The Derby Trail makes its first stop at Turfway Park with the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes. This is the local prep for the Jeff Ruby Steaks run three weeks from today. There’s a wide open field of 14, where only 12 will run this evening. Do note that both of the also-eligibles have been scratched from this race. The favorite is Epic Ride (#6), who has been dominant in his last two starts on this oval. He’s coming off a four length victory in the Leonatus Stakes, which is the first leg in this three year old series in Florence Kentucky. It is worth mentioning that only six of the 14 runners that entered this race are nominated for the Triple Crown races. Post time for this race is set for 8:25 (ET).
Turfway Park, Saturday 3/2/24, Race 6: The $150K John Battaglia Memorial Stakes
42 Total Derby points (20/10/6/4/2)
1 – Gettysburg Address (6-1 ML, 400-1 Circa): Brad Cox has three runners entered in this race, and this son of Constitution is probably the runner with the best chance in this race. He won on debut at Ellis Park, which was good enough to earn him a spot in the starting gate for the Street Sense Stakes in October. He set the pace, but faded to 4th in the slop that afternoon. He went on to finish 4th in the Smarty Jones Stakes and in a N2L allowance race at Oaklawn in his most recent effort. The winner of that race, Northern Flame came back to run third behind Timberlake in the Rebel Stakes last weekend. His dam started twice on synthetic, breaking her maiden on the Polytrack at Del Mar in 2013 and then winning the Torrey Pines Stakes there the following year. Horses sired by Constitution have won 14% of their synthetic routes in the last five years. He has been facing better horses than many of these and if his game does translate to the synthetic surface, he’s going to be tough. On the flip side, the value is likely going to be less than ideal, as he’s the Brad Cox runner likely to take more money than the other two.
2 – Ode to Balius (30-1 ML): He’s been on the sidelines since breaking his maiden in an off the turf maiden special weight race at Ellis back in August. Since that win, his owner has transferred him to the barn of Concepcion Torres. He has a few solid works over this course, but this is a huge jump in class. I haven’t seen enough to convince me that he’s going to be able to beat some of the better horses in this race this evening.
3 – Mr. Faversham (30-1 ML): He broke his maiden while dropping into $50K-$40K maiden claiming company here last month. He comes back in two short weeks and takes a big step up in class while facing winners for the first time. While he has been much more competitive on synthetic than he was on the dirt, I don’t see him moving forward enough to compete at this level.
4 – Bolt At Midnight (4-1 ML): This son of Bolt d’Oro has been a different horse since getting off traditional dirt and moving to synthetic. After three off the board finishes in Southern California for Mick Ruis Sr., he came to Turfway and was very good in his local debut, losing in a three horse photo. He withstood some interference in the stretch and he was promoted from third to second via disqualification. The winner of that race, Tennessee, came back to clear the N1X allowance condition on this oval three weeks ago. His connections could be waiting for the Jeff Ruby Steaks for his next start. In his last start, Bolt at Midnight used his rail draw to take it to the field from the start last time out, easily beating maidens while posting the Top Beyer Speed Figure in the field (87). He had everything his own way last time out and I don’t think he’s going to be able to walk on the front end like he did last time out. However, he is improving and he clearly has taken well to the local surface.
5 – Fidget (15-1 ML): The second runner from the Cox barn is also making his synthetic debut tonight. He broke his maiden on the turf in September at Horseshoe Indianapolis and then cleared the N2L allowance condition when trying the dirt for the first time there. That effort was good enough for Cox to consider running him against his stablemate, Catching Freedom, in the Smarty Jones Stakes on New Year’s Day at Oaklawn. He was wide throughout and came up empty that day, finishing last of nine. The way the N1X allowance condition is written at Oaklawn, he’s still eligible to run in one of those races there, where he has been based all winter and the purse is comparable to that of this race. I get trying to take a shot with him on this surface, but I prefer others in this race.
6 – Epic Ride (5-2 ML, 50-1 Circa): John Ennis has had a tremendous meet here at Turfway so far, winning with 11 of 33 starters. Two of those wins came from this son of Blame who has been excellent here of late. He narrowly missed in his debut, but came back to break his maiden by five lengths in January. Last month, he was the second choice in the Leonatus Stakes here when trying two turns for the first time. He had inside position on the favorite, Vote No, and he battled with him for the lead. He put away his more experienced rival and opened up off the final turn, winning by four lengths. He did struggle to switch leads in that race, which led to him drifting out somewhat at the top of the stretch. He’s facing a larger and more talented field tonight, and for the first time in his career, I think there’s a decent chance that he is going to have to be outside of the speed, as opposed to having inside position. He has a lot of raw talent and is eligible to improve in his second start at two turns. He’s definitely a player in this race, but he could be a bit vulnerable while dealing with additional pace pressure.
7 – Blue Eyed George (6-1 ML): He was the runner-up to Epic Ride in the Leonatus Stakes in his most recent start, which was his first race since an allowance victory on grass at Keeneland in October. I thought his effort in that race, which was also his first start on the Tapeta, was quite encouraging. He didn’t have the best journey, having to tap on the brakes early on while the front-runners tried to slow the pace down. He was in tight on the second turn and had to alter course to the inside when Epic Ride drifted out. Overall, I think there was a lot to build off of from that effort. Luan Machado has been riding extremely well at this meet, winning with 21% of his mounts. His trainer parlayed a win in the El Camino Real Derby with Rombauer to a win in the Preakness in 2021. His sire, Flameaway, won his debut on synthetic at Woodbine as a two year old, and his offspring have won 4-28 (14%) of their synthetic routes so far. His dam was a multiple stakes winning sprint on the Tapeta at Woodbine, so there’s reason to believe that he can move forward in his second start off the layoff and on this surface. I also think there’s a reasonable chance that he goes into the starting gate as the 4th or 5th choice in the wagering. I think he’ll offer the best value in the race and there’s enough upside there to think he could pull this off for
8 – Break Out (12-1 ML): Saffie Joseph brings this recent maiden winner up north for his first tilt with winners. He showed a nice burst of speed while coming with a strong late surge in a turf race at Gulfstream at the end of January. He was third in his only start on synthetic two starts ago. The Tapeta course in South Florida has been very kind to front end speed, and that race played out like a merry-go-round with the top three finishers pretty much holding those same positions throughout the contest. While I didn’t love the ride he got that day, he seemed to have much more acceleration on the grass. Others are more interesting to me in this race.
9 – Mission Ready (15-1 ML): The trip note for his last race suggested that he had an eventful trip, and to some extent that was true. However, when I read that running line, I was expecting to watch the replay and come away with the conclusion that he was significantly better than the horses he beat that day, and that wasn’t really the case. He was the best horse in that race, although when looking back at some of the performances that evening, I’m not sure that’s saying much. He took a decent step forward with the addition of Lasix, which could have possibly been the remedy for his poor effort two starts back. However, he won’t be permitted to have that today. I’m not convinced that he has another big move forward today.
10 – Good Bali (20-1 ML): He’s sired by Bal a Bali, who is off to a great start as a sire of horses on synthetic, with his offspring winning 22% of their races on this surface. He ran well to be third as the longest shot on the board in the Leonatus last out. However, he was able to save a decent amount of ground that day, and that assignment is going to be much more difficult when breaking from the ten hole. While he’s had some excuses for some of his poorer efforts, I haven’t seen enough of a progression in his races to back him in this race.
11 – Mugatu (20-1 ML): The most experienced runner in the field is making his 10th career start tonight. His best effort came two starts back when he was third, beaten less than a length by Mission Ready. He was no match for the top two last out and I don’t see him being able to compete at this level with this group.
12 – Encino (9-2 ML, 400-1 Circa): The third runner from the Brad Cox barn makes his third career start. He paired his Beyers in his first two races, breaking his maiden in his most recent effort. He was able to use his inside draw to secure the lead and set moderate fractions while going gate to wire. That assignment gets much harder when breaking from the 12 hole in this race. I do think he’s eligible to improve, but with his wide post and his lack of seasoning, I think it’s a tall order to think he’ll improve to win this race from this post.
13 – Karlwithanarl – AE (20-1 ML, 500-1 Circa): The first runner that would be able to draw in off the AE list is coming in off a pair of wins over this oval. He broke his maiden two starts back in a $15K-$10K maiden claiming race. He added Lasix and pulled off the upset with $50K starter allowance company in his last start. He had a favorable trip that night, but like all of the other runners, he won’t be eligible to race with Lasix here. This is a big step up in class that I don’t think he’s ready for.
14 – Katheeb – AE (10-1 ML, 400-1 Circa): He’d be an interesting runner in this race if he does get to compete. He was a runaway winner when going gate to wire in his debut on this oval in December. Brendan Walsh brought him to Gulfstream where he was shuffled back to 7th in the early going. He made up some ground but initially shied away from a narrow opening along the rail. Gaffalione asked him again and he responded with a big surge, but the two runners to his outside drifted in and he had to take up suddenly, losing all chance and falling to the back of the field. He could have easily won that race, so his effort on the screen looks much better than it does on paper. Walsh’s horses have struggled at this meet so far, and if he does draw in, he’s going to overcome a wide post. However, I think he has a lot of upside and could be a sneaky horse in this race.
The Verdict: 7-6-14-1
Epic Ride (#6) has been excellent in his last two starts, which should make him a short price in this large field. He wants to be forward, which hasn’t been a bad place to be throughout this meet at Turfway. He will have company though, as both Gettysburg Address (#1) and Bolt At Midnight (#4) are likely to make him work for the early lead. He appears to have the most raw talent in the field, which certainly makes him dangerous. He won the first leg in this series for three year olds at Turfway and he figures to be right in the mix once again. He’ll be on most of my tickets, but I do think the horse who finished second to him in the Leonatus Stakes has some upside here.
Blue Eyed George (#7) was that horse and he was making his first start since October at Keeneland in that stakes race. While I wouldn’t classify his trip as disastrous by any means, he did find some minor trouble at two different points. If he can work out a clean trip, I do see him as a horse that is eligible to improve in his second start off the layoff. The odds differential between these two runners in the Leonatus Stakes was 8-5 on Epic Ride and 6–1 on Blue Eyed George. If that gap widens a bit more today, which I think is entirely possible, I think the better value is on Blue Eyed George. I’ll make him the top pick here.
Katheeb (#14) is going to need some help to get into this race, but I think he’s very interesting if he gets to start. He was an easy winner on debut when going a mile here in December. He was making a solid run at the leaders on the turf last out at Gulfstream when he was stymied and forced to check hard. He makes his third career start after showing improvement upon a nice debut prior to that incident. I like the move to get him back on this course, where Declan Cannon will have to avoid losing too much ground going into the first turn to have a legitimate chance. He could be overlooked if he draws in though and I’ll be using him if he does.
Gettysburg Address (#1) is the backup for me if Katheeb is forced to stay in the barn tonight. There’s enough in his pedigree to think that his game could translate to the synthetic surface. He’s been facing better runners than most others in this field, and he figures to sit a decent inside trip from his rail draw. Brad Cox wins 30% of his races on this Tapeta surface, so his runners aren’t to be taken lightly.
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