Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 4/28/24 – By Eric Solomon

There’s a nine race program that will end the week of racing at Oaklawn Park. With only four days of racing left, the jockey and trainer races are all but over with Cristian Torres holding a comfortable lead for jockeys and Steve Asmussen well out in front of the trainers. First post this afternoon will be 12:35 (CT). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The Sunday card starts off with a maiden special weight contest for fillies and mares going one mile. Ava Moon Pie (#4) had a brutal trip at Keeneland as a 30-1 longshot in her last start. The horse next to her bobbled at the break and then leaned in to her for the first several strides. She was at least six wide going into the first turn, and was widest of all throughout. She was shuffled to the back of the field, and she tried to make a run but was floated wide again and threw in the towel .That race was a total toss for me. She comes back to Oaklawn for one more race before the end of the meet. She was a decent 4th in her debut in the mud on this oval in a race where the second and third place finishers came back to break their maidens in their next starts. There could be a little moisture in the track, especially in the earlier part of the card, as some storms were projected to roll through the area Saturday evening. I think she offers more value than Queen Clancy (#1), who despite putting up some nice figures, has been going the wrong direction in the final furlong of each of her races. Xena (#7) was 4th on debut when beaten by Under the Palms, the horse who was third in Ava Moon Pie’s debut. She showed some early speed before tiring late against a solid field on the Arkansas Derby undercard. She worked five furlongs nine days ago and should be ready for her second career start. Vinobello (#2) is another second time starter that could be interesting in this race. She debuted in an above average sprint race where the winner was dominant. She finished a well-beaten 4th that day. Since then, she tried to run in the race that Xena debuted in, but she was a vet scratch. Since her last start she’s been moved to Norm Casse’s barn, and he has good numbers with new acquisitions. She’s sired by Vino Rosso, who is getting 20% winners with his dirt runners routing for the first time. There is some definite upside here. 

Race 2:

A field of nine has been entered for this $25K maiden claiming contest at six furlongs. Arkansas breds are eligible to run for a $40K claiming tag, and there’s one horse, Peaceafterthunder (#4) that is taking advantage of that. I mention this condition footnote frequently in this races because when the eight other horses in this race run again (and most likely, all will be running at a different track for that next race), the designation for this race in the PP’s will be “Md 25000 (40-25)” This tells you that those horses ran with a $25K tag, but without keeping track of things like this, one might assume this race could have attracted $30K or $40K open maiden claimers, which would likely make this field seem deeper than it is. It’s hard to make a case against Museum Quality (#6) in this race. This five year old gelding is dropping in for a tag for the first time in four starts. He’s finished in the money each time, but has yet to seal the deal. His first three races came in maiden allowance races in New Mexico. He finished 2nd in a below average maiden allowance race here three weeks ago. Fincher opts to being this one in for a tag for the first time. He’s run well and his dam was a multiple Grade 1 winning mare who was second to Beholder in the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. It feels like today is his day. Keeneyes (#1) is another five year old maiden that has a shot in this spot. He was very good in his debut. He looked beat, but he re-broke and finished within a half length of the winner in $30K maiden claiming company. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in this $12,500-$10,000 N2L claiming race. Lofty Heights (#3) gets the nod from me in her third career start. She was a winner on debut and was then claimed at this level by Joe Sharp in her last start. She was beaten seven lengths that day and adds blinkers for the first time today. Sharp has good numbers first off the claim and I like that she paired her first two Beyer figures before going into start number three.I doubt we’ll get 15-1 on her, but I’m comfortable using her as low as 6-1. Weather Map (#12) might be spending the rest of her career trying to get back to the race that she ran when breaking her maiden on debut. She makes her third start of the meet and her first since being claimed by Chris Hartman. He’s been the latest in a series of talented trainers that are going to try to fix what is ailing her. The winner of her last race came back to win impressively here on Friday. There’s enough upside to consider her with the outside draw in this race. Hayek (#2) is one of the more consistent runners in this race. She’ll likely be gunning for the early lead from her inside draw, Her two dirt sprints on this oval have been races that would be competitive with this field. 7-2 on any runner in this race is a little light for my liking, but she’s another one to think about. 

Race 4:

State bred beaten $20K claimers will sprint six furlongs here. To be eligible for this race a horse must either have not won three time or have not won since November 28th. It’s hard to look past Blame J D (#12) in the outside stall for this race. Dan Ward had two winners on Saturday and he’s looking to end this Oaklawn meet on a high note before heading back East for a summer campaign at Monmouth. While I’m sure this Arkansas bred would fit in at some condition in New Jersey, this feels like a spot to offer him up before leaving town. He ran a decent second in a state bred optional $30K/N1X allowance race two weeks ago. Mahomey is a very good horse and he was only a length and half behind him. There’s no one of the caliber in this race and if he can run back to that effort, I see his picture getting taken. Shake Up (#4) likes a fast course and should benefit from the drop in class today. Blame J D  was about four lengths better than him when they last faced off. If the track comes up fast, I see him flying under the radar a little bit in this race. If he can go off close to his 12-1 morning line price, he comes fairly interesting. Colonel Barton (#2) has quietly been quite sharp in his last two races. He handily cleared the N2L claiming condition two back, and he just missed in his last race, finishing a neck behind Aspen Club (#11) in a beaten $12,500 state bred claiming race two weeks ago. All the principal players from that race are back in this spot.  

Race 5:

The race that ends the Early Pick-5 and starts the Late Pick-5 is a $40K maiden claiming race for three old fillies going six furlongs. An overflow field of 13 passed through the entry box, with only a maximum of 12 going into the starting gate. It definitely feels like this race is going to run through Loveland (#1), who is the 4-5 morning line favorite, She was beaten a length with $100K maiden claimers in her most recent start. She’s finished second in both of her career dirt sprints, with her only off the board finish coming in a two turn maiden allowance race at Churchill. I don’t love the drop to this level, but someone is going to have to run a huge race to win this. If anyone does it, my money is on Opposite the Crowd (#12), who I’ll try on top. She’s missed the break in her first two starts, which is a definite concern. She finished with interest in her first start and she moved well late in her last. I like the addition of blinkers for start number three. It’s hard to argue with the success this barn has had during the 2023-24 meet, winning at a 26% clip.

Race 6:

Three year olds will sprint six furlongs in this optional $80K claiming/$62,500 starter allowance race. Four of the ten runners are entered with the $80K price tag. Of that quartet, only Strike Ridge (#2) and Andy’s Candy (#6) are not eligible for the starter allowance condition. This is a tough race because you have such a variety of class lines from the last races of the ten horses in this race. You have horses coming out of two different state bred stakes races, an open stakes race, a state bred allowance, maiden claiming races, a N2L claiming race, an open N1X allowance race, and a race at this level. Bourbon Aficionado (#7) ran a huge race in the slop at this level last out. However, that big effort came out of nowhere, and I’m not certain that he’s going to be able to duplicate that effort. There was some rain in the area overnight, and while there’s not a ton in the forecast today, I’m going to put him on the C line for this race, with the intent to upgrade him if the track does come up muddy or sloppy.  Power Slam (#9) finished about two lengths in front of him in January when they met. He was claimed two back for $40K in a race where he went to his knees out of the gate. He bumped his rival and then was fighting Walter De La Cruz down in the first ¼ mile. That was not his best effort but Dream Walkin Farms, reached in to re-claim him for $55K in his next start. They brought him to Will Rogers Downs where he was eligible to race in the Welder Stakes for fellow Oklahoma breds. He was a solid second in that race, running one of his better races. I thought his first effort on this course was solid and I’m willing to ignore his last two starts here. I think he offers solid value at 12-1 on the morning line, especially since he beat the favorite a few months ago. Landlord (#1) has overcome some less than ideal trips in his first two starts. He was bumped hard a few times at the break in his debut when he faced an above average field in the $20,000-$12,500 maiden claiming condition. The second and third place finishers in that race came back to win in their next starts. He came back to run in the Rainbow Stakes for Arkansas bred three year olds, where he was able to get off the rail late and he just missed, losing to Patton’s Tizzy (#10) on the wire. I don’t love the rail draw for him, but he’s paired his first two Beyer figures and he’s proven that he doesn’t quit when things are going his way, which is a favorable characteristic for a lightly raced horse. Sweet Soddy J (#5) ran a decent third in the Lafayette Stakes at Evangeline Downs three weeks ago. He has a pair of stakes wins in Maryland, winning the Timonium Juvenile and the Heft Stakes at Laurel as a two year old. There’s not a ton of options for a young three year old that has cleared the first two allowance conditions, so Raymond Ginter has brought this horse to wherever he might be competitive. He’s already run at Aqueduct, Laurel, Oaklawn, and Evangeline in 2024, and he comes back here to run at this optional claiming/starter allowance condition which he’s eligible for because he broke his maiden in a $40K maiden claiming race at Colonial on debut in August. He never really looked comfortable in his last start, but I still think he ran well in that race. A longshot burst out of the gate and quickly put some distance between himself and the rest of the field. He moved over closer to the rail, while racing in the middle of the pack. He came with a decent move, but he had to tap on the brakes and wait for some room. Tim Thornton tried the rail, but the favorite has the momentum on the outer part of the track. He never looked like he wanted to be inside and had to settle for third. He does like to be out front, so we’ll see how aggressive Joseph Bealmar is with him. I’ll also toss in Andy’s Candy (#6) as a deeper saver. His last few races have been disappointing. He did face Booth in an allowance race two back in the slop. That one had a great trip that day while he was taking a lot of mud to the face in behind runners. He was flat last out at this level, so Hartman opts to drop him in class, where he’ll be offered for a tag for the first time since breaking his maiden in a $75K maiden claiming race. I’ve been chasing this horse for the last few races and I still think he has a better race in him. 

Race 7:

Every year, the racing office gets a little creative with the condition book at the end of the meet in order to try to write races that give as many horses on site a chance to race here in a competitive spot before they embark on whatever summer plans that lie ahead of them. This is an optional $35K claiming/N1X allowance race for fillies and mares, sprinting six furlongs. It’s fair to wonder how much pace pressure the Arkansas bred, Connie K (#3) is going to have to deal with in this race. There are others that want to be forward, but she’s probably the speed of the speed. She ran a gam third in the Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes last month. Randy Morse could have waited to run her in the Natural State Breeders’ Stakes next week at a mile, but she’s struggled in that race in the last two years and this six furlong trip is more her speed. She’s lost both of her races in open company here, but both of those were against strong fields. I’m using her in this race because I think the filly and mare sprint division in the state bred ranks is strong. I’d upgrade her on a muddy or sloppy course, but I’m looking for a few runners that might be able to catch her late. Off Ramp (#5) is the pick in her second start off the layoff today. She was getting better in the spring here last season, winning a race at this condition on this weekend in 2023. She left here and was excellent at Hawthorne, dominating an allowance field in June and finishing third in a stakes race in July. The turf experiment at Kentucky Downs was a failure, and after that she went to the sidelines until three weeks ago when she came back in a competitive $62,500 starter allowance she finished an even 6th. I think she’ll be more fit for this start and I think she could get the right kind of trip to win this race. Lets Declare Peace (#6) was covered up in between rivals for most of her last race at this N1X level. When she had a seam to run through, she wasn’t gaining fast enough to take advantage of it, finishing 4th, beaten a little more than three lengths. She’s a six time winner and four of those wins have been at this distance. She showed improvement since joining Asmussen’s mare, and despite the fact that she’s six years old, there’s enough there to think she might have another forward move. 

Race 8:

Three year olds and up are slated to go 1 ⅛ miles in this N2L allowance race. Mackman (#8) was caught three deep all the way around the first turn two weeks ago when he was facing a decent group of winners for the first time. He was shuffled back as they were moving on the turn. He was asked to in between runners, but he was shut off when trying to hit that hole, effectively ending his chance to finish in the money. I don’t think he was going to beat the top two, but I think with a better trip, he could have beaten Game Keeper (#2) for third. I think both Nyquick (#1) and Unload (#9) are going to be battling for the lead, which should set the table for a horse like him, which can sit just off them. I expect a better effort in his second tilt against winners. I also think Media Mogul (#5) is better than his last start. He moved early into a fast face when trying two turns for the first time. He hit the front end and looked good before he started shifting leads and wandering. He made things tight for King Russell (#6), fading to 5th, losing in a four photo for second. The pedigree is there to get the distance, so I think that last race should build fitness. I think he has the ability to get the first run on King Russell, who is more of a bottom of the exacta or trifecta play for me. I’ll include both speed horses, Nyquick and Unload on the C line. Both have some very nice races on their resume. If one defects, I’d likely move the other to the A line. They could be good enough to duel all the way around the track. I’ll protect myself against that scenario, but I think them getting caught is more likely if that plays out. 

Race 9:

The week ends with a state bred $25K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. 14 are entered, but only as many as 12 can go in the nightcap. There is some cheap speed that might make life difficult for the morning line favorite, Snow Flurry (#9), who will likely be even money or less when they go into the starting gate. She just missed last out with $45K state bred maiden claimers. She drops in class again for Brad Cox and figures to be tough. However, I see a steady pattern of improvement from Street Painter (#11), who was less than a length behind the favorite last out. She was also impeded in that race, as she hit two spots of trouble, the first one was minor, but the second one was likely enough to cost her the win. I think there’s a good chance that there’s a faster ½ mile today, than there was last month, which should favor Street Painter. I like the outside draw for her and I see her offering much more value than the Cox filly. Pneuma (#13) came with a bid in that same race, but leveled off to be 4th. She tried two turns last out where she finished a distant third. She comes back to a sprint with more experience and could be a longshot threat if she gets to participate. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 120/538 (22.3%, $1,118.00, $2.08 ROI)