Until the Virginia Derby was re-positioned on the calendar, the Gotham Stakes was the lone, one turn race that offered Derby Points in North America. This one mile contest is typically a fascinating better race, but it’s a race that has had little impact on the Kentucky Derby this century. This year, the three shortest priced runners in this Grade 3 field were all bred in New York. Post time for this race, which is the first of three Derby Points Races, is scheduled for 4:18 (ET)
Aqueduct, Saturday 3/1/25, Race 8: The G3 Gotham Stakes
105 Total Derby points (50-25-15-10-5)
1 – Scorching (10-1 ML): John Charalambous brings this Ontario bred colt to town for his first start on a traditional dirt course. He’s been working over at Belmont on the training track there since the middle of January. He has a pair of wins in races exclusively for horses that were foaled in Canada. One thing to note is that he was able to compete with race day Lasix in those races, but that is not an option for him this afternoon. His races at Woodbine were visually impressive, but I think this is a whole new ball of wax and he’s doing a lot of new things this afternoon. I’m siding against him in this spot.
2 – Normandy Coast (15-1 ML): Eddie Kenneally brings this two time winner up north after a respectable allowance win at the Fair Grounds in his most recent start. He battled throughout the length of the stretch when making his first start in six months. He prevailed by a neck to win his second straight start. He stretches out to one mile today after some solid workouts in February in New Orleans. None of the dam’s other three foals had success in their initial dirt route. I prefer others in this race.
3 – Calling Card (6-1 ML): I was confused when this one was entered in the Battaglia last weekend, because I thought this was a race his connections likely had in mind for him when he dominated a state bred maiden special weight field by 17+ lengths here in November. Maker brought him to Oaklawn and the Fair Grounds. He was wide when he finished third behind Sandman in Arkansas in allowance company. Despite not winning either of his Derby Points races, Sandman’s efforts have been very strong. He finished 8th, beaten five lengths in a traffic-filled running of the Lecomte on a sloppy course in January. Blinkers go on and he’s cutting back in distance today. While I think both of his last two races are a little better than they look on paper, I think he’s going to be a more effective horse in one turn races. Blinkers go on and Kendrick Carmouche gets the assignment for the first time. I think he gets the right pace set up after facing tougher fields in his last two starts. He’s the class of the field and he’s likely going to be the third choice in the wagering. I see him as the one to beat in this race.
4 – Sacrosanct (3-1 ML): The undefeated New York breds are starting side by side, as he’ll get inside position on Sand Devil, who brakes in the next stall over. Manny Franco and Brad Cox have teamed up for four straight wins to start his career, including three scores in New York bred stakes races as a two year old. He’s sired by Honest Mischief, who carries a $7,500 stud fee, however the fact that he was purchased last spring for $260K, tells me this horse looked the part early on as a two year old. He’s already earned over $500K on the racetrack and he looks primed for a strong three year old campaign. Cox’s horses continue to be live at Aqueduct. He he’s won with 20% of his starters, but 76% of his runners have finished in the money. He makes his first start in nearly three months today for an outfit that is typically sharp off the bench. I’m not sure I love him at this distance though. He did win here in October in the Sleepy Hollow when going the one turn mile, and he ran a nice figure while doing so. I think this distance is going to be at the edge of his range. At shorter odds, I’m not sold that he’s going to be finishing as strong as some of the others in this one. I respect him, but of the shorter priced runners, I think he’s the one to fade.
5 – Sand Devil (9-5 ML): Linda Rice sends out the morning line favorite for his first start in open company. He was sent off at 1-5 in the Damon Runyon Stakes last month and he fought tooth and nail to narrowly defeat National Identity. However, that one ran a huge race and this Violence colt put up a career top Beyer Speed Figure in victory. His first two wins were dominating performances where he won by a combined total 16 ½ lengths, so it was a positive sign to see him win a race in a true dog fight. He showed an ability to rate when winning on debut back in December and that might be what he’s going to need to do to have his best shot in this race. There is a lot of speed signed on, and in some cases, that speed is from horses that are unproven at this distance. I don’t think he wants to get caught up in a speed duel, but I also don’t think he wants to be too far behind the pacesetters. He has a lot of upside and should do very well in the New York bred races at longer distances. He makes a lot of sense in this graded stakes race and I do think his talent could translate to 1 ⅛ miles, should he run well enough to be under consideration for the Wood Memorial next month.
6 – Pagode (30-1 ML): Longshot specialist Paulo Lobo brings this maiden winner in to town from Turfway. He scored on debut when going 6 ½ furlongs there in January. Lobo opted to skip the Battaglia Memorial last week or bypass a N1X allowance race in favor of this spot. While that might not be a terribly uncommon move this time of year, his connections didn’t pay for him to be nominated to the Triple Crown races. He’s worked well over the dirt at the Thoroughbred Training Center in Kentucky. He closed well to win last time in spite of being on the wrong lead in the stretch. Clearly, his connections think highly of him, but I do think he’s going to be outclassed by the New York bred trio in this race.
7 – Flood Zone (12-1 ML): The other Brad Cox runner in this field also had some success in a state bred program. This son of Frosted added Lasix last time out and put up a huge figure in his second career start when facing fellow Florida breds in a maiden special weight race at Gulfstream. He appears to have been privately purchased after that big effort in his last start and this will be the first time he runs for Cox. Reylu Gutierrez retains the mount, despite not having much history with Cox. His recent works at Payson aren’t great, but he wasn’t working that fast in the mornings for Victor Barboza either. He’s going to have to prove that he can be as effective in the afternoons without having race day medication. I have mixed feelings about him, but if he can run back to his last start, he could be competitive with this group.
8 – McAfee (10-1 ML): This Cloud Computing colt quietly debuted in a restricted maiden special weight at Churchill in November. He was 10-1 on the morning line and he drew off to win by over three lengths. What was interesting about that race is that as a half-brother to Thorpedo Anna, he was ice cold on the board that day and he still handled his business. He came back to lose by a head in a $50K starter allowance contest at Churchill where he took more money at the windows, going off at 9-5.He can run from off the pace, which might be an asset with this field and he’s been based at Belmont for Rick Dutrow since the conclusion of the Churchill meet. He’s another one that wasn’t nominated to the Triple Crown, so the fact they’re choosing to run him in this spot as opposed to a N1X allowance race is a little curious. He’s another runner that I have some mixed feelings about, but I do think his running style fits the pace flow in this race.
9 – Garamond (8-1 ML): Chad Brown sends out this Uncle Mo colt out for his second career start. He handled his business when debuting at Tampa for Chad Brown last month, scoring handily in a 6 ½ furlong maiden special weight race. He’s been working well at Payson Park in Florida since then and now moves up the class ladder to face graded stakes company for the first time. Chad Brown has been cold with the limited number of starters that he’s sent out at the Big A over the winner, winning with only 2 of 27 runners. This horse is bred to be able to handle longer distances, but this is a much different race than the maiden special weight sprint at Tampa. I’m leaning against this one, because I think I’d need closer to 15-1 to think about getting involved. With Brown and Casteallanos teaming up here, I’m not sure that is going to be a possibility. I’ll try to beat this one.
10 – My Mitole (15-1 ML): Since going 0-2 in five furlong maiden special weight races on this course in the spring, this Mitole colt has found new life when going one mile on this oval over the last few months. He broke his maiden in a maiden/optional claiming race here in November, when making his first start since June. He followed up that effort with an impressive score in an optional claiming/starter allowance race here last month. He’s clearly grown into a better horse over the last several months for Carlos Martin. He likes the track and distance, so I don’t hate that they’re taking their shot with this one here. While I think a win in this race is going to be asking a lot, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that he’ll hot the board in this race.
The Verdict: 3-5-10
While it’s not creative, I think this race, which has been such a fascinating betting race over the last few years, is going to come down to some of the shorter priced runners today. This trio of horses certainly suggests that this is one of the better three year old crops of runners bred in the Empire State in recent years.
I do really like Calling Card (#3) to beat the other two runners though. He’s coming out of tougher races at two turns, but he showed off a ton of ability in his lone start on this course at this distance. I think there’s going to be a lively battle on the front end for the early lead, and as long as closers have a fair shot on this course, I think he’ll be waiting in the wings before coming over the top with a strong late rally to get up for the win.
Between the undefeated runners, I think Sand Devil (#5) is more desirable than Sacrosanct (#4). He’s put up strong figures in each start and looked very good when winning in a dogfight against a worthy opponent last time out. At one mile, he’s bred to have more stamina than Sacrosanct.
A longer priced runner to think about underneath could be My Mitole (#10). I liked his last two efforts at this distance on this course. While he wasn’t facing top level competition, he still ran with a lot of confidence. The distance is a question mark for some of the other runners, but he’s already aced that test.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
