Keeneland Full Card Analysis – 4/6/24 – By Eric Solomon

The Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass is the headliner on this loaded 11 race Saturday card. Two of the best three year olds in their class, Dornoch and Sierra Leone are set to square off for the second time. Both have secured enough points to get into the Derby, so this feels like there could be many more rounds to go in this budding rivalry. Four other stakes races support this card, including the Grade 1 Resolute Racing Madison Stakes. First post this afternoon will be 1:00 ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Blue Grass Day starts off with a maiden special weight for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. While Banned for Life (#8) is the morning line favorite, I’d be shocked if Batten Down (#7) doesn’t go into the starting gate as the post time favorite. He’s the full brother to Tacitus who just missed in a nine furlong maiden special weight in his second career start last month at Gulfstream. Last spring, more winners at Keeneland last raced at Gulfstream than any other track in the country. His dam is the five time Grade 1 winning mare, Close Hatches. All of her foals were sired by Tapit. While Tacitus was the most successful of the group, winning three Grade 2 races in his career, both him and Scylla, his four year old sister, have shown a lot of promise. He makes a lot of sense in this race. Instead of the morning line favorite, who is coming off a big effort in a sprint in the slop, I’ll use another Fair Grounds invader, Elephant’s Ear (#5) for Ken McPeek and Brian Hernandez. Hernandez had four wins on the Arkansas Derby Day card, and he rode Mystik Dan to a third place finish in the signature race at Oaklawn. He comes to Keeneland on quite a roll, winning 21% of his races in the last month. He was a game third last month behind the more seasoned runner, Cornishman. He fired a 46:2 bullet work last week at Churchill, suggesting that he’s ready to fire a big effort in this maiden contest. 

Race 2:

This is an interesting optional $100K claiming/N1X allowance race for three year olds sprinting six furlongs. The 4-5 morning line favorite is Scatify (#4), who is a horse that I considered as a best bet in yesterday’s Lafayette Stakes for three year olds going seven furlongs. I really liked him in that race because I didn’t trust the shorter priced runners going seven furlongs. I thought that distance would fit him perfectly, coming off a miserable outing in the San Felipe. However choosing this spot over the stakes race is concerning to me. While the $110K purse of this race is nothing to sneeze at, the fact that his connections had second thoughts about running in a $400K stakes race against some unproven horses is troubling. I think he’ll go into the starting gate at odds higher than his morning line figure, but I’m not convinced this is the right distance for him. Pirate (#6) coming back after a third place finish in the Hopeful, is the top pick. He was sensational in his debut, easily beating Just Steel, who came back to beat a stellar maiden field on the Whitney undercard. He finished a neck behind Timberlake, who would go on to win the Grade 1 Champagne in his start. He’s been working well at Palm Beach Downs for Pletcher and I see him as strictly the one to beat and if he’s anywhere close to 5-2, I think that would represent excellent value. Rick Dutrow sends out Guanare (#7) in this race, running with the $100K claiming tag. He was a winner of the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Laurel two starts back. He tried two turns at Parx last month and was second best, not having the same pop that he did in one turn races. He cost $27K at the Keeneland September Sale in 2022 and he’s already earned $131K on the track. Even if he’s claimed, his owners have gotten a great ROI. However, it does feel a little odd that a stakes winner two back is entered for a tag after a dull effort in his first route race. 

Race 3:

The three year old action rolls on here with this maiden special weight race being contested at seven furlongs. There’s a field of 12 and they’ll all be trying to get the better of Discreet Mischief (#6). He finished second, a head in front of Banned for Life, who tries two turns in the first race of the day. While I don’t like that one in his route debut, I think this son of Into Mischief makes a ton of sense, despite the short price. Brad Cox has respectable numbers on debut, but he’s excellent with second time starters. He’s had several sharp works since he ran that big race on the Risen Star undercard in New Orleans. He faces several first time starters, which should give him an edge at this distance. His dam has three other horses to race, but all three were sired by Kitten’s Joy. Ken Ramsey sold her as a broodmare and this is her first foal to race with a different sire. I think he’s going to be very tough to beat in this race. There’s a few interesting runners that could offer some value underneath, and if the favorite doesn’t fire, they could be upset minding a longer odds. In this space yesterday, I wrote about the success that Philip Bauer has had with his first time starters, and he sends out Bookie Brent (#2) for his maiden voyage this afternoon. His dam and sire both won their debut races in dirt sprints. The first two foals to race from this dam both lost their debut races in photo finishes. Gabriel Saez, who had a winner on a 43-1 longshot at Oaklawn on Thursday, gets the assignment.  I’m a little baffled as to why Lieutenant General (#4) isn’t sprinting on the turf. His dam is the excellent mare, Lady Shipman, who won a ton of races and came within a neck of winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint here in 2015. Her first foal was Golden Pal who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint here in 2020 and the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Del Mar in 2021. Needless to say, it was bizarre to see Ward enter this horse in a maiden special weight race going one mile on a sloppy dirt course at Mahoning Valley in January. He wasn’t terrible that day, but he wasn’t great either. He’s been working well and maybe since there is not a maiden turf sprint race for three year olds in the spring condition book, Ward opted to try him here. His most recent work at Churchill was strong enough for me to think that he’ll run a better race today.

Race 4:

Some wily veterans will sprint six furlongs in this optional claiming/allowance race. It’s fascinating how little early speed is signed on for a race at this distance on the dirt. Bridleuptothebar (#5) could be the lone speed, but I’m not sold that he’s fast enough to win this race. I do think the Night Time (#4) could pull off the mild upset in this race. He’s been running mostly on synthetic surfaces of late, but he can certainly handle a traditional dirt course. He was a winner here in October when going seven furlongs in an optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance race. He came back with a pair of sparkling efforts at Turfway to end the year. He was a winner in the Holiday Cheer Stakes on December 30th. His last two races haven’t been his best, but I think it could sit outside of of Miles Ahead (#1) or Surveillance (#2) and get the jump on them when making their run for the wire. Miles Ahead has finished in front of Surveillance the last two times they’ve meant on the track. Surveillance did get the better of his rival at the end of 2022 when winning the Scherer Memorial at the Fair Grounds. While Miles Ahead is coming off a dull effort in the slop at Oaklawn, he’s probably a little bit better than Surveillance. However, in a race which could have a slow pace, a heady ride from either Joe Talamo or James Graham could prove to be the difference. I’ll use all three on the A line. 

Race 5:

Note that the Pick-6 will start in this race and will cover Races 5-10 instead of the last six races of the day. We saw two maiden special weight races at 1 3/16 miles on the turf for three year fillies yesterday and today, the boys get their turn at this distance. I see White Palomino (#2) as the one to beat in this race. He broke well and was forwardly placed while covered up going into the backstretch. Jose Ortiz found a seam to get him off the rail and make a three wide bid. He lugged in a bit at the top of the stretch when he struggled to switch leads. He looked like he was going to fall back and finish off the board, but he gathered himself and got back on track to be third. Chad Brown gave him a little extra time and he’s been working well at Payson for his second start. Brown has great numbers with maidens second time out and I think this son of Kitten’s Joy will relish the added distance. Artempus (#9) finished in front of White Palomino when both were making their debuts. He ran back on 3/2 and finished a close up second once again. After that race, he was privately purchased by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Michael House. They turned him over to Todd Pletcher who opted to take the blinkers off and keep Javier Castellano in the saddle. He’s another one that should appreciate the extra distance. Thornbury (#7) set the fractions in that 3/2 two race, but he faded to finish third, beaten only a length. That was his 4th career start and Junior Alvarado opted to change tactics completely when sending him to the lead. He ran a much better race than he did in his first three starts, so I’d think that Alvarado will be aggressive minded once again. 

Race 6, The G3 Commonwealth Stakes:

Keeneland offers an All-Stakes Pick-5 which starts with this Grade 3 contest for four year olds and up, sprinting seven furlongs on the main track. I like Wico (#2) a lot in this race, making his second start of the year for Wesley Ward. He’s done a lot of work on turf and synthetic in his career, however, his two races on traditional dirt stand out as easily his two best races. He was excellent when easily disposing of a N1X allowance field here in October when going seven furlongs plus on the Beard Course, stopping the clock in a solid 1:25:4. He came back to run a competitive second to Denington in N2X company at Churchill to end his three year old campaign. Ward brought him back at the end of February in a N3L allowance race at Turfway, likely having this race in mind as his next start. He made the front, but faded late to finish third that day. I like the surface switch and getting Irad Ortiz to ride him again for the first time since September of 2022 is definitely a plus. I think he’s going to be very tough to beat in this race. I’ll back up with the upset winner of this race last year, Here Mi Song (#7). He’s following a very similar pattern coming into this race as he did last year. In 2023 he finished 6th, beaten 2 ½ lengths in the Big Daddy Stakes at Turfway. He came back to win this race at 11-1, narrowly beating out Hoist the Gold. This year, he ran 6th beaten 2 ¾ lengths in the Big Daddy Stakes and now he shows up here again. Others might have a higher ceiling, but he is fairly consistent, making him a logical horse to cover with on some deeper tickets. 

Race 7, The G2 Appalachian Stakes, Presented by Japan Racing Association: 

This Grade 2 contest is easily one of the best betting races of the day. I was ready to take a big shot with Dancing N Dixie (#3) in the Herecomesthebride Stakes last month. However, Mark Casse scratched her in favor of Pounce (#10) who was very impressive when winning that G3 contest. Dancing N Dixie was entered in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks the following weekend at Tampa Bay Downs and I was shocked that I was getting 68-1 odds on her. I thought that was insanely good value as she was full of run until she was forced to slam on the brakes in the Ginger Brew Stakes, when making her turf debut. Her two races on synthetic prior to that were much better than anything she had done on the dirt before. She gave me quite a thrill, but she came up a length short that afternoon. Jose Ortiz,  picks up the mount today and I think she has a big chance once again. Cherie DeVaux sends out Kairyu (#5), who is an Irish bred that was a group three winner as a two year old across the pond. She was dull in her last start as a two year old at Dundalk, however that race was on synthetic. Even though the forecast continues to be dry, the cooler weather should make it so there’s still some give in this course, which should be to her liking. This is a filly that could be any kind. Living Magic (#2) is listed at 30-1 on the morning line, which feels extremely high for a horse that owns a stakes win on turf at a major circuit. She was the winner of the Chelsey Flower Stakes at Aqueduct last year, which ended her three win, two year old campaign. She came up a bit short in the Cincinnati Trophy Stakes for three year old fillies on Tapeta at Turfway in her last start, which was her first since the end of October. I expect her to be more fit for this race, and I see her as one of many with a chance in this one. Pounce will have to overcome a wide draw, and while she’s one of only two graded stakes winners in this field, I do wonder if she’ll have the same closing kick on a softer course. She’s never lost in two starts on grass, so she’s worth using, but I think others offer better value. Buchu (#9) overcame a wide draw when winning the Grade 2 Jessamine in the fall here last year. She ended her two year old season with a 6th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, finishing less than three lengths behind the winner. Bauer has great stats with runners off the layoff, but this is a loaded field and she might need this one before she’s at her very best. Like Pounce, she’ll be more of a backup for me as well.

Race 8, The Grade 1 Resolute Racing Madison Stakes:

The first of two Grade 1 races on the afternoon is a seven furlong sprint race for fillies and mares, four years old and up. Alva Starr (#6) and Vahva (#8) put on a show in the Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run on this course in October. Vahva was going the best late and got up to win by a half length over Alva Starr that day. Vahva has been on the sidelines since while Alva Starr came back in February to win the American Beauty Stakes in the slop at Oaklawn with ease. Her game is front end speed, and that race in Arkansas should give her a fitness edge over her rival for this rematch. However, I do wonder how hard she’ll have to work to make the early lead. I see her as a major player, especially if early speed is doing well in the dirt races up to this point. However, I think the California bred, Big Pond (#7) could be sitting the perfect trip in this race. Flavien Prat will ride her for the first time after she turned the tables on Daddysruby in the Spring Fever Stakes at Santa Anita in her last start. She was an easy winner that afternoon, getting revenge on her rival that got her nose down first in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes two starts back. While her pedigree is modest, she keeps getting better for Tim Yakteen. She’s definitely earned the right to take this shot today. Vahva ran so well here, I can’t completely ignore her in this spot. I will use her as a backup though today.

Race 9, The Grade 2 Shakertown Stakes:

This is a wide open turf sprint with an overflow field of 13 entered to go 5 ½ furlongs. I’m going for a bomb by using the eight year old gelding, Front Run the Fed (#8) on top. He’s following a similar pattern coming into this race as he did last year. He finished off the board in the Joe Hernandez Stakes at Santa Anita and then was given a little time off. When doing this last year, he came from off the pace to win an allowance race on this course last spring. Since there’s no standout in this race this year, I like the move to take a swing in this spot. He should be on a softer course once again and there should be a solid tempo for him to close into. Mischief Magic (#3) is another Charlie Appleby horse coming to the state to try to take down some of the large pots available for turf horses. He was a winner on this course in 2022 when winning the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He struggled in his first two races at Ascot last year, but after a little extra time away, he seems to have gotten back on track. He was a winner in Meydan in February and he just missed in the Group 3 race fifteen days later in Qatar. He’s another one that could benefit from what should be a decent early tempo. On deeper tickets, Bad Beat Brian (#5) is a live longshot that nearly pulled off the 40-1 upset in this race last year. He wasn’t as sharp in his last three starts of 2023, which prompted Brittany Vanden Berg to give him a little time off. He’s run well fresh in the past and he’ll likely be a little closer to the front than the top two. 

Race 10, The G1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes: 

I have a horse by horse analysis for this race linked below, however, the quick and dirty version of my thoughts for this race are as such. Sierra Leone (#10) feels like to avenge the defeat he suffered to Dornoch (#4) in the Grade 2 Remsen. I think Sierra Leone was the better horse that day and he ran the better race as their first to two preps for the Derby. While Dornoch has been excellent and I’m definitely cheering for him as a fan, I do wonder how he’ll handle some adversity, He hasn’t really had to deal with that yet. Seize the Grey (#3) is a live longshot for D. Wayne Lukas that continues to get better with each start. He’s making his third start off the layoffs and could be sitting on a career top figure. Encino (#11) won the John Battaglia when running his eyeballs out on the Tapeta last time out. He’s never competed on traditional dirt, which does make him a bit of a wild card going into this race. He’ll need a trip form his outside draw today. 

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/road-to-the-2024-kentucky-derby-the-g1-toyota-blue-grass-stakes-by-eric-solomon/

Race 11:

The day ends with a stakes quality allowance race for four year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. It’s hard to build a case against Running Bee (#3) for Chad Brown in the nightcap. He has two strong efforts sandwiched around a tough luck race in the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale. He drew the outside post that day and Irad Ortiz was kept out in the three path with him all the way around the first turn. It looks like he used a lot of energy when engaging with another runner while trying to assume a striking position. I liked the rider switch to Castellano, who took over for his next start at Turfway and I think Gaffalione will get him home in this race. The back up for me in this spot is Camp Hope (#1). While he is a three time winner on this course, he might be starting to show his age at this point in his career. He caught a very soft course at the Fair Grounds when making his seven year old debut in a Grade 3 race. He was never a factor that day, but that race likely helped with his conditioning. I think he’ll have to improve a lot of beat the favorite, but I do think he’s a logical horse to use underneath in the vertical exotics. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 3/10 (30%), $46.72, ($4.67 ROI)

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.