Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 4-Red Cross Knight (Race 6)
Race #1: The 3-year-old & up debut prodigy for Triple Crown winner Justify decreases from 22% to 11% with older runners, but 1-Quick Brown Fox has trained well for conditioner Richard Mandella. This barn is a solid 6 for 23 (26%) with a lofty $3.24 ROI with debuting dirt runners at Santa Anita. The red-hot Dettori rides. 4-Ms Bo J has excellent early gate speed and has already run par or better for this level on multiple occasions while hitting the board in three of four career tries. This will be her first try at seven furlongs. 2-Jane Austin (by Tapit) cost a hefty $750K for trainer Mark Glatt, who is more than capable of winning with a first-time starter.
Selections: 1-4-2
Race #2: The ultra-consistent 3-Give Me the Lute can turn the tables on main rival Cane Creek Road after stumbling and breaking slowly on March 9 and rallying for the place spot as the beaten chalk. The gritty gelding has won four of his last six grass sprint starts and Hernandez has been aboard for all those victories. 2-Cane Creek Road returned off a four-month freshening to take his second straight for trainer Bob Hess and earned the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (92) in doing so. The veteran 9-year-old gelding 1-Barristan The Bold is a 10-time winner and loves this 5 ½-furlong turf distance (13-5-1-3).
Selections: 3-2-1
Race #3: 4-Bring Him Home is back off a three-month freshening for a good layoff barn and has run figures that can certainly win this for conditioner Eric Kruljac. 2-Carol’s Comic has had many chances, making lifetime start number 21 this afternoon, but ran a career-best Beyer (76) when returning to action off the four-month layoff and finishing second in most recent effort. The blinkers come off today, and the gelding will be tough to beat if able to somehow replicate that Beyer number. 6-Magic Account ran a bang-up race off the year layoff for trainer Hector Palma when showing good early zip and missing by a nose at this level on March 24. The main threat to the top two choices who have already proven to be habitual losers.
Selections: 4-2-6
Race #4: A small but competitive stake field slated for the downhill course where any of the top three choices could potentially win. The 9-time winning 5-Mucho Del Or has speed and an outside draw in this small field and exits a sharp gate-to-wire win in the grade 3 San Simeion Stakes on March 9 over this course for Team O’Neill. The field’s best last-out grass Beyer figure also adds to the appeal. Downhill course specialist 3-First Peace gets some class relief by dropping out of a fourth-place finish in the grade 1 Kilroe Mile for conditioner Mark Glatt, and makes the all-important third start of the form cycle this afternoon. The consistent 4-year-old colt fires every start. 4-Lane Way wasn’t far behind Mucho Del Or in the after-mentioned San Simeon, is another course specialist, and makes his second start off the bench today for Richard Mandella.
Selections: 5-3-4
Race #5: The Baffert pair of 2–Show Card and 5-In Theory are hard to separate as both exit solid Maiden victories. Show Card (by Into Mischief) has seen her Beyer figs improve with each subsequent start and posted a strong (84) figure with her recent victory on March 16. Frey takes over for Juan Hernandez, who chooses In Theory. The $800k Mendelssohn filly was an odds-on three-length easy debut winner on March 23 and appears to have a world of potential. The multiple stakes-placed 7-Tambo has six of seven ITM finishes for trainer Peter Eurton and comes off a hard-fought 6 ½-furlong score back on Feb. 23. The filly has trained well since that winning effort and appears to be the main threat to the Baffert duo.
Selections: 2-5-7
Race #6: 4-Red Cross Knight has never gone this far but appears to be (at least on paper) the controlling speed in this 1 1/8-mil turf route for Sadler with excellent gate rider Edwin Maldonado back aboard. The 4-year-old colt earned the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (85) with a recent runner-up finish on March 22. 5-Moogie Sun has shown his affinity for running second with 10 runner-up finishes in 28 career starts and exits a troubled trip fourth when encountering traffic issues late. 6-Dick Best should get the first run on the pacesetter Red Cross Knight and finished behind him in the after-mentioned March 22 event. The gelding’s Beyer figures have been heading in an upward direction in his last three starts which is a;ways a positive sign.
Selections: 4-5-6
Race #7: 5-Telos flashed speed and tired when trying turf off the layoff in his most recent effort on March 16 but should appreciate getting back to the main track today (his preferred surface) for trainer Adam Kitchingman. The gelding has worked three times since that last return prep and should get a favorable stalking journey. 8-Dual Threat returns to Southern California after a non-threatening third-place finish at Turf Paradise back on Feb. 21. He posted a strong (86) Beyer over this strip two-back and now makes his first start in the Hess barn. A contested early pace helps his chances. 2-Gavea was a 16 ½-length runaway Maiden winner a month ago but will likely face other pace pressure this afternoon, which could perhaps hinder his chances for a possible repeat victory.
Selections: 5-8-2
Race #8: 2-North East Star (Ire) was claimed by trainer Peter Miller off Feb. 15 one-mile win– a race that’s since produced a pair of next-out winners. Hernandez sticks for the new barn. 6-Inner Beauty (Ire) did not show her customary early speed in the last two starts, but the switch to Maldonado indicates more aggressive gate handling from the get-go this afternoon, thus making the 2 for 20 mare a potential gate-to-wire threat. 1-Dendera is back sprinting on the class drop while making her third start of the form cycle this afternoon for conditioner Leonard Powell.
Selections: 2-6-1
Race #9: Multiple graded-stakes winner 3-Desert Dawn drops out of the grade 1 Beholder Mile into this softer spot for D’Amato and looks to lay over this field on class and raw numbers. Her stablemate 5-Super Shine (Arg) makes her first stateside start off some sharp South American form but hasn’t been out in nearly a year. She’s hit the board in 9 of 10 career tries and shows a series of well-spaced solid a.m. works for today’s unveiling. 7-Coffee in Bed was beaten by double digits in the after-mentioned Beholder Mile but did finish second to Desert Dawn two-back in the grade 3 La Canada. The daughter of Curlin makes her third start of the form cycle today for Mandella.
Selections: 3-5-7
Race #10: 5-Runamileinmyshoes has hit the board in all four career turf starts for trainer Jeff Mullins, with improving Beyers in each subsequent start. The 3-year-old filly adds blinkers today hoping the equipment change assists in finally getting over the hump. The lightly raced 6-Wishes to Riches moves back to grass on the stretch-out today for D’Amato and can improve making the all-important third career start. Her sire Grazen gets about 13% with his turf route runners. 9-Ashley’s Sandcastle was a beaten favorite in the last pair but has consistently hit the board at this level. The 4-year-old filly switches to Dettori as Hernandez lands on Runamileinmyshoes.
Selections: 5-6-9
