A very good nine horse field has been assembled for this Grade 2 contest. Last year, the two year old champion from 2022, Forte, finished in front of the eventual Kentucky Derby winner Mage.
This year Mage’s full brother Dornoch makes his seasonal debut against the winner of the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, Locked. They’ll be facing the top two finishers from an extremely fast maiden special weight race here at the end of January. Speak Easy won that race for Pletcher with Victory Avenue finishing second. These four appear to be the principal players today.
The first post for the marathon 14 race program is set for 11:15 (ET) with the Fountain of Youth scheduled to go off at 6:10 (ET).
Gulfstream Park Saturday 3/2/24, Race 14: The Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes
100 Total Derby points (50/20/15/10/5)
1 – Speak Easy (9-2 ML, 20-1 Circa): He caught a lot of attention when he won on debut in a maiden special weight race on the Pegasus World Cup undercard back in January. Todd Pletcher entered him in an allowance race yesterday but he opted to take a swing against the big boys instead in this spot. He drew the rail for that start and he broke well, but Victory Avenue was a bit quicker. Irad Ortiz was very decisive early on, angling him out and putting him in the two path where he set his sights on the favored frontrunner. He made his move on the turn and battled hard to stay in front of his rival, winning by just under two lengths. He posted a Beyer Speed Figure of 100, which is definitely rare for a first time starter. He’s drawn well, starting on the rail once again, but this time in a race that starts on the first turn. I don’t love that Pletcher was going back and forth about which race to enter him in, and I also don’t love it for his stablemate, Locked, that Pletcher entered both runners. It will be interesting to see what tactics Irad is going to take today with him. He was forwardly placed, but he wasn’t on the lead in his debut, so if he wants to concede the lead to either Victory Avenue or Dornoch, I think he could still win this race. Over the last five years, Pletcher has won 25% of his races with horses going from sprints to routes in their second career starts. When talking about a maiden winner in their second start, going from a sprint to a route, his horses have won 27% of the time in that span. I’m very interested in seeing him in this race.
2 – Le Dom Bro (30-1 ML): He broke his maiden at Saratoga in a restricted maiden special weight in August. He made his next start in the Grade 2 Remsen several months later and showed nothing. Eniel Cordero brought him back to Florida and he ran him in the Swale Stakes here at seven furlongs last month. He outran his odds, finishing second, 3 ½ lengths behind Frank’s Empire. While he showed improvement, his lone two turn race at this Grade 2 level was a disaster. While I think he’ll run better than he did in December, I think he’s over matched against this field.
3 – Victory Avenue (4-1 ML, 55-1 Circa): The trainer of Mage, Gustavo Delgado, sends out this maiden in his second career start. He put up a huge Beyer Speed Figure when finishing second to Speak Easy in a maiden special weight race on the Pegasus undercard at the end of January. His half sister, Epic Miss Justice, was the first foal from his unraced Scat Daddy dam. She has four career starts, breaking her maiden in a two turn turf race at long odds at the Spa this summer. This colt was sired by Arrogate, who won the Pegasus World Cup on this oval in 2017. It was interesting to see that most of the public wagering was on this horse in that debut race. He ran well enough to win, but had to settle for second as Speak Easy was the better horse that day. Delgado doesn’t have the large sample size that Pletcher does, but his runners are 3-13 when going from a sprint to a route in their second career start. All three of those winners came in maiden races though, suggesting that the sprint was more of a starting point for them. He has saddled four debut winners to start in a sprint and then go long in their second start, and none of them were winners. Mage is one of the runners on that list, as he finished 4th in this race last year. Obviously, there is some hype around this horse who cost his owners $375K last year, and I’m fascinated that the oddsmaker made him a slightly shorter price than Speak Easy on the morning line. Their common race has the makings of becoming a future key race as the 4th and 6th place finishers are the only runners to have raced since, and they finished in a photo for first and second in a maiden special weight race last week. He’s one of four runners that feels like he has a legitimate claim to win this race.
4 – Real Macho (8-1 ML, 200-1 Circa): He rallied from off the pace to clear the N1X condition here last month on the Holy Bull undercard. He went off at 26-1 that day, finishing in front of Merit. His two best efforts came at the one turn mile, what was that allowance race and his maiden breaking effort in November. He was flat against Change of Command and Cardinale in his lone try at two turns in January. Both of those colts tried a Derby Prep race and neither had any impact on their given races. I do think he could sit a nice, ground-saving trip behind the leaders, but whether or not he really wants to go two turns at this level is still a question that needs to be answered.
5 – Dornoch (2-1 ML, 12-1 Circa): It’s never easy being the younger sibling of a world class athlete, but Mage’s little brother has done just fine for himself in his first four career starts. He was excellent when breaking his maiden in his third career start, drawing off to win by 6 ½ lengths at Keeneland when going this same 1 1/16 mile distance. He followed that up with a gutsy win in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes in December, where he battled back to win by a nose after he was passed by Sierra Leone in the stretch that day. While the running line had him a nose behind that one, Sierra Leone had opened up close to a length lead on him before a dug in and battled back. It didn’t help that Dornoch hit the rail at the top of the stretch, but he was no worse for wear and ended up scoring in one of the better prep races this season. Sierra Leone, Drum Roll Please, and Domestic Product have all come back to validate the Remsen. Luis Saez will ride once again for Danny Gargan, who suggested that this runner might not be fully cranked for this race. Speak Easy, Le Dom Bro, and Victory Avenue all are going to try to be forward, so he might have to either tuck in or risk going four wide into the first turn. We’ve already seen one two year old star falter in his three year old debut on this oval this season. He certainly has a shot here, but I’m going to try to beat him.
6 – Merit (15-1 ML, 300-1 Circa): He was cross-entered in an allowance race yesterday, where he ran and finished second. He is almost certainly going to be scratched in this spot.
7 – Frankie’s Empire (20-1 ML): The most experienced runner in this field is set to make his 8th career start today. On a positive note, four of his first seven tries were wins. His three losses prior to winning in the Swale Stakes last month, all come against stakes foes. He faced Dornoch at Monmouth in the Sapling Stakes at the end of August. He was nine lengths behind him that day when finishing a distant third. His last two starts have been his two best, so he has that going for him. This is a huge step up in class though, and his two tries at two turns weren’t very good races. When you factor that in with a bad post for this distance, I think he’ll have too many things to overcome to win this race.
8 – Locked (5-2 ML, 15-1 Circa): The winner of the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity makes his first start since finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita in November. While his stablemate, Fierceness, was the superior horse that afternoon, horses with his closing style generally struggled to get home first on Breeders’ Cup Weekend this past year. He closed well to get into third, and Muth coming back a winner in his first start of the year certainly validates some of the form from that race. While Pletcher entering Speak Easy today feels like it could be a knock against this colt, I do think he’s going to get a favorable pace scenario to set up his late action. While it might not be enough today, I do think this is a horse that could be a serious player in the Triple Crown Series, and this might be the best price you’ll get on him for a while. On the flip side, this race is more of a Plan B for him. He was planning on making his seasonal debut in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa a few weeks ago. However, he spiked a fever leading up to that race and ultimately was never entered. His stablemate, Fierceness, who was better than he was on Breeders’ Cup Day, failed to fire his best shot when making his seasonal debut. I remain skeptical about his chances of winning this one today.
9 – Dancing Groom (30-1 ML, 400-1 Circa): It’s a little unusual to see only one runner that started in the Holy Bull Stakes come back in this Grade 2 contest, however, that’s the case today. This son of Vino Rosso broke from Post 4 when making his first start of 2024 in that Grade 3 event last month. He was trying to rebound from a wide trip when he was a non-factor in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes two starts back. He was a 40-1 longshot in the Holy Bull and he finished a non-threatening 5th. While he was up against Fierceness in that race, the two year old champ didn’t run his race. This is a much deeper field, and he starts from post 8 as opposed to post 4. I don’t see it happening for him here.
The Verdict: 1-5-8
I think there is a fairly significant divide between the four shortest prices and the four longest prices in this race. It’s hard for me to build a case for one of the longshots because of the talent of the horses that they’re facing. The story of this race boils down to whether or not the two runners coming out of the maiden race on 1/27 are good enough to compete with two of the more successful two year olds from last year, making their first start at three.
I think Speak Easy has the advantage of breaking from the rail and he has the best jockey on the grounds piloting him. He comes from a barn that has won this race four times and knows how to win races with horses like this. I think the fact that he was entered in an allowance race yesterday offered them protection, had he drawn poorly for this race. With him drawing the rail, I think his connections were encouraged to take that shot. I also wonder if there is a little doubt about Locked from Pletcher in this spot, making his first start of the year a little later than anticipated.
Dornoch was the winner of the Remsen Stakes, where he used his inside position to take the lead early. He set an aggressive pace for the nine furlong trip and was able to battle back to win after bumping the rail at the top of the stretch and then being passed by Sierra Leone. He was a little green at times last year, so it’ll be interesting to see if some of those quirks have been resolved. Having the Derby Points banked from the Remsen means that he certainly doesn’t need to win this race, so he might not be fully cranked. Luis Saez rides him as opposed to Victory Avenue, who he also rode in his last start.
Locked was scheduled to make his first start of the year in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa, which has been a move that Pletcher has liked to do over the last several years. However, about a week before the race, he spiked a fever and missed a little time. While I don’t think he missed much in terms of preparation, I’m always a little skeptical of any horse that is running in a “Plan B” race. I don’t know if his style is ideal for this track, but the pace in this race should be decent. I like him better going a little longer, and I’m looking forward to his next start more than this one.
The maiden, Victory Avenue is definitely a player based upon his effort when finishing behind Speak Easy last time out. I do worry that he’s drawn in between early speed in this race. Johnny V. is either going to try to get him comfortable while in between rivals or try to ride him hard to outsprint Speak Easy and Dornoch to the front. The potential is there, but I think he’s going to need a lot of factors to go his way to win this one.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
