Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-Ubi (Race 9)
Race #1: Selections: 7-9-1
7-Midnight Cowgirl runs best when she grabs the early lead and goes gate-to-wire, as she did two and three back over this turf course, and this filly looks fast enough to clear this field with winning pilot Edwin Maldonado back in the stirrups this afternoon for trainer Ryan Hanson. 9-Nikolina returns to the Santa Anita sod where she’s run some of her better efforts, evidenced by her 4-2-1-0 mark. The 4-year-old filly drops in class and has worked well since that last third-place finish back on Sept. 3 at Del Mar for D’Amato. The lightly raced 1-Watch Over Us angled out and drove clear in a sharp-looking grass score for conditioner Peter Miller on Oct. 12 and still has plenty of upside.
Race #2: Selections: 4-2-3
4-Wolf Hill is a 12-start maiden and the type you should bet against at short odds most of the time with seven runner-ups and two thirds on the resume. The connections add blinkers today, hoping the equipment change will do the trick and get this daughter of Upstart into the winner’s circle. Reluctant top pick. Her stablemate, 2-Saucier, makes start number nine today and has had a few close finishes, including exceeding par for this class level, sprinting over the Santa Anita main track. The City of Light 4-year-old looks to be the main threat here. 3-Rabid Response finished a much-improved fourth when moving back to dirt on Aug. 15, posting a career-best Beyer.
Race #3: Selections: 6-1-4-5
6-Luxor Magic was no match for runaway winner Lunar Velocity in last, but was well clear of the third-place finisher in that short field over at Del Mar and looks quick enough to clear this field from her outside post today with Kimura and potentially go gate-to-wire. Leading trainer Doug O’Neill has been firing on all cylinders this autumn meet. That’s if 1-Sea’s No Joke isn’t sent hard from the rail, which might be the case for Team Baffert. The daughter of Practical Joke came up empty on debut on Aug. 22 as the slight second choice but switches to Hernandez today on the stretch-out and is likely to move forward in start number two. The D’Amato-trained 4-Graduation Day goes turf to dirt in start number two off an OK fourth on debut and should move forward with the surface change, being by Curlin. That Sept. 5 turf route has produced a pair of next-out winners. The other Baffert is 5-Miss Athens (by Upstart), who stumbled at the start on debut Oct. 4 and never really picked up her feet thereafter. She was chilly on the board as well, going postward at 9-1.
Race #4: Selections: 3-4-2
3-Arrowthegreat has won three straight for Dan Blacker, including a 19-1 upset when returning off a year layoff in last. The mile specialist (9-5-3-1) can take another if able to repeat or exceed that last (96) Beyer figure. Runner-up in the BC Juvenile last year, 4-Mr. A. P. drops out of the Grade 1 Goodwood into this more fitting spot this afternoon for Cerin and should appreciate cutting back to a mile where he’s 1-for-1. This looks like a cozy spot for the American Pharaoh sophomore to get back on track. 2-Malarchuk has hit the board in nine of 11 starts and is also dropping in class today, exiting the G1 Pacific Classic and G2 Gold Cup.
Race #5: Selections: 2-3-6
The all-turf pick three and start to the late pick five begins with a tricky $50k maiden claiming grass route for 3-year-old fillies. Not sure 2-Risky Pleasure had much run when steadying along the rail at the head of the stretch and then not pressured to go on before fading to last when last seen back on Aug. 14. Nonetheless, the daughter of Clubhouse Ride is back here with the addition of blinkers, which may help for her second try for the tag, and she retains Hernandez in a wide-open affair. 3-Danzing Daisy has had many chances and makes career try number 12 this afternoon with a half dozen ITM finishes. 6-Clubhouse Deb drops in for a first-time tag off an improving Beyer pattern. D’Amato is 4-for-17 (24%) with MDSW to MDCLM turf route drop-downs at Santa Anita the past four years.
Race #6: Selections: 4-6-1
4-Quick Express is by Grade 1 winner Bodexpress (15% with juvenile debuting prodigy), and she debuts for trainer George Papaprodromou off a steady worktab. This barn is only 5-for-83 (6%) with debut runners, but this gal lures Hernandez at first, asking, and is likely to come out running. 6-Rodeo Riviera (by G1 winner Volatile) is a firster from the Ryan Hanson barn who is fully capable of winning at first-asking. 1-Savvy Tiger was beaten by double digits in both career tries for D’Amato but holds the experience edge.
Race #7: Selections: 2-3-8
2-Amorita is winless over the Santa Anita downhill course (0-for-5) but has been close for Mandella and drops out of the Grade 2 Eddie D into this softer stake today, while just missing second last time out and sporting the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (91). Glen Hill Farm’s 3-Pop Art ships in for conditioner Tom Proctor from Saratoga for his stakes debut and projects to be forwardly placed in here with Hall of Famer Mike Smith. She comes in off a career-best grass Beyer, good synthetic drills at Belmont, and makes her third start of the current form cycle. 8-Tahini has had a taxing 2026 campaign but has thrived on his robust schedule, rarely misfiring and picking up many checks along the way. The 5-year-old mare is only 1-for-14 over the Santa Anita sod, however, and usually likes to settle underneath.
Race #8: Selections: 4-3-7-8
4-Howie’s Law cuts back to six panels after scampering away to a seven-furlong 6 ¼-length romp on Aug. 30 at Del Mar for Team O’Neill and won with something in reserve. A repeat is well within reach. 3-San Saba clearly needed his last when he tired to finish a well-beaten fifth after returning from an eight-month layoff for Baffert. The $725k son of Justify figures to be much tighter this afternoon with improved gate speed and followed up that last subpar return try with a bullet “best of 70” four furlongs in :46.2 on Oct. 17. 7-March of Time might fall into an ideal stalking trip here as the other Baffert, dropping out of back-to-back Grade 2 affairs into this $50k claimer. 8-Practical Jack is in rare form right now, having won two straight by a combined 7 ¼ lengths in sub-1:10 for six furlongs.
Race #9: Selections: 3-4-1
3-Ubi (Ire) finished a bang-up wide trip second at Kentucky Downs on debut Sept. 6 and now switches to the D’Amato barn for start number two as the daughter of No Nay Never heads west. She figures to be a handful with any normal second-out progression. 4-Star Above Me (Ire) came up a neck short in a field of 11 on her debut at Curragh in July and now makes her Stateside debut for trainer Simon Callaghan. By Group 1 winner Starman, the juvenile filly has been training steadily over the Santa Anita synthetic for her American unveiling. 1-Weho (by Yaupon) flashed speed and tired to finish fifth on debut for Sadler on Oct. 4, and now moves to grass in career try number two. This barn is 5-for-20 (25%) with a $2.78 ROI with second-time dirt-to-turf starters at Santa Anita in the past five years.
