A competitive field of 12 has been assembled for the only 200 point Derby Prep Race on a synthetic surface. Last year, Two Phil’s was excellent when winning this race and he parlayed that effort into a big performance on the biggest stage in racing when he finished a game second behind Mage. Rich Strike was third in this race in 2021, prior to his improbable victory in the Kentucky Derby last year. In fact, he ran in all three legs of their three year old series in 2022. Prior to that, Animal Kingdom was the only horse to win the Derby after winning this race since Turfway has been running it on a synthetic course. In 1992, Lil E. Tee became the first winner of this race to also capture the Run for the Roses. What makes this race a little tricky is that none of the horses that are entered in this race have competed in the two local races in this series. Post time for the Jeff Ruby Steaks is scheduled for 6:25 (ET).
Turfway Park, Saturday 3/23/24, Race 12: The $700K Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks
200 Total Derby Points (100/50/25/15/10)
1 – Freedom Principle (30-1 ML, 400-1 Circa): Jose Garafalo brings this son of Flameaway in from Gulfstream after misfiring in a pair of turf stakes races there. He ran two strong races on the Tapeta in Florida in the fall, including a win in the Armed Forces Stakes there. He likes to be forwardly placed and that has been a positive asset on the synthetic course at Gulfstream. He is one of two horses in this race that have a stakes win on a synthetic course. His first effort on grass came in the Grade 3 Kittens Joy Stakes in February. His effort wasn’t terrible in that spot, as he was forced to the back of the pack after getting bumped early. He tipped out and came with a mild bif to finish 4th, finishing 3 ½ lengths ahead of Noted. He came back in the Colonel Liam where he drew the rail. He was near the back of the pack in that race where the early pace was glacial. He was buried behind horses for most of the race. While he didn’t quicken late, I don’t think he ever felt comfortable. With his rail draw in this race, I would like to see him be forwardly placed while getting back on the Tapeta. He’s making his third start off the layoff and I see him as a horse that could flying under the radar in this race.
2 – Dancing Groom (20-1 ML, 400-1 Circa): Frankie Dettori is in from California to ride this son of Vino Rosso who is making his first start on synthetic. His lone win came in an off the turf maiden special weight at Saratoga this summer. He came back to run third, beaten 10+ lengths in the Grade 1 Champagne. Since then, he’s run in three Derby Prep races on the dirt at two turns, finishing off the board in all three. With a limited sample, Vino Rosso, has won with 17% of his runners in synthetic route races (6-35). Unless he thrives over this surface, I see him as a cut below the top tier runners in this race.
3 – Lucky Jeremy (8-1 ML, 300-1 Circa): William Morey brings in this Lookin At Lucky colt in from Sunland where he was most recently third in the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby. Morey has great numbers with runners on synthetic, winning 26% of the time since 2023. He won the Riley Allison Derby in his stakes debut prior to that. He’ the second foal to run from the unraced War Chant dam. Her other foal is winless, but wasn’t awful on grass and synthetic. Lookin At Lucky gets 11% winners from his runners that compete in synthetic routes .He wants to be forwardly placed in a race where there isn’t a ton of early speed. He’s been working well on this oval and could be sitting on a bigger effort if he takes to this course. I see him as another live longshot in this race.
4 – Noted (10-1 ML, 400-1 Circa): Things looked like they were trending in the right direction for this son of Cairo Prince when he took home the top prize in the Sapling Stakes this summer at Monmouth. He just missed in the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes on the turf in his next start. It was a bit of a surprise when he entered in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on the dirt as opposed to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He drew the outside post in that race and was never involved in a race that was won by his stablemate, Fierceness. He got back on the grass and won the Pulpit Stakes in December, but he didn’t run a step in the Kittens Joy as the heavy favorite in his most recent start. There was no visible excuse for his dull effort other than the pace was very slow and he probably needs a stronger tempo to set up his late closing kick. He’s one of two runners for Repole and Pletcher that appear to be running in this race, as it looks hopeful that Triple Espresso will draw in off the AE list. Luis Saez is slated to ride, and while I feel the 10-1 morning line price is a little less than fair, I think he’s going to go into the gate at a lower number.
5 – Agate Road (7-2 ML, 30-1 Circa): After debuting in an off the turf race at Saratoga this summer, he went on to run in four straight turf races, with his most notable race being his victory in the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes. He was second in the Dania Beach Stakes on grass to start his three year old campaign and most recently went back to the dirt in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis in Tampa. He was near the back of the pack and left himself with a lot of work to do. He closed well to be second on a course where coming from that far back on the dirt is a difficult task. He is cross-entered in the Louisiana Derby, and it seems that is where he is going to be racing. I am handicapping this race under the assumption he’ll be scratched.
6 – Northern Flame (5-1 ML, 400-1 Circa): Ken McPeek trains this son of Flameaway who was last seen finishing third behind Timberlake and Common Defense in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes. He ran a decent race that afternoon, pressing an honest tempo on the front end. When Timberlake came over the top and when Common Defense came through a hole on the rail, he had no answer for them. This will be his first start on the synthetic course and it appears that McPeek is trying to keep his three year olds separated going into the 200 point prep races. The dam foaled two horses that are multiple winners on the turf, but her runners have had limited experience on synthetic courses. Flameaway has 5 winners with 35 starters (14%) in synthetic routes (Freedom Principle is responsible for two of those wins). As one of the shorter prices on the morning line, I think there is better value elsewhere in this race.
7 – Woodcourt (8-1 ML, 400-1 Circa): He finished right behind Northern Flame when finishing 4th in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn last month. He’s one of only three runners in this race with a win over a synthetic course and he’s the only runner in this race with a win on this course at Turfway. He was claimed by Cipriano Contreras in that race and he has run well for this barn in his two starts following that race. This son of Ransom the Moon has the most starts in the field and is one of two horses in this race with two wins. He’s won on every surface he’s competed on and he continues to get better. Luan Machado has over 50 wins at this meet and he was aboard for his victory three starts ago. I’d like to get better than 6-1 (ML), but he is a possibility in this race.
8 – Otello (15-1 ML, 125-1 Circa): Christophe Clement and Javier Castellano bring this Curlin colt to town by way of South Florida. He’s made three career starts, winning his first two races when going a one turn mile. He broke his maiden at Aqueduct and went on to win the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream two start ago. That effort was good enough to put him in the G3 Holy Bull Stakes where he ran into the 2023 Two Year Old Champion, Fierceness. He’s a smaller horse and he was bumped by a larger horse in the stall next door when the gate opened. He drifted out into the five path and was four wide going into the first turn, keeping Fierceness even wider. He settled in behind a slow pace and remained in sixth place for almost the entire trip. Curlin gets 15% winners with his runners in routes on synthetic courses and his dam was a graded stakes winner on the turf. Clement has scored with 23% of his runners on synthetic since 2023, however, most of his runners that are switching to all-weather surfaces, are coming from turf races (winning 19% of the time). He has only had three runners in the last five years that have gone from dirt to all-weather. None of them were winners, but all three did finish in the money in their given races. While I respect the human connections very much, I prefer other horses in this race.
9 – Seize the Grey (6-1 ML, 50-1 Circa): He was an allowance winner on the Rebel undercard last month at Oaklawn. D. Wayne Lukas is a two time winner of this race, winning 29 years ago with Serena’s Song (1995) and 41 years ago with Marfa (1983). He brings Nik Juarez in from Oaklawn to ride at Turfway for the first time at this meet. His win was his first start as a three year old and his first race since finishing a distant third in an allowance race in the fall at Keeneland. His sire Arrogate gets 17% winners with horses routing on synthetic courses. While I liked his effort when coming off the bench, I think this is a decent step up in class. I’d also be a little concerned that Juarez is not familiar with the course hasn’t ridden on a synthetic course in the last year. I’ll pass on him as well.
10 – Endlessly (5-2 ML, 200-1 Circa): The morning line favorite was an impressive winner of the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields in his most recent start. He was a winner of his first three races in his career, all coming on the grass. His only career defeat came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf race when he finished 8th, beaten less than four lengths. He’s the only runner in this race with a race at today’s nine furlong distance on any surface, and he looked like he could handle more distance than that. He is one of seven winners in 42 (17%) starts in synthetic routes for horses sired by Oscar Performance. He’s easily the most talented and accomplished runner of the five foals from his unraced dam, Dream Fuhever. He feels like a major player in this race.
11 – Baytown Chatterbox (50-1 ML, 500-1 Circa): Paul McEntee has no qualms taking big shots with some of his horses and he has done that in the past with this Street Sense gelding when trying Grade 1 company at Saratoga and Keeneland. He was a winner of the Juvenile Stakes at Ellis when going seven furlongs this summer. He also has a win at two turns, breaking his maiden in Indiana, albeit with an extremely low Beyer Speed Figure of 28. He made his first start in four months when returning in a 4 ½ furlong allowance race at Charles Town in the slop. Stretching out to nine furlongs off that race is a big ask, while also competing on the synthetic for the first time. He would be a shocker if he won.
12 – West Saratoga (20-1 ML, 300-1 Circa): This son of Exaggerator won the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill back in September, but since then he hasn’t had the same level of success. He was 5th in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and despite finishing second and third in the Pasco and Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa, he was never really close to winning either of those two races. Horses sired by Exaggerator have won 15% of their route races on synthetic, and perhaps the surface switch will wake him up a bit. However, he’s not going to be on my tickets in this race.
13 (AE) – Circle P (30-1 ML, 500-1 Circa): Flint Stites has this one cross-entered in the Private Terms Stakes earlier in the day at Laurel today. He’s based at Penn National and is a stakes winner at Laurel, so the trip to Maryland would be the easier of the two options for this son of Speightster. Stites has not had much success sending horses to run at Presque Isle on the Tapeta, so I do think he’d be better suited staying closer to home and competing on dirt. I won’t be playing him if he does opt to run here. With Agate Road planning to scratch and run in Louisiana, he’d have the first option to run over Triple Espresso.
14 (AE) – Triple Espresso (12-1 ML): If Circle P does opt to run in Maryland, he would be able to draw into this field, as his stablemate, Agate Road is likely going to scratch. Jose Ortiz is likely to ride as he is named on both him and Agate Road. All five of his career starts have come on the turf, most recently finishing 4th in the Colonel Liam Stakes at Gulfstream. His dam did foal a stakes winning sprinter on synthetic. However, his sire, Omaha Beach, is still looking for his first runner to win a race on an all-weather track (0-27). The outside post is less than ideal, and much like with Noted, I think his odds are going to be lower than his 20-1 morning line. He’s not for me in this race.
The Verdict: 1-3-10
While I think it’s fair to say that Endlessly (#10) is the horse to beat in this race, I do see two longshots that could very well pull off the upset, I take a big swing and make Freedom Principle (#1) my top pick. He’s a stakes winner on the Tapeta and when he’s at his best, he’s closer to the front end. I don’t see a ton of competition for the early lead, so I think he can secure a good spot closer to the front today. His first turf try two back wasn’t bad, but he had a bad trip last out, which I’m willing to forgive. The morning line odds are definitely a little off, because he’s more accomplished than some of the other shorter prices. However, anywhere in the ballpark of 12-1 would be just fine with me.
Lucky Jeremy (#3) is a very interesting shipper coming in from a pair of strong efforts at Sunland Park. He was beaten by Stronghold in the Sunland Derby last time out, and that one is a serious racehorse that is eyeing the Santa Anita Derby for his next start. His trainer, William Morey, wins at a high percentage in general, and he’s done well at this meet and well with horses on this surface in general. He paired his last two Beyer figures, should sit a good trip, and has worked well over this course. He’s another one that would be very enticing at 8-1 or better.
Endlessly deserves to be the favorite and is one to be watching for late. The experience at this distance on a similar surface in Northern California is definitely a plus for me. Michael McCarthy won the Preakness two years ago and he’s become a very good trainer that wins in some top races. I don’t know if he’s a true Derby candidate, but this horse has plenty of ability and he’ll be dangerous if he runs the same race or better as his last start.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
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