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Saratoga: Summer 2019 meet data overview (running style)

by john_camardoJuly 11, 20196 min read

PHOTO CREDIT: NYRA

Running style by course and distance

I learned something new: Saratoga doesn’t run 8 furlong races.

With that fun fact out of the way, time to talk running style. I am not going to do a chart by chart analysis of this, as I think it can serve as a reference for the forty race days of Saratoga. I will however, list a few major takeaways that I had in inspecting the data.

Takeaways:

Early positioning (sorry for the obvious) on the dirt is extremely important. You want horses that are projected to be on the front end at the first point of call especially in shorter distance races. And if you play vertical wagers, runners that make it to the lead, or are near the lead on the dirt are typically in the money over half of the time.
Longer distances on dirt, (perhaps counter-intuitively) appear to be even more favorable to front runners, or leaders than some shorter distance races. This may result from tactics in the races which potentially turn the races into gallops for 3 quarters of the race, and then sprints for the last quarter or so.
Both turf courses play similarly with respect to front runners and off the pace types. It’s striking to note the difference in dirt versus turf courses spelled out with data.
Generally if you are able to find the horse that ends up on the lead, from a win bet perspective, you would end up with a flat bet profit. Now, that is obviously easier said than done, especially given the number of factors involved in predicting the runner that will be on the lead, but something worth noting nonetheless.

To clarify quickly, the early_style_two column describes where the runner was at the first point of call for the specified course and distance. This analysis does not take into account projected running style, but the actual positioning of horses during the race. Hopefully, this can help in translating your race design, whether you use TimeformUS pace projector, or Stats, or your own algorithm, into picks and plays throughout the meet.

So without further discussion, here are the stats for Saratoga races run since 2015.

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Dirt	5	1: lead	0.2	1	4.3	1	0	0	1	1	5.12	4.3
Dirt	5	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.26	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dirt	5	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.15	2	0	0	1	0	0	0.5	0	0
Dirt	5	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.07	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.5	0	0
Dirt	5	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.04	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Dirt	5.5	1: lead	0.2	80	145.75	35	11	15	0.44	0.76	2.19	1.82
Dirt	5.5	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.18	38	37.05	8	4	10	0.21	0.58	1.14	0.98
Dirt	5.5	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.15	108	102	18	20	14	0.17	0.48	1.11	0.94
Dirt	5.5	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.13	69	37.5	7	14	9	0.1	0.43	0.79	0.54
Dirt	5.5	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.14	55	25	4	2	7	0.07	0.24	0.52	0.45
Dirt	5.5	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.11	52	17.5	3	7	5	0.06	0.29	0.51	0.34
Dirt	5.5	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.1	163	9.85	2	19	13	0.01	0.21	0.13	0.06
Dirt	5.5	8: more than 10	0.06	48	23.3	1	2	5	0.02	0.17	0.33	0.49

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Dirt	6	1: lead	0.19	248	474.2	79	28	52	0.32	0.64	1.69	1.91
Dirt	6	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.15	190	204.4	35	20	29	0.18	0.44	1.21	1.08
Dirt	6	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.15	404	296.5	59	53	68	0.15	0.45	0.95	0.73
Dirt	6	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.14	238	145.85	25	44	23	0.11	0.39	0.75	0.61
Dirt	6	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.12	184	118.65	12	26	23	0.07	0.33	0.54	0.64
Dirt	6	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.1	157	37.5	9	19	14	0.06	0.27	0.59	0.24
Dirt	6	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.09	414	199.3	28	46	37	0.07	0.27	0.74	0.48
Dirt	6	8: more than 10	0.06	81	0	0	10	2	0	0.15	0	0

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Dirt	6.5	1: lead	0.19	149	230.6	46	10	31	0.31	0.58	1.61	1.55
Dirt	6.5	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.16	109	65.95	17	17	15	0.16	0.45	0.95	0.61
Dirt	6.5	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.16	247	191.8	35	29	43	0.14	0.43	0.89	0.78
Dirt	6.5	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.14	140	108.65	16	26	20	0.11	0.44	0.79	0.78
Dirt	6.5	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.13	113	66.2	11	20	9	0.1	0.35	0.75	0.59
Dirt	6.5	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.1	77	125.5	4	10	7	0.05	0.27	0.5	1.63
Dirt	6.5	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.09	220	102.05	17	32	19	0.08	0.31	0.88	0.46
Dirt	6.5	8: more than 10	0.07	55	26.4	2	4	4	0.04	0.18	0.52	0.48

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Dirt	7	1: lead	0.16	183	330.2	53	28	28	0.29	0.6	1.77	1.8
Dirt	7	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.16	123	166.65	21	27	27	0.17	0.61	1.08	1.35
Dirt	7	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.16	346	318.05	54	50	52	0.16	0.45	1	0.92
Dirt	7	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.13	201	102.5	17	21	24	0.08	0.31	0.64	0.51
Dirt	7	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.13	147	198.9	21	13	18	0.14	0.35	1.13	1.35
Dirt	7	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.11	112	26.25	4	9	8	0.04	0.19	0.33	0.23
Dirt	7	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.09	268	91.6	12	31	22	0.04	0.24	0.5	0.34
Dirt	7	8: more than 10	0.05	41	0	0	2	1	0	0.07	0	0

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Dirt	9	1: lead	0.19	208	260.4	53	35	37	0.25	0.6	1.34	1.25
Dirt	9	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.19	65	86.95	19	5	12	0.29	0.55	1.54	1.34
Dirt	9	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.19	325	235.85	59	55	62	0.18	0.54	0.97	0.73
Dirt	9	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.15	190	141.95	24	28	26	0.13	0.41	0.83	0.75
Dirt	9	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.14	151	55.6	12	26	23	0.08	0.4	0.57	0.37
Dirt	9	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.15	114	52.45	10	16	20	0.09	0.4	0.6	0.46
Dirt	9	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.11	239	155.6	25	33	24	0.1	0.34	0.93	0.65
Dirt	9	8: more than 10	0.09	41	15.4	4	8	2	0.1	0.34	1.05	0.38

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Dirt	10	1: lead	0.17	9	31.65	4	0	3	0.44	0.78	2.55	3.52
Dirt	10	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.25	4	9.3	2	0	1	0.5	0.75	2.03	2.32
Dirt	10	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.1	18	0	0	4	1	0	0.28	0	0
Dirt	10	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.15	14	22.3	2	4	2	0.14	0.57	0.97	1.59
Dirt	10	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.07	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dirt	10	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.04	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dirt	10	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.08	14	0	0	1	2	0	0.21	0	0
Dirt	10	8: more than 10	0.08	11	10	1	0	0	0.09	0.09	1.08	0.91

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Dirt	14	1: lead	0.14	4	0	0	0	2	0	0.5	0	0
Dirt	14	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.04	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0
Dirt	14	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.23	11	7.45	3	1	2	0.27	0.55	1.16	0.68
Dirt	14	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.14	2	6.3	1	1	0	0.5	1	3.6	3.15
Dirt	14	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.11	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dirt	14	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.03	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0
Dirt	14	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.11	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Inner Turf	8	1: lead	0.11	137	446.4	42	18	11	0.31	0.52	2.77	3.26
Inner Turf	8	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.07	27	12.8	1	3	6	0.04	0.37	0.52	0.47
Inner Turf	8	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.12	190	213.55	29	23	27	0.15	0.42	1.27	1.12
Inner Turf	8	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.12	138	67.65	10	19	10	0.07	0.28	0.58	0.49
Inner Turf	8	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.12	136	53.15	9	20	21	0.07	0.37	0.55	0.39
Inner Turf	8	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.14	121	104.9	17	8	15	0.14	0.33	1	0.87
Inner Turf	8	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.1	386	139.95	23	38	39	0.06	0.26	0.58	0.36
Inner Turf	8	8: more than 10	0.07	88	3.9	1	4	4	0.01	0.1	0.15	0.04

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Inner Turf	8.5	1: lead	0.11	126	259.35	33	11	14	0.26	0.46	2.41	2.06
Inner Turf	8.5	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.11	36	26.8	3	4	2	0.08	0.25	0.76	0.74
Inner Turf	8.5	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.12	160	115.1	17	20	20	0.11	0.36	0.91	0.72
Inner Turf	8.5	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.13	134	123.45	24	16	14	0.18	0.4	1.37	0.92
Inner Turf	8.5	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.13	124	94	14	14	19	0.11	0.38	0.88	0.76
Inner Turf	8.5	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.1	121	28.25	6	14	14	0.05	0.28	0.49	0.23
Inner Turf	8.5	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.1	388	159.85	24	37	40	0.06	0.26	0.65	0.41
Inner Turf	8.5	8: more than 10	0.08	96	34	3	7	2	0.03	0.12	0.4	0.35

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Inner Turf	9	1: lead	0.13	15	8.45	2	1	1	0.13	0.27	1.06	0.56
Inner Turf	9	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.17	8	1.35	1	2	0	0.12	0.38	0.74	0.17
Inner Turf	9	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.13	24	13.65	3	4	2	0.12	0.38	0.99	0.57
Inner Turf	9	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.11	13	63	3	1	2	0.23	0.46	2.01	4.85
Inner Turf	9	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.13	12	9.75	2	0	3	0.17	0.42	1.33	0.81
Inner Turf	9	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.16	13	0	0	1	1	0	0.15	0	0
Inner Turf	9	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.08	33	40.1	3	4	6	0.09	0.39	1.13	1.22
Inner Turf	9	8: more than 10	0.08	14	2.5	1	2	0	0.07	0.21	0.85	0.18

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Inner Turf	11	1: lead	0.12	38	39.65	4	4	12	0.11	0.53	0.91	1.04
Inner Turf	11	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.15	9	0	0	0	1	0	0.11	0	0
Inner Turf	11	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.14	48	27.65	5	4	3	0.1	0.25	0.74	0.58
Inner Turf	11	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.15	33	35.05	8	4	4	0.24	0.48	1.59	1.06
Inner Turf	11	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.14	32	6.4	3	7	5	0.09	0.47	0.69	0.2
Inner Turf	11	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.12	31	16.3	2	4	4	0.06	0.32	0.54	0.53
Inner Turf	11	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.13	86	89.7	16	13	6	0.19	0.41	1.45	1.04
Inner Turf	11	8: more than 10	0.1	24	4.1	1	2	2	0.04	0.21	0.43	0.17

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Inner Turf	12	1: lead	0.09	14	22.3	2	3	0	0.14	0.36	1.55	1.59
Inner Turf	12	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.15	4	0	0	1	0	0	0.25	0	0
Inner Turf	12	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.16	19	12.5	2	1	2	0.11	0.26	0.64	0.66
Inner Turf	12	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.15	8	0	0	1	2	0	0.38	0	0
Inner Turf	12	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.18	11	24.2	4	1	2	0.36	0.64	2	2.2
Inner Turf	12	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.1	15	13.5	2	2	2	0.13	0.4	1.35	0.9
Inner Turf	12	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.13	32	16.65	4	4	6	0.12	0.44	0.96	0.52
Inner Turf	12	8: more than 10	0.14	2	0	0	1	0	0	0.5	0	0

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Turf	5.5	1: lead	0.15	225	335.55	58	26	27	0.26	0.49	1.67	1.49
Turf	5.5	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.14	133	93.75	16	15	28	0.12	0.44	0.86	0.7
Turf	5.5	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.14	371	311.8	51	35	50	0.14	0.37	0.99	0.84
Turf	5.5	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.12	249	225.35	32	36	28	0.13	0.39	1.06	0.91
Turf	5.5	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.12	221	192.6	20	38	25	0.09	0.38	0.76	0.87
Turf	5.5	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.11	174	89.05	14	21	16	0.08	0.29	0.74	0.51
Turf	5.5	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.09	484	241.05	30	46	48	0.06	0.26	0.71	0.5
Turf	5.5	8: more than 10	0.06	87	13	2	6	1	0.02	0.1	0.41	0.15

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Turf	8.5	1: lead	0.12	115	99.85	12	17	12	0.1	0.36	0.89	0.87
Turf	8.5	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.09	25	25.4	2	3	2	0.08	0.28	0.85	1.02
Turf	8.5	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.12	167	123.75	24	21	20	0.14	0.39	1.18	0.74
Turf	8.5	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.13	114	80.4	14	9	13	0.12	0.32	0.98	0.71
Turf	8.5	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.11	114	103.9	10	13	19	0.09	0.37	0.76	0.91
Turf	8.5	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.11	110	39.45	8	14	16	0.07	0.35	0.64	0.36
Turf	8.5	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.11	333	248	40	36	28	0.12	0.31	1.12	0.74
Turf	8.5	8: more than 10	0.08	70	43.8	4	2	4	0.06	0.14	0.73	0.63

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Turf	9	1: lead	0.08	23	43.65	3	1	4	0.13	0.35	1.55	1.9
Turf	9	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.14	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Turf	9	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.11	26	7.95	2	3	4	0.08	0.35	0.72	0.31
Turf	9	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.11	25	8.05	3	3	1	0.12	0.28	1.08	0.32
Turf	9	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.12	22	29.35	4	3	3	0.18	0.45	1.56	1.33
Turf	9	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.15	24	10.6	4	5	1	0.17	0.42	1.11	0.44
Turf	9	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.13	56	35.15	6	7	10	0.11	0.41	0.82	0.63
Turf	9	8: more than 10	0.09	17	18.7	1	1	0	0.06	0.12	0.67	1.1

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Turf	9.5	1: lead	0.12	26	32	2	7	2	0.08	0.42	0.65	1.23
Turf	9.5	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.05	8	32	1	1	1	0.12	0.38	2.63	4
Turf	9.5	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.12	43	20.3	5	3	4	0.12	0.28	0.98	0.47
Turf	9.5	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.14	30	9.55	3	2	5	0.1	0.33	0.74	0.32
Turf	9.5	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.12	22	26.55	4	2	2	0.18	0.36	1.51	1.21
Turf	9.5	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.09	23	9	2	3	2	0.09	0.3	0.96	0.39
Turf	9.5	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.11	65	52.85	8	6	7	0.12	0.32	1.08	0.81
Turf	9.5	8: more than 10	0.09	6	0	0	1	2	0	0.5	0	0

COURSE	RACE_FURLONGS_x	early_style_two	EXPECTED_WINS	MOUNTS	PAYOUT	WINS	PLACES	SHOWS	WIN_PCT	ITM_PCT	IMPACT_VALUE	ROI
Turf	13	1: lead	0.21	4	3.3	1	0	1	0.25	0.5	1.19	0.82
Turf	13	2: 0 to 1 length off	0.08	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Turf	13	3: 1 to 2 lengths off	0.03	8	0	0	1	0	0	0.12	0	0
Turf	13	4: 2 to 3 lengths off	0.24	3	1.7	1	1	0	0.33	0.67	1.41	0.57
Turf	13	5: 3 to 4 lengths off	0.12	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0
Turf	13	6: 4 to 5 lengths off	0.19	3	0	0	0	2	0	0.67	0	0
Turf	13	7: 5 to 10 lengths off	0.12	8	4.25	1	1	0	0.12	0.25	1.03	0.53
Turf	13	8: more than 10	0.19	2	5.3	1	0	0	0.5	0.5	2.61	2.65