Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Sugar Fish (Race 2)
Race #1: Trainer Phil D’Amato gets an ordinary 11% with his debuting turf runners at Santa Anita but firster 3-Tom Seaver deserves some consideration in the Sunday opener. The 2-year-old colt has some sharp a.m. drills on the resume and his sire Sir Prancealot (Ire) is a solid 16% with juvenile debuting prodigy and 25% overall with turf sprinters. 1-Beer Money steps up in class off encouraging third-place finish on Sept. 16 debut when beaten half a length and is bred to handle today’s surface switch. His sire Dad’s Caps gets a strong 6 for 20 (30%) with turf sprinters. 7-Smiling Jojo (By Smiling Tiger) makes his debut for conditioner Brian Koriner off a strong work tab and barn is no stranger to winning with debut runners.
Selections: 3-1-7
Race #2: It’s a small sample but trainer Librado Barocio is 2 for 3 (67%) with a $5.27 ROI with MDSW to Maiden Claiming dropdowns. His filly 5-Sugar Fish drops in for a first-time tag and goes two sprints to a route. She’s by Accelerate who was a multiple grade 1 winner around two turns. 4-California Code is also plunging in for a first-time tag for trainer Peter Miller who has solid stats with this significant class drop. The 2-year-old filly by Honor Code has run both career starts at a mile. 2-Asian Matriarch was a beaten favorite fourth in the last effort Sept. 9 and now drops off the John Sadler purchase–which is not the most encouraging sign. Nonetheless, she fits well on speed figures against this suspect group.
Selections: 5-4-2
Race #3: A trickly allowance sprint for fillies and mares with several directions on can go. 3–Gypsy Lynn comes off a career-best turf Beyer and has hit the board in the last five of six starts. The 4-year-old filly projects to be on or close to the lead again this afternoon. 4-Miss Lizzy co-tops the field’s best last-out grass Beyer after breaking slowly and encountering late traffic issues. This daughter of Classic Empire should be motoring home late. 2-Flame McGoon has shown little in the last pair of efforts but moves back to the Santa Anita turf course where she’s had prior success.
Selections: 3-4-2
Race #4: 3-Bella Vienna flashed speed and tired in both Del Mar starts and now drops in for a first-time tag for start number three. This filly has worked twice over the local footing and her speed should carry her much further against this softer group. 4-Coconut Girl debuts for a low-profile barn that scored with firster Magic Spoon back on Oct. 7. 1-Big Rainbow is the most experienced runner in the field, removes the blinkers this afternoon and was an improved fourth when dropped to this level in her last start.
Selections: 3-4-1
Race #5: 2-My Moon showed little in her last pair but adds blinkers today, drops in for a first-time tag, and shortens back to a sprint for trainer Adam Kitchingman. The filly’s last two works at San Luis Rey have been sharp. 4-Sorbet takes a somewhat suspicious drop into Maiden Claimers after a sharp runner-up against MDSW company at Los Al on debut Sept. 17. The 3-year-old filly goes turf to dirt today for Sadler and her sire Nyquist gets an average 15% with grass sprint runners. Tough to gauge. 7-Encolpion returns to turf (her preferred footing) and projects to sit a favorable stalking journey with today’s outside draw.
Selections: 2-4-7
Race #6: Class dropping 5-Tiff With Jimmy is back on the main track where she’s run her best two efforts for trainer Mark Glatt. The 3-year-old filly has good positional speed and should be tough to beat at short odds at today’s bottom-level $20k claimer. 6-Turquoise Bikini makes career start number 13 today but has never raced for this low of a claiming tag. She draws outside with speed and her (59) Beyer from three-back is above par for this class level. 3-Unkept Secret was an improved third when dropped to this level Sept. 10 and makes third start of the form cycle this afternoon for conditioner Paula Capestro.
Selections: 5-6-3
Race #7: First-time gelding 3–Americaredwhiteblu hasn’t been out in over a year, but this hot barn is solid with these long layoff types and this speedy 5-year-old gelding has trained well for today’s return try. His stablemate 7-Tigerhon (Fr) is a logical threat right back after a solid closing win Aug. 26 at Del Mar. The ultra-consistent 1-Lemon Sushi co-tops this field’s best last-out grass Beyer and has hit the board in his last six efforts.
Selections: 3-7-1
Race #8: 7-Mantanzas Creek is by multiple grade 1 winner Empire Maker and debuts with Lasix off a solid work tab for trainer Tim Yakteen. This 3-year-old colt is nicely drawn outside for today’s unveiling while showing good zip in his a.m. drills and this lucrative jockey-trainer combo is 7 for 20 (35%) with a $4.27 ROI the past two years. First-time gelding 1-Palagio makes start number 11 this afternoon for Sheriffs and Smith but has run three of the fastest main track Beyers in this field (84,80,84). 6-Central Dispatch finished a good second Aug. 17 in a bulky field when dropped in against Maiden Claimers and has continued to work extremely well since that encouraging try for trainer John Sadler.
Selections: 7-1-6
Race #9: 2-Touchdown Kittle makes his second start off the bench and first around two turns for trainer George Papaprodromou. The 3-year-old gelding is bred to relish routing on grass and is a strong gate-to-wire threat this afternoon with top turf pilot Rispoli back aboard. 3–Chrome to Riches removes the blinkers today, makes the third start of the form cycle, and was a game runner-up two-back at Del Mar with today’s rider Fresu. 4-Dark Marcus has had several chances now for trainer Peter Miller making career start number fifteen today but has hit the board in seven of 14 tries and merits consideration again based on that fact alone.
Selections: 2-3-4
