Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 8-Dusty Springfield (Race 1)
Race #1: 8-Dusty Springfield finished fifth Oct. 6 in well-backed debut after a tardy beginning and is eligible to move forward off that try for trainer Phil D’Amato. This shrewd barn is 17 for 73 (23%) with a $2.45 ROI for the past 4 years with second-time turf starters at SA. 5-Satoshi exits the same race as the top choice when flashing improved speed and finishing third and is a logical threat if she can repeat that performance. 2-Hey Demps is back on grass where she earned a career-best Beyer two-back while going two turns. She tries sprinting on turf this afternoon for conditioner Mike Puype.
Selections: 8-5-2
Race #2: 5-Thompson gets the tepid vote in this weak group of juvenile $50k Maiden Claimers. The 2-year-old gelding by First Samurai makes the all-important third career start this afternoon, gets a weight break, and owns the field’s best main track Beyer(s). The trouble-prone 1-Veritas Aequitas returns to the main track after venturing to Golden Gate in start number two when breaking through the gate, racing wide, and then making up some ground in the final furlong. 4-Uncle Juju was an even fifth in the Del Mar unveiling Sept. 8 and doesn’t have to improve dramatically in his second start to contend in this lackluster spot.
Selections: 5-1-4
Race #3: Dirt to turf 6-Miss Monarch Bay is by top sire Into Mischief ($940K purchase) who gets just an average 13% with his grass route prodigy, but this 3-year-old filly attracts top turf pilot Rispoli and is likely to improve immensely with today’s stretch-out and surface change. 1-Happy Happy led and tired late in her most recent grass route and now makes her second start off the bench for trainer Paddy Gallagher. 4-Make It Snow drops back down into the MDSW ranks where she’s run very well sprinting on turf. East Coast invader 3-Machiavellique has had little success in New York and Florida, but hails from a top barn and lands Dettori who has set up shop in Southern California.
Selections: 6-1-4
Race #4: 1-Ice Dancing was a decisive winner of the seven-furlong grade 3 Santa Ynez when last seen nine months ago and has worked steadily for today’s return effort for trainer Richard Mandella. The 3-year-old filly by Frosted must negotiate the tricky rail draw but adds Lasix, is reunited with jockey Mike Smith, and looks well-meant off the bench for a red-hot barn. 6-Doinitthehardway is back sprinting for Team Baffert after being outrun and eased in her last disappointing try at Del Mar Aug. 5. This daughter of Street Sense has worked extremely well locally since that subpar performance and has good speed from the outside. 3-Violent Runner gets some class relief by dropping out of back-to-back grade 3s and is 3-1-0 from 7 starts at Santa Anita.
Selections: 1-6-3
Race #5: 8-Circle of Trust ran a better than originally looks fourth on Oct. 6 debut when hitting the gate and breaking awkwardly, steadying off heels, and then becoming rank before eventually gathering herself to finish evenly. She’s eligible to improve substantially in her second start for D’Amato. 3–Avoir stretches out for the first time for Team Miller after three ITM finishes sprinting on the grass to begin her career. The 2-year-old filly by More Than Ready is reunited with Hernandez and has earned some of the higher turf Beyers in this field. 6–Nakota (Ire) makes her first stateside start for conditioner Paddy Gallagher off a pair of subpar performances over in Ireland. Rispoli sees fit to ride, however, which could potentially indicate there’s more ability than this filly has shown thus far.
Selections: 8-3-6
Race #6: The speedy 8-Tiz Tok drops back down to the level of claim from two-back where the 3-year-old battled on determinedly for the place spot. He makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon and looms a serious gate-to-wire threat. 7-All the King’s Men goes two sprints to a route today coming off back-to-back third-place efforts against this same N2L level. 3-Take Charge Curly is 1 for 14 but finished third against similar in his last effort Sept. 30 while earning the field’s best last-out main track Beyer. The gelding has 5 ITM finishes (0-2-3) from 9 starts at SA,
Selections: 8-7-3
Race #7: 3-Rose Barton (Ire) comes off a solid gate-to-wire win Aug. 17 for a veteran successful jockey-trainer combo and has had a series of drills since that winning performance. This 4-year-old filly looks to bottom out this field once again. The French-bred 4-Grace Period (Fr) makes her stateside unveiling today for conditioner Leonard Powell with the addition of Lasix and has shown some solid ability overseas. Dettori taking over adds to the appeal. 1-Gimme Mo Baby finished third in an off-the-turf event Sept. 30 and gets back on grass this afternoon for the Papaprodomou barn. This filly has been winless since last August but has run some competitive turf Beyers at this mile distance for this class level. She moves to the rail today and top turf pilot Rispoli takes over.
Selections: 3-4-1
Race #8: 4-Eligio is a logical threat once again coming off three consecutive runner-up finishes to start his career and has successfully trained over this track since mid-September. The Sadler-trained pair of 7-Schwarzmeier and 8-Tapalo both deserve consideration. The former is a firster by multiple grade 1 winner Liam’s Map who has shown some average-looking a.m. drills but meets a suspect group. The latter is a Tapature juvenile who flashed good speed in his Sept. 24 debut and should be a handful with any normal second-out improvement. This jockey-trainer combo scored with Maiden Claimer Sorbet last Sunday.
Selections: 4-8-7
Race #9: Multiple stakes winner 4-Visitant has done most of his running over the Turfway synthetic footing but gets some class relief this afternoon dropping out of consecutive grade 2 events and makes the third start of the form cycle today for Hernandez and Miller. 5-Easter (Fr) has been absent since late August and invades from the East Coast for trainer Graham Motion. This 5-year-old gelding is a 4-time winner at today’s mile trip and projects to be motoring home late for Dettori. 3-Astronomer exits a strong runner-up try and career-best grass Beyer in the grade 2 City of Hope Mile Sept. 30 when coming up just a neck shy after carving out all the fractions on the front-end.
Selections: 4-5-3
