Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-Frog (Race 8)
Race #1: Selections: 3-5-1
3-Yacowlef (Ire) has won four of his last five turf starts (both sprinting and routing) and is a logical threat to score again on the stretch-out, having posted some of the fastest turf Beyers in the field. 5-Simplexity through in a clunker for trainer Dan Blacker when trying the downhill course on April 19, but won three straight prior to that subpar effort. The 4-year-old gelding is eligible to bounce back, stretching out over the regular turf course. 1-Hurricane Cloud was only three-quarters of a length behind Yacowlef two-back and figures to be right there with a good trip.
Race #2: Selections: 4-2-3
4-Naftis has been beaten by double digits in the last pair but drops in for a career-low claiming tag today and is eligible to wake up against this softer group. The 4-year-old gelding has enough positional speed to stay within striking range. 2-Uplift exits an even fifth against similar on May 10 but makes his third start of the form cycle today and does have the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (57). The 1 for 23 3-Six Hot Grands has good speed but has had few excuses in the last pair when fading late against similar.
Race #3: Selections: 3-1-5
The 8-year-old 3-Ole Silver has been plagued by layoff lines and absent nearly 11 months, but moves back to dirt today for D’Amato on the class drop and figures to be on or close to the lead this afternoon against this inferior group. She’s trained well over at Los Al in recent weeks. 1-Tiergarten goes turf to dirt, taking a sizable class plunge this afternoon for trainer George Papaprodromou. The 7-year-old mare was a solid second in her lone try going one mile over the main track. 5-Sweet Hello backed up badly in the last but was a strong winner against this level three and four-back and second against much better two-back. This mare is a solid win candidate if she can rebound off that last disappointing try for the always dangerous veteran Desormeaux-Hess combo.
Race #4: Selections: 4-7-6
4-Jimmy Blue Jeans drops from $32k claimers down to $20,000 this afternoon for Mullins, returning off a 10-week mini-freshening. The six-time winning gelding must deal with other speed signed on here this afternoon, but switches to jockey Juan Hernandez and figures to work out a favorable trip. Blinkers on 7-Lil Richards Bello goes dirt to turf off the April 19 claim and has run well over this turf course. This barn has done well with new acquisitions, and this veteran 8-year-old gelding was a game off-the-pace winner going this one-mile trip three-back to close out his 2024 campaign. 6-Brazenly moves back to dirt, having finished second in his last three consecutive races, and figures to get a live race flow to close into.
Race #5: Selections: 1-3-7
1-The Gypsy Cowboy makes career start number 11 today but exits a runner-up finish at this level on May 3 finishing in front of next-out winner Silver N Black. The 3-year-old’s main track Beyers have increased in each of his last three subsequent starts. Class dropping 3-Toppers At Seaside has flashed speed in all his main track route tries to date and figures to be aggressively sent again by Carmouche. Turf to dirt 7-Power Play has shown little in four lifetime starts for conditioner Richard Mandella but adds blinkers today and drops in for a first-time tag. The gelding is likely to improve in this softer spot. 6-Jumper Cables returns as a first-time gelding on the class drop off the mini-freshening for trainer Ryan Hanson, who won a pair of races last weekend.
Race #6: Selections: 2-8-7
The 8-year-old mare 2-Ultimate Hy is back routing on turf, which is where she has run some of her better races. She figures to show more speed today on the stretch out. 8-Big Mama Sue is a multiple winner over the track and distance, exiting a runner-up grass effort going one mile on May 16. The veteran mare is reunited with veteran pilot, Kent Desormeaux. 7–Vincero Grande finished an even third in her most recent try on April 27, but drops in class today while making her third try of the form cycle, and she should be running on late.
Race #7: Selections: 2-5-3
The Baffert-trained 2-Nysos has three wins and a second from four career starts and just missed by a neck in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs on May 3 when finishing in a dead heat for the place spot. This talented son of Nyquist makes his second start off the bench today, has fired two sharp bullet drills since that last top effort, and figures to be a handful in here, returning to Southern California and a likley fast racetrack. The Grade 2 winning 5-Dr. Venkman is back off a nine-month layoff for trainer Mark Glatt on the turnback and has trained exceptionally well for today’s return to action. The 5-year-old gelded son of Ghostzapper loves this seven-furlong trip (3-1-2-0). The 2023 winner of this event, 3-Spirit of Makena, has been plagued by layoff lines in recent years, but makes his second start of this year, exiting a third-place finish in the Grade 3 San Carlos.
Race #8: Selections 3-4-6
3-Frog flashed good speed before surrendering late when facing off against several of these on May 3 and deserves another chance at today’s reduced $50k maiden claiming level for trainer Michael McCarthy. The Frosted filly figures to be on the lead again, shortening up to six panels. 4-Infinity Dream rallied for the place spot, finishing in front of Frog in the aforementioned May 3 event, and now makes the all-important third career try for Baltas. Frog’s stablemate, 6-Uptown Sweetheart, hasn’t been seen in nine months since finishing third at Del Mar in her grass route debut and now returns for today’s $50k tag. The daughter of Mo Town has trained well in recent weeks for today’s return to action, and this barn is a solid 3 for 10 (30%) with a positive ROI with horses dropping from MDSW to Maiden Claiming off >180 days’ rest.
Race #9: Selections 3-8-4
3-Grazen Sun was a solid second at 20-1 on May 2, going this six-furlong trip for trainer Sergio Morfin, earning a field’s best last-out (79) Beyer. The 7-time winning 6-year-old gelding figures to be on or close to the lead today and is a gate-to-wire threat with an alert break. 8-Howbeit returns to southern California after spending the vast majority of the last two years racing at Turf Paradise, Arapahoe, and Wyoming Downs. The veteran 8-year-old gelding is 13 for 52 lifetime and is back in the Peter Miller barn. He’s run recent main track Beyers that match up well here. 4-Bronko Nagurski goes first off the claim for trainer Jeff Mullins, exiting a 2 ¾-length score on May 10 against softer. This barn has solid numbers with new acquisitions and is a threat right back for his new connections.
Race #10: Selections 5-4-2
5-Invincible Molly (GB) rallied for the place spot despite traffic issues when returning off a nine-month layoff for conditioner Jeff Mullins and now makes her second try off the bench. The filly makes her second try over the downhill layout at today’s $50k claiming tag and is a logical fit right back. 4-Lovely Idaho has won two straight, including a gate-to-wire nose victory over the downhill layout on April 4 over a pair of next-out winners. The lightly raced 2-Quick Brown Fox returns to turf, where she was a sharp maiden winner two back for trainer Richard Mandella. The 4-year-old daughter of Justify has trained sharply over the synthetic track since that last main track try, and makes her third start of the form cycle today.
