Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Austonian (Race 4)
Race #1: Selections: 1-3-4-6
1-Eighties Music is by multiple Grade 1 winner Tiz the Law, who gets a strong 18% with his 3-year-old & up debuting prodigy. The filly debuts with a solid worktab for Baltas and could come out firing at first asking. Her stablemate, 3-Debby’s Gal is a logical fit, having finished third in all three lifetime starts and drops again off the mini-freshening. The daughter of Army Mule adds Lasix this afternoon. 4-Improbable U switches to the main track on the turnback after finishing second in four of five career turf route tries. The 3-year-old filly makes her third start off the bench today and has plenty of main track pedigree (Improbable/Multiple G1 winner on dirt). 6-Kintrigue (by McKinzie) debuts for the D’Amato barn off a steady but uninspiring series of drills. This barn is, however, a solid 5 for 30 (17%) with a $2.91 ROI with dirt sprint firsters at Santa Anita the past five years.
Race #2: Selections: 4-2-3
Recent claim 4-A.P. Again steps up in class off a game gate-to-wire score on Jan. 25 over a pair of today’s returning rivals. The sophomore colt sports the best last-out dirt Beyer (68), and this barn is 10 for 48 (21%) the past five years with dirt sprint new acquisitions at Santa Anita. 2-Flashy Fritz finished third behind the top choice in last and goes second-time Lasix today off a career-best figure. 3-Desert Kat was beaten by double digits in the last, but drops in class today for the red-hot Papaprodromou barn and can improve, making his second try against winners.
Race #3: Selections: 4-3-2
Baffert’s 4-Blacksmith will look to break through today with a maiden victory and potentially get back on track for a Triple Crown run. The son of Liam’s Map has finished in the money three of four starts, including a runner-up effort in the G2 Los Al Futurity two-back behind stablemate Litmus Test. His stablemate, 3-Authentic Patriot, flashed speed and tired to sixth when dismissed at 8-1 on debut Nov. 22 behind the top choice, but can improve significantly on the stretch-out. He switches to barn’s go-to pilot Juan Hernandez and fired a “best of 70” bullet five furlongs in :59.1 in preparation for this on Feb. 7. Lasix on. 2-Easy Company (by Into Mischief) was fifth behind Blacksmith when last seen back on Jan. 9, but should move forward making his second try going long for Mandella.
Race #4: Selections: 1-6-5
There is a $34,288 Pick 6 Carryover that begins here in race four. 1-Austonian was overmatched in the last for Hess, but drops from $20k claimers down to today’s $8,000 level and is likely to bounce back, second off the mini-freshening. The 6-year-old gelding earned a very competitive (83) Beyer two-back at today’s one-mile trip. 6-Tougherthantherest looks quickest out of the gate this afternoon, making his second try off the claim for conditioner Steve Knapp, who sports a solid 4 for 18 (22%) record with this claiming angle in dirt routes at Santa Anita. He’s never been offered for this low of a tag, and may prove tough to reel in with an alert break. Veteran pilot Victor Espinoza has made the most of his limited starts. 5-Dark Marcus has not been out since April 6, when finishing second and claimed for $6,250. The 7-year-old gelding is 2-for-32 lifetime, but usually fires fresh.
Race #5: Selections: 3-1-4
3-Ahrens goes turf to dirt on the class drop in start number two after flashing good speed through taxing early splits on debut Jan. 18. The 3-year-old colt is bred to handle the main track and could find himself on a clear lead today on the turnback. The barn has solid second-time starter stats from a small sample. Turf to dirt 1-Trail Blaze makes career try number nine this afternoon, but has finished second and third on multiple occasions over the main track for conditioner George Lopez, while posting some of the fastest Beyers in this field. 4-Another Juanitu shortens back up to a sprint this afternoon, exiting back-to-back well-beaten third-place finishes versus similar. The gelding goes second-time Lasix today and ran well going 5 ½ furlongs at Los Al three-back.
Race #6: Selections: 1-3-2
First off the claim 1-The Old Nine (Ire) has never tried dirt in 16 career tries but is by top sire No Nay Never and could potentially make the surface transition based on his speedy main track morning works. He fired a “best of 77” bullet five furlongs in :46 flat on Jan. 10. The 5-year-old returns as a first-time gelding today, adds blinkers, and exits a good second on Jan. 24. 3-Handsome Ticket steps up in class off the Jan. 10 claim and gate-to-wire win and adds blinkers today for the new barn. This 7-year-old gelding has had frequent layoff lines but seems to be back on track now and could easily take two straight with similar run-and-gun tactics. 2-Mici’s Express shortens back up today for Team O’Neill, second off the claim, and usually finds his way to the underneath vertical exotics.
Race #7: Selections: 2-6-7
2-Sharon’s Beach (by Omaha Beach) ran extremely well off the five-month layoff in his first local appearance for conditioner Jonathan Thomas, firing a field’s best (89) main track Beyer with a second to repeat winner Liam Smith. He goes second-time Lasix today and should prove tough to overhaul at short odds if he runs back to anything close to that Jan. 23 dirt figure. 6-Dreaming On debuts for conditioner Tim Yakteen off some solid a.m. drills. The sophomore colt is by multiple G1 winner Liam’s Map, and this jockey-trainer combo is 3-for-15 (20%) with a lofty $3.55 ROI with debut sprint firsters the past two years. 7-Sterling Sea adds Lasix and drops into a first-time tag today for the D’Amato barn. The gelded son of Union Rags makes his second try on dirt off the mini-freshening and can move forward today with the class relief and move outside.
Race #8: Selections: 7-1-8
A half dozen fillies exit the same Jan. 23 Santa Anita six-furlong race. A winner of two of her last four tries, 7-My Kat flashed speed and battled hard on the lead until surrendering to third in the deep stretch. She draws outside of the other speed this afternoon, switches to red-hot Kimura, and projects to trip out nicely. 1-Libel Proof finished a non-threatening sixth in the aforementioned Jan. 23 event but adds blinkers today with a much-improved bullet drill (best of 29 in :46.1) on Feb. 9 and figures to be sent along aggressively from the rail. 8-Pasalubong had some traffic issues and was somewhat hesitant to fully engage when pinned along the rail, but finished up OK considering the circumstances. The daughter of Maximum Security moves outside today and should fall into a better tracking trip.
Race #9: 7-4-1-2
A tricky $20k optional claiming 1X dirt sprint closes out the late pick five and six, where a few of these have taken turns beating each other. 7-Coach Cronin was a beaten even-money favorite when finishing behind Mr. Machupicchu in his last start, when never getting off the rail, and getting on track way too late. He galloped out past the field and now switches back to Kimura today, who is 2-for-2 when riding this gelding. A recent three-furlong blowout bullet drill in :35.1 on Feb. 15 adds to the appeal. 4-Special Club has proved to be equally effective on dirt and turf for trainer Craig Lewis and exits a 16-1 upset turf score on Jan. 15. Two-back, he finished third to 1-One Smokin Dude, who was badly outrun when switching to turf on the stretch-out, but gets back to sprinting on dirt, where he won two straight prior to that last mishap. 2-Mr. Machupicchu is 1-for-24 but has finished second or third a dozen times and has the speed to clear this field this afternoon for trainer Jeff Bonde. The 4-year-old gelding sports the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (84).
