Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 4-Tavolara (Race 9)
Race #1: Selections: 1-2-3
1-Corkscrew Andy has yet to hit the board in three grass-route starts for Mandella, but drops in for a first-time tag today, second off the bench, and can improve for the red-hot Kimura. This barn is 3-for-14 (21%) on turf, with a $3.36 ROI, with MDSW to MDCLM dropdowns over the past four years. 2-Mighty Toro is a logical choice off back-to-back runner-up finishes at this level for the lucrative Rosario Sadler jockey/trainer combo and back-to-back (71) turf Beyers. 3-Marion Magic (by Bucchero) goes dirt-to-turf and steps up in class off a well-beaten fifth on debut Aug. 29 at Del Mar. The 3-year-old gelding has been working well in the a.m. over the local synthetic footing.
Race #2: Selections: 4-5-2
4-Johnny B goes second off the claim and drops back to the Aug. 23 purchase price level, which this juvenile gelding just missed by a nose. By Editorial (17% dirt routes), he could relish the stretch-out. Two sprints to a route, 5-Inca has solid early zip but makes career start number seven this afternoon and has failed to carry his speed all the way thus far. Apprentice jockey Alfredo Bautista was still looking for his first win of the meet as of this writing, however. 2-Big Time Coach goes two sprints to a route and switches to Rosario for trainer Ryan Hanson. His pedigree doesn’t exactly scream routing, however.
Race #3: Selections: 3-2-6
3-Burning Rubber has flashed speed and tired in back-to-back starts for conditioner Sean McCarthy, but drops a notch today, which should prove key, and this gelding co-tops the field’s best last-out turf Beyer. 2-Sammy Davis has been very disappointing the last several starts for Sadler and moves back to turf with some class relief today, looking for a wake-up call. A “best of 70: bullet four furlongs in :46.2 on Oct. 17 perhaps hints that better effort is forthcoming. 6-Gazon (GB) makes his second try off the Val Brinkerhoff claim but will need to do better than he has in his last pair to win here, and this barn is 0-for-12 with second-off claim purchases.
Race #4: Selections: 8-6-3
8-Hankering slashes his claiming tag in half this afternoon, with good early speed to match this afternoon’s outside draw for the Mendoza barn. A debut maiden-breaking winner over this course, this gelding looks well-spotted today to get his second career victory. 6-Precision (GB) has only one other main-track try, where he was an excusable, well-beaten fifth when he stumbled at the start as the favorite, and now takes a sizable class drop today for trainer Hector Palma, who has had an excellent autumn meet (4-for-11, 36%). 3-Twilight Time returns off a year-long layoff for trainer Craig Lewis off a steady but uninspiring worktab.
Race #5: Selections: 2-1-6
2-Hey Lil Lady back-to-back seconds with competitive turf figures make this filly one of the main contenders here again; third start off the bench, but she needs pace to run into. 1-Winika has won two straight for the red-hot Mullins barn and now shortens back up to a sprint, looking for the threepeat. 6-Camila Catalina drops in class, making her third try of the current form cycle for conditioner Bob Hess. This filly will need to show more on the turnback.
Race #6: Selections: 2-7-3
Recent maiden winner 2-Hoosick Falls broke through in his ninth career try with a solid (78) dirt Beyer on Sept. 27 going this one-mile trip for Mullins and looks well-positioned for a potential repeat with his first crack against winners. 7-Gairloch has never tried dirt for Powell but is by McKinzie (a multiple Grade 1 winner routing), and this gelding takes a substantial class plunge today. His recent turf form has been poor, but he’s trained well over the main track here and perhaps improves today. Turf to dirt 3-Redial goes second off the Ian Kruljac claim and returns to Santa Anita where he’s run some of his better races.
Race #7: Selections: 6-4-3
6-Queen of Bantry is the filly to beat, off a second- and third-place finish on dirt, with two of the field’s best main-track Beyer figures (58, 50). The daughter of Goldencents should be ready for a career-best effort this afternoon. 4-Adia was no match for repeat winner Sacred Sound on Sept. 13 over at Los Al when making her initial dirt try and dropping to this level, and is a logical contender here, making her first try over the Santa Anita main track. 3-Imnotvanillasky finished a close-up fourth (beaten less than two lengths) off an extended break on Aug. 28 and can move forward to day for trainer Mark Glatt.
Race #8: Selections: 4-7-6
The hard-hitting 4-Miz Clubcali drops in for a career-low claiming tag today and rarely misfires. The 5-year-old mare came up a head short in her most recent try on Sept. 25, finishing ahead of a trio of today’s returning rivals, and should be tough to overhaul with a similar effort. 7-Harney Lane didn’t have the best trip last time off the Andy Mathis claim and can improve today by returning to a course where he’s run well, as his 7-4-1-0 career mark suggests. 6-Chasing Kat hasn’t been all that good in the last pair but puts blinkers back on today for trainer Gary Stute and is dangerous in here if she can run back to those two Del Mar August starts.
Race #9: Selections: 4-6-5
4-Tavolara is one of two fillies from the Carla Gaines barn. This daughter of Good Magic hasn’t been out in a year but has trained well in the a.m. for today’s return to action for an excellent layoff barn. Gaines is 7-for-35 (20%) with grass sprint runners at Santa Anita with a lofty $3.89 ROI the past four years returning off >180 days. Jamie Spencer in the saddle adds to the appeal. 6-Issa Court returns off an eight-month freshening for conditioner Bob Hess and was a beaten favorite fifth when last seen back in February. The 8-year-old mare lures Rosario off the bench. A three-time winner over this turf course, 5-Danzingwith Maxine is back off a 13-month hiatus, with Glatt taking over training duties. The daughter of Danzing Candy has proven she can fire fresh.
