The Gotham Stakes continues to be one of the premier betting races on the Derby Trail. While it’s often a fascinating betting race, the last winner of this race to win the Kentucky Derby was Secretariat back in 1973. In recent history, this race has not produced a slew of great horses. The two best horses to have won this race this century would be 2000 Preakness winner Red Bullet and 2011 Travers winner Stay Thirsty. Easy Goer, Dr. Fager and Gone West all were winners of this race. One of the more memorable editions of the Gotham was in 1992 when Lure and Devil His Due went on to finish in a dead heat. Even though neither horse was a factor in the Triple Crown races, both horses would go on to be multiple Grade 1 Stakes winners and have highly successful careers.
With this race being contested at a one turn mile, there are often several runners stretching out from sprints competing in this race. 8 of the 13 runners that are entered are stretching out from a shorter race and 5 of those runners have never traveled this far on a racetrack.
Further complicating matters, the weather forecast is not good for Saturday in New York. It started raining early and it should remain soggy throughout the afternoon. Post times have been adjusted, so this race is now set to go off at 5:21 (ET).
Aqueduct, Saturday 3/2/24, Race 10: The Grade 3 Gotham Stakes
100 Total Derby points (50/20/15/10/5)
1 – Khanate (30-1 ML, 400-1 Circa): This Todd Pletcher runner is one of two runners that ran in both the Jerome and the Withers Stakes here this year. He finished 5th in the Withers on a muddy course. Eric Cancel had to use him early to try to get to the front from his outside post. I don’t love the rail for him in this large field, but he showed he can be competitive on a wet track, and he also shows a pattern of improvement. He stumbled badly in the Jerome where he finished a distant third at this one turn mile trip. I do think his effort was better than it looks on paper last time out. I think he could take another step forward, and while that might not be enough to beat these, I think he’s an interesting horse to use underneath at a price.
2 – Maximus Meridius (20-1 ML): Robert Reid brings this shipper in from Parx, where he has two wins in three career starts. Both wins came on off tracks, which feels like a positive for today. He is stretching out from 6 ½ furlongs to the one turn mile and the horses that made a similar move in this race last year definitely struggled. I think others are more interesting here.
3 – Deterministic (9-2 ML, 85-1 Circa): Christophe Clement picks this spot for his second career start and his first try since an impressive maiden score this summer at Saratoga. He was away slow and circled the field widest of all on the final turn. He grinded past the leader to win by a ½ length. He’s been on the sidelines since, doing his preparations for his three year old debut at Payson Park in Florida. Clement is good off the layoff and the expectations for this horse are high, seeing as how his connections paid $625K for him in September of 2022. He handled adversity against a decent maiden group on debut. He does have the highest Tomlinson Figure, suggesting that the off track should be a problem. He’s a cool horse, but there’s a lot being asked of him today.
4 – Facenda (50-1 ML): You don’t see too many horses that debut at Turf Paradise in Arizona, make their second career start at Aqueduct. That’s this case with this son of Violence, who is starting for Doug O’Neill for the first time. His debut race came in a maiden optional claiming race at the end of January. His Beyer Speed Figure of 50 is far below the par for this race. He came to Keeneland since being moved out of the Mendez barn, so the ship here isn’t as bad as flying across the country. He has been working well, but this feels like a huge ask for his second try.
5 – Deposition (50-1 ML): Uriah St Lewis is a bit of a longshot specialist, and he takes another shot with this Constitution colt who was 4th in the Withers last time out, That was a race that fell apart a little bit, and he was able to save a lot of ground on a day where many of the others were wide. That was his best career effort and he’ll come back on the same course where he’ll get another off-track. He’s another huge price in this race, but it’s not completely crazy to think he can improve upon his last try. He might be worth throwing at the bottom of a trifecta.
6 – Air Cav (30-1 ML, 225-1 Circa): Brad Cox is taking four shots in this race and this son of Mitole looks to be the biggest longshot. He was 12 lengths behind his stablemate, Bergen, in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes five weeks ago. He hasn’t come close to running a race fast enough to win this race today. Even with four starters, I think the fact that Cox trains him will keep his long odds below fair market value. I’m passing on him.
7 – El Grande O (8-1 ML, 125-1 Circa): This New York bred continues to dance every dance for Linda Rice, making his 11th career start today,. He opened up in the stretch in the Withers, only to have Uncle Heavy nail him on the wire. I think the nine furlongs of that race is just outside his range. I like the cutback to the mile here and the fact that he has had several big efforts on this course when it’s been wet, is a huge plus. He’s been coming up a bit short in the stretch of late, but the cutback in distance should be a plus, especially while facing so many horses stretching out. I think he has a big chance in this race today.
8 – Bergen (9-2 ML, 200-1 Circa, 200-1 Circa): The second of four from the Cox barn is coming off a strong win in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes in his 2024 debut. He caught a muddy track that day when breaking from the outside post. He stayed in the four path while battling for the front and he separated himself from the pace on the turn, pulling away to win by over five lengths. He ran a solid race to be second in allowance company at this distance in his second career try at Churchill in November. He’s a proven commodity on this course and he can handle an off-track. He has also shown he can be comfortable coming from off the pace. I think he makes a lot of sense in this race today.
9 – Eliminate (15-1 ML, 400-1 Circa): He was the heavy favorite when facing Deterministic at Saratoga this summer when both colts were making their respective debuts. Pletcher waited for two turn options at Aqueduct for his next two starts, finishing 3rd and 4th in a pair of nine furlong maiden races here. He cut back to a 6 ½ furlong sprint where he broke his maiden last month. Despite being sired by Curlin, he could be a better one turn horse. However, he hasn’t run a race yet that would lead me to believe that he could beat this group. I prefer others today.
10 – Just a Touch (5-2 ML, 35-1 Circa): The morning line favorite comes in off a dominating maiden victory in a six furlong race in the slop at the Fair Grounds at the end of January. The word was likely out that this one had talent, as he went off as the 1/2 favorite. His dam was a Grade 3 winner at this distance on this oval in 2010. Her other five runners to have started haven’t been anything special and five of their 11 career wins between the group came on the grass. He can handle an off-track and Florent Geroux is going to come to town to ride today. He certainly could be a good one, but he’s going to be a very short price in this race where I think there are plenty of viable alternatives. I’d want to have him in the last legs of my multi-race wagers, but from a value standpoint, I’m going to look elsewhere.
11 – Lightline (8-1 ML, 200-1 Circa): The fourth runner that Cox brings to the party is the 3rd place finisher from the Withers last month. He ran okay to be third that day, but he was sent off at 11-10 odds and I didn’t really see a viable excuse for not winning that race. He finished second to both Stretch Ride and Carbone, and while both of them ran good races, neither have excelled when trying graded stakes company. He keeps running races in the same Beyer range, seemingly without progressing. I’m going to be looking elsewhere.
12 – Slider (8-1 ML, 350-1 Circa): John Sadler ships this son of Jimmy Creed across the country to make his first start since finishing third behind Muth in the Grade 3 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita in January. He’s run three credible races on the dirt, scoring in the mid-80’s Beyer range each time. Sadler opted to try the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint for him after he was the winner of the Speakeasy Stakes in October. He’s been working well in California, and there’s not really another viable one turn option for him there. I get Sadler wanting nothing to do with Nysos, when he’d be trying him at two turns for the first time in the San Felipe. I think there are some positives here, but how he’ll fare on an off-track remains to be seen. He’s interesting though in this race and if his odds go up over the 8-1 mark, he’d be more intriguing.
13 – Capital Idea (12-1 ML, 150-1 CIrca): Christophe Clement has started this son of Classic Empire twice at this track with both starts coming at this one turn mile distance. He was a winner in the slop last out when he broke his maiden impressively. He did run with Lasix that day, which will not be an option today. Trevor McCarthy hasn’t had a ton of success riding for Clement prior to winning last out, however he gets to keep the mount on him today. He’s another live runner in what feels like a race that is very wide open.
The Verdict: 7-8-12
There are several ways to go in this race, and there’s no doubt that if I was alive in one of the multi-race wagers that ends with this race, I’d want to have as much coverage as possible. That being said, I think the foundation the El Grande O (#7) brings to the table could be what separates him from this field. He’s a front-runner that will likely have company on the lead, but he can make the front in the slop. While several others in this race are stretching out to see if they can get the mile, he’ll be cutting back in distance. He’s been caught in the last two starts, but I think he’s more effective on an off-track. I think he can hold on here.
Bergen feels like a candidate that could run them down late, especially if the early pace is too aggressive. All three of his career starts have been solid, winning two of them and finishing second while being jostled around a bit at Churchill. I liked the step forward he took in his third career start and if he can back up that performance at this trip, I think he’s the one to be looking for in the late stages of this race.
Slider is the wild-card in this spot, shipping in from Southern California for John Sadler. Outside of the Triple Crown prep races, there aren’t a ton of options for three year olds there once they have cleared the N1X allowance condition. The one turn mile looks to fit him well, and he’s been facing better horses than most here. The conditions and surface will be a question mark, but all things being equal, I think he is an upper level contender that could offer value. Especially if the public hammers Just a Touch, which feels like a distinct possibility.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
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