I had a good bounceback on Wednesday, picking up three wins and having horses in the right spots. Hopefully I can build on that momentum with this special July 4th schedule.
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $12,500 Post Time: 3:30 p.m
A tough first race to sort through despite the short field of five. Bigonzetti (#5) sticks out as a horse consistently on the lead and sporting high-percentage connections, trained by Ron Potts and jockeyed by leading rider Antonio Gallardo. I expect Cousin Ed (#1) to show some strength, returning to synth nicely in a winning effort at this level. I’m not sure how interested I am in morning-line favorite Irish Stone (#3). The class is obviously there and the speed figures are the highest in this field, but sprinting at this distance, he only has the second place in his last race that’s notable. It could be that the #3 makes a great single to kick off Daily Doubles and Pick-3’s. I’ll go against him today.
Race 1 selections:5-1
RACE 2 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 3:57
The second race will be very dependant on the break, with multiple front-end type horses wanting the lead. It’s hard to tell if anyone is going to come from out of it, so I’m going to go with Del Rayo (#5) to get the jump and head for the rail to save ground. I think being just inside of Driftwood (#6) is the ticket for this gelding to get the lead and take the win. I think #6 is the only other real threat in this race, so he’ll slot into second for me. It’s very likely that Bahama Channel (#3) has lost a step, but I think he can run good enough for third here.
Race 2 selections:5-6-3
RACE 3 – 1 mile 70 yards, Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 4:24
The big names are coming out for this one. The field of five is headlined by Shug McGaughey’s Peak Performer (#2), a well-fought horse whose best efforts have come over the Gulfstream and Turfway all-weather. The only real concern for him is that he might actually want more ground, but his class should speak for itself. I’ll pencil in Miguel Clement’s first-time starter Squeeze Play (#5) in for second. Clement’s first-time starters are firing at 26%.While this horse’s morning works haven’t looked the best, I’ll still put my trust in Clement’s Presque Isle runners at my own risk.
Race 3 selections:2-5
RACE 4 – 1 mile, Claiming $12,500 Post Time: 4:51
The numbers for Scooter Davis and Halon (#4) paint a very clear picture of where the horse to beat is. If you can get a piece of this horse at his morning line of 9-2, take it and run, though I suspect he goes off shorter at post time. He’s turned the most consistent Beyer Speed Figures of the group, Davis is 33% in turning these horses around off the claim and a whooping 57% with a horse in their second start from a layoff. Getting Gallardo in the irons is a cherry on top. That being said, last time Via Della Spiga (#2) was at this claiming tag, he romped to win by nearly 7 lengths. He should run well given the class drop today. I don’t have much interest in Rachman (#1) unless the post bias I noted last week reappears with a track that’s taken on some rainwater, so I’ll fill my selections out with Makoa (#3). I suspect this horse will run on for third with some good late pace numbers, but his BSF’s leave something to be desired here.
Race 4 selections:4-2-3
RACE 5 – 6 furlongs, Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 5:18
Past the midpoint of the card here comes another maiden race with some tough reads. I think there’s a lot of room for speculation, which is why I’m taking 8-1 Fuoco (#2) to finally break his maiden in this race. The 9-year-old gelding didn’t see Presque Isle action till near the end of the meet, and didn’t showcase his best running. He’s trained very consistently over the Fair Hills training track, and he could be very fresh off the layoff. War Profiteer (#4) looks to be the threat on training times alone, and could be a monster in the making for the Scooter Davis barn. Consistently turning 47 second workouts over 4 furlongs will drive the money to this horse, I’m sure of it, and Israel Rodriguez is one of the meets leading riders. For third, I’ll slot in Missionattheglen (#3), more of a speculation that this horse blooms on the tapeta after two dismal starts at Finger Lakes.
Race 5 selections: 2-4-3
RACE 6 – 6 furlongs, Allowance Optional Claiming $35,000 Post Time: 5:45
I was watching Aqueduct’s closing day (rest in peace Big A, I spent a lot of time watching that track when I should have been doing schoolwork, it’s the track I picked my first winner at too, Flood Zone in the Gotham, but lets move on) and Andy Serling said something on the broadcast I immediately jotted down in my notes; “Never bet on a horse doing something new that it’s never done before as the post time favorite.” He certainly couldn’t have known that Amberia (IRE) (#3) was making her first start on tapeta after campaigning on turf and is listed as the morning line favorite. Should the morning line hold true, I don’t want anything to do with her betting-wise (watch her scratch and make this massive block of text irrelevant). If the pace is as hot as it looks on paper, I think Inspire Courage (#1) is the most likely to withstand the early speed and still make it back to the wire. She was only beaten by a length and a quarter in her last start, to a very classy and consistent 4-year-old named Stylet. Oh Sheila (#2) comes out of the same race as the #1 and I expect her to build on that career high Beyer of 61. A price on the board that interests me is Endless Glory (#6), facing winners for the first time. If she can get a more stalking trip against the speed, I think she could run well, though there are safer horses to use in the exotic pools.
Race 6 selections: 3-1-6
RACE 7 – 6 furlongs, Allowance Post Time: 6:12
Utopian (#1) turned his two best speed figures on the Turfway synth, so this drop in class and a return to his preferred surface should suit him nicely. I have hope that Thorn Of Hearts (#5) hasn’t taken too big of a step back over his layoff and his most recent start. If he can reach his ceiling again, he’ll be a threat to win this. Venik (#4), should he run 14 days back, is the only horse consistent enough I’d trust for third and use in any multirace wager.
Race 7 selections:1-5-4
RACE 8 – 1 mile, Maiden Claiming $15,000 Post Time: 6:39
I suspect Starship Discovery (#8) will be ready to run after a fractious pre-race led her to unseating her jockey last time out, leaving her as a nonrunner. It’s really hard to look away from Scooter Davis and Antonio Gallardo when they team up, but I’ll put this first-time starter Chalant (#4) into the second hole here despite her sire Echo Town having a 24% win rate with progeny on all-weather sprints. I’d be scared to leave him off any multirace ticket though, because if I’m still alive I want that wager to go all the way. Caparbia (#3) should have done some growing up during the layoff, and I’m willing to hedge on that with this price. Go wide here, especially if you want to land those pick-4 and pick-5 wagers.
Race 8 selections:8-4-3
Special week this week, so I won’t be back with Tuesday selections because Presque Isle isn’t running. Never fear, because there are cards Thursday and Friday! So, I hope to see you back here for the Wednesday card!
