Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 6-Forgiving Spirit (Race 3)
Race #1: 2-Motivating Force removes the blinkers today and drops back down into the Maiden Special Weight ranks after a disappointing effort against winners in his last try on March 1. Prat takes over for conditioner Peter Miller. 6-J Dutton goes dirt to turf, removes the blinkers, and makes his initial try around two turns for trainer Librado Barocio. This gelding has run some of the better main track Beyers in the field and has a hint of turf pedigree to suggest he’ll be competitive today with Hernandez back aboard. 1-Mystic Spirit doesn’t have a ton of grass pedigree to speak of but has speed and the rail today on the stretch out while exiting two decent main track tries.
Selections: 2-6-1
Race #2: 2-Hungry Hearts broke a step slow and had a wide journey in his initial start on Feb. 11 and can improve today on the class drop. Trainer Brian Koriner has decent stats with his second-time dirt sprint starters going 14 for 53 (26%) in the past five years. 5-Magic Account returns for a first-time tag today off a year-long layoff after flashing speed and tiring in debut. The time off and today’s drop in class are obvious concerns, but this 4-year-old gelding adds blinkers this afternoon and has worked well in his a.m. drills for a capable layoff barn. 4-Getemdusty moves back to dirt on the class plunge and has already proven he can run close to par for this reduced level.
Selections: 2-5-4
Race #3: 6-Forgiving Spirit came up just a head short in a spirited effort off of a nine-month layoff for conditioner Peter Miller earning the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (89). That March 1 event has already produced a pair of next-out winners. This gelding figures to be tough right back with Prat staying aboard. 5-Virat is a winner of two of his last three turf sprint tries and exits a decent third-place allowance effort on Feb. 24. The gelding makes his third start of the form cycle today for assistant trainer Juan Landeros, who is subbing for the suspended Dan Blacker. 1-Player B has improved substantially in the last couple of months for Team O’Neill and exits an impressive three-length Maiden score when turned back to a sprint on Feb. 11.
Selections: 6-5-1
Race #4: 3-Mobe Town is a logical threat exiting a runner-up effort at this level on Feb. 25, where he posted the field’s best last-out Beyer of (69), which is above par for this lower Maiden Claiming condition. The 0 for 19 5-Carol’s Comic has had many chances but, to her credit, does have several underneath finishes sprinting over the main track. The 5-year-old gelding has never started for this low of a claiming tag. Could this be his winning level? 1-Luther Pass hasn’t been out in over a year but returns as a first-time gelding today at this bottom claiming level for an excellent layoff barn.
Selections: 3-5-1
Race #5: The late closing 6–Carmelita’s Man makes his third start of the form cycle today, exiting back-to-back (92) Beyers for trainer Dean Pederson. The 8-time winning gelding switches to Prat today and will likely get a good trip from off the pace. 4-Cathkin Peak (Ire) finished in front of Carmelita’s Man in his most recent effort on Feb. 24 when closing well for the place spot off a five-month freshening. The 6-year-old gelding goes first off the claim today for a barn that’s a solid 5 for 20 (25%) with a lofty $4.82 ROI with recent turf acquisitions. He’s reunited with winning pilot Rispoli today. The ultra-consistent 1-Crosby Beach goes first off the claim today for trainer Peter Miller and finished third at this level in back-to-back tries, two and three-back.
Selections: 6-4-1
Race #6: The $1.15 million 2022 Keeneland purchase 2-Theismann (by Quality Road) flashed good speed before fading to fifth in his long-awaited Feb. 24 unveiling and is likely to move forward today in career start number two. Trainer John Shirreffs is an impressive 6 for 19 (32%) with his second-time dirt route runners. Another pricey Quality Road colt 1-Lake Superior has speed and the rail for Baffert making the third start of the form cycle this afternoon. Hernandez climbs back aboard. 3-Ashcroft was runner-up with a lofty (94) Beyer figure when switched back to dirt and dismissed at 30-1 in the after-mentioned Feb. 24 event for trainer Bob Hess. He is an obvious threat if he can run back to that top figure. I have my doubts, however.
Selections: 2-1-3
Race #7: The multiple stakes-winning 7-Clovisconnection returns from a five-month layoff sporting a four-race win streak for his connections. The gelding has worked well for today’s return try at this Northern California Golden Gate base for conditioner Blaine Wright, and he appears to be the speed of the speed. A strong gate-to-wire threat. 3-Catalina Eddy exits a sharp N1X score over this course on Feb. 24, posting a career-best grass Beyer. This 4-year-old colt may get a similar stalking trip again today. 2-Lovesick Blues has run well enough over this downhill layout for trainer Steve Miyadi, and this gelding is a definite solid threat for the underneath vertical exotics closing from off the pace.
Selections: 7-3-2
Race #8: 9-Visually gets some class relief this afternoon by dropping out of back-to-back stake tries. The filly must negotiate the outside post but switches to top turf pilot Risploi and is eligible to improve. 3-Lamporghini steps up in super sharp form for trainer Doug O’Neill, having won two straight going today’s one-mile trip. A threepeat is well within reach for this streaking Danzing Candy filly. 4-Blackpink (Ire) goes dirt to turf in her second stateside start for D’Amato and is almost certain to improve switching to Prat. The speedy 8-Elegant goes two sprints to a route today for Baffert after fading on the lead on March 4 when battling through some taxing fractions.
Selections: 9-3-4
