The first of three Derby Points Races kicks off with the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct this afternoon. This is the first nine furlong Derby Points race of 2025. In recent years, horses like Early Voting and Hit Show used this race to launch their productive careers. Post time is scheduled for 3:46 PM (ET) for this contest.
Aqueduct, 2/1/25, Race 7: The $250K Withers Stakes:
42 Total Derby points (20/10/6/4/2)
1 – Global Steve: (6-1 ML): Robert Reid ships this undefeated son of Bucchero up I-95 from Parx to make his first start at two turns today. He was an easy maiden winner when going seven furlongs in November. He followed up that effort with a win in the Future Stars Stakes going the same distance at the end of December. It’s hard to envision a son of the turf sprinter, Bucchero, having a stakes winner at nine furlongs on the dirt. Hard Spun is the dam sire though, and her first foal to race is Cagliostro, who has had route success. He has a pair of nice works at Parx in preparation for this race, but I’m leaning in other directions here.
2 – Surfside Moon (15-1 ML): James Lawrence has kept this son of Malibu Moon based at his home base at Delaware Park over the winter. He broke his maiden in a one mile turf race there in August. He followed that up with off the board finishes in both the off the turf Laurel Futurity and the on the turf Awad Stakes here in October. He had a few November works, but was off the work tab for the entire month of December. He has had three recorded works at Delaware since. While I do think this one will be a horse that will appreciate longer distances, he hasn’t shown that he’s fast enough to beat these, and I’m not certain he’s going to be fit enough to hang around in the late stages of this one.
3 – Corvus (12-1 ML): The lone New York bred in the field is coming off a distant second place finish in a state bred allowance race where the winner ran off the screen. He broke his maiden three starts back when going a one turn mile on this oval in a state bred maiden allowance. His lone start against open company came on December 6th, where he finished a non-threatening 4th place in a N1X allowance race. He finished 6 ½ lengths behind the winner and three lengths behind Uncle Jim, who he’ll see again today. I do like that his figures have gradually improved in each of his six starts. This will be his first try at two turns and he does have a nice foundation of races leading up to this race. I think a victory here seems unlikely, but as the longer priced runners go, he’s the one that makes the most sense to me to use underneath in the vertical exotic wagers.
4 – Uncle Jim (3-1 ML): I’d have to think if this City of Light colt was trained by someone other than Brad Cox, he’d be closer to 5-1 or 6-1 on the morning line. Other than the price, there are some things to like with this colt. He broke his maiden debuting at 7+ furlongs at Keeneland, which, in spite of the slow time, is never an easy feat. He drew off to win that race by five lengths while coming from off the pace on a track that was generally speed friendly for the better part of the fall meeting. He shipped here to run in a one mile allowance race the day before the Remsen Stakes. He faced Cyclone State, who was a next out winner when scoring easily in the Jerome Stakes here last month. While I would have liked to have seen a little more from him in that race, his effort wasn’t terrible. He’s bred to handle longer distances, so stretching out to two turns while gradually adding distance in each start, seems like the logical progression. Florent Geroux is not making the trip back to New York to ride. Cox turns over the reins to Jose Lezcano, who is having a very productive winter meet here. I need to get better than his morning line number to think about playing him, but I also think he makes some sense.
5 – Mo Quality (3-1 ML): Christopher Davis doesn’t have a presence in New York this winter, but I think he’s shipping in the horse to beat in this race. This Mo Town colt was second in an average running of the Smarty Jones Stakes. Coal Battle was the clear winner of that race and he was flattered last week when Speed King, who he beat at Remington in December, came back to win the Southwest Stakes. That stakes race in Arkansas was his first try at two turns on the dirt after a pair of solid sprints in Kentucky to start his career. He has enough versatility to set the pace or stalk the early leader. I think the foundation from his last start will give him the fitness to score in this race today.
6 – Captain Cook (5-2 ML): The morning line favorite in this race is this sent out by Rick Dutrow after a dominating maiden score in the slop last out. That race came on this course when going seven furlongs. He debuted in October when finishing 6th in a maiden special weight race at Keeneland. He was put into the Keeneland November Sale where he was sold for $410K to St. Elias Stable. He certainly was everything they hoped he would be last time out, but the water gets deeper here. While obviously the connections are hopeful that this could be a Derby Colt, I’m wondering about distance limitations. Horses sired by Practical Joke continue to prove to be much more effective on the biggest stages when running one turn. While he certainly moved forward last out, a one turn race at seven furlongs and a two turn race at nine furlongs are completely different animals. While there is some rain forecasted for Friday, the Saturday forecast is dry and windy, which should aid in drying out the course. At this distance and at this price, I prefer others in this race.
7 – Omaha Omaha (4-1 ML): There’s little secrets as to what to expect from this Audible colt today. He has been in last place at the first point of call in all five career starts. Two of those races, one at Delaware and the other at Laurel, were easy, come from behind scores in maiden special weight and N1X allowance company. He tried stakes company for the first time in the Jerome Stakes, going a one turn mile here last month. He ran on belatedly, but was never getting to the winner that day. He’s definitely a better two turn horse and his Beyer Figures continue to improve with each start. I don’t see a ton of early speed signed on, so I don’t see a real pace meltdown scenario developing for him. However, there are definitely going to be some runners struggling in the final furlong, and I don’t think he’s going to be one of them. I see him as the main danger to the top pick in this race.
The verdict: 5-7-3
At the end of the day, I think Mo Quality (#5) has been running against better horses and has the proper foundation to get the distance in this race. While the Smarty Jones stakes wasn’t the best edition of that race, I think Coal Battle is a very nice race horse. This colt was second to him that afternoon when making his first start at two turns. He’s worked twice at Turfway and now ships North where he’s not facing many world beaters that stand between him and 20 Derby Points. I think he gets the job done.
If there were more speed signed on for this race, I’d lean toward Omaha Omaha (#7). He’s drawn the outside post, so I see Raul Mena allowing him to get over to the rail to save ground while racing at the back of the pack. He’ll begin a prolonged, grinding rally that will likely get him an “in the money” finish. I have no questions about whether or not he’ll get the distance, so if others are struggling in the late stages of this one, he’ll be the one that keeps finding.
I’ll give the New York bred, Corvus (#3), the slight edge for show in this race over Uncle Jim (#4). While I think there’s no question that Uncle Jim has the higher ceiling, he’s doing something new for the first time. The price on him is already taxed, as he hails from the Brad Cox barn. Corvus keeps getting a little bit better each time, and while he’s also trying something new for the first time by going two turns, he has a deeper foundation and should be offered at a considerably better price.
I’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race in this space, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
