Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby – The Grade 2 Risen Stakes – By Eric Solomon

The first major Derby Prep is the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds on Saturday, with the winner essentially being guaranteed a spot in the starting gate for the 149th Kentucky Derby. Last year, this race drew a loaded field of 14, with Angel of Empire coming away victorious. Two Phil’s was also in this race and both of those runners went on to finish in the money in the Derby. Five of the last nine winners of this race have gone on to be Grade 1 winners (Epicenter, Mandaloun, War of Will, Girvin, and Gun Runner). They’ve won races like the Kentucky Derby (via DQ), the Preakness, the Travers, the Haskell, the Whitney, the Pegasus, and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, just to name a few. 

This year’s edition is once again deep and competitive, with 12 runners looking to stamp their ticket to Louisville. Honor Marie, Catching Freedom, and Track Phantom have all won a Derby Points race already. Sierra Leone who idled a bit once hitting the front in the Remsen, only to be nailed on the wire by Dornoch, picked this race to make his three year old debut, Post time for the last of 14 races on a loaded card in New Orleans is 6:17 (CT)

Fair Grounds Saturday 2/18/23, Race 14: The Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes

100 Total Derby points (50/20/15/10/5)

1 – Tizzy Indy (50-1 ML): He comes back in this full field after finishing 13 ¼ lengths behind Track Phantom in the Grade 3 Lecomte last month. He went off at 61-1 in that field of six and that was still too short of a price for me to try to take a chance with him. I don’t see him taking that big of a jump forward in his 8th career start. 

2 – Awesome Ruta (30-1 ML): This locally based son of Mendelssohn has made all six career starts in the state of Louisiana. He broke his maiden by nine lengths in a slow race at Louisiana Downs in September and he showed promise where he nearly pulled off the 42-1 upset in the Jean Laffite Futurity in the slop at Delta. However, he has run three times here in New Orleans since that race, all of those starts coming in optional claiming/N2L allowance races. He’s been beaten by a combined 21 ½ lengths in those races, so taking such a big jump up in class feels a bit misguided.

3 – Honor Marie (6-1 ML, 30-1 Circa): The winner of the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes makes his first start as a three year old for trainer Whitworth Beckman. Since his last to first victory in Kentucky, he has worked six times over the local oval, looking like a serious horse gearing up for a spring campaign. Beckman, who worked for Todd Pletcher before going out on his own, is a relatively unknown trainer on the national scene. It’s always refreshing to see a fresh face show up in these Derby Prep Races, and if you like their horse, you’re likely to get decent value on him, seeing as how there are several other nationally recognized names that have strong track records in races like this. While both the Remsen and the Kentucky Jockey Club came back with solid speed figures, I think the Remsen was a deeper race with better individual performances from the top two. None of the four horses that have come back to run after the Kentucky Jockey Club have finished in the money in any subsequent race. That includes both Risk It and Awesome Road who were significantly shorter odds in the wagering. This is a horse that I’ll likely use as a backup and a horse that I’ll be rooting for as a fan, but from a wagering standpoint, I prefer others. 

4 – Sierra Leone (4-1 ML, 16-1 Circa): The raw talent of this 2.3 million dollar son of Gun Runner was on full display in the Remsen Stakes in his last start. He sat in last place, well behind a strong early pace in the mud that afternoon. He began to uncork his rally heading into the far turn and he came over the top with a stunning seven wide move. He forged to the front and was ½ length ahead of Dornoch, but he lugged in and Dornoch, who lost a little momentum at the top of the stretch when he ducked in and brushed the rail, came back on the inside to nail him on the wire. In my opinion, that race was the most impressive of the Derby Prep races so far (not counting the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a prep race). Both of those runners ran their eyeballs out, despite being a little green. The outer part of the track was not where you wanted to be that day as inside speed was very good. Sierra Leone was pretty much the only horse on the program to make any real forward progress from those outer lanes. Dornoch did a lot of heavy lifting and while he may have been aided by a bias, the ability to regain his momentum after the minor incident at the top of the stretch and after being under pressure every step of the way, was also an impressive feat. Dornoch appears set to make his seasonal debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in two weeks, so we’ll get to see how that performance stacks up against the deepest prep race field to date. He’ll have his third different jockey in as many starts as Tyler Gaffalione gets the assignment for Chad Brown, both of which are in search of their first Derby win. Blinkers go on for the first time after showing absolutely no early speed in the Remsen. It’s hard to gauge what the pace scenario is going to be in this race. While there isn’t a ton of early speed signed on, the three most likely pacesetters are in posts 9, 11, and 12. I do think the long stretch here favors a horse like this, who has shown the ability to come with an explosive late kick. He’s definitely a contender today and in my opinion, at this stage of the game, he looks like the most serious Derby contender Chad Brown has trained since Good Magic. 

5 – Moonlight (12-1 ML, 250-1 Circa): This son of Audible is cross-entered in the 3rd race on the program, which is a N1X allowance for three year olds. Florent Geroux is named to ride him in this race, but Johnny V. is named to ride him in the 3rd race of the afternoon. Pletcher says at this point, he is planning on running him in this race, which like Sierra Leone, will be his first start since the Remsen Stakes 2 ½ months ago. Horses that finished behind the top two that have come to run since the Remsen, have generally fared well. Drum Roll Please won the Jerome and Domestic Product finished a decent second in the Holy Bull, in front of the two year old champion, Fierceness. Both Le Dom Bro and Billal, who are better one turn horses, ran credible races in the Swale two weeks ago when cutting back in distance. Copper Tax is the one aberration, as he ran terribly in the Sam F. Davis last weekend. Moonlight put up a huge figure when crushing an off the turf maiden special weight field when going a one turn mile at Aqueduct in September. He caught wet tracks in his last two starts, both of which were his first two races on dirt at two turns. He ran okay in both races, but was never threatening the winner in either start. There are some showers in the forecast and if the track comes up muddy or sloppy, I’m going to be playing against him. If the price was right, I could be swayed into giving him a chance on a fast track at this level, but that number would likely need to be in the 20-1 neighborhood. My suspicion is that he might be best suited for the longer one turn races. 

6 – Real Men Violin (8-1 ML, 100-1 Circa): Two weeks ago, Brian Hernandez put on an absolute riding clinic at Oaklawn when winning Oaks and Derby Points Races for Ken McPeek with Band of Gold in the Martha Washington and Mystik Dan in the Southwest. They team up again today with this son of Mendelssohn, who was the runner up in the Kentucky Jockey Club last time out when making his stakes debut. He’s never finished off the board in six career tries and he looked like he was getting very comfortable on the dirt at Churchill in his last two starts. Like Honor Marie he shipped South and got back to the track in the mornings after a month off, working six times since his last start. While I think Hernandez will be able to get everything out of this colt, I feel the same way about him as I do his rival. Other horses in this race have faced stronger fields and I think that class is going to be evident in this spot. 

7 – Hall of Fame (6-1 ML, 27-1 Circa): The first of two runners from the Asmussen barn in this race is coming off a smashing maiden win in his first two turn effort. Like Sierra Leone, he is a son of Gun Runner that fetched over a million dollars at the Fasig-Tipton August Sale in 2022 ($1.4 million to be exact). His final time and Beyer Figure came back better than his stablemate, Track Phantom, who won the Lecomte Stakes later on in the day. He’s the first foal to race from an unraced Giant’s Causeway mare. Joel Rosario rode both him and Track Phantom here last month and Rosario opts to ride the latter. Ricardo Santana Jr., who will be the third rider for him in as many starts, will come in from Arkansas this afternoon to ride. His maiden score was very impressive as he dueled with the front runner starting around the ½ mile pole. They battled for two furlongs until he put away his rival and was well clear and wrapped up late. I do think he might be the horse that can sit the best trip in this race. I think he has enough speed to make the lead if he wants, but with his stablemate drawn in an outside stall, I think it’s more likely that he gets a sweet stalking trip, leading the second flight of runners. I see him as a major player in this race. 

8 – Catching Freedom (5-1 ML, 50-1 Circa): Brad Cox trains this $575K son of Constitution, who is looking for his second win in a Derby Points race. I loved him in the Gun Runner when he was entered that day, in part because of the pace scenario and in part because I thought he was loaded in his second start, but never had a lane to run through. Cox scratched him out of that race, in favor of the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn, which did carry a purse that was $200K more than the Gun Runner. While I loved him in that race as well, I thought we were going to get a better price on him if he competed in New Orleans. He finished in front of both Mystik Dan and Just Steel, who came back to run first and second in the Southwest Stakes two weeks ago. The rider roulette continues with Luis Saez getting the mount for the first time. Florent Geroux rode him in his first two starts, and he’s scheduled to ride Moonlight. Cristian Torres rode him last time in Arkansas, and he’ll be staying there today where he is currently leading in the jockey standings. Like both Honor Marie and Sierra Leone, he’ll likely be with the back half of the field for the first part of this race, so timing and getting first run on the closers is going to be an important factor in what decides the outcome of this race. Cox won this race with Angel of Empire last out, who followed a similar path from the Smarty Jones to this race, and I think he has another contender today.

9 – Cardinale (12-1 ML, 100-1 Circa): The second Pletcher runner in the field broke his maiden at Gulfstream in a slower race back in November. He stretched out to two turns for the first time last month when he dueled with Change of Command for the better part of that race. That runner came back with a poor effort in the Sam F. Davis Stakes last week at Tampa. The 5th place finisher in that race, who had a wide journey, did come back to clear the N1X condition two weeks ago at Gulfstream when cutting back to a one turn mile. Flavien Prat is in town to ride a few horses for Brad Cox on the day, but he lands on this runner today. I think he’s a pace factor in this race, but I prefer several others.

10 – Resilience (12-1 ML, 40-1 Circa): Bill Mott sends out this son of Into Mischief who broke through to break his maiden in his 4th career try last month. He ran into Nash two starts ago when he ran off the screen in a maiden race at Churchill and he did finish ahead of Track Phantom in maiden company back in October. He ran into both Locked and Drum Roll Please when he debuted in the summer at Saratoga and he was second to Stronghold in October. He ran well while closing wide into a slow pace last out at Gulfstream where his class prevailed. His dam did all of her racing on the turf, but both of her foals have only won on the main track. While he’s faced strong fields despite only running in maiden races so far, he’s going to need to take a big step forward to compete at this level. 

11 – Track Phantom (7-2 ML, 28-1 Circa): He’s been excellent since breaking his maiden in the second Stars of Tomorrow card at Churchill back in November. He’s gone on to win front running scores in both the Gun Runner at the Lecomte Stakes on this oval. His last three races have all been in the same Beyer neighborhood, which should get him somewhat close in this race. However, as the races get longer and the fields get deeper, I’m not completely sold that he can keep this run going. I think others have more potential in this race, and despite the fact that Rosario is staying put on this one, I’m more interested in seeing what his stablemate can do. He’s one that I’ll be trying to beat in this race. 

12 – Bee Dancer (20-1 ML): It’s interesting that this horse with only one career start, which was a six furlong maiden score here last month, could wind up having the biggest impact on this race. He’s drawn the far outside post for his second career start, which is three furlongs longer than his last race. He’s trying to do what Taiba did in 2022, which was win a graded stakes race at nine furlongs after winning a debut at six. While he ran a nice race, he was nowhere near as impressive as that runner was in his debut. Where I think he’ll impact this race is his early speed. I don’t think Corey Lanerie has many options other than sending him from his far outside gate. While I don’t think we’re looking at a breakneck pace, I do think his presence is going to keep the front runners honest, which should give the backmarkers a fighting chance to get home. I don’t see him as a horse that I’ll be using today.

The Verdict: 7-4-8

Barring any unforeseen action, I think we’re looking at a moderate pace in this race> If that scenario plays out, I think the advantage in this race goes to Hall of Fame (#7), making his third career start today. He was significantly better than a respectable maiden field here last month, in a race that yielded a faster final time and higher Beyer Speed Figure than the Lecomte. While that’s nice, the main reason that I like his chances today is that I think he’s going to sit the right trip, just off some cheap speed. While I have a ton of respect for his stablemate, Track Phantom (#11), I think the fields that he beat when winning the first two legs of this series were suspect. I think there’s better horses coming from off the pace and at a longer distance today, and I don’t trust that he’ll be there at the wire. I think Hall of Fame stalks the pace and gets first run on the closers. His sustained ½ mile drive last time out tells me that he’ll continue to find the needed energy to win this race. 

Sierra Leone (#4) is the other son of Gun Runner that cost their owners a small fortune. He has looked tremendous in both of his starts, however, he is definitely green. He had the Remsen in the bag and looked like he was going to draw off and win by multiple lengths. While Dornoch is a really nice horse and was able to battle back, it was his lugging in in the last 1/16 of a mile that cost him that victory. He does seem like a horse that has a ton of potential, but can be a little tricky to ride. I like the Remsen better than any other prep race so far and this is not an easy spot for his seasonal debut. He’s live, but the price will need to be right for me. 

Brad Cox and Luis Saez won this race in 2023 with an improving, come from behind, horse coming off a decent effort in the Smarty Jones. They have another horse that fits the same profile today with Catching Freedom (#8). He’s run three strong races, winning the two where he had a chance to really run. While he’s never competed on this oval, Cox has used New Orleans as his winter base. I see that familiarity with the surface as a plus. While Cox sent out two stablemates, which allowed Angel of Empire to be flying under the radar in this race last year, this is his lone entrant this year. I do think he’ll be a fair price though with this evenly matched and talented group. 

We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.