Last week ended on a wild card, with Edwin Gonzales taking the early Pick 3 and Gallardo picking up a pair of wins on the card, slowly gaining ground on Gaddiel Martinez’s lead (he only had one win) in the jockey standings . Let’s not waste any time and get the week started with some stakes action on this Presque Isle Downs Monday.
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 6 furlongs, Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 3:30 p.m
If Loan Me A Dime (#1) can translate his workouts into a solid racing effort, Ron Potts might have a monster in the making. This Florida-bred 3-year-old has worked outstandingly over the tapeta, turning a 47.3 work over a half-mile last time out and the rest of his recent work times are equally impressive. Lee The Cabby (#3) has a year on most of this field, and that year of development could make the difference in his first start for leading trainer Kevin Rice. Surely Fuoco (#2), with his several years on this field as a 9-year-old, can figure it out this time right? I do think this race, with many inexperienced maidens, could help this old boy show some good form. Unfortunately I think the #1 is a buzzsaw.
Race 1 selections:1-3-2
RACE 2 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 3:57
The abundance of horses that could really push this pace make me lean towards Shannonia (#3) to pick up the win. He’s looked the part since dropping to the claiming ranks, and proved himself with a win last out coming from seven lengths back to win going away. A 10-1 morning line on Leigh’s Last Hero (#1) seems too good to be true, and I expect those odds to shorten quickly. That being said, he’s done his best running and turned in his best Beyer Speed Figures in the synthetic ring at Gulfstream Park, so a return to (albeit different) tapeta should prove him strong in this spot when combined with the drop from $8,000 to $6,250 in claiming tag. I would be a fool to not mention Turf Cat (#2), who provided Pavel Matejka’s barn their only three finishes in the money. He’s a likely winner and I wouldn’t fault anyone for betting him, but this race has horses that could push the pace even harder than in his three previous starts. I’ll take Gift Exchange (#7) as my third choice here. He loves the track and he loves the distance, and showed the ability to pass last time out. That kind of tactical speed should suit him in this race.
Race 2 selections:3-1-7-2
RACE 3 – 6 ½ furlongs, Allowance Optional Claiming $50,000 Post Time: 4:24
Mitole Magic (#3) came off the layoff looking sharp, and Randall Russell is getting his horses to run back in their second start at a 29% clip. Singling her in a multirace wager would be a great move. If I were to try and beat her, I would go with the widest shot, Candy Reward (#2). I refuse to believe this stakes-winning mare has turned the wrong corner at 5 years old, and I think she misses her old rider Pablo Morales. Brandon Kulp is a high-percentage trainer, and 7-1 on the morning line of a 5-horse field has me thinking that Angel Rodriguez will get her figured out in their third start teaming up.
Race 3 selections:3-2
RACE 4 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $8,500 Post Time: 4:51
I faded Drunk On Sake (#5) last time out and he smoked me at a very short price. I’ll take him here in hopes that he stays in form this time for conditioner Scooter Davis and jockey Israel Rodriguez. Antonio Gallardo climbs back aboard Van (#2), a horse who’s sustained solid form this meet with two wins and a runner-up finish last time out. He caught a very speed-biased track last out and couldn’t pass the winning Neoking, so a less-biased track should suit him (assuming the track is unbiased). Meant To Be Lucky (#3) did not live up to his namesake last out, as he was dropped in a $13k optional claimer with monsters like Faster and Burnin Turf. Returning to the $8,500 tag should do him some good, and he is the only other obvious pacesetter to the field aside from the #5 here.
Race 4 selections:5-2-3
RACE 5 – 5 ½ furlongs, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 5:18
The Spieth duo of jockey Scott and trainer Aldena saddle up Irish Victory (#5), a horse I liked last time out to run better in start number two off the layoff. She finished third that day, only by a half-length, and I still think she has the ability to get it done based on that performance, as well as the class retention. Saratoga Gaze (#4) is the class of the field here though, proving last time that even at 8 she’s still sharp with a win coming from off the pace. Little Lamb Chop (#2) makes the advantageous change to leading jock Gaddiel Martinez, always a welcome sight. This Dialed In mare had to turn for home in the 7-path in her last start, and I don’t foresee her trip going as strangely with Martinez taking the reins. She also drops from a $10k claimer, though that race was against state-bred competition.
Race 5 selections:5-4-2
RACE 6 – 6 ½ furlongs, Claiming $15,000 Post Time: 5:45
Calvary Kat (#2) should be a lock here in any wager you’re planning for or around this race, with her never finishing out of the money going this distance in four starts and only finishing out of the money at Presque Isle twice in 12 starts. Add that to the fact she’s dropping into a $15k claimer with no optional protection from the tag, and the only regret I’d have is that I don’t make enough money to go claim her out of this race. Keep an eye on the class-dropping Anhiga (#5), who Antonio Gallardo opts to ride over other previous mounts he’s had before starting in this race. It could be an indicator, or it could be as simple as who made the phone call to the agent first. I also want to watch Valiant Enya (#1), who drops from allowance company and performed well as a maiden at the $15k tag, though she faces winners here.
Race 6 selections:2-5-1
RACE 7 – 6 furlongs, the Lady Erie Stakes Post Time: 6:12
The midsummer feature at Presque Isle, the $100,000 Lady Erie Stakes sees a massive gate of 10 load the gates. Several high-class operations are going to slug it out with the locals It’s hard to see a world where Presque Isle Debutant and Malvern Rose winner Smooch Up (#8) falls in this race, especially considering she gets the dynamic duo of Ron Potts and Antonio Gallardo, dominators on the Presque Isle scene. This filly by Cupid has also never lost on the Erie tapeta. However, the biggest days should draw the biggest names, and that is made evident with Bill Mott sending out one of the nations top jockeys Junior Alvarado and the Godolphin-bred Quiet Street (#3). This Street Boss filly gets much-needed class relief after several graded tilts against monsters like Cy Fair, Slay The Day and Fitz Right. She slots into this race as a very tough second choice, and I would expect the big names tied to her will draw heavy money, as tends to happen when the big-shots come into town. While I think Inspire Courage (#1) is in a tough spot here, I think she has the ability, especially on the rail, to get a decent trip and potentially sneak into the money with Scott Spieth riding. Keep an eye on a hot Dylan Davis (2 wins at Saratoga on Sunday) and his mount Niche (#9) who struggled in turf races but took two fields gate-to-wire on dirt. It’s yet to be seen what she’ll do on the synthetic surface.
Race 7 selections:8-3-1-9
RACE 8 – 5 ½ furlongs, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 6:39
Lightning Lane (#1) should be tough on the lead under the hold of Victor Severino and could take this field all the way to the wire. Wesley Ward makes his season debut at Presque Isle with Dedos (#3), boasting the highest last-out Beyer Speed Figure of the group and a solid jockey in Pietro Moran. Martina Rojas has been on a roll lately with several multi-win days, and so I’ll slot in her mount Rock Tune (#8) for third.
Race 8 selections:1-3-8
I’m looking forward to another great stakes card, as the last few we’ve seen had great racing and some great payouts as well. I hope to see you back here tomorrow for more Presque Isle Downs handicapping!
