Happy July 3rd, everyone! Let’s not waste any time and jump into this special Friday Presque Isle Downs card, featuring the Karl Boyle Stakes.
RACE 1 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $13,500 Post Time: 12:30
I think it’s very possible that Puttheblameonme (#1) returns to the track in good order, sporting the meet’s leading rider Antonio Gallardo and turning in consistent training times for Ron Potts, Jr. This horse has also never run out of the money at Presque Isle in seven starts. Shortening up by a half-furlong will suit Top Recruit (#4) well, after coming in 4th by just under two lengths in his last start to a horse named Fadethenoise, who’s in the midst of a crazy winning streak.
Race 1 selections: 1-4
RACE 2 – 6 furlongs, Maiden Claiming $7,500 Post Time: 12:57
The class drop for Violin Fingers (#5) is a move I think will suit this gelding well. He was well-beaten in his last race and should be more suited to the lower claiming tag. Frenchman James (#4) enters the Henry Miller barn and posted a 46.3 second work over 4 furlongs, and with the rest of this field not really catching my eye, I’m willing to slot him in second for his 8-1 morning line. Nicole’s Will (#6) falls into third for me based on her speed figures over the tapeta last fall before shipping south to Tampa Bay Downs. She should be a game third if my top pair run like I think they will.
Race 2 selections: 5-4-6
RACE 3 – 6 furlongs, Starter Optional Claiming $25,000 Post Time: 1:24
I see no reason to go against front-runner Diamond Dust (#1), who led a horse named Heavy Pour the whole 6 furlongs around last time out. Heavy Pour went on to win his race yesterday. I have some interest in Fivefive Six Champ (#5), who hasn’t started on the tapeta for quite some time. His 3 starts netted 2 close third place finishes, leading me to believe he’ll enjoy a long-overdue return to the all-weather.
Race 3 selections: 1-5
RACE 4 – 1 mile, 70 yards, Maiden Claiming $7,500 Post Time: 1:51
Channel Me In (#3) ran much improved in her most recent start, placing third by 2 and a half lengths. She’s also ran third twice at this distance. I think she takes the next step forward to a winning effort in this race. I can’t ignore Cole’s Valentine (#4) in this spot, given her relative inexperience, nor can I ignore the $6.06 ROI that Ralph Baez has in extending his sprinters to route efforts. Hope Rising (#5) falls to third because I think Gallardo and Scooter Davis can turn this filly around in her third start at the new barn.
Race 4 selections: 3-4-5
RACE 5 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 2:18
The only horse that rises to the top for me here is Mistral Wind (#3), a horse who took her last field wire to wire but now adds more ground to her trip. She won’t get the pace scenario she wants because I think there is enough pressure in this race from other runners to make her work for it, but lowering in class alleviates these concerns somewhat. Silent Diva (#7) slots into second as a hunch play, beaten only 3 and a half lengths in a second place effort last time out. I’m willing to look the other way on Matthew Kintz’s record of bringing horses back off of 61-180 day layoffs to play Missus Seki (#9) in third. I don’t trust this field, so if you have a hunch or an angle I didn’t talk about, play it.
Race 5 selections: 3-7-9
RACE 6 – 6 furlongs, Allowance Optional Claiming $40,000 Post Time: 2:45
If Mitole Magic (#1) shows her old form, she doesn’t lose this race. She faced a tough field in the Masters Stakes last October, and as I’ve said, trainer Randall Russel has a good record with turning these long layoffs into winning efforts for his horses. Jill Jitterbug (#3) has been knocked by the morning-line maker for her last two turf starts, but has good numbers on the all-weather at Turfway Park. She could be overlooked as a price in this field. Strike D’Oro (#7) showed she didn’t lose any speed when she turned 3, wiring a field last time out. I think she should be quick enough for third here.
Race 6 selections:1-3-7
RACE 7 – 6 furlongs, Karl Boyes Stakes Post Time 3:12
A field of eight males aged 3 and older line up for the Karl Boyes Stakes. I like the track record Nobals (#5) keeps over the Erie tapeta, counting a win and two second-place efforts in three starts. He nearly won at Churchill Downs going 5 ½ furlongs on the grass, showing his form is still as tough as ever. I’ll fade Mark Casse’s runner Victory Achieved (#8) to second, even though Casse calls on top Finger Lakes rider Keiber Coa to climb in the saddle. Joseph Orseno’s Horsepower (3), one of two entries he has in the race, has the class and speed figures to compete with this field, if not win the race. I’ll slot him in as a good show bet for my purposes.
Race 7 selections: 5-3-8
RACE 8 – 6 furlongs, Allowance Post Time: 3:39
I tipped her before, and I don’t think much has changed for Stylet (#3), a horse who hasn’t finished worse than second since landing in Matthew Kintz’s barn. Rock Hard Rose (#4) comes in from Woodbine to run this race and should be a tough beat here, but I expect her to come up short. I still believe in Wherever We Are (#9), though I won’t be using her for my win bet. A 71 speed figure last time out makes her a competitor. Keep an eye on 6-1 Oklahoma Smoke (#2) raising class but coming off a blowout 6 length win.
Race 8 selections: 3-4-9-2
That’ll be all from me this week. We’re catching a quick turnaround, but the cards should be consistently Monday through Wednesday for the rest of the summer. Stay cool and hydrated, wherever you are in the world, and see you for Monday’s selections!
