Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 4-Dance Man (Race 8)
Race #1: 4-Phenom was overmatched in the Wishing Well Stakes in her most recent start on Feb. 25 when flashing her typical early speed through taxing early fractions and fading late. The 5-year-old mare drops down to a more suitable spot this afternoon and was an impressive winner of two straight before her last misstep. She’ll be tough to overhaul on the turnback if able to replicate anything close to the (97) Beyer earned on Jan. 19. 5-Teen Drama steps up, having won two straight and winning off the re-claim by conditioner Steve Knapp on Feb. 16. This mare is 4 for 9 going this five-furlong trip and exits a career-best effort. 1-Unwritten Code has speed, the rail draw, and drops in class today for a red-hot barn.
Selections: 4-5-1
Race #2: 6-Patron d’Oro steps up off smashing 8 1/2-length win on Feb. 17 where he earned a field’s best last-out (90) Beyer. The 6-year-old gelding now goes first off the claim for Los Al-based conditioner Jesus Mendoza and looks like a short-priced gate-to-wire repeater. 3-Heartfullofstars finally broke through with an off-the-pace 15-1 upset win on Dec. 31 and has four works since that last winning effort. Turf to dirt 5-Slew’s Joy hasn’t shown much in the last two starts on grass and the Golden Gate synthetic but takes a substantial class drop today and merits a look at this $16k claiming level.
Selections: 6-3-5
Race #3: 2-King of Gosford (GB) hasn’t been out in nearly five months and makes his first U.S. start for trainer Phil D’Amato. The 3-year-old colt adds Lasix today, has trained well locally, and lures Prat for his stateside unveiling. The multiple stakes-placed 6-Charge for Gold drops in class this afternoon with the addition of Lasix and projects to get a favorable close-up stalking trip. 7-Final Boss has finished behind Charge for Gold in the last two stake efforts but shows an improving Beyer pattern for Sadler and came back to drill a bullet “best of 30” four furlongs in :47.2 on Feb. 29. He also adds Lasix this afternoon.
Selections: 2-6-7
Race #4: 3-Elector goes first off the claim today for trainer Mark Glatt after opening up a wide 9-length lead before fading late on Feb. 16. The 6-year-old gelding shortens back up to six furlongs this afternoon and has had improving Beyers with each subsequent start since November. 7-Bag’s Gold takes a substantial class plunge today from allowance to N3L for conditioner Bob Hess and holds a rare Triple Digit Beyer advantage based on recent figures. The gelding makes the all-important third start of the form cycle today and is a logical top threat. 1-Mor Tequila was beaten double digits in the last pair but drops down to a career-low claiming tag today for Baffert and continues to work well in the a.m. recording a five-furlong :59 bullet gate drill on March 6.
Selections: 3-7-1
Race #5: First-time gelding 6-Pioneer Prince returns off a three-month freshening and drops in for a first-time tag today for trainer Richard Mandella. His turf effort two-back was decent when flashing speed and fading to fifth while going this 6 ½-furlong trip. He’s no slam dunk, however. 5–Khantaro d’Oro makes start number 12 this afternoon and finished behind Quintecents in his most recent try on Jan. 20 when flashing speed and tiring late. That event has since produced a pair of next-out winners and this 5-year-old could improve on the cutback while making his second start for a tag. 1-Quintecents makes career start number 17 today and is impossible to endorse for the win, but he has finished third at this level in the last three starts and may appreciate today’s turnback.
Selections: 6-5-1
Race #6: 2-Crypto Craze steps up off the claim after blowout gate-to-wire 8 ¼-length Maiden debut score on Jan. 21. This 4-year-old gelding by Midnight Storm might be fast enough to clear these early and merits strong respect right back for top barn facing winners today. The veteran 8-year-old 4-Desmond Doss just missed by a nose on Jan. 7 when facing better and is the 7-time winner. The old warrior is the logical horse to beat at today’s reduced $20k claiming level. 9-Jamming Eddy exits a sharp 2 ¼-length win against this same level on Jan. 13 where he earned a field’s best last-out (90) Beyer speed figure. He’ll be tough right back if capable of replicating that winning performance.
Selections: 2-4-9
Race #7: 2-Mo Fox Givin blasted home late for the victory going this one-mile trip on Jan. 20 and looms a strong repeat threat stepping back up in class for Powell and Prat. Grade 3-winning 6-Zona Verde (Ire) has run well since arriving stateside last fall for trainer Phil D’Amato and stretches back out this afternoon exiting a troubled trip runner-up finish on Feb. 11. The undefeated 5-Medoro is 2 for 2 for trainer Peter Eurton showing strong late kick in both grass tries both sprinting and going two turns. A third straight victory is not out of reach this afternoon for this lightly raced 3-year-old filly.
Selections: 2-6-5
Race #8: 4-Dance Man drops in for a first-time tag today for trainer Leonard Powell and makes the all-important third career start. The Danzing Candy gelding showed improved early zip in start number two—a race that’s since produced three next-out winners. A strong gate-to-wire threat today and our Day’s Best Bet with Prat climbing aboard. Another Maiden Special Weight to Maiden Claiming class dropper is 8-Final Storm who has flashed speed in both pair of sprint efforts for conditioner Dean Pederson while posting a strong (74) Beyer in the after-mentioned Jan. 7 event that our top choice returns out of. 6-Vols has shown little thus far but moves to dirt today and is another dropping in for a first-time tag on the turnback. He’s eligible to move forward in career start number three for the Papaprodromou barn.
Selections: 4-8-6
Race #9: If today’s projected swift pace comes to fruition in the Sunday nightcap, things should set up nicely for 6-Montana, who exits a pair of sharp closing tries going this one-mile trip. He sports the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (75), which adds to the appeal. 4-Ferociously stretches out off the Sadler claim. This barn is a strong 6 for 16 (38%) with a $4.93 ROI with dirt route recent acquisitions over the past four years. 3-Flint Stroll hasn’t been seen in some seven and a half months and has done almost all his running on turf. Nonetheless, he has proven he can fire off the bench and returns protected while likely to get some pace to run into late. He’s certainly one to include in the underneath vertical exotics at a price.
Selections: 6-4-3
