This summer stretch picks up speed as it goes on through the heart of July. I picked up a few wins on the card yesterday, and hopefully you did as well. Let’s pick up where we left off and get into this marathon card for Tuesday.
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 1 mile, Claiming $10,000 Post Time: 3:30 p.m
Opening the card with a short field of state-bred horses. Eastern Sunrise (#2) has the reliable routing form that I don’t see in some of these other horses, leading me to put some more trust into this one. She’s The Rage (#3) is interesting at the 8-1 line, though conditioner John Fenessey hasn’t successfully converted a turf runner to a winning effort in their first start on the synth before, with 19 previous attempts at it warding me off using this horse for the win.
Race 1 selections:2-3
RACE 2 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 3:57
I think Gun Policy (#1) should be a bettable price as he faces winners for the first time. His maiden win came over this distance and the speed figures reflect that he has more to give when up against this competition. Roaring Rapids (#2) is switching from turf to tapeta for the first time, but sometimes a surface change can be overcome through sheer strength, something this Hard Spun gelding might be able to accomplish in this spot. Youreawizard Harry (#6) should look the part if he’s kept closer to the leaders, if he can break from the gate well.
Race 2 selections:1-2-6
RACE 3 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 4:24
Traveller (#4) feels like a given in this spot, but I’d watch the board if I was playing this race in real time. I feel like he could take money, making the good bets fall elsewhere here. On paper, Langstaff Road (#5) is the only one capable of keeping up with him, though he’s run behind the #4 in his last two starts. Noble Star (#6) knows how to get the win at this distance, though he faces much tougher company compared to his last race.
Race 3 selections:4-5-6
RACE 4 – 1 mile, Claiming $12,500 Post Time: 4:51
We’re staying long distance on this Tuesday with this claiming race. Prototype (#4) seems to be in top form, winning his last two starts under Israel Rodriguez and turning a half-mile work in 48.2 seconds. There is stiff competition in Thirteen G’s (#5) though, who took to the tapeta like a fish to water for the always-dangerous Linda Rice barn. If he runs back to his last race, it’s as good as over for this field. The class drop for D’oro Lemon (#2) makes him live here, with speed figures in his past that could compete with this group, as well as getting meet-leading rider Gaddiel Martinez in the saddle.
Race 4 selections:4-5-2
RACE 5 – 1 1/16 miles,Starter Optional Claiming $13,000 Post Time: 5:18
This race closes out the All-Route Pick 5. The appropriately named Faster (#2) is on a two-win streak and if he runs it back again, this field is outmatched. Burnin Turf (#6) has to be getting frustrated, going from being a victim of Van’s winning streak to potentially getting caught up in another horse’s glory days. If you’re going to play against the chalk, this is the horse you want. Brendan Gilmartin has had an exceptional time with horses on the Erie synth this year, counting 2 wins and 3 seconds in 6 starts. I look for Jimmy The Hat (#5) to keep Gilmartin in the money, especially since around this time last year was when this horse was firing on all cylinders.
Race 5 selections:2-6-5
RACE 6 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $12,500 Post Time: 5:45
Moving into the only sprint of the day (which is seriously incredible, I applaud the Presque Isle bookmakers for trying something like this). I have a lot of interest in Pink Channel (#4) should she sit at the 10-1 morning line or drift further. Oftentimes horses don’t like the Mountaineer dirt for one reason or another, and I’m banking on the cutback helping her too. That being said, it would be foolish of me to go against Linda Rice twice in the same card, so my top pick is Ohoopee (#5), though there are horses here that are capable of winning this, on their good days at least. Pencil in Miss Thalia (#3) for third, with solid form shown in her last two starts.
Race 6 selections:5-4-3
RACE 7 – 1 mile 70 yards, Allowance Optional Claiming $40,000 Post Time: 6:12
Back to the routing to close out the late Daily Double. I think Stylet (#3) has immense upside here at 4-1, especially given her second place effort (on turf) going a mile. Gaddiel Martinez has never run worse than second with this horse since he took the reins in January, and that repertoire should serve the duo well stretching to this distance. Brendan Walsh sends out Contrary (#5), a horse coming out of stiff company at Churchill Downs. I have some interest in this horse with a 9-2 morning line and the fact she’s had a start over Gulfstream’s synth course. Ms Brightside (IRE) (#4) should also be competitive in this spot after proving herself in her first Presque Isle start with a win and a 68 Beyer Speed Figure.
Race 7 selections:3-5-4
RACE 8 – 1 mile 70 yards, Allowance Post Time: 6:39
Closing out this route-heavy card with a state-bred allowance. Typically I’d frown upon a shorter priced horse making their first start over the all-weather, but with several runners in this race doing just that, it feels like an inevitability. Justifiable Steel (#4) seems the likeliest to make the transition a winning one, with Justify progeny firing on synth routes a massive 20% of the time. This chestnut filly has also run back to back winning efforts, though only has made one start this year. Xmas In Cairo (#8) also feels like she’ll run well in this spot after a string of impressive speed figs over the grass at Penn National. Surely Omikami (#6) will figure it out this time right? Right? She’s been on a steady decline since moving to Brendan Kulp’s stable, but I want to believe in her. Unfortunately I believe more in Inanna’s Quest (#2) to take another step forward with Scott Spieth in the irons again.
Race 8 selections:4-8-2-6
In eight Monday races, no trainer won twice, but Scooter Davis picked up the win he needed to tie Kevin Rice for the lead in the trainer’s standings. Gaddiel Martinez was the only rider to pick up multiple wins with 2, so he creeps away slightly from Antonio Gallardo. The bad news is, 7 of the 8 races for this upcoming card are routes, and Gallardo is winning route races at a 25% clip and finishing in the money at a mind-boggling 72%, so a big day might be incoming for Gallardo. Scooter Davis could see a big day as a trainer as well, winning 45% with his synthetic route horses at this meet. It’s sure to be interesting at Presque Isle, and don’t forget to come back for Wednesday selections here at ITM.
