Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 7-Lil Light Headed (Race #4)
Race #1: 5-Annie’s Song goes route to sprint today and holds the experience edge over several of these for trainer Mark Glatt. The filly has 4 straight ITM finishes since shipping over from GB and deserves another chance to break through the Maiden ranks. 6-Honor It has not been out in nearly 9 months but has trained forwardly for return effort; adds Lasix today and was well-backed in debut when off slowly. 1-Granola Girl was a beaten favorite in last and has been competitive at this level for Baltas.
Race #2: 5-Conundrum is a re-claim that’s been knocking on the door at this level in last three consecutive starts. Today’s 7-furlong trip looks like a nice fit. 4-Vetoed is also getting some class relief and makes 2nd start off the layoff for Hernandez and McCarthy. This duo teamed up with impressive debut winning filly Midnight Memories April 30. 2-Liar Liar debuts for barn that has had some decent success with Maiden Claiming first time starters.
Race #3: 4-Encroachment is suspiciously dropped off the claim and sharp runner-up finish but attracts top turf rider and has had good success at today’s mile trip. 5-Tartini this veteran 8-year-old gelding is only 1 for 14 over the SA turf course but has been freshened for this; drops in class and has run some of the field’s best grass figures two and three-back. 2-Via Egnatia has speed; inside draw and gets in light with 7 lb. apprentice.
Race #4: 7-Lil Light Headed opened up a clear lead when dropped into Maiden Claimers in career start number two but got leg weary late and finished a tiring third as the beaten chalk. The 4-year-old gelding goes 2nd time Lasix today making his 3rd lifetime start and second start at this reduced level. He looks like the controlling speed and deserves another chance to make amends at this reduced level. 6-Chris Fix makes the all-important 3rd start off the layoff today; drops in class, and last two Beyer main track figures fit well against this weak bunch. 2-Its Big goes dirt to turf and is likely to improve on the significant class drop.
Race #5: 7-Ghostem adds blinkers today after showing good speed in most recent effort when settling for 2nd best against several of these same fillies. She looms the likely favorite in here owning the field’s best last out turf Beyer (64). 3-Avery Blue was a decent 5th in debut behind top choice and this lightly raced filly is eligible to move forward off that effort. She’s by multiple G1 winner Air Force Blue. 4-Lady Blackbird has had two slow starts and could improve for trainer Carla Gaines making career start number three.
Race #6: Recent Maiden winner 6-Thrive was widening with each stride going a mile and is a serious threat again this afternoon on the lead making first start against winners at 7 panels. This will be his 3rd start off the layoff for trainer Michael McCarthy. 3-Dance Company was claimed by trainer Mike Puype off Maiden victory March 26 and this barn clicks at a solid 30% rate with newly acquired purchases the past 3 years. This 4-year-old gelding by Uncle Mo has trained well for his new connections. 7-Americaredwhiteblu was snatched for 50k off beaten favorite Churchill try last June and has trained smartly for Southern California unveiling. This barn has solid numbers with extended layoff runners and the fact he’s not offered for sale is an encouraging sign.
Race #7: 8-So It Would Seem has speed and drops back in to face claimers for trainer John Sadler while making his grass debut. Some mixed signals here as lucrative jockey/trainer combo are an impressive 4 for 6 (67%) with a $4.93 ROI with 2nd off the claim runners at Santa Anita. However, her sire Honor Code is only 4 for 67 (5%) with turf sprint runners according to DRF Formulator. Our best guess is she takes the lead early today and never looks back. 2-Miracle of Hope returns off a 9-month hiatus and is offered for a $50k tag this afternoon. This 4-year-old filly has a couple turf efforts on the resume that would be competitive in here. The other Sadler filly 7-Super Renee returns with Lasix and has not been seen since being claimed for $32k and finishing 2nd behind two-time winner Blame It On Rose back in August at Del Mar.
Race #8: 6-Claim of Passion goes route to sprint off the newly acquired purchase for lucrative claiming barn and should get plenty of pace to set-up closing kick. This jockey/trainer combo scored with Antithetical April 30. 8-Black Storm this veteran 8-year-old gelding is a 10-time winner and drops in class this afternoon off troubled 5th place finish against better. He’s another who should benefit from a projected rapid pace. 7-Reckoning Day adds blinkers; is drawn outside and takes a significant class drop for trainer Craig Dollase. This gelding could get first run just behind other speed signed on in here.
Race #9: 9-Beef Winslow was a sharp Maiden winner when stretched out to a mile April 2 and this speedy colt looks ready to tackle winners for trainer Doug O’Neil. 5-Handy Dandy owns the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (88) and drops in class today off back-to-back stake placements. The 3-year-old gelding attracts Hernandez in the saddle and has hit the board in all his SA turf starts. 7-Stotland adds blinkers off back-to-back wins and today’s extended distance should be right in this gelding’s wheelhouse.