Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby – The Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes – By Eric Solomon

As has become the norm in Southern California, these Derby Prep races have become very Bob Baffert-centric. The only difference this year is that these runners are all eligible to earn points toward entry into the Derby. The three serious contenders for this race are all trained by the Hall of Fame Trainer, the most notable runner being winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Citizen Bull. He’ll face four other runners, two of which are from the same barn and the same ownership conglomerate.  Post time for this Grade 3 contest is scheduled for 1:28 (PT).

Santa Anita Park, 2/1/25, Race 4: The Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes:

42 Total Derby points (20/10/6/4/2)

1  – Madaket Road (7-2 ML): The other, other Baffert runner is the third choice in this race, and he’ll move back to graded stakes company after breaking his maiden in a six furlong sprint here on Opening Day. Baffert debuted him in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes, going seven furlongs at Del Mar in November. He was scheduled to debut at Churchill the day before, but he was on the AE list, so he never made the trip. He was second in that race, behind Bulliard. I’m a little torn with this runner, because I think he could sit a sweet trip in this spot. I don’t think he wants to go with Rodriguez and Clock Tower in the early stages of this race, and I’m not sure Citizen Bull is going to be as effective as a stalker. He sat a stalking trip in his victory and drew off to win with ease. The downside is that the dam’s runners are typically more effective in one turn races on the dirt. I do trust Frankie Dettori in these big spots, but I don’t know if he’s going to have enough horse to win this one mile contest. . 

2 – Citizen Bull (6-5 ML): The name in this race is this Into Mischief colt that was the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He has three wins in four starts, two of which came in Grade 1 races, making him the easy choice of the Eclipse Winning Two Year Colt from last year. He’s a different horse when he’s on the lead, as evidenced by his last two wins. He used his gate speed to make the lead in the American Pharoah where he finished ahead of the Baffert trained Getaway Car and McKinzie Street. The pace scenario of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was flipped upside down when East Avenue had a disastrous break and Getaway Car was flat-footed early. He made the lead with relative ease on a speed-favoring course and was allowed to set a moderate pace where he was not really challenged. On paper in this race, it would seem that Rodriguez would have more natural speed, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Baffert wanted that one on the lead to see how this one would respond in a stalking role. He seems to be working very well for his seasonal debut. He’s going to be tough to deal with. 

3 – Rodriguez (7-5 ML): This son of Authentic was sparkling when breaking his maiden in gate to wire fashion last month. He posted a 101 Beyer Speed Figure for that front-running score when he made his first start at two turns. The dam has produced several useful horses, the most notable being the winner of the 2017 Southwest Stakes, One Liner. He has two sharp works since that race and will face winners for the first time. I think he is going to be the pacesetter, assuming he breaks well from the gate. Juan Hernandez has become the go-to rider for Baffert in Southern California, and he’ll retain the assignment after scoring with him last time out. He’s going to have to contend with Clock Tower early though and I think there’s a chance that these two will hook up early. 

4 – Clock Tower (10-1 ML): Wesley Ward picks an interesting race for this son of Not This Time to make his three year old debut. He’s the second most accomplished runner in this race, scoring in Grade 3 company when winning the Cecil B. DeMille Stakes here in December. Both of his wins came on the turf though and while he ran okay in his first two career tries on the dirt, nothing about those efforts made me think I was watching a horse that was going to win a two turn, graded stakes race on the dirt. I see him as a pace factor in this race, but nothing more. 

5 – Valentines Candy (30-1 ML): This California bred is taking a huge shot, and perhaps the connections were slightly greased by the racing office to enter in this race in order to make sure it filled. He was 6th in the King Glorious Stakes for California breds in his last start. He went off at 115-1 in that race, so it’s hard to imagine him finishing better than 4th in this spot. 

The verdict: 2-1-3

What makes these Baffert heavy prep races so difficult to handicap is the fact that we’re often working with small fields where he is holding multiple runners, that often all have a similar running style. All three of his runners have tactical speed and two are proven front-running commodities. However, as we saw in the Breeders’ Cup, Baffert’s other entrants aren’t going to get in the way of their stablemate. Irad Ortiz and Gaming weren’t going to try to duel with Citizen Bull. They were content to track a moderated tempo and shoot their shot in the stretch. Citizen Bull is a sharp gate horse and Martin Garcia is a very good gate jockey, so this feels like a natural pairing. However, the presence of Clock Tower certainly muddies the picture a little bit. He’s made the lead at the first point of call in all five career starts. I do think Rodriguez has more natural speed than Citizen Bull though, so if there is a speed duel, I’d think those are the horses that are going to engage. Citizen Bull should get the perfect stalking trip, in behind those runners. He has never shown that he can win in that style though, so he will have to prove he can do something new. However, I think his class will prevail in this spot. 

Madaket Road is the one that could get the trip that best suits his running style. I have definite distance questions about him in the long term, but one mile on the dirt should still be within his range. I still would want better than his 7-2 morning line price though, and when looking at the two longshots in this race, I just don’t see that happening. Assuming Clock Tower competes, which is fair to wonder because Ward does scratch his horses at a high rate, I think he has a better chance to win than Rodriguez. However, if Clock Tower stays in the barn, Rodriguez might be the top pick for me.

I’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race in this space, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.