Normally, we send out grid picks from all the shows we do to our In the Money Plus subscribers. But today, for Florida Derby, I’m going to include my full notes along with JK’s official picks in this write-up for the ITM site. I’ll also embed the link to the show at the bottom for convenience, if you’re interested to listen.
As far as my own wagering, I’ll probably pass on the Pick Six Saturday at Gulfstream in favor of the late Pick Five, but since the kickoff race is the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, I’ll start my analysis there.
Race 9 (G2 GP Oaks)
#4 FIVE G overcame a potentially tricky post in the Honeybee to get a good trip overall, just going down to the talented Quietside, who returns to action on Saturday at Oaklawn. She’s got the speed to be up in the early mix but has also shown the ability to pass runners, something that could be useful here should one of her rivals go on a mission. She’s improved mightily for dirt and might go on improving.
B
#3 THE QUEENS MG is a winning kind (4 for 8 lifetime) and looks the best of the rest. My only issue with her is that she’s never run a particularly fast race, but she’s classy enough to keep on side.
Jk
A
4-3
B
6
Race 10
#3 LOVE CERVERE managed to run a new top figure last time despite notable trouble heading into the first turn. There is room for her to get a lot better in just her third lifetime start. We’ll see who ends up in the irons with Tyler Gaffalione sidelined.
#10 CLASSIC Q could benefit from the hold-up tactics Joel Rosario is so good at with other speed potentially signed on to his inside. She recovered nicely last time after appearing rank early and is another I expect to run better in this spot.
JK
3-2
Race 11
#4 KNIGHTSBRIDGE’s last run was better than it looked. Mike Welsh of DRF noted that the rail he was dueling on last time was deep and unfavorable. Things set up perfectly for the winner there, but this time it looks like Knightsbridge can shake loose.
B
I may throw one backup line on #1 HOWGREATISNATE because I was impressed by the last run against a runaway winner when he was closing into blue fractions on a track that seemed to favor speed. Perhaps he can come running for a small slice or take advantage if the race falls apart.
JK
4-8-9
Race 12
#11 FIVE TOWNS could be interesting at a price. The post isn’t what you’d have picked for her but she might just have enough tactical foot to work out a trip. I like her blend of speed and stamina and she looks ready to roll off this freshening.
#6 BREATH AWAY should be rolling late and there’s a chance this pace could boil over. I think one of these two will prove the best closer.
B
I think there’s a sneaky chance that #10 OCEAN CLUB could prove the best speed after being ridden very inefficiently last time. I also want her on side at what could be a price.
#3 VINA ARANA is one JK talked me into if you listen to the excellent case he made on the show.
JK
3-4-6-9-10-11-12
Race 13
I give #9 MAJOR DUDE an edge in this spot though I worry about the market going crazy for him when he doesn’t necessarily have to win. Still, he’s a Grade 2 type against listed runners and should work out a good trip.
B
As far as backups, I think you can spread around a bit. 7-6-11.
Runners like #6 ABRUMAR and #11 ICE CHOCOLAT are obvious on figures and form, but I’ll also look to include #7 SEMIOLE CHIEF who has improved for turf and has a progressive profile. Could prove best of speed and hang on. Might even upgrade to an A in some ticket runs.
JK
9-11
Race 14 (Grade 1 Florida Derby
Read my whole writeup here and while you’re at it, here’s my H x H guide to the Arkansas Derby.
JK
10-4
