The Grade 3 Holy Bull starts the Kentucky Derby Points Series in South Florida. Horses like Go For Gin and Barbaro helped put this race on the map. In recent years, Tiz the Law and White Abarrio were recent winners of this race that went on to win multiple Grade 1 races. Last year, Hades was the upset winner when Fierceness was less than stellar in his first start after winning the Breeders’ Cup. This year, there are seven runners, including a pair of horses that fetched seven figures at auction. Post time for this Grade 3 contest is scheduled for 5:13 (ET).
Gulfstream Park, 2/1/25, Race 11: The Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes:
42 Total Derby points (20/10/6/4/2)
1 –Kinetic Control (15-1 ML): Dale Romans sends out this son of Not This Time for his 2025 debut. He ran four times as a two year old. He ran three nice races with a Keeneland clunker tossed in between. When looking at his rivals in this race, he hasn’t been fast enough to compete with them. Obviously things can change quickly with these three year olds, but it feels unlikely that he’s going to be good enough to win this race.
2 – Ferocious (9-5 ML): This colt that cost $1,300,000 in March of 2024 debuted like a good thing at the Spa this summer, but he hasn’t had the same punch when facing Grade 1 competition. While he was facing prime competition, he didn’t seem to have the same power finish when going two turns. You could make the argument that East Avenue took advantage of a track that was playing kind to inside speed in the Breeders’ Futurity. You could then argue that he was pace compromised when catching an unexpectedly slow pace on a speed favoring course in the Breeders’ Cup. Citizen Bull will run an hour before this race, so we’ll have a feeling for how the form from that race is holding up. Gaming, who was the runner-up, was bad last weekend in the Southwest, although he didn’t have a very good trip in that race. I do like seeing this horse get blinkers for the first time in this race. He is live, but I don’t love him as the favorite in this race.
3 – Tappan Street (3-1 ML): Brad Cox trains this million dollar colt for WinStar and CHC Inc., and he also trains a $410K colt named Gunmetal for the same owners. Both colts ran big races to win on debut, but the horse that ran the bigger figure was Gunmetal, and he’s going to run in the Swale Stakes at seven furlongs earlier in the card. This Into Mischief colt will run for the Derby Points here. His maiden breaking effort came on this course when going seven furlongs at the end of December. He was impressive that day and his barn has great numbers with runners going from sprints to routes. The dam was stakes placed at nine furlongs on the dirt. Her first foal to race has been more effective on the turf than on dirt. Cox has Luis Saez riding both colts this afternoon. I think his stablemate might have the higher ceiling. This one certainly could win this race, but I prefer others/
4 – Guns Loaded (5-2 ML): The winner of the Mucho Macho Man Stakes here last month is looking for his third straight win. He was a respectable second when debuting at Saratoga this summer. He missed some time and returned with a convincing maiden win at Churchill. He led every step of the day last out,but he did get a little leg weary late. I think those one turn mile races can be more demanding than the two turn, 1 1/16 races. Irad Ortiz picks up the mount with Saez riding for Cox. Ortiz has been winning with everything at this meet, scoring at a gaudy 26% of the time. I think he’s going to go to the front and play catch me if you can. He has a two turn pedigree, so I think this distance will suit him fine.
5 – He’s Not Joking (15-1 ML): Josie Carroll sends out this Practical Joke colt for his 2025 debut today. He was the winner of the Grade 3 Grey Stakes at Woodbine going 1 1/16 miles on the Tapeta course there. She brought him to Churchill to run in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes there at the end of November. He did encounter trouble, but he didn’t seem to love racing on the dirt. He’s been working consistently at Palm Meadows in preparation for his first start as a three year old. I’m going to watch this one from him.
6 – Burning Glory (8-1 ML): Bill Mott sends out this Into Mischief colt for Juddmonte after breaking his maiden at Churchill in his last start. This is a runner that has some tactical speed, but is quite comfortable being behind runners in the early stages. His full brother had not had much success. Tyler Gaffalione rode him last time and he’ll get the return call today. He was a decent second in his only start at two turns, but he’ll need to get faster to win this race today. Mott won this race for the first time in 2023 with Rocket Can. I prefer others in this race.
7 – Burnham Square (5-1 ML): This Liam’s Map colt might be the most interesting runner in this race. He ran well when he was entered in a $150K maiden claiming sprint at Keeneland at first asking. He wasn’t fully cranked that day and it’s clear the barn thought they had a two turn horse on their hands. He was a game third behind Monet’s Magic at Churchill two starts back, but he certainly seemed to feel right at home when coming here. He went to the front after sitting in 4th early on. There was a seam along the rail and he took full advantage of it. The second choice in the wagering was all out at the quarter pole, but he wasn’t going on this colt, who powered home as a much the best winner. He doesn’t need to be on the lead as he’s proved he can handle being in behind runners. The dam was a Grade 2 winner on the turf and this colt feels like he has the potential to be her best runner. I think he’s dangerous here.
The verdict: 7-4-2
Despite facing some serious blue-bloods in this race, I really like the maiden score from Burnham Square (#7) last time out. We know he can handle the distance and he’s shown that he can run his race from anywhere on the track. He paired his last two Beyer Figures, so this could be a spot where he takes another step forward. I think he can pull off the mild upset today.
He’s likely going to have to run down Guns Loaded (#4), who is a committed front-runner at this point in his career. He’s a stakes winner that scored over this course. He’ll have to answer the two-turn question today, but I do think he’s up to the task. Irad Ortiz is upgrading so many of his mounts on this course this season, so seeing him named to ride feels important.
Ferocious (#2) is the morning line favorite that gets some mixed reviews from me. On one hand, he was awesome in his debut and he had some excuses for less than stellar efforts more recently. Blinkers going on should be extremely helpful for this colt. On the other hand, we’ve yet to see him show the ability of running his best race when he’s going two turns. That is a decent concern for me, especially if he;s going to be favored in this spot. I’ll be careful with how I use him here.
I’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race in this space, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
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