Since Keeneland switched back to traditional dirt, this race has attracted some strong contenders for the Kentucky Derby. Even though a Derby winner has not won this race and the Kentucky Derby since Strike the Gold did it in 1991, we have seen several quality horses take their shot here over the last few years. Belmont winner, Essential Quality, won this race in 2021. Art Collector, Vekoma, and Good Magic all went on to win Grade 1 races after winning this race in recent years.
There’s an 11 horse field put together for this year’s race, which features the rematch between Dornoch and Sierra Leone. They were separated by a mere nose in the Remsen last year and both went on to win their last start, earning 50 more points toward entry in the Kentucky Derby next month. There are some promising colts that are throwing their hats into the ring for this Grade 1 contest.
This is the one of three 100 Derby Point races scheduled for today, with the post time set for 5:52 (ET). The Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby are linked with this race in a cross-country, $3 Pick-3 wager, starting at 4:07 (ET) with the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
Keeneland, Saturday 4/6/24, Race 10: The Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass
200 Total Derby Points (100/50/25/15/10)
1 – Top Conor (15-1 ML): While Chad Brown opted to wait for the Derby with Domestic Product, he sends two lightly raced horses to go along with the big gun in his stable, Sierra Leone. This son of Twirling Candy was an impressive winner in his debut when going a one turn mile at Gulfstream on February 17th. He put up a big Beyer Speed Figure for that effort, but this is a big step up in class while facing one of the stronger fields during this Derby prep season. I think he’s going to need this race.
2 – Be You (8-1 ML): Todd Pletcher sends out this Curlin colt who finally broke through in maiden company, dominating a good field to win going away in a seven furlong contest. He debuted in a strong maiden special weight race on the Whitney undercard and he just missed that day, losing to Just Steel, but finishing in front of both Locked and Domestic Product. He was rushed into Grade 1 Stakes company at Saratoga and Santa Anita. He finished third in a slow running of the Hopeful and he finished a distant third behind Muth and Wine Me Up in the American Pharoah. He struggled in his next two starts, finishing off the board behind Nash at Churchill and behind Conquest Warrior and Antiquarian at Gulfstream. He’s kept good company, but he’s been flat in both of his two turn races. One of the two other foals to race from his dam, Jacaranda, has one win at two turns, breaking her maiden on the synthetic at Turfway. The other wins for her runners have all come at one turn. He is sired by Curlin, so there is stamina influence there, however, I’m going to need to see that he can be competitive at two turns at this level before taking any price less than 15-1. With his human connections, that doesn’t seem likely to happen.
3 – Seize the Grey (20-1 ML): D. Wayne Lukas is sending out an improving three year old son of Arrogate for MyRacehorse in this race. He was moving well late to get up for third in the Jeff Ruby Steaks three weeks ago at Turfway. Prior to that, he cleared the N1X allowance condition when winning at two turns at Oaklawn. He seems to have grown up somewhat since his two year old campaign and now he makes his third start off the layoff today after pairing his first two Beyers. While I do think it’s likely that we see both Dornoch and Sierra Leone take the necessary step forward, I think he has the look of a horse that has another forward move in him. He’s proven on the dirt and he continues to get better. He’s a live longshot in this race for me.
4 – Dornoch (3-1 ML): Mage’s little brother is looking to pull off a pretty incredible feat, which would be to have two full siblings win the Kentucky Derby in consecutive years. By virtue of winning the Remsen and the Fountain of Youth Stakes, he has enough points to qualify to enter the Derby. He has been on the lead pretty much from start to finish in his last three starts. He broke his maiden here in the fall, he led, was headed, and then re-rallied to win the Remsen, and then he controlled the pace in a scratch decimated running of the Fountain of Youth Stakes. I think this is a good spot to see if Dornoch really is a “need the lead” type, or if he’d be willing to stalk the pace. There’s as many as five runners that could be in play to be the leader at the first call in this race. Two of them are stretching out to two turns for the first time. Danny Gargan likely didn’t have him fully cranked for his seasonal debut, and after almost half the field defected from that race, it turns out that he didn’t need to be at his best yet. Gargan has good numbers with horses second off the layoff, and I’m expecting him to be competitive, regardless of the pace scenario.
5 – Good Money (20-1 ML): The second of three Chad Brown horses in this race tried to take the Tampa Bay Derby field wire to wire. He set a ridiculously slow pace that day, which could have partially been a function of having to wait on the track for over a half hour while they tried to get the tote delay sorted out. Grand Mo the First was third that day and he came back last week in the Florida Derby where he finished third. He was no match for Fierceness, but he did run a race that was slightly faster than his Tampa Bay Derby. Everdoit is the only other horse from that race to run back since, and he was a winner in allowance company eight days after finishing 8th in that Grade 3 contest. While I’ll be forgiving of the slow time, Good Money had the dream set up, and while he was only beaten by ¾ of a length, I think he should have been able to win that race if he was a horse that was going to be competitive at this level of competition.
6 – Just a Touch (7-2 ML): The third choice on the morning lime makes his third career start and his first at two turns. He was an impressive maiden winner in a six furlong sprint at the Fair Grounds back in January. He shipped to New York where he went off as the 8-5 favorite in the Grade 3 Gotham. He was no match for Deterministic that day, but he did run a credible race. He’s sired Justify out of a Tapit mare, so he absolutely should be able to perform at a high level when racing two turns. He has two very sharp works on this track that caught a lot of people’s attention. This should be his first start on a fast track after drawing sloppy courses for his first two races. If he takes to the fast surface, he could be very dangerous with these.
7 – Lat Long (30-1 ML): This son of Liam’s Map is one of the longer prices in this race. He’s another three year old running for Kenny McPeek with Brian Hernandez in the irons. On the plus side, he’s never finished out of the money in six career starts. He broke his maiden in December at Oaklawn, beating his stablemate Common Defense. That one would go on to win his next start and he would later be the runner-up in the Rebel Stakes. Lat Long was most recently third behind Track Phantom and Nash in the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds. Perhaps skipping some of those other three year prep races was by design. He had about 30 days off after his race in New Orleans. He’s worked out six times since, posting a speed 46:2 bullet at Churchill last week. Perhaps the time away did him well, but his speed figures have remained rather flat. I don’t think he’s fast enough to win this race, however, he’s not the worst horse to try underneath in the vertical exotics. Hernandez comes into this meet off a four win day at Oaklawn on their biggest day of the year, scoring with a few nice priced runners that day. He’s had some incredible rides over the last few months, and I’d go as far to say that he might be the most underrated rider in the country right now. I think he’ll ensure this runner gets a decent trip, but it will remain to be seen if he’s good enough to compete at this level.
8 – Epic Ride (20-1 ML): This horse is a synthetic specialist who comes into this race as an absolute wild card. He had an outstanding Turfway meet, winning twice, and finishing second the other two times. Encino caught him late in the John Battaglia Stakes when they made their last start. I personally would have liked to have seen another workout or two going into this race. He’s been running regularly once a month though, so fitness won’t likely be the issue. For me to back him in this spot, I would have liked to have seen him dig in a little more in his last race. I’ll be watching him today.
9 – Mugatu (30-1 ML): Jeff Engler sends out the other 30-1 longshot in this race. His lone win came on the synthetic at Gulfstream. He wasn’t lighting the world on fire on synthetic and his two career starts on dirt don’t suggest that he’s any better on this surface. He’s a toss for me in this race.
10 – Sierra Leone (2-1 ML): Prior to Fierceness running off the screen last weekend, this son of Gun Runner was the favorite for the Kentucky Derby. He’s a nose away from being undefeated in three career starts. He was a winner on debut in a sprint race, where he looked like he was crying out for more ground. He was excellent in the Remsen, coming from last to first with a bold and powerful late kick. However, he idled a bit on the front end, which allowed Dornoch to re-rally and get his nose down on the wire first. He was more professional in his first start as a three year old, coming from off the pace to come home first. He was flattered when Catching Freedom, who finished behind him, came back to win the Louisiana Derby two weeks ago. I’m not sure how many horses want to go forward, but I am confident that he’s developed a little more tactical speed. He figures to be very tough with this group.
11 – Encino (12-1 ML): The winner of the John Battaglia Stakes opted to skip the Jeff Ruby Steaks in favor of this race. Horses sired by Nyquist have a good track record on this oval, winning 16% of their local dirt races. He’s a neck away from being undefeated, losing by a narrow margin on debut. He paired his first two Beyer Figures and took a big step forward in his third career start. He was able to overcome a wide draw at Turfway, but I don’t love the outside draw for him in this spot. He’s a deeper saver for me in this race.
The Verdict: 10-3-4
I think it’s going to be hard to beat Sierra Leone in this race. He’s been extremely good in his first three starts, and if it wasn’t for losing his footing in the slop for a moment, we’d likely be talking about an undefeated runner coming into this race. His connections paid $2,300,00 for him, so the expectations have always been there and they’ve been high. Look for him to get rolling on the turf and into the top off the stretch.
Seize the Grey is a live longshot in this race for me. He’s trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who likes to run his horses into shape. He’s essentially paired his first two Beyers of the New Year, so he could be looking forward to a career top effort, which is what he’ll need to win this race. Lukas already has Just Steel who has qualified and he’s looking for another here.
Dornoch was good, but not great in his three year old debut. He was excellent on this oval last year and should be ready to take a sizable step forward in his 6th career start. I do wonder if there’s going to be a change of tactics for him in this race. Having enough points to secure and entry into the starting gate, likely affords him this opportunity, which may or may not prove to be beneficial as a lead up to the Kentucky Derby.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa, Caesars-William Hill, or Westgate will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
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