Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 5/5/24 – By Eric Solomon

Only 11 races remain in the 2023-24 Oaklawn Park meet. There’s large fields throughout the program, which could be affected by rain. The late double is strong as The Lake Ouachita Stakes is the featured 10th race of the day. That race is followed by the Trails Ends Starter Allowance allowance race, which is the traditional 1 ¾ mile meet ending race. Once again, horses trained by Timothy Martin will be scratched. After two days where many of the top riders were riding in Louisville, the full complement of riders will be back for the finale, which begins at 12:15 (CT).

As the season winds down, the success of the three year old program at Oaklawn was on full display this weekend at Churchill Downs. The winner of the Kentucky Derby, Mystik Dan, was based at the Fair Grounds over the winter, but he ran in the Smarty Jones, the Southwest, and the Arkansas Derby this winter. The same could be said for Thorpedo Anna, who made her 2024 debut in the Fantasy Stakes here to set her up for a strong winning performance in the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. If you’ve been reading either this blog or the Triple Crown race previews, you know that I’m a big fan of Brian Hernandez’s body of work. So it was certainly no surprise to see that he won both races for Ken McPeek with picture perfect rides.

From a personal perspective, I’ve enjoyed covering this meet, and starting next Saturday, I’ll be providing the same type of coverage throughout the Monmouth Park meet. 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day begins with the first of two divisions of a statebred $50K maiden claiming race going one mile. I’m looking for a rebound effort from Hayahlookatme (#7) in this race. He’s not really bred for two turns, but many are stretching out for the first time and he wants to be forwardly placed. He came up empty in a state bred maiden allowance race last out, but his effort with similar company two back was very good. I don’t think we’ll get the 12-1 morning line figure, but at 8-1 or better, I’ll be glad to roll the dice on him. Mr. Butch (#2) also stretches out for the first time. He tried maiden allowance company in the same race that Hayahlookatme is coming out of. He started last of the 12 that day and made his way through the pack to get up for 4th. He has a little more early foot than he got to show last time, so I think the added distance should work in his favor. He was rolling late with lesser foes in his debut. Jon Court is calling it a career today as this meet comes to an end. He has a handful of longshot runners today, but Mandatory Mission (#4) might have the most upside. He was on the outside looking in yesterday in a maiden claiming sprint yesterday, so this feels like the Plan B race, which I don’t love. His debut wasn’t bad though, as he finished 5th at this. He’s trained by Jinks Fires, who has been a mainstay at this meet for years. Fires has been winless with 49 starters, so this one getting home first would definitely be a storybook kind of ending to this meet. Crabtree (#8) made a little headway before fading in a tough maiden special weight race on the Arkansas Derby undercard. He drops for a barn that does well with dropping horses to maiden claiming races from maiden special weight company. He’s another possibility in what feels like a wide open race that begins the last day of the meet. 

Race 2:

The Early Pick-4 begins with a $30K-$25K N2L claiming race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. Toffee (#5) is the heavy favorite after scratching out of an allowance race yesterday in favor of this softer spot. Asmussen claimed her last out after finishing second with $20K-$18K N2L claimers. She moves up a notch in class, but from a figures perspective, this is a softer field. She’s going to be tough, and she’ll be on my tickets. However, since there is potential rain in the forecast, and her effort in the slop two back was not good, I’ll make Molly of Stratford (#4) my top pick. She had some run last out, but was stymied behind traffic. She did move into second when she was clear, but the runner had already pulled clear. The fact that Contreras moves her up in class a bit shows his confidence in this Tiznow filly. Her two off-track races were awful, but she’s a different horse since those efforts at the very beginning of her career. 

Race 3:

The second division of the $50K maiden claiming race drew a full field of 12. I think this heat is a little more top heavy than the first race. God’s Country (#5) drops in class after a 6th place finish in the Rainbow Stakes last out. He was 3rd in maiden allowance company two starts back when he caught a sloppy course. His lone two turn try came in open maiden special weight company, which is significantly better than the state bred maiden special weight races here. His effort wasn’t awful in comparison to his other efforts. Sunday Spirit (#6) has three straight third place finishes in sprints. He should be able to get the mile, and he’s proven to run well on an off track as well. Great Barrier (#2) is the morning line favorite, using this spot as a Plan B after being scratched yesterday in a sprint. He should be forwardly placed, and the two turn pedigree is there. He’s another live runner in this spot. 

Race 4:

If the two AE’s do not draw into this $18K beaten claiming race, this will in effect be a state bred race. The racing office carded this race with the preference given to Arkansas breds, which led to the twelve runners in the body of the field all being bred in the Natural State. To be eligible to run, a horse must have qualified under the N3L condition, or they have not won a race in the last six months. Doughty (#8) gets the call in this spot after a pair of strong efforts in state bred N2L claiming company. She pulled up two back in allowance company, but she showed last time out that she was no worse for wear when she was an easy 4-5 winner. This is a step up in class, but she likes to be forward and she’d be a definite upgrade on a wet track. I think she ends the meet with a win. Heated Argument (#5) ran poorly in an optional claiming/N1X allowance race for state bred fillies and mares in her last start. She has some big efforts and if she can run back to them with this drop in class, she’s going to be tough to deal with here. Her trainer is 0-29 at the meet, but he does have some live runners. Both Musicmansandy (#13) and Halaga (#14) are worthy of consideration if they draw in. If there’s a defection, they’ll have a chance to crash a state bred party, meaning that even though it appears they’re moving up in class, they really are getting class relief. The class relief is hidden a bit, so there’s a chance that you’ll be able to get fair value on either. 

Race 5: 

I like the progression of two sprints to a route for Charbon (#7) in this maiden special weight contest at one mile. He paired his Beyers in decent races at this condition. I don’t think this group is as strong, so if he moves forward at two turns, I think he’s right in the mix. Luis Quinonez won the last two races on the card yesterday with big prices, triggering a $2 double that paid over $1,100. Coty Rosin has had a tough meet, but he’s a better trainer than his numbers suggest. Ronaldinho (#10) is on the outside while getting back to two turns. He’s been moved to Steve Asmussen’s barn after his first three starts with Peter Miller. His lone two turn try came against a very good field. The winner of that race, Native Land, came back to clear the N1X condition at Keeneland in his subsequent start. He was 7th last out. A few lengths better than Charbon in the same sprint race. He’ll need to work out a trip to win this. Baton Rouge (#4) ran a big race on debut in the slop. I’m not sure how well he’ll run at two turns though. The dam did most of her work at two turns, but she did win two small stakes races at two turns. Her runners thus far have only win in sprints though. I’ll use him as a deeper saver in this spot, while maybe upgrading him if we’re working with an off-track. 

Race 6:

The mid-card Pick-4 begins with a $30K starter allowance race horses that have started for a $30K (or less) tag at least once and have not won twice in the last six months. John Haran is holding a strong hand in this race sending out both I’m Wide Awake (#3) and Top Gunner (#9). While it’s been a while since Top Gunner has found the Winner’s Circle, this is a good spot for him. Haran claimed him two weeks ago for $35K and gets him back one more time before the meet ends. This is a savvy entry because he’s only run for a $30K tag once in his career, which came in his third career start back in 2021. He crushed a $30K maiden claiming field on this oval that day. He’s gone on to run in a series of much tougher races than this and he was competitive in many of them. He was third, beaten only a ½ length in the Grade 2 Phoenix Stakes back in 2022. He has lost a step or two since then, but he can still run. He likes to stalk the pace, so the outside draw is perfect. He’s the morning line favorite, but he figures to be very tough with this group. I’m Wide Awake is the alternative to me in this spot. He faced Skelly as a 50-1 longshot in the Count Fleet Stakes last out. Skelly just came back to win another stakes here yesterday. His game is early speed, but he’s not fast enough to go with a horse like that, so his last place finish came as no surprise. Sometimes races like that can mess with some horses, and they’re not quite the same for a while. Other times, they can jump right back in the pool and be as good as they were. I imagine the directions for Barbosa are going to be to send him, and that wasn’t the worst strategy on this course yesterday. We’ll see if the weather changes the track, but he figures to be the target in this one. 

Race 7:

Three year olds and up are dashing six furlongs in this N2L allowance race. Three runners are coming out of a six horse N1X allowance race here at the beginning of the month, and none of those runners had great trips. Henro (#9) might have had the worst trip, but some of those wounds were self-inflicted. He broke slowly when breaking the from, He was loaded as they went into the turn, but he ran up on the heels of his rivals and was forced to check off heels. He regrouped and came with a late surge on a course that was playing kindly to front end speed. While doing so, he interfered with Excitable Boy (#7), causing that one to steady, and leading to him being disqualified from second to fifth. He ran a big race three starts ago and bounced a bit when facing winners for the first time two back. If the track comes up wet, that will be another new experience for him. He’s the lukewarm favorite, but he’s a B line play for me. I’d like to get better than 3-1 on him in this spot. Congrats on Fifty (#10), who was not in that race, gets the call for me. He’s moving up from restricted claiming company after a strong effort where he was nailed on the wire late last week. This is a quick turnaround, but McLean Robertson trains both him and Excitable Boy. Both want to be forward and he’s the faster gate horse. I expect him to be on the lead, while Arrieta concedes the front and stalks, which is what that one typically wants to do. He’s making his third start of this current form cycle, which is something that he hasn’t yet had a chance to do. I’m expecting a forward move and thinking that he could be tough to run down. Risk It (#8) hasn’t quite lived up to expectations after a monster score at the Spa in his debut last summer. Horses sired by Gun Runner tend to love an off track and his Tomlinson numbers are better than anyone else in here. He was blocked most of the way last time out and was forced to steady in that same race. He’s getting better and he could be much tougher in the rain. Sometimes Asmussen’s runners can be overlooked and if his odds float up, I’ll be playing. Asmussen also sends out Storms Home (#4) coming off a strong debut win at 14-1 here three weeks ago. That was a big time effort at first asking and he has a strong Tomlinson number as well. This is not the easiest field to be facing winners for the first time, but his debut was strong and I think this one has a bright future. 

Race 8:

Three year olds will go 1 1/16 miles in this optional $100K claiming/N1X allowance contest. This is another good field for the last three year old race of the meet. Note that Louisiana bred, El Dinero (#10) was entered in a state bred stakes at Evangeline last night, but he scratched out of that race, presumably in favor of this spot, where the overall purse is $80K higher. He’s a very interesting player in this race. He was a dominating winner of the Crescent City Derby at the Fair Grounds in his last start. Despite being restricted to state bred company, that was a decent field for that renewal, where he was not favored, but he was much the best. He’s raced 9 times in his career, all in state bred races, where he’s never been worse than third at distances ranging from 5 furlongs to 8,5 furlongs. His best career speed figure came in the mud at Delta and Cristian Torres takes the assignment for his debut in open company. He’s a player in this one. Are we really going to get 12-1 on Awesome Road (#1)? At that number, I love him in this spot, but I think 5-1 is the breaking point for me. He was sensational in his debut, but he’s never run back to that race at Ellis. He had a miserable trip in the Southwest when losing to the Derby winner in a sea of slop. He was disappointing in his last when he was 4th when facing some of these. I do think he can handle an off track and I like that Cox gave him 30 days away from the track before working him again. I think we’ll see a better effort from him. Dimatic (#4) may be upgraded in the slop, but regardless, I don’t love him as the favorite in this race. He left himself too much work to do at this level two weeks ago. He broke his maiden impressively in the slop here four starts ago. He tried the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby but wasn’t up to snuff at that level. I’d like to do better than his 5-2 morning line figure because this is a wide open race, but I do think he is well-spotted to do well. 

Race 9: 

Old runners go 1 1/16 miles in this N1X allowance race. If there is a sloppy track, watch out for Southern Sunset (#6), who has been a beast in two wet track starts at this meet. He put up a huge number in January when beating a strong maiden special weight field. He bounced to the moon in his next start when facing a strong group of winners on a fast track. He came back to run for a $40K tag and was an easy winner in the slop once again two back. He dropped for a $30K tag in a N3L claiming race on a fast track and led gate to wire last out. He’s moving up in class and he knows how to win races. If there’s an off track watch out. St Andrews (#12) is a back-up with Paco Lopez riding. He’s going to need to work out a trip from the 12 hole, but Lopez, who hadn’t ridden here in the last five years prior to riding here a few weeks back. He looked like he’s been riding here for years, winning two races with picture perfect rides and finishing third in another. He’ll need to be perfect on this Quality Road gelding, but he fits with this group coming up from open $32K claiming. Recker Point (#7) is also a backup play for me. He was second at this level in his most recent try and he seems to like racing here, despite winning only once in eight tries. I’d like to get a better price than 5-2 because consistency has been a bit of an issue. However, if he runs back to his last race, he’s going to be right there. 

Race 10, The $200K Lake Ouachita Stakes: 

The last stakes race of the meet is for four year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles. I really liked Ain’t Life Grand (#6) in the Essex Stakes at the end of March. I expected him to be less than his best when making his first start of the year in allowance company two starts ago. I did think he was going to take a step forward in the Essex though. Historically, he had run strong races in his second starts off the layoff, but he was definitely flat that day. In hindsight, First Mission is just a better horse than he is, and he proved that with a game win in the Alysheba at Churchill on Friday. While I do worry that he’s just going to be the horse anymore that he was last year, I’m willing to give him one more shot in a race where he;s going to be overlooked. He’s facing a nice field, but many of these runners don’t love to win. I think he sits a good trip and scores here in his third start off the layoff. Law Professor (#1) ships in from New York and now runs for Wade Rarick. He was purchased for $230K at auction after a pair of allowance wins this winter at Aqueduct. That’s a decent amount of money for a six year old gelding, so expectations are going to be high. He has run strong races off the layoff in the past. I except him to secure his rail position and keep Frosted Departure (#3) from running off on the lead. Silver Prospector (#5) remains in decent form after an allowance win and a runner up finish in the Oaklawn Mile last out. He has regressed after running big figures in the past, so I do want to get better than 5-2. At that number, I’ll be trying to beat him, especially in the verticals. I will cover with him though in the multi-race wagers. 

Race 11, The $125K Trails End Starter Allowance Race:

This race is always a tough handicapping challenge, since most horses never run this far in their careers. I do like horses that can be forwardly placed in these races and I think Truculent (#12) could pull off the mild upset in this spot. He’s finished in the money in his last two starts in starter allowance company, but I think he’s better when he goings long. His pedigree tells me he could run all day and I thought his win at nine furlongs at Saratoga last summer was excellent. Manny Esquivel had a great meet this season and winning this race would be a fitting conclusion. Rungius (#11) comes in from New York after a pair of solid efforts in longer races there. Sittin on Go kept on finding when he pulled away from him in a 1 ⅜ mile last out. That one came back to win a starter allowance race at Keeneland in his next start. He’s an improving four year old that seems to be going in the right direction. Big Paper (#1) draws the rail for this marathon after a $16K starter allowance contest victory at the beginning of March. Van Berg gave him a little extra time off that effort. I don’t think an off-track will be a bother to him. Royal Act (#4) might be better on fast footing, but I think he’s another live longshot in this spot. He was claimed by Asmussen, perhaps with an eye on this race. His SoCal form from 2023 was sharp and if he’s able to get back to that, he’ll be dangerous in this spot. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/570 (22.6%, $1,179.60, $2.07 ROI)