Prince of Wales Stakes 2020 – Coatney Review

The second jewel of the Canadian Triple Crown is Tuesday night with the Prince of Wales Stakes and $400k up for grabs. What better story to follow than Mighty Heart, the improbable longshot who got the lead and repelled every foe in the first leg, The Queen’s Plate. Tuesday night should be another great test for these three year olds. Will Mighty Heart wire the field? Will Clayton get redemption? Will there be a new face who steals this second jewel? Let’s dive in and try to find a winner!

Fort Erie, Race 8: Prince of Wales Stakes $400k 9.5f (run on the dirt) – 5:37PM (ET)

I have a pretty good race shape in my head. Considering Mighty Heart went wire-to-wire last out, I assume the logicals like Clayton and Tecumseh’s War will try and send from their far post positions and establish position early. If the three of these horses hook up on the backstretch, this opens up perfectly for my longshot play of the day.

  • #1 Truebelieve (30-1) Gave up the lead in the first few hundred yards of the Queen’s Plate to Mighty Heart and the rest was history. There are some things to like on the resume that might be sneaky (see 12/4/2019 replay – closed into slow fractions and almost caught Dotted Line). I think this bunch is going to be too fast early for this one to keep on terms, especially at the 9.5 furlongs. Longshot underneath consideration to run third or fourth.
  • Most Logical, Second Choice #2 Mighty Heart (7/5) Last time was the time? I did love this runner for the Queen’s Plate, but even I have to admit that was a perfect trip with minimal pace pressure on the front end. TimeForm US backs that theory up by showing blue coding for the first section of the race. Assuming a repeat of last running, Truebelieve will yield the rail and it’s Mighty Heart with a projected perfect trip again. Expect this one to press the issue early and be on the lead.
  • #3 Dotted Line (8-1) Having run nine times, we have a pretty good idea the ceiling for this horse’s performance. Should travel in the front pack and push the issue with Mighty Heart. Drawing the post right next to the heavy favorite could cause problems on the backstretch if Stein decides to try to pass Mighty Heart. If this happens, we don’t know if Mighty Heart can repeal an early bid and the late closers in this bunch. Dotted Line today looks like a winner or run out type, so will be leaving off all horizontal and vertical tickets.
  • #4 Red Mercury (30-1) Last two turf tries were a bit dull, even with the pace setup two back. Will try to close and circle the field today, but there’s others in this field that excite me with that running style. Could be a contender in 3rd and 4th spots.
  • Exotic Use, Third Choice #5 Enchant Me (20-1) Last out overcame a bit of an adverse trip, closing into the pace setup that ultimately Muskoka Giant capitalized on. The interesting replay angle was that Enchant Me looked to want to run even longer after the gallop out. The workout pattern suggests this one is going to be fit and ready to win. The jockey change to Contreras should shake things up and yield a good trip.
  • Best Value/Top Choice #6 Bold Victory (12-1) Last was seen when Might Heart got his first victory. Made a subtle early move to establish position and then another one to try and break the race apart. Ran a solid effort all-in-all. Had a much worse trip that Mighty Heart. Was pushed wide and got stuck back an extra 3-4 lengths on a day where being close was best. But what is curious is the layoff after that effort… and we love that! After such a strong effort, Cassee gives this one some rest but still recording workouts. This almost $500k purchase for Oxley is going to be ready to run the best race of his life. The pace will be assured to be hot with all eyes on Mighty Heart (as mentioned above), providing a great pace scenario for Bold Victory. Expect this one to grab the rail in the second pack 5-6 lengths off the lead and come storming home late. Last note, this runner is one of only two entered today to run over dry dirt. That TimeForm US figure earned was STRONG, traveling wide and showing good quicken – and that was off a 6 month layoff. All systems go and we’re wagering on anything at or over 7-1.
  • #7 Tecumseh’s War (4-1)  Yes, this one has finished ahead of Mighty Heart in the past, but had the better trip than Mighty Heart on that day. The wide post draw for this race will certainly yield being stuck wide. The value line for this horse sits at 10-1.
  • #8 Muskoka Giant (12-1) Closer running style that will be far back early. The last race was a flattered by the rail skimming ride. Two back benefited from a dream pace setup, swooping wide and free running for one long sustained bid. Prefer #5 Enchant Me in this spot.
  • #9 Clayton (5/2) Everything stands true from what we route for the Queen’s Plate, “Another horse who hasn’t faced much adversity drawing no wider than the four post in all four starts. Today gets the widest of all, way out in the 12 post. Has the tactical speed but don’t trust at the 2-1 price.” Again draws wide and will have to overcome a trip.

Leave a Reply

Further reading