The Kentucky Derby Trail makes it’s only start in Cypress, California on Saturday after with the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. In terms of moving forward toward the Derby, this race offers 20 Derby Points, but since Bob Baffert trained horses aren’t eligible to earn points toward entry in the 2023 Kentucky Derby, only three runners will be able to earn points in this race. The total amount of points awarded today could range anywhere from six to seventeen
This is a race with a rich history, as prior to 2014 it was run as the Hollywood Futurity. There are several quality horses over the years to emerge as a winner of this race. There are some extremely talented runners that have become top quality stallions, such as A.P Indy, Point Given, Into Mischief, Pioneerof the Nile, Lookin’ At Lucky, and Violence. While some of this list were Preakness and/or Belmont winners, there has only been one winner of this race who went on to win the Derby, being Real Quiet back in 1997. Last year, Tim Yakteen scored an upset win with the late Practical Move, who would go on to win the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, but was scratched during the week of the Kentucky Derby.
Los Alamitos, Saturday 12/17/22, Race 9: The Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity
20 Total Derby points (10/4/3/2/1)
1 – Moonlit Sonata (5-1 ML, 100-1 Circa): Tim Yakteen is looking for his second consecutive win in this race by sending out this second time starter. He was visually impressive despite breaking poorly and being stacked up six wide going into the turf. He passed a lot of horses to win going away at Del Mar over Thanksgiving weekend. Both Baffert horses were well backed at the windows and he was largely overlooked, going off at 33-1. This son of Malibu Moon had a sharp work prior to that race and he worked well at Santa Anita last week in preparation for his first try at two turns. He’s sired by Malibu Moon out of a Distorted Humor mare, so the distance shouldn’t be a major issue for him. It is worth noting that none of the other four foals that this dam produced have won a race longer than seven furlongs. However, for a variety of reasons, none of them have really tried. I think he’s a good fit for the long stretch here at Los Alamitos and I see him as the best alternative to the Bafferts.
2 – Wynstock (5-1 ML, 175-1 Circa): He is the longest price runner of the Bob Baffert trio that entered in this race, and even though I’m not sold on him as a contender in this race, I do find him very fascinating. He’s from the first crop of Solomini, who was the runner-up to Good Magic in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He crossed the finish line first in this race that year, but was disqualified and placed third. He hit the board in a few graded stakes as a three year old and finished 10th, behind Justify in the Kentucky Derby in 2018. He retired after an uninspiring 2019 campaign and began his second career at stud. His first crop, which are primarily New York breds, have won 10% of their races this season. His stud fee is set at $6,500, which makes the fact that his connections paid $700K for, a bit mind blowing, especially since he’s the first foal to race from a mare that was 0-8 on the racetrack. Clearly this colt looks the part, but it didn’t translate to victories in his first two races in sprints at Del Mar and Santa Anita. Baffert entered him in a maiden race at one mile for his third start and Kyle Frey put him on the lead and never looked back. He drew off to win that race by 7 and ½ lengths on the wire. I’m not sure he beat that much in that race, as the other runners that came on the dirt didn’t show much in their next starts. I suspect Baffert is going to want Wine Me Up on the front end in this race, and I don’t see Frey getting overly aggressive if that happens. While his story is intriguing, I’m more interested in some of the other runners from a wagering standpoint.
3 – Stronghold (3-1 ML, 110-1 Circa): Phil D’Amato campaigns this son of Ghostzapper who has three starts, all coming in one turn races. He began his career at Ellis Park in Kentucky where he finished second to Awesome Road. That one has gone on to have a pair of disappointing finishes in graded stakes company. He stretched out to the one turn mile at Churchill where he was able to get the job done at the beginning of October. D;Amato brought him to his West Coast base where he ran into the buzzsaw that is Nysos in the Bob Hope Stakes. He was clearly second best that day, but his effort didn’t really show much growth from his first two tries. He’s worked well in the mornings out here and I like that D’Amato brought him over from Del mar to get a workout over this track last week. He’s sired by Ghostzapper and he’s the first foal to race from the graded stakes winning sprinter, Spectator. I’m not convinced that he’s going to be his best self at two turns and I suspect others will be finishing better than he will be in this race.
4 – Ace of Clubs (15-1 ML): The longest shot on the board in this race is coming here off a pair of two turn turf races at Santa Anita. He finished off the board in both of those races and now comes back to the dirt for Doug O’Neill. He had two wins in dirt sprints at Del Mar, however those races came against inferior competition, facing $100K maiden claimers and starter allowance company in those races. We’ve seen O’Neill take some big swings with horses that have looked overmatched on paper, however, I think some of the others are better suited for this kind of race.
5 – Coach Prime (2-1 ML, 65-1 Circa): Zedan Stables paid $1,700,000 for this son of Quality Road at the Keeneland September Sales in 2022. It was a bit confusing to see him debut on the turf at Santa Anita because it’s not like he didn’t have an option to debut at two turns on the dirt at that meet. His half brother was bred to Kitten’s Joy, so it’s not a shock that that one has been campaigned mostly on the grass. Baffert moved him to the dirt for his second start where he was sent off at 7-5 in the wagering while breaking from Post 9. He was jostled at the break and forced to be three wide all the way around the first turn. He was tucked in behind runners as they set an aggressive pace on the front end. Flavien Prat was extremely patient and once he found a seam, he exploded through that hole as a much the best winner. That effort was by far the most visually impressive race of anyone in this field. He’s already answered the two turn question, he’ll now have to prove that he’s fast enough. Based off his last race, there’s probably plenty more in the tank. He is a player in this race for sure, the question will come down what kind of value we may or may not get.
6 – Wine Me Up (5-2 ML, 100-1 Circa): The third Baffert runner is the only horse exiting the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He couldn’t keep up with Fierceness in the early stages of that race and never really was involved, fading to finish a distant 8th that afternoon. The only horse that has run back since that race was the only horse that this son of Vino Rosso finished in front of. Noted came back to win the Pulpit Stakes on the grass at Gulfstream last week. When Baffert wants to get his speed horses to build their stamina, you see those horses working six or seven furlongs, just like he did at the beginning of the month. He followed up that drill with a strong five furlong bullet workout last week. Juan Hernandez has ridden for Baffert 25 times at Los Alamitos since the start of 2022. He has won 18 of those races, winning at a ridiculous 72% rate. Hernandez rides this course exceptionally well in general, and I think he’ll have Wine Me Up exactly where he wants to be. I think we’re going to see these Vino Rosso babies, who have looked good so far, improve a lot over the next few months. He’s another one with a serious chance in this race.
The Verdict: 1-6-5
From a betting standpoint, this race lacks a clear standout. I think there are three horses that are better than the rest, but I don’t see much that separates them at this point in their careers. From a visual perspective, both Moonlit Sonata and Coach Prime were extremely impressive in their maiden breaking efforts. They both showed a lot of toughness and grit that you don’t often see in lightly raced horses. I could see both of these runners moving forward off their last races, but I think we’re going to get a much better price on Moonlit Sonata.
Wine Me Up has a class edge over this field and I like the work pattern coming into the race, I’m willing to forgive his dull effort in the Breeders’ Cup because I do believe he has a much higher ceiling than we saw last time out. I think he’ll be too short of a price for me to play him, however, I do see him as a serious contender in this spot.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
