Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 7-Brazoria (Race 1)
Race #1: Selections: 7-8-3
7-Brazoria (GB) finished ahead of several of these on Sept. 6, running second again for trainer Richard Mandella, and now shortens up to a mile today, looking to break through in career try number four. The Frankel filly retains Rosario, and this may be her breakout performance. A beaten favorite last time, 8-Peachy Canyon (Ire) was a wide-trip fourth behind the top choice when breaking a tad slowly. Improvement likely. Reddam Racing’s 3-Shane’s the Brains has been freshened for Team O’Neill, who is having a stellar autumn meet, clicking at a 33%-win clip as of this writing and showing no signs of slowing down.
Race #2: Selections: 4-3-2
4-Gettinby has won four of his last five starts and is 7-for-17 lifetime. The 4-year-old colt was a gate-to-wire winner with a lofty (97) Beyer in his lone try over the Santa Anita strip three-back and should be tough to reel in here at short odds. 3-Special Club has had a stellar summer session over at Del Mar, winning two of three with one second and looks like the main danger to the top pick. Third behind the top choice last time out, 2-Jerry’s Spirit makes his second start off the 11-month layoff and is eligible to move forward for Tim Yakteen.
Race #3: Selections: 1-4-2
1-Nesso’s Lastharrah goes two sprints to a rout this afternoon and is likely to show more early zip from the rail position with Berrios. He hopped at the start as last year’s favorite in this event and was never involved. The 5-year-old drops out of the Eddie D. (G2) into this softer spot this afternoon. The Blaine Wright-trained 4-Twirling Point has been up against it with back-to-back tough outside posts and in deep against grade 2 types in last pair, but this looks like a good spot to get back on track. The multiple Grade 3-winning 2-Artislas drops out of the Del Mar Mile (G2), where he finished sixth (only beaten two lengths), and fits here.
Race #4: Selections: 3-7-1
3-Can’t Say That rallied to win despite breaking slowly as the 4-5 betting choice on Aug. 6 at Del Mar, and has since been freshened for the Papaprodromou barn. The 3-year-old filly could get a similar set-up this afternoon and broke her maiden over this course three-back. 7-Springline followed up her runaway maiden score with a dominant 4 ¼-length win facing winners Oct. 4 and looks for the threepeat this afternoon for trainer Ryan Hanson. Her ability to sit and pounce makes her the one to beat again. 1-Photogenic has speed and the rail but will likely have company up front. The daughter of Authentic drops in for a career-low claiming tag.
Race #5: Selections: 5-4-11
5-Missed Fortune drops back down into the maiden ranks after finishing seventh in the Grade 3 Del Mar Juvenile Turf on Sept. 5 over at Del Mar when overmatched at 34-1 but was a good second two-back versus similar when just missing by a neck. 4-Bottled in Bond galloped out wide past the entire field on debut, then was geared down along the rail in start number two for conditioner Carla Gaines. The Grazen gelding stretches out to two turns today, switches to Hernandez, and suspicions are there’s more under the tank than we’ve seen so far. 11-Repo goes two sprints to a route and returns to turf for trainer Michael McCarthy. The son of Nyquist will need to negotiate some type of trip drawn outside this afternoon, however.
Race #6: Selections: 4-5-2
The Hector Palma-trained 4-Blame Ashley (by Blame) coasted to a 4 ¼-length debut win Aug. 28 at Del Mar when well-backed by the betting public and has worked four times since that winning unveiling. 5-Imnosurething aired by 8 ¾ lengths with the addition of blinkers and a class drop in start number two and has also worked well since for Peter Eurton. The Maiden 2-I Know Nothing owns the best late-pace figure in the field for the red-hot O’Neill barn, removes the blinkers today, and will likely be motoring home late with Maldonado. Dismissing or tossing anything from this barn this meet has been a bankroll buster.
Race #7: Selections: 9-5-4
Recent maiden winner 9-Timayyyy is wheeled back on six days’ rest for George Papaprodromou, which this barn rarely does, but it’s a highly productive maneuver (5-for-15; 33%) when executed. 5-Back Nine Stakes makes his third start in Southern California, shortening back up to a mile off a speed-and-fade try Sept. 6, and has worked three times since then for a jockey-trainer combo with prior success. 4-Moon Ice hasn’t been out since October 2024 but has run well off extended layoffs in the past (albeit never this extended) and never for these new connections. Nonetheless, the 6-year-old gelding has been training smartly for his return to action and lures Rispoli off the bench.
Race #8: Selections: 3-8-9
3-Godbless Her goes turf to dirt and takes a substantial class plunge from Maiden Special Weight to bottom $12,500 maiden claimers today for the meet’s leading barn. The sophomore gray daughter of Frosted makes her second start off the 13-month layoff and is likely to improve significantly with the class relief and that race under her belt. The Simon Callaghan-trained 8-Blame the Track also goes turf to dirt and drops in for a first-time tag. Both of this filly’s main track tries against better were halfway decent sprinting on dirt, and she’s an immediate threat against this softer group with Rosario climbing aboard. The 5-year-old mare 9-Dancing Thru Fire has good early speed to coincide with her outside draw, and she sports the field’s best last-out main-track Beyer (59). The question remains whether she’s improved the last several months or the improvement was Los Al-track specific induced.
Race #9: Selections: 3-4-10
A tricky $32k claiming turf route closes out the Saturday program with several different directions one could go. 3-Zalamo goes first off the Dean Pederson Claim, who is 3-for-10 (30%) with new acquisitions. The 6-year-old gelding has the right running style in a field that looks top-heavy on speed-types and finally draws well with Rosario. 4-City Exile (GB) was flat in last but shortens back up to a mile, second off the Knapp claim, and can bounce back moving back to the Santa Anita turf. 10-Lahaina Flavor rallied to round out the superfecta when facing several of these at 31-1 on Aug. 14 and should get a live pace to run into again this afternoon. The 7-year-old gelding can snag another piece of the underneath exotics.
