Road to the Kentucky Derby – Alex’s Pedigree Paddock
Alex Henry | March 30th 2024
Goal: Highlight interesting pedigrees of 2024 Kentucky Derby contenders who are also my best bets for the race.
Triple Header: UAE Derby | Florida Derby | Arkansas Derby
This is a packed weekend with three contentious Kentucky Derby prep races. Therefore, I’ll focus on my best bet in the UAE Derby, and write smaller pieces on my Florida and Arkansas Derby picks.
UAE Derby
Forever Young (February 2021)
Owner: Susumu Fujita| Breeder: (Japan) Northern Racing
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Real Steel* (JPN) o/o Forever Darling by Congrats
Inbreeding: S4xM4xM5 Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer S5xM5xM5, Secretariat S5xM5
True Nicks: N/A
JHRA Yearling Select Sale ’22: ~$712,279 USD (107,800,000 JPY)
Most racing fans are well aware that UAE Derby winners, as good as they may be, cannot win the Kentucky Derby. Highly regarded Thunder Snow performed his best rodeo championship routine in the 2017 Kentucky Derby as he very likely despised the unfamiliar muddy going. Mendelssohn won the 2018 UAE Derby by 181/2 lengths and was so highly regarded, he was bet down to 5-1 in the Kentucky Derby and subsequently finished last. Most recently, Japan-bred globe galloper Derma Sotogake won the 2023 UAE Derby in an eye-catching 1:55 4/5 by 51/2 lengths and did not disgrace himself finishing 6th in the Kentucky Derby and has a legitimate shot at the Dubai World Cup $12 million purse today. Forever Young so far has proved he’s no one-hit wonder, winning the G3 JBC Nisai Yushun (9F) and G1 Zennippon Nisai Yushun (8F) as a 2-year-old and the G3 Saudi Derby (8F) in February. And although he was foaled in Japan, his pedigree has strong ties to the USA as well.
Forever Young’s sire Real Steel is Japanese royalty blended with plenty of US influence. A fine racehorse, he found himself unfortunately born in the same generation as top-tier runners Duramente, Maurice, and Kitasan Black. Despite this, he won the 2016 Dubai Turf (9F), although none of his familiar foes made the trip to Dubai. It took more than 12 months for Real Steel to find his next win, the turf G2 Mainichi Okan (9F). In his 17-race career, Real Steel almost always showed up, running in the money 11 of 17 times and winning over $7 million. His sire Deep Impact is my favorite non-USA bred horse of all time and won the 2005 Japanese Triple Crown (turf) and has since sired male and female triple crown winners, Contrail and Gentildonna. Offspring of Deep Impact are usually enriched with stamina influence, as he comfortably won 2 G1 races over ~15F (~1.875 miles) during his illustrious career. Deep Impact is truly his father’s son, sired by the foremost foundation sire of Japan Sunday Silence, his 1,614 offspring have won 64.2% of their starts at an average distance of ~9F, and have won over $508 million USD. Reel Steel’s dam, Loves Only Me, was unraced. However, even casual US-based racing fans may recall a similarly named mare winning the 2021 Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf (11F). Indeed, Loves Only Me is the dam of Loves Only You, said Breeders Cup winner. This family is full of global G1 winners and the future is extremely bright for the Deep Impact sire-line.
Forever Darling is a Kentucky-bred stakes winner with intimate ties to 2024 US-bred stakes winners and legendary Japanese stakes winners as well. Winner of over $200,000, Forever Darling won the G2 Santa Ynez stakes (6.5F) and was second in the listed Santa Anita Angels Flight stakes (7F) as well. Since Japanese pedigrees are flush with stamina, she was an attractive private purchase for Japanese buyer Kasumi Yoshida. Yoshida has purchased several accomplished US- and UK-bred mares, including Defining Purpose, The Mackem Bullet, and East, among others. Forever Darling was imported to Japan in foal to Frankel (GB), that foal named Mon Favori won thrice and is her most successful to date, earning over $600,000 USD. Her dam Darling My Darling has been an excellent producer, and her family has found tremendous success in both hemispheres. Her daughter Heavenly Love (by Malibu Moon) won the G1 Darley Alcibiades stakes and is the dam of a colt that currently sits atop many racing enthusiasts Derby list, Sierra Leone (by Gun Runner). Via her dam Roamin Rachel, Darling By Darling is a half-sister to Zenno Rob Roy, Japanese Horse of the Year and earner of over $10 million USD. Zenno Rob Roy won 3 top-level Japanese G1 turf races back-to-back, over 10F, 12F, and 13F, respectively.
Combined with the significant Japanese stamina influence of Real Steel, Forever Darling’s American speed has produced a colt that wants distance but can be handy enough to rate midpack if needed before overtaking stretch leaders. From my view, Forever Young did not enjoy the deep sandy surface of the King Abdulaziz racecourse and accepted the role as chief grinder to wear down Book’em Danno in very late stretch. Since Meydan is a more conventional dirt track, Forever Young should be entirely fit enough to romp today. Japan also utilizes a dirt-sand blend for their dirt tracks, understandably more tiring than a tight US-style dirt track. I’ll be wagering that Forever Young will be pressing the leading horses until the sweeping far turn and will have the long Meydan stretch to catch his rivals. This colt has plenty to overcome today, however, I think he’ll have more than one global chart-topping hit.
