The first of two Derby Points stops at Tampa Bay Downs is the Sam F. Davis Stakes. While the Derby Points Races here last season were lackluster, I thought this race came up stronger this year. Some of the better winners of this race include Bluegrass Cat and Any Given Saturday, both of which would go on to earn Grade 1 wins in the Haskell later in their three year old seasons. Classic Causeway won this race and the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby in 2022, and would go on to be a Grade 1 winner on the turf when winning the Belmont Derby in July of that year. Post time for this 1 1/16 mile contest is scheduled for 5:14 PM (ET).
Tampa Bay Downs, Saturday 2/8/24, Race 11: The $250K Sam F. Davis Stakes
42 Total Derby points (20/10/6/4/2)
1 – Camp Hale (20-1 ML): This son of Mo Town is one of two maidens in this Grade 3 contest. Ian Wilkes is being uncharacteristically aggressive by entering him in this spot, where he’ll be asked to get two turns for the first time. He was a game second when he debuted in a salty allowance race at Keeneland in October. He finished in front of Patch Adams that day, who was very impressive when breaking his maiden in his next start and he was most recently a troubled 4th in the Southwest at Oaklawn. He finished second in his next two starts at both Churchill and Gulstream, where he was the beaten favorite both times. After coming from off the pace in his Churchill race, Brian Hernandez was more aggressive with him when he stretched out to go the one turn mile at Gulfstream. He fought hard, but he lost the duel that day, finishing second for the third straight time. There are others that could be asked for speed in this race, so I’m not sure what kind of trip to expect from him. He has the rail, so Hernandez might try to secure that spot. However, he could also be willing to concede the early lead and try to stalk and pounce. His speed figures have been relatively flat in his first three starts, but he’s been competitive. I prefer others, but at long odds, I could consider using him in his two turn debut.
2 – Treaty of Rome (6-1 ML): He just missed in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes last month at Gulfstream. Guns Loaded barely held on, but that one was less than impressive when finishing well out of it last weekend in the Holy Bull Stakes. Chad Brown has brought several live runners to Oldsmar, Florida this season, winning with 11 of 27 starters. Flavien Prat rode this one in his first two starts, but Dylan Davis took the mount in the Mucho Macho Man. Prat opted to ride John Hancock for Brad Cox whereas Davis retained the mount on this Uncle Mo colt. The dam, Coin Broker, foaled a horse named Donna Veloce, who just missed in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and was a handy winner of the Santa Ysabel Stakes in 2020. I like what I’ve seen on the track from him and he certainly appears to be a horse that could handle the two turn trip. He’s listed at 6-1 on the morning line with the success Brown has had here this season, that might be a pipe dream. I’d love him at 6-1, but at 4-1 or better, I’ll be using him.
3 – John Hancock (3-1 ML): Brad Cox sends out this second time starter who was a very nice gate to wire in his debut here last month. He doesn’t run many horses here, so the fact that this Constitution colt made his debut on this course tells me that he was targeting this particular race for this WinStar homebred. Cox has great numbers with second time starters that go from sprints to routes, but horses that have followed this path have struggled for him during this Derby Prep Season. Comes a Time, Admiral Dennis, Patch Adams, and Uncle Jim are four that fit that mold. Flavien Prat taking the mount is certainly a plus, seeing as how he’s won 4 of 5 times at this current meet. Samy Camacho rode him in his debut, so this will be the first time he rides him in the afternoon. The dam foaled the winner of the 2020 Grade 1 Ashland, Speech, so he’s certainly bred to handle the longer distance. He certainly wouldn’t be a surprise, but betting against these types of runners for Cox has been a profitable strategy in these Points Races.
4 – Dr Ruben M (12-1 ML): I thought he had a chance to be a player in the Remington Springboard Mile when he was last seen on the racetrack. Doug O’Neill has had him based at Gulfstream over the winter, so the fact that he shows up here instead of the Holy Bull Stakes last week might be a bit of an indictment of how he feels about this colt’s chances. On the other hand, that race is a Grade 3 race and this race is now an ungraded stakes (It was a Grade 3 race last year), but the purse and the Derby Points awarded are the same. He faded to 4th at Remington, which doesn’t look as bad seeing how strong both Coal Battle and Speed King looked in their recent victories in Derby Points Races at Oaklawn. He’s run his best races on the lead and I’m not sure he’s going to be able to outsprint both Camp Hale and John Hancock for inside position. He doesn’t feel like a horse that can afford to be three wide early and still win this race and he doesn’t feel like a horse that can sustain a fast pace while setting the tempo. While I liked his chances in Oklahoma, I think he’s up against it here today.
5 – Gateskeeper (30-1 ML): The other maiden in this field has made two starts at Oaklawn to start his career. He was a strong second in open maiden special weight company when sprinting six furlongs on debut. I was puzzled to see him drop in class to an optional maiden claiming race, despite the fact that he was not entered for a tag. I saw him as a vulnerable favorite in that one turn mile race on 1/17, and he ran that way, finishing third, beaten six lengths. Landing Craft beat him in that spot and he came back in a N1X allowance yesterday at Oaklawn where he finished an uninspiring 4th. I don’t really comprehend how this horse is being campaigned, so it’s hard for me to endorse him for any wagering position in this race.
6 – Owen Almighty (2-1 ML): The morning line favorite in this race is looking to rebound after having his number come down in the Pasco Stakes here last month. That was a costly move as he went from 1st to 5th, which netted a difference in about $50K in purse money earned. The infraction occurred going into the turn. Naughty Rascal made a three wide bid to put pressure on this colt. Rookie Card tried to advance along the rail, and while it appeared to me that he instigated the contact with Owen Almighty, he definitely was taken out of the race when he was forced to take up. While I disagree with the decision to disqualify him, he was clearly the best horse on the track that day. Naughty Rascal threw the kitchen sink at him, and could do no better than finishing a length behind him. He was excellent this summer in his first two starts, but he was clearly second best when he faced Jonathan’s Way in the Iroquois in September. That one was not great in his two starts after that in the Breeders’ Cup and in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. I’m not convinced that he is going to be as effective at two turns and while the blinkers are likely a response from the incident that led to his disqualification last time out, I worry that they might make him more aggressive in a race where there could be as many as three horses to his inside trying to secure the lead and the rail. Like John Hancock, I see him as a horse that could be vulnerable in this spot, and I don’t see him offering that much value.
7 – Poster (4-1 ML): The winner of the Remsen is back in action in this race. He tried the dirt for the first time at the Big A in December and he was a hard fought winner, just barely holding off Chad Brown’s Aviator Gui at the wire. Prat came with a bold move on the turn and was able to get him to the Winner’s Circle. This is another runner that Prat could have ridden in this race, so that does say something about how he must feel about John Hancock. While I respect his ability and his opinion, I think this Munnings colt is in a great spot here. He looks to be a horse that could be very comfortable sitting in midpack early on in this race. Antonio Gallardo rides this course very well, so I think he’ll sit midpack early on and have him in a striking position as they spin off the turn. While this track can be kind to front end speed on big race days, I think he’s going to have every chance to run down some horses that might not be finishing as strong as they normally do in the stretch. He’s the third choice on the morning line but the only horse to win a graded stakes and a stakes race at two turns on dirt. With the connections for some of the other runners, it’s not inconceivable that he’ll go off as the 4th choice in the wagering. He’s listed at 4-1 and at 3-1 or better, I see him as a win candidate that will also offer value. He’s the pick for me in this race.
8 – Naughty Rascal (6-1 ML): This Florida bred son of Rogueish is the wildcard in this race. He’s never ran a bad race in six career starts for Gerald Bennett, most recently finishing second before having his number put up in the Pasco Stakes here last month. He was clearly second best in that race, but the added distance and the pace scenario could be an equalizer in this race. He’s never gone two turns on the dirt, but one of his four career wins came in the Armed Forces Stakes at Gulfstream, which was a two-turn, one mile race on the turf. Rogueish started once in his career and that race was a six length maiden special weight win at the Fair Grounds. An injury derailed his career, and while he hasn’t covered too many mares, his runners have won 22% of their races (24-107) since 2023. The dam produces runners that know how to win races. This horse always seems to show up and it’s hard to imagine that he’s not going to fire once again in this race.
9 – Smoken Boy (20-1 ML): The Puerto Rican invader gets Paco Lopez in the irons for his Florida debut. He just missed in his debut, but he ran two strong races to win at Camarero, including a 9 ½ length score in a Grade 1 two year old race there. This is a different level of competition, but I don’t hate Sonata Stable bringing this one to the mainland to shoot their shot with a horse that doesn’t appear to have serious competition at home. My issue is that the Equibase Figures are significantly lower than his peers in this race. While we see three year olds take big jumps up in form at times, there’s nothing in his history to date that suggests he’s fast enough to win here.
10 – Very Bold (20-1 ML): Eoin Harty also sends out this Union Rags colt, however, this one is owned by Calumet Farm. His lone win came in a seven furlong race in the slop at Churchill when facing restricted maiden special weight company. While he ran okay in the Pasco last month, if he was going to contend with this level, I thought he would have made up more ground, especially while getting an aggressive pace to close in to. I think he’s a cut below the upper half of this field.
The Verdict: 7-2-8
From a value standpoint, I’m going to take a stand against both favorites, Owen Almighty (#6) and John Hancock (#3). Both are trying two turns for the first time in this race and I think both could be vulnerable to get sucked into a strong battle for the early lead. Poster (#7) is the only runner in this race with a graded stakes win and a stakes win at two turns on the dirt. He should get the right setup and I think we’ll see him take another step forward in this race. I like his chances a lot today.
Four runners in this race are trying two turns for the first time. Of that quartet, Treaty of Rome (#2) is the one that intrigues me the most. Chad Brown has been very deliberate with the horses that he’s brought to Tampa this season, and his record at this meet reflects that. This colt has improved in each of his three starts and he just missed in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes last out. I suspect he’s going to thrive at longer distances and I think he could get a cozy pocket trip here.
Naughty Rascal (#8) is a blue-collar runner that always seems to show up. He’s never finished out of the money in six career starts. He gave Owen Almighty everything he could handle in the Pasco. While that runner was the better horse that day, I don’t think Gonzalez will have to ride him as aggressively in this spot. I think the added distance and the larger field will afford him more patience, which should put him in the mix.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
