her maiden in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan back in 2017. Her first foal won her second career start, which was her first try at two turns. Her second foal to race was Hit Show, who won on debut and would go on to win the Grade 3 Withers Stakes last year before finishing second in the Wood Memorial and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. There’s a lot to like with this filly and she’s going to be on most of my tickets. However, I do think there’s a very good chance that she goes off at even money or lower. Regardless of how good Cox’s numbers are with debut runners, it’s hard for me to take such a short price on a first time starter at two turns. I’ll make Under the Palms (#1) the top pick, making her first start since an adventurous race when making her first dirt start at Saratoga this summer. She stumbled out of the gate when drawing the outside post in a one mile race there. She was wide throughout the first turn while far behind the other five runners. She did make up some ground going into the second turn, where she went wide and then lugged in a bit when being asked to try to split rivals. The dominant winner of that race was Life Talk, who went on to finish third in the Frizette, fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and first in the Demoiselle. McPeek gave her time to develop and brings her back after some solid works here and at the Fair Grounds. Catalyst (#4) is a deeper saver for me in this race. She made a decent step forward in her second start, finishing 4th here at this level last month. She’s been favored in both career starts, which may be a function of being a My Racehorse horse. Getting decent value on their horses is a difficult task. Steve Asmussen’s barn has four wins already this week at Oaklawn. 

Race 7:

Eleven runners entered this $20K N3L claiming race at one mile. The morning line favorite is Runningforcash (#4), who is coming off a dominating win with $12,500 N2L claimers at the end of January. He was claimed for $30K two starts back and immediately dropped in class to face $12,500 claimers. He was claimed by Timothy Martin,who doesn’t have bad numbers first off the claim, but he’s having a brutal meet thus far, going 0–68, with only seven runners finishing in the money. This runner is moving up in class, while coming off a career top effort and moving to a struggling barn. He certainly feels extremely vulnerable in this spot, so I’ll be siding against this one. I’ll try a price on top and use Lil Sweet Thang (#7) as the top pick. He has some good efforts at this distance, and I like that Lindsay Schultz is stretching him out to a two turn race after a dull effort in his first start off the layoff in a sprint. That has been a profitable angle for this barn since 2023. She has followed this pattern of running in a sprint first off the layoff and then routing in the second start, seven times in her career as a trainer. Four of those runners found the Winner’s Circle at odds of 5-2, 9-2, 10-1, and 19-1. He’s 0-3 on this oval, but all of those races came against tougher fields. I see him as a live longshot in this field. Desert Wolf (#10) has been popular at the claim box in his last few starts, being claimed in three of his last four races. Brad Cox reached in to re-claim him two starts back when he was second with $20K-$16K N2L claimers here in January. He came back to face $16K-$12.5K N2L claimers last out and was an easy winner. John Ortiz claimed him and he’s had a nice meet so far after struggling here last season. This four year old is trending up and despite moving up in class, I think he’s a player with this field today. Arollercoasterride (#6) is an interesting runner in this field. He was claimed by Robertino Diodoro, who won both maiden special weight races on yesterday’s cards with horses that were somewhat overlooked in the wagering. His rider, Harry Hernandez, had his first three-win day yesterday, riding both of those runners and a horse for Dan Ward. I would like to get odds that are better than the 7-2 morning line on this gelding, but I’m unsure how the public is going to perceive this runner. He could easily go off as the favorite, or his odds might float up closer to 5-1. His best races came at Hastings, which is a smaller, bullring track in Western Canada. He made his local debut here last month with $30K-$25K N3L claimers in the slop. He was away slow from the gate and was never involved in that six furlong contest. Despite breaking his maiden at six furlongs at Santa Rosa in 2022, he’s at his best in longer races, so I like that he’s stretching out to one mile today. Since he’s run well on the bullring, the shorter stretch in the mile races here might be favorable. I don’t love the drop after the claim, but Diodoro makes the move frequently, and when the drop isn’t as steep, that typically is better. I’ll use him on the B line, but I might upgrade him if he’s a little cold on the board. 

Race 8: 

Three year olds will go 1 ⅛ miles in this maiden special weight race. I’m a big fan of both starts from Native Land (#1). He debuted in a maiden special weight race where he was dismissed at 73-1. He was last away from the starting gate, but he made a prolonged middle move where he passed 10 horses to take the lead, while going five wide on the second turn. Common Defense, who was recently second in the Rebel Stakes, got the perfect trip in behind runners, and was able to tip out and pass him late while drawing clear. He was just nipped by Give Me Liberty for second. That one will run in the Tampa Bay Derby today, which is scheduled to go off four minutes before this race. He caught a sloppy track last time out and drew an outside post. He was three wide all the way around the first turn. He went up and engaged the 9-5 favorite, Flashy Fast, early, and they dueled down the backstretch until he took the lead and opened up about two lengths. That battle softened him up though and he was passed by Speedtail late. He was able to hold on to second place, finishing 1 ¼ lengths better than Melt With You (#9). He draws the rail and should be able to dictate a slow to moderate tempo in this race. He can also sit back and make a run if others decide to force the issue. He’s been battle tested in his first two starts and I think he’s well suited to handle the extra half furlong here. Riyadh Moon (#4) ran well in his debut in the slop, but Goldbrick and Crushed It ran off in a race of their own that day. His second start was over before it began after he dumped his rider and ran off before the start of the race. He showed a little interest early, but he faded badly and jogged home. The track today is not likely to be sloppy, which will be a new experience for him. He may be overlooked after his last race, which I’m willing to toss. Django (#8) also ran poorly in the slop last out, when making his first start since November. He’s run into some talented runners in his first few starts, many of which would go on to win stakes or allowance races in their subsequent starts. I don’t love that he’s been beaten by double digit lengths in three of his six career starts, but I do think he’s a plodding horse that makes sense at this longer distance. 

Race 9, The Grade 2 Azeri Stakes:

I was strongly against Hot and Sultry (#6) in the Grade 3 Bayakoa last out. She ran a huge race two starts back in the Chilukki, and I was concerned that she was winless in three starts at two turns. She stumbled badly out of the gate and had to try to run from last, which is definitely not her game. She finished with some interest to finish a non-threatening 5th in that race. She comes back here and I do think Santana will be on the aggressive side with her. However, she’s going to have to deal with the four year old filly, Comparative (#4), who came in from New York to bring home the trophy that afternoon. I don’t think Franco is going to concede the lead to her, and there’s a reasonable chance that Jevian Toledo and Saddle Up Jessie (#5) might try to keep the favorite wide by sending her as well. I don’t trust Hot and Sultry to have enough left for the stretch run in this race. I do think the winner of the Grade 3 Houston Ladies Classic, Bellamore (#2) might be able to run them all down late. She stayed close, but at the back of the field before coming with her four wide bid. She scored in her first start since joining Asmussen’s barn, and he seemed to have fixed what was bothering her in the last two starts. She doesn’t win a ton, but that last race could be the confidence boost that she needs. I’ll pick her to get up late. If the front-runners aren’t asked to work too hard, I think Comparative is the one I want. She has now won 5 of her last 6 races, including stakes wins here and at Aqueduct. This is her fourth start since a dismal effort in the Black Eyed Susan in the spring. She seems to have learned from that experience and is a much better filly now. I wouldn’t be surprised if she moved forward in this race. Saddle Up Jessie might be at the top of her game, meaning that she’s really good, but she might not be getting better. Brittany Russell sends her out here after a strong win in the Heavenly Prize Invitational last out at Aqueduct. She was only a neck behind Comparative two starts ago, so I do think I need to cover with her.

Race 10: 

The Saturday program will end with a very nice N1X allowance race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. There’s several horses moving up in class for this race, so I think Pate (#5) becomes a strong option. While admittedly, I think she would be a very nice horse at 6 ½ or 7 furlongs, that’s not an option when she’s racing here. She’s a closer, so she is a bit trip and pace dependent, so I’m not going to want to take much lower than her 7-2 morning line number. However, I do see a decent amount of speed signed for this race, and she’s making her third start off the layoff. She has one win and four seconds in eight career starts, but two of her 4th place finishes were races where she was beaten a length or less. Her other off the board race came in the Grade 3 Fantasy when trying two turns for the first and only time. I think today could very well be the day for her to get her second career score. American Band (#1) ran with the waiver in claiming company in her last two races for John Haran, and her most recent effort earned her a career top Beyer Speed Figure. That last race was close to the numbers that she ran in her last two starts in 2023 before going on a lengthy layoff. She is also making her third start off the layoff, and while the rail might be a tricky post in this race, she had a pretty sweet trip when stalking a hot pace while breaking near the rail. Sister Kisses (#4) was a nose better than Pate when they last met at this level in the mud last month. She has the look of a filly that is starting to figure some things out. She has paired her Beyers in her first two races on this oval, so there’s reason to believe that she could move forward once again off her latest effort. She’s another live contender in a race that feels pretty wide open. On deeper tickets, Blame Day (#6) is coming out of that same race, and she was just a length behind Sister Kisses and Pate. She was making her first start of the meet for Calhoun, who kept her here after her last effort. She’s worked twice over this course and is another candidate to improve in this one. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 80/337 (23.7%, $822.40, $2.44 ROI)