PTF’s G2 City of Hope Analysis (Nightcap Cal Crown Day)

Saturday’s nightcap is the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile, a Win-and-You’re-In race for the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Let’s examine the field from the rail out.

#1 DU JOUR is a Grade 1 winner who has taken down multiple graded stakes and defied the expectations of what a Bob Baffert turf horse looks like. He hasn’t been at his best this season and since I’ve rarely been with him during his good runs of form, I don’t see a lot of point in jumping on the bandwagon now. A contender on his class, surely, but only a deep backup for me.

#2 IRIDEO finished eighth in the common race and has consistently seemed just a little outclassed at this level.

#3 JOHANNES will be a heavy favorite here and it’s easy to see why – he’s been imperious in victory at similar level in the last three starts. He should be able to get a similar trip to last time, just in behind the vanguard on a pace that projects to be even or a little on the slow side. He’s a major contender, there’s no debating that, but I’m also not quite sure he has the edge that the Beyer figures suggest. A clear A, but not my top pick or a horse I’m willing to go to war with alone.

#4 PACKS A WAHLOP looks the potential pacesetter, though that designation could also go to Conclude. Wahlop has packed anything but that in the stretch in the last two against allowance foes and this is obviously much tougher. Has a puncher’s chance if left alone on the lead but I think he’ll face pressure and capitulate.

#5 EASTER looked a major contender for a race like this based on his “Janus” starts – the last in ’23 and the first in ’24. The issue is he’s seemingly been in decline since. He always breaks poorly and this doesn’t look like an ideal pace set up for a late runner. He has races that could win but I’d want double-digit odds. C-type.

#6 TRIKARI is an appealing horse in this spot. This progressive (getting better and better) three-year-old has shown a lot this season, winning four times with his career best coming with a stylish effort in the Secretariat (second-place finisher has since franked the form). He should find himself in a good spot in behind the speed. On Beyers, he’s not as fast as Johannes, but between my questions about that one and his improving profile, I think he can beidge the gap and get the W – no trickery needed.

#7 ASTRONOMER could be an interesting longshot to include in some combinations. He’s not a winning sort – no victories in more than a year – but his figures might stand up with these. Could be invited into the race a little earlier, too, just from looking at the pace map. Tried hard last time against the flow and he should be a bigger price in this spot. B/C.

#8 ALMENDARES was considerably more against the flow in the common race than Astronomer was, and he finished ahead of him. The run two back was excusable as he moved early into the fast pace there. I like him as a horse but he needs several things to happen – the pace will need to be fast, plus Johannes and Trikari will need to underperform. I’m going to call him a B-type.

#9 CONCLUDE just managed to hang on last time with an easy trip. He could prove to be best speed here, presumably sitting just off the 4 and moving past him entering the home bend. The issue today is that there will then be a firing line in behind him. Cool horse I loved last race as listeners know, but I think that was the time you wanted to have him.

VERDICT: Top pick is #6 TRIKARI and I’ll press him. In some spots I’ll try to lock this one up with him and #3 JOHANNES. On some deeper spreads, I’ll include #8 Almendares