For the most part, the American racing calendar is divided into two seasons; The Road to the Triple Crown and the Road to the Breeders’ Cup. There is some overlap at times with these seasons, and never is that overlap bigger when you’re looking at the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. While Derby Points were first offered in September with the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill, this is really where the Road to the Derby begins. Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert have won the last five runnings of this race, so it’s no surprise that they train a total of four of the seven runners in this race. While the defection of Gaudreau is a big story, this race figures to come down to a Pletcher and Baffert showdown.
10/30/26, Race #9: The Grade 1 Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented By TAA (1 1/16 miles on dirt, for two year olds). Purse: $2,000,000. Post Time: 4:55 PM (EDT)
1: Damavand (20-1 ML): This son of Not This Time is one two runners that Todd Pletcher is sending out in this Grade 1 Contest. He was a winner on this course and at this distance earlier in the month. In fact, he and American History were the only two winners for Todd Pletcher at the recently concluded Keeneland Fall Meeting. Amo Racing USA paid one million dollars for this colt. They have not been shut about spending money and trying to win some of these big races. They’ve had in the money finishers in the Juvenile Turf Sprint and Hill Road was third in this race at long odds two years ago. While the future is still bright for this colt, I think this is a big step up and he’s not going to be able to meet the moment.
2: Gaudreau (SCR)
3: Salahudin (6-1 ML): Bob Baffert kept a string of horses in Kentucky over the summer for the first time this year and this Uncle Mo was one of them. He’s never been beaten, scoring on debut at Ellis and then coming back a few weeks later to score in the Juvenile Stakes there. He advanced to graded stakes company and came from off the pace to score in the Iroquois. That was a big effort despite breaking poorly and having to come from off the pace. He typically was closer to the pace in both of his first two races, but I don’t think he’s as quick as Hughes, so I think it’s possible that Gaffalione will opt for a stalking trip with this one, perhaps leading the second flight of runners. The defection of Gaudreau could work in his favor though. If he is sharper out of the gate, he might be able to make the lead, and let Prat assume the stalking role with Hughes as was the case for him in the American Pharoah. He’s had five sharp works since that race, so I do feel that is as good of a spot as any for him to try two turns for the first time. I suspect he’s a notch below his stablemate. Jose Ortiz rode both him and Coach Pope in their last starts and Ortiz opted to ride Coach Pope, which I do find interesting.
4: Earth Song (20-1 ML, Update, Reported as scratched): With Gaudreau scratching out of this race, this Justify colt will be the only runner that competed in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont to be running in this year’s Breeders’ Cup. He was impressive on debut at Monmouth in September, scoring by over 11 lengths that day. However, scratches absolutely killed that field and he only had to beat two rivals. He ran okay in the Champagne, finishing a little less than ten lengths behind U.S.S. Valor that day. He’s making progress, but this is a big ask today. If you’re trying to make a case for a longshot here, the fact that he’s a half brother to Further Ado might be a selling point. That colt is the morning line favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile here tomorrow and he absolutely loves racing at Keeneland. He ran races that were just okay prior to coming here for his third start last year at two turns. He went on to dominate that maiden field by 20 lengths and posted a huge Beyer Figure while doing so. He came back to win the Grade 1 Blue Grass here with ease this spring. The flip side to that coin is that the mare has foaled three other runners and they finished off the board in their respective starts here at Keeneland. While I think he’s up against it here, there are three big prices in this field and if I were going to side with one of them, it would be with him.
5: Hughes (EVEN ML): After his huge effort to score in the American Pharoah in his last start, Bob Baffert’s colt figures to be one of the shortest prices of the weekend. My one concern for him going into that race was that his one turn figures were flatlining a bit. However, he showed he was ready to take the next step by dominating his five rivals that afternoon. He came to Kentucky a few weeks ago where he’s been preparing with Baffert’s string at Churchill. He certainly looked like a typical Baffert runner on the track in the mornings in his two local drills since that last race. He’s faced small fields in all four races, but he’s only going to be up against six rivals here this afternoon. While Baffert’s horses have struggled at Keeneland, I think he’s a worthy favorite in this race.
6: American History (9-2 ML): The winner of the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity will try to follow in the footsteps of Ted Noffey and Forte by winning both that race and this race for Todd Pletcher. Pletcher has won three of the last four Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and this colt announced himself as a candidate for this year’s running when he beat Coach Pope earlier this month. He didn’t break all that well, as he started off in last as they turned down the backstretch. He tipped outside and began to advance with Coach Pope began a prolonged duel with Q B Rocket. They continued that duel as they turned for home and after coming wide into the stretch, this colt grinding past the dueling leaders for a one length score. The expectations have been high from the jump as this colt cost $825K as a yearling. I didn’t think he was going to take that big of a jump forward and perhaps the duel that percolated between the second and third place finishers helped his cause. He’s had two solid drills at Keeneland in preparation for this race. If they go fast early, he might be primed to pull off another mild upset with this field.
7: Coach Pope (4-1 ML): He was bet down to the 3-5 favorite in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity last month and Jose Ortiz put him in a good spot early on. He drew the rail, but allowed Q B Rocket to secure the inside lane. He tipped out into the two path to press the issue and engaged in a lengthy duel with his rival. Perhaps Jose Ortiz asked him too soon, but after watching his maiden score two back, I was expecting him to kick clear of the pricy Cox runner, but that one dug in. He inched by late, but could not hold off American History. That was his first try at two turns and I could see him improving off that effort. However, I think American History is going to be better and I think Hughes is just a better horse than he is right now. People will still see the maiden race where he finished in front of U.S.S. Valor, and I think that will keep his price below a number that I’m comfortable playing him at. Perhaps I’m selling his stock too soon, but I’m looking for alternatives.
8: He Is No Lie (15-1 ML): The runner-up in the Iroquois is making his 5th career start this afternoon for Doug O’Neill. O’Neill had success with Nyquist winning this race on this course in 2015, but I don’t think this horse is anywhere close to where Nyquist was coming into this race. He has four starts and three of them were solid efforts. He romped on debut at Santa Anita and then flew across the country to run in the Bashford Manor at Churchill. He opened up at the top of the stretch, but he could not hold off Blessed Flyer that day. That one was recently off the board in the Street Sense Stakes last week. He came back to California for the Best Pal where a bad stumble at the start cost him any chance of hanging with Hughes, who was the better horse that day. He came back to Kentucky to run in the Iroquois where he stretched out to the one turn mile. I thought he was vulnerable in that race, but he was game, battling with Salahudin throughout the stretch and never really giving up, losing by less than a length at the wire. To be fair, he had an easier trip than the winner, and I think there could be definite distance limitations with this one. Even with Gaudreau not running, he’s drawn the outside post, and if he wants to make the lead, I think Rosario is going to have to use him hard to get it. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him caught three or four wide on the first turn, which only makes this task tougher. He’s not going to be on my tickets.
The Verdict: 6-5-4
This is one of those races where I’ll be asking myself; how does Hughes (#5) lose this race? I think he’s probably the most likely winner, but we’ve seen this movie before. Baffert came here with a heavy favorite in 2022 and Cave Rock was not able to get the job done. I think the pace could be a factor, because there is a scenario where he is between rivals, and often times young horses can feel uncomfortable in those tight spots. If Prat, who is riding him for the first time, gets a little aggressive and pushes the button on him too soon, it could set the table for a horse like American History (#6). While I thought that the duel between Coach Pope (#7) and Q B Rocket helped him out, he still overcame a slow start and was able to nail the dueling front-runners late. I think he might be a little close to the action today, but I trust him coming on late over a course where he has experienced success. If he’s closer to 5-1 and Hughes is at even money, I think there is value on this colt from a barn that has had recent success in these races. He’s the narrow pick over the favorite.
