Light action to close this week, with a card featuring some lighter fields. This card could either be a dream or a nightmare as the depths of trainers’ barns are tested due to the added race date last week for Independence Day. This could offer some opportunities to play slimmer multirace wagers and a shot to get creative in the exotics pool without breaking the bank. I was able to nail half the winners yesterday with my article, including the late Pick-3 sequence, so let’s keep up the momentum and get into this card.
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 6 furlongs, Maiden Claiming $7,500 Post Time: 3:30 p.m
There’s a lot of room to hedge on improvement here, while the two favorites offer stability in their last out Beyer Speed Figures. Red Drapes (#6) had some great works over the tapeta before her narrow loss in her synth debut going a mile 70 yards, but I’d rather see her tackle a mile race instead of the dramatic cutback. She’s a fade for me in this spot. The proven sprinter and 9-5 morning line favorite Hot Gamer (#3) is correctly priced here after a second place effort in her first tapeta start, though there isn’t much money to be made from her crossing the wire first. Here’s hoping I can put some higher prices underneath. Assuming the Spieth duo of jockey Scott and trainer Aldana don’t take money, Burn It All (#2) is my second selection. This is a horse who didn’t show her workout times on the track last out when running 4th behind the #3, but there should be expected improvement in the second start off the long layoff. For a similar reason, I’m putting Foggy Bar Blues (#5) in third with the hopes that this Fog Of War filly shows more interest in being a racehorse in her second career start.
Race 1 selections:3-2-5-6
RACE 2 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 3:57
I can nearly guarantee without looking back at my previous articles that I tipped Drunk On Sake (#1) in his last race, where he was done early and finished a whopping 37 lengths behind the field. My heart will be with him (and my money) but I can’t in good faith tip him for the win after that effort, unless of course it was a paid workout to get him fit to run back here. It’s hard to look away from the horse one gate over, R Admiral (#2) who won by 8 lengths at this distance and at this class. Running back to that effort would spell trouble for the rest of this field, and I like the 7-2 morning line for a whiff of value. Camilo (#3) is a horse who has run in the money four times in five starts at this distance, a trend I like to see at these route races. Katy Cheeks calls on Antonio Gallardo to ride, one of the top riders in this jockey colony. Tempus (#4) might have lost a step at 9 years old, but the old boy should still be classy enough to run in the money.
Race 2 selections:2-3-4-1
RACE 3 – 6 furlongs, Allowance Optional Claiming $25,000 Post Time: 4:24
This state-bred optional claiming is a battle of new-school versus old-school, with multiple runners emerging from the 3-year-old restricted Malvern Rose Stakes to run here. A Case Of You (#3) went on a four race win streak last year, but all that ended with her first start this year, a third place effort to Thank You Amy (#4). Scooter Davis’s barn has been hot all meet and his horses are firing at an insane 44% winrate when running in their second race off a long layoff. The aforementioned Thank You Amy returns to a more comfortable distance after showing how much she doesn’t like 6 and a half furlongs, but I’ll put her in third and opt for Triple R Rated (#2) to run second. This horse will most likely need a start before she’s ready to win again, but I’m opting for age before beauty with this pick. Her experience will send these precocious 3-year-olds back to their nursemares.
Race 3 selections:3-2-4
RACE 4 – 1 mile, Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 4:51
If Red Drapes (Race 1) runs a big effort in her race, then Channel Me In (#4) could be the ticket here. I’m shocked that even though her last out Beyer of 42 was at a lower class, she still catches a 12-1 morning line here. Brittany Russel brings in Drive By Johnny (#1) and gets Gallardo in the irons. I hate to say it, but this horse could take a step back with the surface change and still probably win this race. While there isn’t much to get excited about looking at the performance of Double Up Larry (#5), I tend to favor the Candy Ride sire tree and this horse has performed remarkably better in his two route starts. I’ll look for him to run well going longer again today.
Race 4 selections:4-1-5
RACE 5 – 5 furlongs, $5,000 Post Time: 5:18
Irish Victory (#5) drops from a $10k optional claimer into a class she can win at, and definitely will look fit to run in her second start from the layoff for the Aldana Spieth barn. Miss M M (#2) has decent speed figures in her first two starts at Presque Isle but circled 6-wide for second last time out. If she gets a better trip, she becomes a threat here. The last time Red Hot Spark (#6) faced the all-weather was at Gulfstream Park, she turned a respectable 53 BSF, and if she shows the same affinity for the Erie tapeta, she’ll be dangerous with Walber Alencar in the irons.
Race 5 selections:5-2-6
RACE 6 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $10,000 Post Time: 5:45
A tough field here, full of horses who have beaten each other several times. After getting smoked by an allowance dropper on Tuesday, I’m not overlooking the morning-line fav Fleur Delacor (#1), who comes from two strong Penn National turf sprints. Her numbers over the synthetic earn her favoritism on the tote board. I’m Heading East (#4) at a morning line of 10-1 is simply absurd after she beat several horses here two starts ago but failed to menace last time out. She should be much improved this time out. That being said, I also like the recent form of Rock N Reward (#2), but after a winning run, I’d assume a step back is in order, based on how her past performances seem to fluctuate.
Race 6 selections:1-4-2
RACE 7 – 1 mile 70 yards, Allowance Optional Claiming $40,000 Post Time: 6:12
It’s very hard to get around morning line favorite Grounded (#4) in this spot, with his speed figures, recent win and class drop indicating that he’s going to crush this field. The Medaglia d’Oro progeny has 11 wins and 3 seconds in 17 starts going the distance, as well as 21 finishes in the money at Presque Isle in 27 starts. If I had to select a horse to beat him, He’s A Mess (#5) seems the likeliest candidate after winning his last start and having Beyers in his past performance that could compete with the #4 in this spot.
Race 7 selections:4-5
RACE 8 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 6:39
It should be easy to fade the favored Party At The Beach (#4) in this spot based on his 6 furlong record, with one 3rd place to show in 6 starts and nothing else. Shannonia (#5) feels much more likely with consistent results at the distance, as well as sporting some of the best speed figures over the tapeta in the field. He also faced a horse two starts ago that I had in the right spot Tuesday called King Mendelssohn, who just won again. Ramblin Bets (#7) drops in class and should look quick again with the tag drop. I struggled on who to slot in for third until I saw that Duck Hunter (#3) worked a fiery 35.4 second work over 3 furlongs, and that’s all I needed to see to put him up for show. He parlayed flashy morning efforts with a 3rd place run with a higher claiming tag, so I’ll be interested to see what he does here.
Race 8 selections:5-7-3
In the jockey standings, Gaddiel Martinez captured 2 wins and 2 second place runs while Antonio Gallardo continued to sit cold with no finishes in the money. Martina Rojas is the jockey to watch, winning multiple races the past two days. See you next week for more Presque Isle Downs handicapping!
