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Saratoga: Summer 2019 meet data overview (2 year old races)

by john_camardoJuly 10, 20195 min read

Photo credit: NYRA/Chelsea Durand

Intro

Please follow me on Twitter @john_camardo. I am always happy to discuss any of what I’ve written below. Also, please check out some of the other posts I’ve written.

Given there are plenty of two year old races run at Saratoga, I thought that for this post, I might take a little look at some of the two year old restricted races to see if there were any profitable angles. Turns out, there are some profitable angles. Feel free to load those up into your STATS profile, and keep an eye out.

In the interest of also trying to provide some ideas for vertical plays, I have included Place and Show tallies for each trainer, on each surface.

Two year old restricted races, first time starters

The tables below are filtered for trainers with 10 or more starts. This is for only first time starters in age restricted two year old races.

COURSE	TRAINER	PAYOUT	EXPECTED_WINS	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	MOUNTS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Turf	Chad Brown	23.3	0.21	5	5	6	27	0.19	0.59	0.89	0.86
Turf	William Mott	56.2	0.07	3	2	0	17	0.18	0.29	2.45	3.31
Turf	Todd Pletcher	14.45	0.15	3	6	3	23	0.13	0.52	0.86	0.63
Turf	Wesley Ward	14.8	0.14	3	1	1	13	0.23	0.38	1.6	1.14
Turf	George Weaver	33.4	0.12	2	4	1	14	0.14	0.5	1.18	2.39
Turf	Mark Casse	9.35	0.15	2	4	2	17	0.12	0.47	0.8	0.55
Turf	H. Motion	17.3	0.11	1	2	4	18	0.06	0.39	0.5	0.96
Turf	Dominick Schettino	10	0.04	1	0	0	11	0.09	0.09	2.41	0.91
Turf	Linda Rice	4.7	0.12	1	1	1	16	0.06	0.19	0.51	0.29
Turf	Gary Contessa	0	0.05	0	1	2	17	0	0.18	0	0
Turf	Jeremiah Englehart	0	0.11	0	2	0	10	0	0.2	0	0

Notes for turf, two year old, first time starters:

I find Bill Motts appearance at the top of the list to be very interesting. He’s obviously a great trainer, but from the perspective of the numbers, he’s only expected to win 7% of the time, but actually wins at an 18% clip.
Linda Rice, on the other hand gets bet like she should win 12% of the time with first time two year olds, but on has 1 win from 16 runners, not to mention a relatively low ROI.

COURSE	TRAINER	PAYOUT	EXPECTED_WINS	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	MOUNTS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Dirt	Todd Pletcher	50.65	0.21	14	7	12	72	0.19	0.46	0.91	0.7
Dirt	Chad Brown	35.6	0.23	10	13	10	53	0.19	0.62	0.81	0.67
Dirt	Steven Asmussen	51.15	0.13	6	4	4	34	0.18	0.41	1.39	1.5
Dirt	Jeremiah Englehart	27.35	0.1	5	4	1	24	0.21	0.42	2.04	1.14
Dirt	Kiaran McLaughlin	22.75	0.13	4	2	3	21	0.19	0.43	1.43	1.08
Dirt	George Weaver	49.95	0.11	3	2	0	17	0.18	0.29	1.58	2.94
Dirt	Rudy Rodriguez	16.9	0.13	3	3	9	38	0.08	0.39	0.59	0.44
Dirt	Linda Rice	21.85	0.12	3	3	1	13	0.23	0.54	1.85	1.68
Dirt	Gary Contessa	35.4	0.05	2	4	2	23	0.09	0.35	1.67	1.54
Dirt	Wesley Ward	10.95	0.12	2	2	0	10	0.2	0.4	1.64	1.1
Dirt	Michael Maker	15	0.08	2	0	1	15	0.13	0.2	1.64	1
Dirt	Dominick Schettino	11.1	0.07	1	2	2	17	0.06	0.29	0.88	0.65
Dirt	Christophe Clement	4.55	0.11	1	2	2	11	0.09	0.45	0.8	0.41
Dirt	Claude McGaughey III	7.5	0.1	1	0	4	13	0.08	0.38	0.79	0.58
Dirt	Dallas Stewart	13.2	0.06	1	1	0	14	0.07	0.14	1.2	0.94
Dirt	Mark Casse	3.45	0.15	1	2	4	15	0.07	0.47	0.44	0.23
Dirt	Kenneth McPeek	34.5	0.06	1	3	0	13	0.08	0.31	1.38	2.65
Dirt	Mark Hennig	3.85	0.07	1	1	1	12	0.08	0.25	1.28	0.32
Dirt	Gary Sciacca	0	0.03	0	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
Dirt	George Arnold, II	0	0.04	0	0	1	11	0	0.09	0	0
Dirt	Brian Lynch	0	0.11	0	2	1	10	0	0.3	0	0
Dirt	D. Lukas	0	0.05	0	0	0	22	0	0	0	0
Dirt	Ron Moquett	0	0.07	0	0	1	13	0	0.08	0	0
Dirt	Thomas Albertrani	0	0.06	0	4	3	27	0	0.26	0	0
Dirt	William Mott	0	0.07	0	1	2	29	0	0.1	0	0
Dirt	Michelle Nevin	0	0.05	0	1	2	13	0	0.23	0	0
Dirt	Nicholas Zito	0	0.04	0	0	0	22	0	0	0	0

Observations for dirt, two year old, first time starters:

Steve Asmussen is among the top three of this group and has a pretty significant ROI, though this is most likely due to a few larger priced winners. Note that the payout for his 6 runners is more than Todd Pletcher’s payout for 14 winners. That being said, this might be a good place to look for some longer priced two year old firsters on the dirt.
Plenty of consistently unsuccessful trainers at the bottom of the chart with no winners. The public does seem to have caught onto this trend for these trainers, as most of them are expected to win less than 10% of the time.
Linda Rice on dirt is very different from the above stat for turf, two year old, first timers. Here she wins at a 23% clip (albeit from only 13 starters), but hits the board over half the time. Not to mention a nice, hefty ROI.

Trainers with 2 year old restricted races

The tables below are filtered for trainers with 10 or more starts. This is inclusive of both first time starters, and horses with racing experience.

COURSE	TRAINER	PAYOUT	EXPECTED_WINS	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	MOUNTS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Turf	Todd Pletcher	51.75	0.18	11	10	8	52	0.21	0.56	1.2	1
Turf	Chad Brown	26.9	0.21	6	5	6	32	0.19	0.53	0.88	0.84
Turf	Wesley Ward	42	0.17	6	5	4	35	0.17	0.43	1.04	1.2
Turf	William Mott	59.4	0.11	4	4	0	27	0.15	0.3	1.35	2.2
Turf	George Weaver	44.95	0.14	4	4	2	20	0.2	0.5	1.45	2.25
Turf	Mark Casse	18.95	0.16	4	7	5	31	0.13	0.52	0.81	0.61
Turf	H. Motion	27.85	0.13	3	3	7	26	0.12	0.5	0.91	1.07
Turf	Christophe Clement	11.2	0.2	3	4	2	17	0.18	0.53	0.9	0.66
Turf	David Donk	52.45	0.11	3	0	3	11	0.27	0.55	2.42	4.77
Turf	Steven Asmussen	10.5	0.15	2	1	0	16	0.12	0.19	0.84	0.66
Turf	Linda Rice	8.05	0.14	2	1	2	18	0.11	0.28	0.8	0.45
Turf	Gary Contessa	4	0.06	1	1	4	32	0.03	0.19	0.51	0.12
Turf	Jeremiah Englehart	5.5	0.11	1	2	0	14	0.07	0.21	0.65	0.39
Turf	Carlos Martin	9.1	0.08	1	0	1	13	0.08	0.15	0.91	0.7
Turf	Dominick Schettino	10	0.05	1	1	1	15	0.07	0.2	1.34	0.67
Turf	Rudy Rodriguez	3.9	0.1	1	3	1	15	0.07	0.33	0.68	0.26
Turf	Kenneth McPeek	7.5	0.07	1	0	1	13	0.08	0.15	1.05	0.58
Turf	Michael Maker	6.5	0.13	1	2	4	16	0.06	0.44	0.49	0.41
Turf	David Cannizzo	0	0.08	0	1	2	10	0	0.3	0	0
Turf	Thomas Morley	0	0.08	0	1	2	11	0	0.27	0	0

Observations for the turf:

Todd and Chad, in no surprise, top the list. Very important though to note that while Todd shows a break even ROI, Chad does not beat the takeout.
Wesley Ward, obviously is always a must use with young horses.
Bill Mott sticks out as one who appears to be more of an all or nothing type. He has a solid win percentage, especially relative to others, but I find it intriguing that his win percentage does not correlate as closely to his in the money percentage as some of the other trainers do.
Toward the bottom of the list, Mike Maker also sticks out. He only has one winner from 16 starters, but hits the board closer to half the time.

COURSE	TRAINER	PAYOUT	EXPECTED_WINS	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	MOUNTS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Inner Turf	Mark Casse	30.65	0.14	4	3	3	20	0.2	0.5	1.45	1.53
Inner Turf	Todd Pletcher	15.8	0.19	4	1	3	13	0.31	0.62	1.6	1.22
Inner Turf	Chad Brown	6.75	0.28	3	5	4	20	0.15	0.6	0.53	0.34
Inner Turf	William Mott	12.6	0.08	1	5	0	21	0.05	0.29	0.62	0.6
Inner Turf	D. Lukas	0	0.06	0	1	2	10	0	0.3	0	0

Not a ton to note here. Not many races are run for 2 year olds on the inner. It does seem that if there is a place to try to beat Chad, it may be here.

COURSE	TRAINER	PAYOUT	EXPECTED_WINS	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	MOUNTS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Dirt	Todd Pletcher	121.3	0.21	33	20	23	139	0.24	0.55	1.12	0.87
Dirt	Steven Asmussen	81.7	0.17	15	11	16	87	0.17	0.48	1	0.94
Dirt	Chad Brown	43.7	0.25	13	16	11	62	0.21	0.65	0.84	0.7
Dirt	Jeremiah Englehart	42.4	0.13	9	5	3	39	0.23	0.44	1.78	1.09
Dirt	Rudy Rodriguez	43.2	0.14	8	8	16	71	0.11	0.45	0.82	0.61
Dirt	Gary Contessa	90	0.08	7	7	7	48	0.15	0.44	1.79	1.88
Dirt	Kiaran McLaughlin	29.25	0.17	7	4	3	32	0.22	0.44	1.27	0.91
Dirt	Kenneth McPeek	75.8	0.09	6	4	3	27	0.22	0.48	2.41	2.81
Dirt	Mark Casse	25.75	0.17	6	9	5	49	0.12	0.41	0.71	0.53
Dirt	D. Lukas	35.6	0.07	5	6	2	55	0.09	0.24	1.38	0.65
Dirt	Linda Rice	31.15	0.15	5	5	2	20	0.25	0.6	1.72	1.56
Dirt	Ralph Nicks	32.9	0.12	4	2	0	10	0.4	0.6	3.29	3.29
Dirt	George Weaver	49.95	0.13	3	3	0	24	0.12	0.25	0.93	2.08
Dirt	Joe Sharp	14.25	0.13	3	0	0	13	0.23	0.23	1.72	1.1
Dirt	William Mott	20.85	0.12	3	5	6	43	0.07	0.33	0.59	0.48
Dirt	Ian Wilkes	8.7	0.09	2	3	1	15	0.13	0.4	1.48	0.58
Dirt	Eddie Kenneally	7.65	0.18	2	1	1	12	0.17	0.33	0.93	0.64
Dirt	Dominick Schettino	13.15	0.09	2	4	5	28	0.07	0.39	0.75	0.47
Dirt	Anthony Dutrow	6.25	0.15	2	3	2	13	0.15	0.54	1.03	0.48
Dirt	Christophe Clement	12.35	0.12	2	4	2	18	0.11	0.44	0.95	0.69
Dirt	Charlton Baker	13.6	0.12	2	1	2	10	0.2	0.5	1.64	1.36
Dirt	Ron Moquett	14.1	0.09	2	0	1	19	0.11	0.16	1.22	0.74
Dirt	Thomas Morley	15.7	0.09	2	1	0	15	0.13	0.2	1.55	1.05
Dirt	Wesley Ward	10.95	0.14	2	5	2	30	0.07	0.3	0.46	0.36
Dirt	Michael Maker	15	0.08	2	1	1	19	0.11	0.21	1.34	0.79
Dirt	Dallas Stewart	13.2	0.07	1	1	1	17	0.06	0.18	0.88	0.78
Dirt	Claude McGaughey III	7.5	0.11	1	0	5	16	0.06	0.38	0.59	0.47
Dirt	Mark Hennig	3.85	0.1	1	3	4	22	0.05	0.36	0.47	0.18
Dirt	George Arnold, II	0	0.04	0	0	1	13	0	0.08	0	0
Dirt	Gary Sciacca	0	0.04	0	0	0	14	0	0	0	0
Dirt	Gary Gullo	0	0.13	0	1	1	10	0	0.2	0	0
Dirt	John Kimmel	0	0.07	0	0	1	19	0	0.05	0	0
Dirt	Jaime Mejia	0	0.02	0	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
Dirt	Brian Lynch	0	0.11	0	3	3	16	0	0.38	0	0
Dirt	Brad Cox	0	0.17	0	2	3	12	0	0.42	0	0
Dirt	Thomas Albertrani	0	0.06	0	5	5	30	0	0.33	0	0
Dirt	John Terranova II	0	0.11	0	1	2	11	0	0.27	0	0
Dirt	Nicholas Zito	0	0.05	0	0	3	30	0	0.1	0	0
Dirt	Michelle Nevin	0	0.06	0	3	2	21	0	0.24	0	0

Notes for the dirt races:

Chad Brown, Linda Rice, and Ralph Nicks all hit the board at over 60%, which is probably worth noting.
Ken McPeek has a massive ROI, even with 27 runners. That’s pretty impressive. The public expects him to win less than 10% of the time, while he has won at around 22%. Potentially some value in this one.
There are a solid contingent of 0-fers at the bottom of the pack, some with upwards of 20 mounts. Most notably is probably Brad Cox who was expected to win 17% of the time, but has never won.