Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 6-Loterie (Ire) (Race 5)
Race #1: A competitive and tricky full field of 3-year-old filly Maiden Special Weight turf sprinters begins the 12-race Santa Anita Saturday program. 8-Stop Digging returns of a six-month freshening after an encouraging second-place debut main track try back on Sept. 9. The 3-year-old filly adds Lasix and is bred to handle the turf. 6-Moment’s Pleasure hasn’t been out in nearly seven months but, when last seen, was runner-up routing on grass against Maiden Special Weight types at Del Mar. 4-Danzingwith Maxine (by Danzing Candy), debuts off a promising work tab for conditioner Cliff Sise. The major knock, however, is that 3-year-old and up debuting prodigy by this sire is only 3 for 62 (4%).
Selections: 8-6-4
Race #2: The Mark Glatt-trained pair of 3-Santarena and 4-Ball Don’t Lie are hard to separate. The edge goes to Santarena, who had a troubled trip in his well-backed March 9 debut when off slowly and rallying wide late to round out the superfecta. The son of Omaha Beach adds blinkers today and the Glatt barn is 21 for 76 (28%) with a $2.58 ROI with second-time dirt sprint starters. His stablemate Ball Don’t Lie finished in front of Santarena in the after-mentioned March 9 event earning the field’s best last-out Beyer (87). Like his stablemate, he’s eligible to move forward off that encouraging unveiling. 7-Winterfell was a disappointing beaten favorite for Baffert, exiting the same race as the top pair when tiring to fifth. The sophomore colt by Arrogate is eligible to improve if he runs to his promising pedigree and solid morning drills.
Selections: 3-4-7
Race #3: The stakes-winning 3-Big Summer hasn’t been out in close to 11 months but has proven she can fire fresh off the bench, and the 6-year-old mare has never been off the board in all seven Santa Anita grass tries (7-3-2-2). A spirited early pace will help her chances late on the scene. 8-Excelia (Ire) returns from an extended layoff for D’Amato but has trained smartly for today’s comeback effort and gets some class relief this afternoon. 2-Queen Molotov has been first or second in the last five sprint starts and projects to be on or close to the lead today, making her second start off the bench. She moves back to turf off a recent runner-up synthetic finish at Golden Gate.
Selections: 3-8-2
Race #4: 5-Quick Kate goes turf to dirt for trainer Craig Lewis after showing solid turf ability in all four-lifetime starts. Her pedigree and morning main track drills suggest she’ll handle dirt just fine. 2-Mirinda was a disappointing, well-beaten third in career start number two after a 6 ½-length Del Mar romp in debut last September when earning a solid (82) Beyer. She’s trained swiftly in her a.m. drills and will likely bounce back this afternoon for trainer Gary Mandella. 3-Roberta’s Love improved dramatically in career start number two, increasing her Beyer by nearly 20 points in the Maiden score on March 17. Another potential move forward makes her a solid factor stepping up in class.
Selections: 5-2-3
Race #5: The stakes-placed 6-Loterie (Ire) hasn’t been out in seven months for trainer Phil D’Amato but showed good promise in both stateside starts at Del Mar. The 3-year-old filly has trained sharply for today’s return try and should be tough to beat dropping back down to face straight Maiden Special Weight types. 3-Kathynmarissa finished willingly for the show spot in her first Southern California start on Feb. 17 for trainer Richard Dutrow and is eligible to move forward off that effort with Dettori back for the return mount. 9-Greer My Dear stretches out today, making her second start off the layoff after running better than it initially appears on paper on Feb. 25 when forced to check mid-stretch. Improvement likely.
Selections: 6-3-9
Race #6: The speedy and undefeated 2-Kinza has won back-to-back grade 3 route events for Baffert in impressive fashion and is the 4-5 morning line choice to extend her win streak to four. The equally talented 3-Kopion is 2 for 3 lifetime and suffered her lone defeat when finishing second to the top choice back on Feb. 10. The Richard Mandella-trained 3-year-old is fresh and fit for today’s rematch. Baffert’s other filly, 1-Nothing Like You, makes her second start off the bench today, coming off a well-beaten fourth in the grade 3 Las Virgenes. The daughter of Malibu Moon has trained sharply since that last try and won three straight prior to closing out her 2023 campaign.
Selections: 2-3-1
Race #7: The late-closing 10-Irish Patsy projects to get a live race to flow to utilize her late kick this afternoon for trainer Michael McCarthy. The filly is reunited with top turf pilot Umberto Rispoli, who was aboard for a pair of victories. 5-Mrs. Astor returns off of a seven-month freshening for conditioner Jonathan Thomas while making her Southern California unveiling. The stakes-placed 4-year-old filly is another who should benefit from a contentious early pace. 2-Irresistible Force has other speed to deal with today but was a good second when facing similar on March 9 when runner-up at 26-1. She makes the all-important third start off the bench today with an improving Beyer pattern.
Selections: 10-5-2
Race #8: 3-California Tiger makes second start off the Hector Palma claim and adds blinkers today. This gelding shows two sharp 4-furlong drills since his last subpar seventh-place finish on March 8, presumably with the new equipment in place. He’ll be tough to beat if able to run back to the seven-furlong (86) Beyer two-back. The lightly raced 2-Big Bet Jafinsafa returns off a 10-month layoff for trainer Carla Gaines off some solid a.m. drills, which include back-to-back bullet works on March 15 and 22. Both of his main track efforts were sharp to begin his career. 7-Left Hand Man exits a third-place finish on March 10 at this level and can move forward for Glatt, making the his second start off the layoff.
Selections: 3-2-7
Race #9: 6-Ag Bullet defeated both Gracelund Gray and Miss Lizzy with a solid performance in the Wishing Well Stakes when returning off an extended layoff and has returned to work four times since that top effort for conditioner Richard Baltas. A repeat is well within reach. 7-Lucky Girl (Ire) drops out of the grade 2 Buena Vista and makes second start off the bench for trainer Phil D’Amato. The multiple stakes winner shortens up and makes her downhill course debut. 1-Gracelund Gray finished second in the Wishing Well and is reunited with the winning rider today but will need to negotiate the tricky rail draw. She’ll likely be pushed along from the get-go.
Selections: 6-7-1
Race #10: 3-Stronghold was an impressive 2 ½-length winner of the Grade 3 Sunland Derby in his most recent start on Feb. 18 and has trained lights-out since that winning effort. The son of Ghostzapper fired a “best of 64” five-furlongs in :58.2 on March 25 and is on the improve. Grade 2 San Felipe winner 4-Imagination has run some of the fastest Beyer figures in the field for Baffert and has never been worse than first or second in five career starts. The $1.05 million dollar Into Mischief colt is a logical threat to repeat. His stablemate, 5-Wynstock, was trounced in the grade 3 Southwest when unable to handle the off going but is eligible to bounce back here this afternoon for Team Baffert. The Los Al Futurity winner returned to work a “best of 163” four furlongs in :46 flat on March 29.
Selections: 3-4-5
Race #11: The lightly raced 7-Man Among Men returned off a long layoff to finish second Feb. 24 with a strong (89) Beyer and now stretches out to a mile today, the distance of his Maiden victory two-back. 4-Stamp My Passport has speed and makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon for trainer Leonard Powell. The 5-year-old gelding is a multiple winner over the track and distance. 6-Ottoman Prince (Ire) adds Lasix and stretches out in the second start off the layoff and second attempt stateside for D’Amato. The three-time winning gelding will likely improve off that last sixth place finish.
Selections: 7-4-6
Race #12: If the projected swift early pace comes to fruition in the Saturday afternoon nightcap, things should set up nicely for 3-Shady Tiger, who has won two straight for D’Amato by a nose and a neck and should have little difficulty handling another half a furlong while making his stakes debut. The stakes-winning 6-Last Call London shortens up this afternoon for trainer Peter Miller off a series of route efforts and can improve here with Dettori taking over. D’Amato’s other colt, 10-Tom Seaver, has looked excellent while winning both grass tries to start his career and has the right running style to merit strong consideration to potentially win his third in a row. His sire, Sir Prancealot, gets a strong 21% with his sprint dirt offspring.
Selections: 3-6-10
Well, done!