Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 6-Well Funded (Race 1)
Race #1: 6-Well Funded finished in front of both Den of Iniquity and No No No Never when flashing good early speed on the stretch-out and switched to turf for Baffert and now makes the all-important third career try today. The daughter of Good Magic has worked three times since that sharp try and switches to Hernandez. 1-Den of Iniquity (GB) was bumped late and flattened out to finish fifth as the tepid beaten favorite when facing several of these same fillies on March 3. It was this 4-year-old’s first start back off a five-month freshening, so she’s likely to move forward this afternoon for Northern California-based conditioner Jack Steiner. 2-No No No Never (Ire) was shuffled badly along the rail before regaining her composure and rallying along late to grab the show spot while exiting the after-mentioned March 3 event.
Selections: 6-1-2
Race #2: The class-dropping 2-Soul of Midnight has enough speed to establish the front today for trainer Librado Barocio and is a solid gate-to-wire threat. The 4-year-old gelding earned the field’s best last-out main track Beyer with a recent third-place finish on March 10. 8-Ferociously was trounced when stretched out off the Sadler purchase on March 10 but now cuts back to his preferred six-furlong sprint distance and is eligible to bounce back off that subpar effort. This barn is a strong 14 for 36 (39%) with a $3.26 ROI with second off the claim dirt sprint runners the past 5 years. 1-Trusty Rusty hasn’t shown much of late but takes a sizable class drop today from $30k N3L to $16,000 and could wake up against this softer company.
Selections: 2-8-1
Race #3: Off since January 6, 8-Man Child moves to turf and adds blinkers off the Kristen Mulhall claim and has enough grass pedigree on the dam side to suggest he’ll successfully handle the surface switch. This barn is a solid 5 for 19 (26%) the past two years with new acquisitions, and Hernadez jumps aboard the gelding this afternoon, indicating readiness. 9-Handsome Ticket flashed good speed and was a strong runner-up going this 6 ½-furlong trip against this level on Feb. 25. 1-Dr. Soulfire drops back in for the $50k tag this afternoon after a series of subpar efforts for conditioner Michael McCarthy. The gelding is reunited with the winning pilot today and could land a piece of this at a big number from the rail.
Selections: 6-5-2
Race #4: 3-Feel the Magic improved his Beyer number by nearly 40 points in his Southern California unveiling on March 9 when finishing a good second and now makes the all-important third career start this afternoon. The switch to leading rider Juan Hernandez is a positive sign. 6-Vegas Burner makes career start number 13 today but has registered five runner-up finishes amongst those starts against straight Maiden Special Weight types and is now offered for a first-time $62,500 claiming tag today. 8-Chasing Rain (by Medaglia d’Oro) hasn’t shown much in both turf route tries for trainer Ryan Hanson but moves to the main track on the turnback this afternoon and could improve on the surface switch.
Selections: 3-6-8
Race #5: 2–Silver Surfer (GB) shortens back up and takes a huge class drop from $80k to $30,000 claimers for trainer Phil D’Amato while making the third start of the form cycle today. This 5-year-old gelding should simply be too tough for this inferior group. 4-Seismic Spirit (Ire) hasn’t been out in nearly 9 months for trainer Peter Miller but returns for a drastically reduced $25k tag and has been ultra-consistent overall, hitting the board in 7 of 9 career tries. 8-Ze’bul was a voided claim winner against slightly softer when last seen back on Jan. 5 sprinting on grass and lures Hernandez off the layoff. However, it’s difficult to look past the 1 for 31 (3%) stat for trainer Ryan Hanson with 61–180-day grass returnees.
Selections: 2-4-8
Race #6: 5-Scorpion Shot is by Neolithic, who gets a respectable 16% with his 3-year-old and up debut runners. The sophomore colt debuts with Lasix for trainer Jeff Mullins off of a decent work tab and meets a soft group this afternoon. 4-Eligio was runner-up to repeat winner Eight Clap in his most recent effort on March 1, earning the field’s best last-out main track Beyer. 8-Gostoso makes the all-important third career start this afternoon with an improving Beyer pattern after hitting the board in both local tries.
Selections: 5-4-8
Race #7: The five-time winning 4-Moody Jim (Ire) lost all chance when stumbling and losing the rider when returning off of an eight-month hiatus in his most recent effort at Golden Gate on Feb. 10. His grass route tries over the Santa Anita strip were solid two and three-back, and he’s certainly eligible to bounce back today. First-time gelding 3-Man Friday returns off of an extended layoff for trainer Vladimir Cerin with a spirited work tab and is likely to come out running off the bench. The 6-year-old is reunited with the winning rider. 1-Percolate (Ire) hasn’t shown much in the last pair but returns as a first-time gelding on the class drop for conditioner Michael McCarthy and is a multiple winner over the track and distance.
Selections: 4-3-1
Race #8: 2-Spiritual Advisor moves back to the main track after finishing a non-threatening sixth on Feb. 25. The Jeff Bonde-trained gelding came up just a head short at this level two-back finishing behind repeat winner Enjoy It Strait. He’ll be tough if he can run back to that (85) Beyer. The lightly raced 4-Don’t Fight the Fed stretches back out to his preferred mile trip today while making the second start off the bench. The son of Nyquist will likely move forward off that last effort. The speedy 6-Nauvoo returned to reality in his most recent start on March 8 when getting cooked through some taxing early fractions and fading to fifth late. His winning efforts two and three back were phenomenal. He won by 10 ½ lengths on Feb. 18 with a (98) Beyer and 11 ½ lengths on Feb. 2 with a spirited (94) figure. It’s hard to gauge what Nauvoo will show up today, making his second start off the claim.
Selections: 2-4-6
Race #9: The French-bred 5-Ketonia has yet to finish better than fifth in three stateside starts for D’Amato but is also dropping in class today and shows three solid main track drills since her last sixth-place finish on Feb. 25. 1-Respect the Crown hasn’t shown much in the last three grass tries (both sprinting and routing) but drops in for a first-time tag today for Mullins and can improve against this softer company. The filly worked well over the main track on March 25. 7-Matina goes turf to dirt on the class drop for trainer Mark Glatt in career start number two and is likely to show more gate speed with the addition of blinkers.
Selections: 5-1-7
