Now that Bob Baffert’s horses are back in play for the Kentucky Derby, these five horse races in Southern California are certainly more meaningful. Baffert sends out three of the five runners in the only stop on the Derby Trail at Los Alamitos Race Course in Cypress, California. Gaming and Getaway Car were second and fourth respectively in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar last month. Both are scheduled to make their last start as a two year old in this Grade 2 1 1/16 mile contest. Post time for this race is scheduled for 3:54 (PT).
Los Alamitos Race Course, 12/14/24, Race 8: The Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity:
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Gaming (2-5 ML): The runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is back for another shot while facing a compact field. Baffert sent out three runners in that race, and on paper, he’s the one that had the least amount of early speed. However, the complexion of that race completely changed when East Avenue blew the break. Martin Garcia and Citizen Bull went to the front and Gaming followed his move. The pace was moderate at best for that kind of race, whereas many handicappers, myself included, were expecting things to be quicker in the early stages. The other dynamic that holds true for this race, is that the jockeys on the Baffert horses aren’t going to do anything to hinder the chances of another runner from that barn. Perhaps had two other runners been out front, Juan Hernandez would have been more aggressive with Getaway Car in the run into the first turn. However, that wasn’t going to happen in that race and none of the three riders for Baffert are going to be overly aggressive. I think Prat is going to have him just off the pace, or on the lead, if he breaks sharp. There’s not much pace to contend with here so assuming he likes the local course, I think he’s going to have every chance to win this race. There’s no value here, but he is the clear front-runner.
2 – Mellencamp (15-1 ML): This Constitution colt is from the same conglomerate that also owns Getaway Car. He’s still a maiden and is likely entered in this race to make sure that it filled. He had a mild trouble line in a maiden special weight race when facing both Rank and Journalism last month. However, the other two runners were clearly better than him in that spot. The other two were clearly better than him that day, so it’s hard to see him taking a big enough step forward to win this race. I’ll pass here.
3 – Getaway Car (3-1 ML): This son of Curlin was brilliant in his first two starts in sprint races at Del Mar, easily beating some smaller fields. He struggled in the Del Mar Futurity though when setting an aggressive pace which set the table for Gaming to win that race. He had the outside post in the American Pharoah Stakes, so he tracked Citizen Bull who led all the way while setting a moderate pace. The Breeders’ Cup played out the same, with Citizen Bull securing the lead and Gaming tracking from the outside. He tipped out with a three wide bid, but flattened out late. He hasn’t had a chance to be on the lead in one of these two turn races, so that may be the plan for Hernandez here. Mellencamp has better early foot, but they took the blinkers off of him, which tells me they want to see Getaway Car on the lead. It’s a long stretch and the pedigree to win these kinds of races is there. I do think Gaming is better right now, beating him on the square both times. He’s likely going to be the second choice in this race, and I’m not sure the odds disparity in a small field is going to equate to getting true value.
4 – Rank (15-1 ML): He’s another maiden and the first of two horses not trained by Bob Baffert here. Doug O’Neill sends out this son of Honor A.P. He was second best when the pace was sharper in that maiden race last month. He was no match for Getaway Car or Gaming in his first three starts. He finished 4th two back to Dr Ruben M, who could do no better than 4th in the Remington Springboard Mile last night at Remington. There is no one the caliber of the top three horses here in that race in Oklahoma. The reality is that up to this point, he’s been a cut below the top three runners in this race, and with five races already under his belt, it’s hard to envision him coming out on top for the first time today.
5 – Journalism (6-1 ML): The most expensive runner in this race is trained by Michael McCarthy. He came from midpack while closing into an aggressive pace at Del Mar last month, breaking his maiden in his second career start. He cost his owners $825K at the Fasig-Tipton Sale in August of last year. He’s the first foal to run from the Grade 2 winning mare, Mopotism, who was also Grade 1 placed multiple times in her career. He looked very good winning his first try at two turns, drawing off to win by 2 ½ widening lengths. He definitely has more to offer and certainly could move forward in his third career start. I’m not sure if he’s ready to beat a horse like Gaming just yet, especially in a spot where he could be a little pace compromised. However, the long stretch here at Los Al, should be to his liking, and I see him as the biggest threat to the favorite. Again, I’m not sure the value is going to be as it should, but I see him having a higher ceiling than the other three runners that will be trying to tackle the heavy favorite.
The verdict: 1-5-3
It’s not a sexy pick by any stretch of the imagination, and there are definitely horses that struggle to run their best races on this oval. However, on paper, Gaming should win this race. He’s better than his four rivals at this point in their careers. He was strong in his two turn debut, so there’s no concern with the distance. He should be able to sit a comfortable trip behind the leaders going into the turn, and from there, Prat should have several chances to come and tackle the leaders.
Journalism is a little more interesting to me than Getaway Car at this point. He;s making his third career start and he looked good in his two turn debut. I’m not sure the dynamics of this race set up for him to have his best chance to win. However, I do think he’s going to give an honest account of himself. If the pace does heat up, I think he could be the one finishing fastest of all.
Getaway Car is going to have every chance to win this race, but at this point, he hasn’t shown that he’s capable of beating his stablemate. Baffert worked him six furlongs twice in preparation for this race, which was some he does when he’s trying to build stamina in his runners. I think we’re going to see him go to the lead today, something that hasn’t happened in his last two starts. Perhaps that will be where he fires his best shot at two turns. He’s not impossible, I just don’t think the value is going to be there. At 5-1 or better is where I’d start thinking about trying him to win, and under these circumstances, I don’t see that happening.
I’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race in this space, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
