In 2021, the Fair Grounds added the Gun Runner Stakes to bolster their local road to the Kentucky Derby series. So far, both winners of this race have gone on to start in the Derby. Epicenter won this race and used it to launch his highly successful three year old season, which included four graded stakes wins (Risen Star, Louisiana Derby. Jim Dandy, and Travers), along with second place finishes in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Last year, Jace’s Road won this race, and while he didn’t experience the same level of success as Epicenter, he still did enough to earn a spot in the starting gate for the 2023 Derby.
There is possibly a future star in this race, as Brad Cox looks to win this race again with Nash. He met a good one in his debut at Keeneland when sprinting and then looked like the real deal when breaking his maiden at this 1 1/16 mile distance at Churchill. This will be a good test for him though with a few talented runners coming here after some less than ideal trips.
This is the last race of stakes laden Saturday card in New Orleans. Post time for this race is scheduled for 5:30 (CT).
Fair Grounds, Saturday 12/23/22, Race 12: The $100K Gun Runner Stakes
20 Total Derby points (10/4/3/2/1)
1 – Next Level (20-1 ML, 120-1 Circa): The most experienced runner in this field is scheduled to make his 6th career start this afternoon. He broke his maiden in his local debut at this distance last month, and his trainer, Keith Desormeaux, has done well with his first 15 starters at this meet. His best effort came three starts back when he finished 3rd in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, finishing 4 ½ lengths behind Prince of Monaco and Mirahmadi. He struggled against Muth in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes two starts ago. That race was a disaster from the start as he went to his nose at the break and then he ran up on the heels of a rival after breaking last. He was forced to steady and try to come from last that day. He was making up ground, but once the top horses pulled away, he was unable to keep pace. His last effort was better, using his rail post to make the front end. His rival looked him in the eye at the top of the stretch, but David Cohen called on his class, and he was able to gradually pull away to win by a length. He was all out to beat a maiden field that is nowhere near the caliber of this group. His dam was best at one turn and her first foal to race took after her, doing his best work in sprints as well. I do wonder if he’ll be more effective at a one turn mile. I think Nash and Track Phantom are both faster in the earlier stages and can outsprint them early to gain the front end. While I think he’s better than his first route race, I’m not sure he’s going to be able to improve enough to beat some of the top tier contenders in this one.
2 – Catching Freedom (5-1 ML, 75-1 Circa): This Constitution colt is bred to be a good one, and I think it’s very interesting that Brad Cox is entering him in this spot, along with one of his high profile Derby prospects. I really like both of his first two races. He debuted in a one turn mile at Churchill. He was well backed in that race, but he got away a step slow, and was jostled around a bit while jockeying for early position. He was in behind horses and had to wait, but once Geroux was able to get him angled out, moving about five wide off the turn, he pulled clear as a much the best winner. Cox brought him back in an allowance race at Churchill last month, where once again, he was a heavy favorite. He was jostled around again at the break, but was able to settle comfortably behind horses. There were a few early moves in that race, as he waited patiently. He was caught behind horses going into the turn and Geroux rolled the dice by keeping him inside. He never was able to get out, as the frontrunners held their position, and the eventual race winner, Parchment Party kept him pinned in while coming with his late bid. He looked loaded once again, but never really had a chance to run. He still improved upon his initial Beyer Speed Figure, while finishing 4th. The dam was graded stakes placed and a stakes winner at nine furlongs. Her first two runners, Strava and Bishops Bay, were stakes placed as well. Geroux opts to ride Nash, which is understandable after his super impressive victory last month. Corey Lanerie is more than capable, and he’ll take over for the first time. He feels like the most logical threat to the favorite, and becomes a lot more desirable if his odds float over his 5-1 morning line figure.
3 – Risk It (5-1 ML, 75-1 Circa): Like Catching Freedom, this Gun Runner colt is coming out of a race with a less than ideal trip. He was one the three shorter priced runners that ran last month in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill. He broke well, but instead of going wide into the first turn while battling for the lead, Tyler Gaffalione tried rating him, keeping him in the second flight of horses. He did not rate very kindly as most of his trouble was self-inflicted. He rushed up on heels on the three leaders and was forced to steady multiple times down the backstretch. Joel Rosario takes over today and I’m interested to see what kind of tactics he’s going to employ with him. His stablemate, Track Phantom, is faster from the gate, but he’s going to have to overcome the outside stall. Risk It was quick enough to make the lead in his debut at Saratoga when going six furlongs, and Rosario can be an aggressive rider from the gate. He hustled Hot Rod Charlie, who was not a prototypical frontrunner, from the gate to set the pace in the 2021 Louisiana Derby. I do think there is a chance that he is sent early, which could add a third speed horse to the pace scenario. If he doesn’t go to the front, he’ll have to prove that he can get comfortable when racing behind horses. Either way, I think the odds are stacked against him for getting a winning trip in this race.
4 – Neat (12-1 ML): Rob Atras puts his perfect 3-3 record at the meet on the line with this son of Constitution. All three of his starts have come on the grass so he’s an absolute wild card in this spot while trying the main track for the first time. His debut at Kentucky Downs was a disaster where he hopped at the start and then was slammed into by another runner a few steps later. He didn’t run much after that, finishing up the track when sprinting 6 ½ furlongs. He came back to break his maiden at Laurel in convincing fashion when going two turns and then he followed that up with an impressive allowance victory on the local turf course. His dam was unraced, but she has foaled four other horses. Her best runner was Louder Than Bombs, who was stakes placed on the turf. Only one of her foals has won a race on the dirt though, and that came in lower level claiming races in Ohio. I respect the connections taking a shot in a spot like this, especially since there aren’t a ton of stakes options on the turf for (soon to be) three year olds on the turf until next year. However, I think his future is going to be on the turf.
5 – Footprint (20-1 ML, 175-1 Circa): He broke his maiden in his debut for Ken McPeek while racing with $150K maiden claimers at Keeneland in October. He finished about two lengths behind Catching Freedom in allowance company in November, when getting a much more favorable trip than his rival. He wheeled back in 16 days to race second in an off the turf allowance race at Churchill in his most recent effort. His dam won one race in 17 career starts and she has foaled six other runners that have made it to the track. The best of that group is Red Hot Mess, who was a stakes winner at Delaware as a two year old when going one mile. The fact that he debuted for tag and that he hasn’t progressed a ton with his speed figures tells me to try to look elsewhere.
6 – Nash (7-5 ML, 35-1 Circa): He finished second in his debut when competing in one of the faster sprint races for maiden special weight horses at the Keeneland Fall Meet. He finished a clear cut second that day, 5 ¼ behind Booth and four lengths better than the next runner. Brad Cox brought him back in a two turn maiden special weight race at Churchill, going 1 1/16 miles. He controlled an honest tempo and drew off to win by over ten lengths, posting a gaudy 97 Beyer Speed Figure and looking like a horse with a very bright future. He’s going to have to back up that effort while facing winners for the first time today. His dam was a multiple graded stakes winner who has produced some useful horses like Sara Street and Spa City. Both of those runners were sired by Street Sense and this is her first foal from Medaglia d’Oro. Florent Geroux opted to retain the mount on this horse who certainly feels like has the highest ceiling in the race. He is going to have to prove that he can win with a contested pace scenario and with an Asmussen runner to his inside and outside, he’s almost certain to have to try to handle it today. He’s going to be a short price and he may prove to simply be too good for these. However, at short odds, I’ll look for alternatives, while making sure I’m properly covered with him on top.
7 – Snead (6-1 ML, 120-1 Circa): Like Neat, he also began his career on the turf. However, a rainy day changed his fortunes as his third start was washed off the turf at Churchill and contested over a sloppy course. He raced in midpack and took a decent amount of mud to the face. He was under a ride for the better part of the final ½ mile of that race, but he hung around and saved enough energy to get by the frontrunners and draw away late. He looked much more comfortable on dryer footing when facing allowance runners on this oval last month. He won that race by over seven lengths. He’s bred to be a solid runner, sired by the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner, Nyquist. His dam was unraced, but his grand dam is Cara Rafaela and she is a full brother to Bernardini. He took a big step forward last out, and like Catching Freedom, I think his off the pace running style could serve him well in a spot like this. My concern is that he took a big step forward to win his most recent start, and he’s going to likely have to move forward once again to beat this group. Ultimately, I don’t think the fields he faced in his last two starts can match up to the depth of talent that some of his other rivals have faced. He’s probably more of a saver for me in this spot.
8 – Track Phantom (7-2 ML, 85-1 Circa): The other Steve Asmussen runner is coming to town after a strong maiden allowance win at Churchill last month. He ran well in his first two starts there, finishing in the money twice. Both of those races came when going a one turn mile there. I like that he took another big step forward trying two turns for the first time in his last start. Joel Rosario was aggressive in getting him to the front while also keeping a very green and eager rival pinned in and unforgettable on the rail. He kicked clear at the top of the stretch and was able to be geared down late while winning by just under five lengths. Lat Long, the runner who closed into second, came back to beat a solid maiden special weight group at Oaklawn last week. His dam was a multiple stakes winner on both turf and dirt, with distances ranging from six furlongs to one mile. She did her best work at one turn with her most notable win coming in the Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run at Keeneland in 2017. Her first foal wasn’t anything special to speak of, but this $500K son of Quality Road definitely could be a good one. My concern with him in this spot is that I think there are runners posted inside of him that are also quick. I don’t think he can get to the front nearly as easily as he did last time out. Another concern for me is that Joel Rosario rides Risk It for Asmussen, and Cristian Torres, who did ride this one in his first two starts, gets called back on him. I thought Rosario’s ride on this colt was brilliant when breaking his maiden, and while Torres is certainly more than capable, I think he’s in a tough spot here. I have a lot of respect for this runner, but I’ll be trying to beat him, assuming he’s the second choice in the wagering.
The Verdict: 2-6-7
Even though it’s very early in the Prep Season, I think this could be a very productive race on the road to the Kentucky Derby. I think there are several runners in this race with bright futures, and I think many could be eligible to move forward. This race starts with Nash, because he could be a special kind of horse. Not many runners put up a high 90’s Beyer Speed Figure in their second career start and their first route race. There’s a definite chance that he could simply be better than his seven rivals at this point. He’ll be an A line play for me, but the odds are going to be short and I do have a concern about the pace scenario. There are at least three runners that could challenge him for the early lead, which could cause the tempo to be on the aggressive side.
I think Catching Freedom could be the main beneficiary under those pretenses. He looked like a horse that was absolutely loaded in both of his two starts. He was patiently ridden and once he got free in his debut, he powered home. He was blocked for almost the entire last ½ mile of his last race. He seemed to have plenty of run but had nowhere to go. He makes his third career start today and figures to benefit from the longer stretch here in New Orleans. Corey Lanerie knows this course will and should be able to time his late surge.
While he hasn’t faced fields that were particularly strong, Snead is undefeated on the dirt and could be another runner that comes from off the pace to grab a piece of this race. He looked much better visually on the fast track last time as opposed to his win in the slop two starts ago. There is also a solid pedigree there to back up the idea that he could move forward again.
I’ll try to beat both Asmussen runners, Risk It and Track Phantom, knowing that strategy comes with a decent amount of risk. Like Catching Freedom, Risk It found himself in a decent bit of trouble in his last start. However, the trouble that Risk It experienced was mostly his own doing. While it doesn’t discount that he ran a decent race, which could have been better with a clean journey, it does take into account that his struggles came when he was asked to travel in behind runners, just off the leaders. He didn’t want to do that for Gaffalione in the Kentucky Jockey Club and now he gets the services of Rosario. I think a move like that signals that he could be asked for speed, especially with his inside draw. That move might make life difficult for his stablemate, Track Phantom. Rosario is off of him, and he may be asked to try to tuck in from his wide draw and track the leaders down the backstretch. He’s a sharp gate horse though and Torres may be compelled to try to make the front end with him. I think these two runners are going to be vying for second and third choices in the wagering and both could wind up in a difficult spot.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
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