Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 7-Hot Lava Cake (Race 4)
Race #1: 4-Paradise Lake will likely improve in start number two for trainer John Sadler after encountering some traffic issues in her Feb. 25 debut when rallying late for the show spot. This barn has solid stats with second-time turf sprint starters. Another who is eligible to improve in start number two is 6-Notime for Squalls. She finished behind the top choice but stumbled badly at the start for conditioner Mark Glatt before closing belatedly to round out the superfecta. The Leonard Powell-trained Irish import 1-Hannah Buckle (Ire) makes her stateside debut off a seven-month freshening with the addition of Lasix. The 3-year-old filly attracts top turf pilot Umberto Rispoli for today’s U.S. unveiling and makes the all-important third career start.
Selections: 4-6-1
Race #2: 6-De Joria returns off an impressive 3 ¾-length victory on March 4 while going this one-mile trip and earning the field’s best last-out main track Beyer. The 5-year-old mare will be tough this afternoon if able to replicate that strong effort for trainer Jorge Periban. The ultra-consistent 2-Flatterwithjewels hasn’t been off the board in eight consecutive races and is a logical threat again at today’s $12,500 claiming level for D’Amato. 3-Vulin goes two sprints to a route today and won back-to-back mile tries at Del Mar at the tail end of 2023.
Selections: 6-2-3
Race #3: 2-Legitify (Ire) is by Triple Crown winner Justify and has trained extremely well for his 3-year-old debut for conditioner Gary Mandella. This barn has had a fabulous meet, and the March 28 “best of 25” four-furlong bullet drill catches the eye. 7-Bartholdy shortens back up, making his third start off the bench today after fading on the lead going two turns on March 16. The meet’s leading rider, Juan Hernandez, climbs aboard this afternoon. 3-Mr. Fabricator returns to the turf while making his third start of the form cycle for conditioner Michael McCarthy. The colt’s lone grass effort two-back resulted in a decent third-place finish going this 6 ½-furlong trip.
Selections: 2-7-3
Race #4: Trainer Bob Baffert is 4 for 7 (57%) and 7 for 7 ITM with second-time starter Maiden Special Weight to Maiden Claimer class droppers. That makes turf to dirt 7-Hot Lava Cake the top pick drawn outside, exiting a seventh-place finish against much stiffer competition on the Feb. 18 debut. 1-Love My Candy makes career start number 14 today but battled determinedly on the lead when dropped in for a first-time tag in her most recent try on Feb. 18 and deserves another chance at this reduced level. 6-Devil D’ Oro has trained steadily for today’s unveiling and this jockey-trainer combo has done well together from limited starts.
Selections: 7-1-6
Race #5: 1-Musical Rhapsody (Ire) is still looking for her first stateside win for D’Amato but drops out of the grade 3 Santa Ana into this softer spot this afternoon and should appreciate the class relief. The 5-year-old mare has consistently collected the top turf figures in this field. Her stablemate 4-Freedom Lass finished a good second going this 1 ¼-mile trip at this level in her most recent start on March 1. The lightly raced 4-year-old Uncle Mo filly 3-Mirari steps up off an impressive gate-to-wire Maiden victory back on Jan. 28 and may find herself alone on the lead in here, stretching out another quarter mile.
Selections: 1-4-3
Race #6: The speedy 3-Eltonsingsanother set a pressured pace before surrendering late in her most recent start on Feb. 23 when facing several of these same fillies. She should be able to establish the front once again today, perhaps under slower splits. 1-Diamonds Danzing was a beaten favorite wide fifth in the after-mentioned Feb. 23 event but adds blinkers this afternoon for a barn that’s had a solid meet. The 4-year-old filly shows a much-improved “best of 86” four-furlong bullet drill on March 23, presumably with the new equipment in place. 5-Uncontrollable rallied for third when dropped to this level in her most recent start and makes the third start of the form cycle today for Hernadez and McCarthy.
Selections: 3-1-5
Race #7: Trainer Phil D’Amato has four mares represented in today’s grade 3 one-mile Wilshire Stakes. From that group, we’ll try the multiple graded stakes-placed 1-School Dance, who stretches back out today, moves inside, and makes her second start off the six-month freshening. She can improve today off her last sixth-place effort. 4-Stay and Scam has won three of her last four turf sprints for conditioner Doug O’Neill but has never attempted going this far. Nonetheless, she’s posted back-to-back (91) turf Beyers, is in razor-sharp form, and is expected to be on the lead in here this afternoon. 8-Leisurewear (Ire) shortens up to a mile today, making her third start of the form cycle, and she should be set for her best 2024 effort with winning pilot Hernandez back for the return mount.
Selections: 1-4-8
Race #8: 3-Fayette Fox was last seen a year ago when runner-up in Arizona Oaks Stakes at Turf Paradise and now returns sprinting for trainer Vladimir Cerin off an encouraging work tab. The 4-year-old filly is likely to come out running with Hernandez signed on. 4-Delightful Hart, off since June 2023, drops in class, exiting a third-place finish against better when last seen nine and half months ago. The lightly raced 4-year-old filly has trained steadily for today’s return effort and broke her Maiden going this 6 ½-furlong journey in her debut. 5-Bangs hasn’t been out in over three months, but this daughter of Into Mischief has some decent early zip and has trained well for today’s return effort.
Selections: 3-4-5
Race #9: The class of this field is grade 1 winner 3-Gold Phoenix (Ire), who returns off a four-month freshening for D’Amato and has proven on multiple occasions he can fire successfully off the bench. This 6-time winning talented gelding owns the only triple-digit grass Beyer in this field and simply looks too tough to pick against in the Thursday nightcap. 1-Johanes hasn’t been out in 11 months but has proven he can fire off the bench for trainer Tim Yakteen and is 3 for 3 over the local turf course. The Nyquist colt figures to get a favorable ground-saving trip from the rail with regular winning rider Rispoli back in the saddle. 6-Air Force Red stretches back out today, making his second start off the bench, and will likely try and bottom out this field with Maldonado. The grade 2 winner is more than capable of posting a mild upset if allowed to carve out moderate fractions. He’s a five-time winner over this turf course.
Selections: 3-1-6
