Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-Seamless Factor (Race 10)
Race #1: Selections: 6-2-5
6-Darn Good Dancer finished a good second on debut six months ago back in the spring over the main track sprinting and has been absent since for the D’Amato barn. The 3-year-old filly stretches out today, switches to turf, and has trained well the last two months in preparation for this. The sophomore gal is by multiple Graded-stakes-winning grass sire Mo Forza and lures Hernandez off the bench. 2-Cyclone Clare jumped 26 Beyer points in start number two, stretching out to a mile for Sadler to defeat a pair of today’s returning rivals and close well for the runner-up slot at 11-1. A logical win threat with another forward progressive move. 5-Sally’s Wish makes career try number 11 this afternoon but goes two sprints to a route, a third try in the current form cycle, and is expected to be forwardly placed.
Race #2: Selections: 5-3-4
5-Strike a Match stretches out off the maiden-claiming win by conditioner Steve Knapp, and this gelding by Maclean’s Music (16% dirt routes) may find a route of ground to his liking. The 3-year-old gelding looks like the clear frontrunner. 3-Kid Charlemagne is one of two from trainer Sean Williams. The gelding was beaten double digits in the last pair but has been freshened and training fairly well at San Luis Rey. The 1-for-17 4-Moonlit Sonata hasn’t tried dirt since February 2024, but lands in a weak field here for Rosario and Yakteen and probably fits.
Race #3: Selections: 5-2-3
The Luis Mendez-trained 5-Chaseher gets off the rail and drops in for a first-time tag. This barn is 10-for-30 (30%) in the past five years with dirt sprint Maiden Special Weight to Maiden Claimer dropdowns, and the three-furlong blowout on Oct. 25 over the local synthetic was sharp. 2-Princess Jet drops another notch and removes the blinkers today after showing improved speed in start number two and figures to take these as far as she can again for trainer Peter Miller. 3-Awesome Amy was no match for the race winner, but finished a good second at this level in last and shortens back up to a sprint this afternoon.
Race #4: Selections: 1-6-3
1-Proletariat has won three straight for Mullins, including taking the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby in last at today’s 1 1/8-mile trip and gets another cozy inside draw with plenty of early speed. Another gate-to-wire score at short odds is likely forthcoming. 6-Path to Power (GB) has found his groove since arriving Stateside for D’Amato and steps up into this graded stakes event in excellent form while making his third start of the current form cycle. The improving gelding might offer the biggest challenge to the top pick. 3-Tribalism (Ire) finished a flat seventh behind the top choice in the aforementioned Del Mar Derby but could sit a better trip today, with a better break and a more aggressive early placement.
Race #5: Selections: 1-5-7-9
1-Doo Wop Don steps up in class off a sharp 2 3/4-length win on Oct. 2 for trainer Jeff Mullins and is a 14-time winner. The veteran 8-year-old gelding looks primed for the repeat. 5-Brother o’ Brien has finished first or second in the last half dozen starts at Emerald Downs for trainer Tim McCanna and has won over this racetrack. A multiple winner over the track and distance, 7-Del Mar Jerry has speed and drops in class with the addition of blinkers for conditioner Steve Miyadi. The gelding is a gate-to-wire threat today. 9-Mubtadaa goes turf to dirt on the class drop and has run equally well over the main track from limited tries. The veteran 8-year-old gelding was outrun in last, but should be much tighter today, second off the bench, and is an immediate threat with the class relief.
Race #6: Selections: 6-4-5
6-Eltonsingsanother has won two of his last three starts, including a second-place finish for trainer Edwin Alvarez, and is expected to press the lead again this afternoon. 4-Shop Till You Drop had a troubled trip wide fifth as the beaten favorite last time and can rebound here on the class drop for Baltas. This mare’s sprint efforts two and three back were sharp with competitive Beyers (70,71). 5-Ryan’s Girl is back on dirt, her preferred footing, and has won five times over the Santa Anita strip. The 4-year-old filly is reunited with winning pilot Kazushi Kimura.
Race #7: Selections: 8-3-6
The Michael McCarthy-trained 8-Dragon Reign is by multiple Grade 1 winner Constitution, who gets an ordinary 13% with his debuting juvenile prodigy. This jockey-trainer combo is 4-for-20 (20%) with firsters the past five years, and he draws well off a steady worktab. 3-Vino Vino Vino exits back-to-back seconds for Team O’Neill. Her stablemate 6-I Know Nothing has hit the board in three of five starts for the leading barn and drops back down to face straight maidens after facing winners in last. She was second to runaway repeat winner Blame Ashley.
Race #8: Selections: 2-4-10
The lightly raced 2-Jimmy Wakefield has never tried the downhill course and hasn’t been out since May, but put up a competitive sprint Beyer (85) when a close-up third back in May for Knapp and has trained steadily in the interim. 4-Frank Bullitt has four seconds from four tries over the Santa Anita downhill course but prefers to finish underneath, as shown by his 16-2-7-1 career mark. There’s no doubt about the gelding’s consistency, though, and he beat the top pick. The newly gelded 10-Third Beer shortens up in distance off a five-month layoff for conditioner Tim Yakteen and takes a sizable class drop.
Race #9: Selections: 8-7-3
8-Fionello was checked hard before the opening quarter mile in his most recent start on Oct. 4 and never recovered for trainer Steve Knapp. The 3-year-old gelding deserves another chance here, with his late-closing running style in a race projected to have lively early splits. A “best of 111” bullet four furlongs in :46 flat on Oct. 25, since that most recent mishap, catches the eye. 7-King’s Ride moves back to dirt, his preferred footing, and has run well in all three tries over the Santa Anita main track. Another who should benefit from the pace dynamics. 3-Maker and Sons carved out some spirited early splits before tiring to finish second at 19-1 on Oct. 4, but figure to have some company on the front end.
Race #10: Selections: 3-7-4
3-Seamless Factor has finished second as the beaten favorite in both turf sprint tries to start her career for trainer Carla Gaines and will now add blinkers today for the all-important third lifetime try. All systems should be go for the daughter of Mendelssohn. A beaten chalk in all three career tries, 7-Rosa’s Miracle shortens back up to a sprint today for Sadler, and the turnback should help. Trainer Peter Miller doesn’t have a great percentage with debut runners on grass: 3-for-56 (5%). But 4-Tiz the Truth is by Stanford (18% juvenile debuting prodigy and turf sprinters) and lures Rispoli at first-asking. This filly may have some run.
Santa Anita: Dean Keppler
Breeders’ Cup weekend at Keeneland: results, replays and every ITM post on the Breeders’ Cup hub
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