“The listeners program the show with a series of questions about handicapping, betting, and contests for PTF and JK. Also, the guys look back quickly at last weekend’s Derby preps and talk about an excellent place to eat in Hot Springs (DeLuca’s).”
Long day at the office for me today, brainstorming about new ideas for articles and sponsorships, plus spending 2.5 hours on the phone booking my next England trip — a long, dull tale about trying to travel as a family with a six-year-old human when each parent is taking her one way.
And that’s my excuse for not writing more now. But do check out John Camardo’s excellent piece on the Santa Anita downhill and keep coming back for more cool handicapping and racing content.
May You Win All Your Photos,
Prefer to read it? See below.
***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains hilarious errors and inaccuracies. ***
Hello, and welcome to the, in the money players podcast. I’m your host, Peter Thomas four, and a towel back with you for show number 18. We are recording this on Thursday night later than I wanted to. It is. February 21st. I’m in the Brooklyn bunker for this as live podcast, a little bit different than these produced shows we’ve been doing.
We’re kind of kicking it old school today. We’re going to go over some listener questions and look into some handicapping for races on Saturday. And I’m joined by the star of Fox sports, horse racing coverage. He is of course the people’s champion, Jonathan kitchen. What’s up my man PTF I’m on my way back to hot Springs.
This weekend, I’ve been informed that Frank Mir Matti, the King of, of pizza told me there’s a place there called Duluth. Yeah. Tony DeLuca. Yeah, it’s good. I just, I haven’t done it yet. I tried to go the other day, their hours are like, You know, like four to nine or four to 10 Thursday, Friday, and then Saturday from like 11 to nine or it’s just like crazy.
So I’m going to do, I’m going to hit it this time. I missed it last time. You gotta be careful because it gets so crazy. That you can, like they can run out of pizza or you can’t get in. I was warned about it and ended up like totally overcompensating getting there when they opened. And we had a great experience and Tony himself was there, Brooklyn guy and took good care of parent, gave her some gelato and came and sat with us for a while and talked about all things, Brooklyn and pizza.
And I did get the recommendation from Frank. So it’s, uh, I told me, yeah. You told me the other night, he said, listen, he goes, this is going to sound crazy, but that’s what you gotta do. Walk in there, walk straight into the kitchen and say, the fat man sent me and said, just scream at the top of your lungs.
And, uh, he actually had a little bit of an exp, an expletive in there as well, but. And he, he told me to do that. And I was like, there’s no way I can do that. This is like Oaklawn. It it’s like it’s Arkansas. I’m not walking in anywhere. Safety first JK safety first. So Tony’s an excellent dude. And you should definitely introduce yourself and try to get there, but when it’s not completely crazy, so he might be able to spend a.
A minute with you, but I think that’s a good tip. I don’t have a lot of dining tips in the area because I’m always there like with full family. So it’s not like I can go to the famous nightspots and everything in, uh, in and around hot Springs, but I do project to be going back and I may be going back solo this year.
I may be looking to do a cameo appearance at Marshall Graham’s class. Uh, they racetrack economics class at Rhodes college. And then. Hopefully a piggyback ride down there for Arkansas Derby day. We shall see any chance you’ll be back for the Arkansas Derby this year. Maybe we’ll try to do something crazy and do the double with Oaklawn on Saturday and Caitlin contest on Sunday.
I don’t know if you noticed the other day Marshall tweeted that he, uh, But he bought it. He bought a new horse with his NHC winnings, which is a little bit depressing. I was very proud of him for obvious reasons. Uh, you know, a horse player at his level. And also an owner at his level is, is someone that this industry should listen to.
But I was disappointed because I was going to tell him, Hey, use your NHC money. To book the private jet from hot Springs to chemo so that we can play in the Keelan contest on Sunday, the day after the Arkansas Derby. Uh, now that the money’s been spent on a horse, I’m a little bit concerned. It’s not going to happen.
We’re going to have to throw some money in a hat and see what happens. Speaking of horse ownership, JK, did you know that our podcast has its second official sponsor? I I’ve heard, I think. Is it official? The paperwork is signed black type thoroughbreds coming on board. And let me tell you, I’m super excited to get Jake Ballis of black type on here to talk about his operation and all I’ll say for now, we’ll refine this pitch over time, but all we’ll say for now is.
Thank you to Jake and black tie for coming on board. And I can’t imagine someone, I would trust more to be shepherding a race horse partnership than Jake. And it’s going to be so much fun working with them this year. So if you’re thinking about getting involved in the ownership business, don’t jump just yet.
Let’s see what’s going on with black type. We’re going to refine the pitch and the message for future sponsored episodes of this show by black tie. But I, for 1:00 AM super excited about it. JK. Um, I’m, I’m super excited about it as well. I’m super excited about black type thoroughbreds, uh, uncle Mo uh, cult is going to be running, I think the weekend of, uh, of the, uh, of the founder of youth.
So I think that Sunday, the horses is supposed to be in for George Weaver. The horse’s name is. Uh, majestic. So looking forward to seeing that one, an exciting one that Jake’s been excited about for a long time. And so we’ll, hopefully he’ll get the job done first out. He’s had plenty of success in his brief time in the business and is looking to expand the operation.
One thing I’ll say, and we know this, uh, from our experience with our friends at 10 strike, having the right partners is really everything when you’re getting involved in being in the right hands. And I feel like we’re fortunate to know a lot of the right. People in this regard now, before we leave the topic of Oakland, are you going back just for fun or are you on TV again this weekend?
No, it’s, it’s, it’s more fun this time than, than last time. Last time was kind of in and out. I’m going to actually spend the entire weekend there. Um, but no, I’ll be on. I’ll be on, on Saturday. I’ll be on Fox on Saturday. I got the rundown actually emailed to me and I will tell you who we are going to be watching.
We’re going to do Oaklawn aqueduct, Gulf stream and Santa Anita. Uh, it’s a two and a half hour show. Uh, Greg Wolf, Gary Stevens and Paula Duka will be in the studio. Michelle, you will be at San Anita. I’ll be at Oaklawn with Nancy and Acacia and Bob Neumeyer. We’ll be down at Gulf stream. So it should be a lot of fun.
Very cool. And how was your experience last weekend? You seemed a little bit more comfortable this time around and you and Lafayette seemed to get along famously judging by the social media posts. Yeah, we had a great time. Yeah, no Laffite is a, is an absolute professional. It was, it was fun to work with him and, and, um, you know, he kind of eased my, you know, not that I’m overly nervous, but ease my nervousness to a certain extent, because we talked about exactly what we were going to talk about prior to the race.
Um, and then we also, uh, did a thing which was really helpful where we submitted, um, Laffite did, was his idea to submit. The horses we wanted to talk about in the post parade to the control room so that they put those horses in that order. So it’s like we already knew which horses were going to come up in the post parade that we were going to talk about.
So that was awesome as well. So, uh, it was a lot of fun and, and, you know, just for me, just kind of going through at once and understanding, you know, what’s going to be expected and how it’s going to go down. That made a huge difference too. So I’m looking forward to hopping on it. You’re saying that you improved in your second, start off the layoff.
Improved. I didn’t give a 20 to one shot. I did give the 79 to one that ran third. Um, and he wasn’t my top choice. He was, uh, he was an outside play, but you know, I nailed the winner and gave the 79 one shot that ran third. I think that’s fair. Is that, I mean, come on. That’s great stuff. Good work by you on that one.
Now, what was the tweet you sent me? We’re going to get into some Twitter questions here and we’ll start with one that you sent to me. I have been, uh, holding off in completely shaming you with the Yan nose and the edited broadcast though. I couldn’t resist the other day. I did have to throw one. Yeah, no, on the end, as a little Easter egg, have you discovered some trick, you don’t think I’m going to be able to shame you with the pianos anymore?
So I, I, at least I understand why it’s happening and what, what the purpose is and what I can explain it. And this was, this was for some help for some friends in hot Springs. The yeah. Is yes. I hear your question. No, to the question you’re asking. I don’t think it’s that. I’m the guy who’s plucked out a dozen of them since the new show started.
And it’s just a verbal tick. It’s not, maybe that’s what’s happening in your brain sometimes, but then there’s other times where you just blurt it out. I’m sorry. Oh, well, we’ll see. Hopefully they’ll be gone for good. You’ll save me a lot of editing time. I don’t know if I’ve yeah. Note on TV though. I haven’t heard you.
I would have definitely made fun of you if I heard it on TV. I think in the, when the lights are on, you’re more conscious, honestly, it’s gone way, way down. There’s only been, I said a dozen it’s probably only been half a dozen, so that’s a good thing. All right, let’s talk a little bit about what’s going on on the, in the money podcast website.
We’ve had a couple of fun contributions from friends and associates over the last couple of weeks. Did you check out the trip notes that my old friend, Benny South street put up there for the Oklahoma on Saturday, Benny South street texted me and said, Something about, Hey, have you seen Vinnie South Street’s notes?
In other words, you haven’t seen them yet name, which you were not aware of. And we will not be sharing on this show, but this associate of ours sent you a note saying, have you seen Bettys as if he didn’t know who he was slash? Wasn’t him? Yeah. He said, man, he goes, I don’t know, he’s someone doing trip notes when he’s on fire.
And I decided to text you, Hey Pete who’s Binny’s house street. And then you told me, and I sent you a screenshot of the person trying to dig for cough of it. Well, Benny, I mean, it’s a funny story, how the whole thing started and people won’t believe it, but you know what? I’m just going to lay it out there and you can believe it, or you can’t believe it, but this was a guy, a guy I knew.
From the paddock bar in Saratoga years ago, and one night out on the town at the spa, he had a few too many and ended up as one. Occasionally does getting in a little bit of trouble with the FAS. He was in a huge fight with his girlfriend at the time. Anyway, he ends up using his one phone call on me and I had to go.
And bail him out. And as these things happening, I don’t know, you went on a losing run cash flow problems, whatever he had never paid me back. And then when he heard me putting out the call that I was looking for content, sky’s a, he’s a very successful player and a sharp guy. And he suggested a little bit of barter where instead of the money owed.
He would contribute a few pieces for the, in the money podcast. I thought it was a fair trade and I thought the piece was off to a nice start. And I’m very curious to see what he comes up with. Next. I thought the information was really good, a little bit of a different way of looking at the world. I didn’t get a chance to look at it, but I do know the, uh, the handicapping, uh, prowess of, of, of Benny.
And I do know that that I’m sure the T uh, he did a great job. Do you know where the name comes from? No, but it’s a great name. It is a good name. It’s a Damon Runyon character. And I appreciated the fact that several people tweeted back Damon Runyon references. So I, I thought it was, uh, an appropriate pseudonym and somebody I’m glad to have on the team.
Now, speaking of people I’m glad to have on the team, did you have a chance to check out the piece that I put up there today by I think he wanted me to refer to him as degenerate data nerd or something like that. John Kamado, young guy. Uh, very good with the data, doing a in-depth piece about what really wins races on the downhill at Santa Anita.
I did not have a chance to read it. I was, I’ve been driving since Senate feels like, remember I told you I can tweet back. I just can’t read and drive. I can tweak and drive just as well. Cause I don’t want to go into the piece too much because I don’t want to give it all the way I want people to go to in the money podcast.com and check it out.
But there’s a lot of interesting conclusions in there about posts, about running style, jockeys and trainers. I think most horse players will learn something and there’s definitely some signal in those numbers. And I definitely want people to check it out, feel free to leave comments, send tweets to John.
I want to encourage him to do more. He’s got a lot of great ideas about using data to explore different courses and distances at different racetracks, to look at other. Different old songs that we hear all the time in handicappers, in handicapping circles about firsters having trouble breaking from the rail.
We want to actually take a look at some of these things that people always say, and really look at the data and see what information is in there. And he’s also interested in doing some stuff related to. The handle and handicapping contest, which was an idea he had. I thought it was very cool to try to quantify the effect of, you know, exactly what is gained when a handicapping contest is on.
You can look forward to all this stuff in the coming weeks and months, but. Give the guy, some encouragement he’s starting out. And I think he’s doing some cool stuff and heck it, I’ll put out a call. If people out there have ideas for articles, we’re not going to publish just anything. But if you’ve got an idea, a unique angle, something you want to bring, I really want the blog in the money podcast.com to become a place that you can count on to go for.
Interesting takes on handicapping, whether it’s analysis of specific races looks back at races, more data driven pieces. Things about bedding strategy. I’ve got Tommy masses in line. I’m gonna, uh, I’m not sure he’s going to write her. I’ll write it with him, but yeah, we’re going to do a piece about betting strategy coming up.
Sean Borman had a piece about figure making. He wanted to contribute. I really want this to be where you get to read some of the best handicap and content out there and JK feel free. If you have any ideas again, whether you write them yourself or. You will bother your co-writer pal me to help out. I would love to have see you in print a little bit.
You haven’t done too much of that in your career yet. Ooh. Yeah, I know. I hate writing lists. It’s like, uh, you know, email to a girlfriend or something. Well, you’re not publishing, we’re not publishing any of that. It’s not that kind of site. Yeah. You know, here’s the thing, it’s actually kind of a good transition to something that we did today, which is.
We, we got a little tour around, uh, stats, race lends a little bit, and here’s a couple of things in there. I’m looking forward to kind of diving into and playing around with, uh, you know, I’ve I’ve and this is not a, uh, this has been a thing for a while. I feel like I’ve kind of gotten away from formulator.
Uh, with the, with the, with all this, the trainer stats, because I just feel like they’re baked into the price. Now. I also feel like they can sometimes be misleading because there’s so many different circumstances involved, but there are some things on stats. Raceland I think you can kind of pull out and really dig deep into some, to some like actual scenarios and, and really kind of, uh, come up with some good.
Um, you know, good, good rules when pulling that data to try to find out some answers to some questions I’m looking forward to playing with that. And there could be something that comes from that. That’s a very good idea. And I have to say, I was certainly taken talking to Matt and of course, Scott Coles about how they use the product at the NHC to do really well.
Rumor has it. I may be involved with those cats in some form doing some sort of webinar talking about that product. They’re certainly on the list of people I need to be bothering when it comes to sponsorships for this. Podcasts that’s for sure. But of course, one great thing about the show and being independent and right now having no non-exclusive sponsor partnerships, we can just talk about the wider world of handicapping and that JK actually leads in.
Beautifully to the first ask ITM question I have queued up. And the question is, in our opinion, what are the strengths and weaknesses of buyer figures compared to bris speed figures? Do you have any suggestions for comparing the two figures for a given race? Well, um, so here’s the thing, and this is actually been a question that’s come up a few times.
I’ve had a lot of friends, uh, texts over the last couple of weekends. I think there was an issue at, at fairgrounds and that. At Gulf stream over the last few weeks were like same distance, four races apart, faster times slower figure like that whole thing. That’s one of the things that, uh, Sean Borman wants to write about.
We’re going to have a piece on the blog about that very issue. And, and so, uh, w w w. I guess when comparing those two things Brisen buyer, here’s what I can kind of tell you, based on business website, they’ll pretty much tell you that, that, uh, there, they do use a variant and, and their projection method is more computerized rather than, uh, the subjective opinion of a handicapper.
That’s actually a quote from there, from their situation w what buyer does differently. And I like, and don’t like, and that’s something that our friend Nick tomorrow who who’s on the buyer team can talk about as well. Is there is some subject subjectivity involved. But it’s all science-based. And what I mean by that is, is, is, is, and some people don’t like this, but I do.
But if the fourth place horse has been running seventies in the final time and where you’re at, makes that horse run a 95 for the first time in his life. And there’s no real reason why that happened. The figure’s too high. It has to be adjusted. And often that’s what happens. It’s not so much that the, the, the winning horse couldn’t run.
The number that he ran, it’s that the second, fourth and eighth place horses did not all just run their lifetime best, uh, for, uh, you know, a four year old race where they’re not really gonna have that natural improvement, so on and so forth. So when it comes to comparing them, I started on Brezhnev. I like nets product.
There’s a lot of things in it that are great. I think some of like the prime power rankings, the pace figures, um, uh, the class ratings, those are all things that I kind of cut my teeth with. Um, I just kinda got away from the figure and I’ve even gotten away from buyer to a certain extent. And I, I re rely the most on time form us is figure.
I, I just, I, you know, I like the pace infused portion of that. And so, um, I just think it’s important to always be looking at two figures. You just got to find the ones that work best for you. I think that’s fair. Another thing, just to underline what you said about bris, I do like their way of looking at the world in terms of EAP LP and the final figure.
I sometimes think that can tell a better story and explain why a final figure might seem out of whack. And it’s just a way I like looking at races. In fact, I’m talking out of school here completely cause no deal finalized, but I’ve been talking to Jim Mulvihill about potentially contributing to the Churchill slash bris, um, program.
That’s essentially the, what has replaced the racing format, some Churchill tracks. And one of the things I want to write about potentially for them is how I do like to use. And what I think is really useful about the brisk figures and getting into concepts like race shapes that you can see so easily when you’re looking at those pace numbers and comparing them to the pars.
There’s a lot of stuff in there that I do like a lot. Now I’m a buyer is the number that I, if I had one number to look at buyer would be the number, but in this world where. We’re looking at multiple things. I do think both have a definite role. And in truth, that way of looking at the world that comes from the bris universe, I find very appealing.
Now. I’m not sure if this was the question or not, but I have some equations to share. If you’re this questioner was talking about converting brisk to buyer and vice versa. If you’re not into this stuff, you might just want to hit that little 15 second thing. And I’ll probably wrap it right in about 15 and you won’t have to listen to the equations, but for those who are interested, and I hope the guy who gave me these doesn’t mind me handing them out, but bris equals 38.
Plus 0.6 times the buyer. That’s the number. That’s the equation I came up with to turn a bris into buyer. And then the other way buyer equals 1.4 times bris figure minus 43. So those are the equations. If you want to try to put them on the same scale, the way we often do with time for them and buyer, which is much simpler, we just typically subtract 20 from the time form that gets you very much in the ballpark.
Anything else on this JK before we move on to the next ask ITM question? No, I just think the important part to keep in mind with your figure, whatever figure it is is what level of projection. And what are they doing? Whether they’re projecting the number down or up, or, or, or whatever it might be. That’s the thing that you need to try to understand about your figure so that you can then use that to, to come up with a decision about what it is you’re looking at.
All right. Let’s move on to a question about Benny’s trip notes, actually. This one’s for each of us. JK, what are your favorite bet back trip, note angles and or most memorable trip bet backs. Ooh. Okay. So my favorite, I think my favorite trip note bet back is the, is the like four wide. Speed and fade for wide speed and fade or against the bias, speed and fade.
And you don’t necessarily have to like look at the tape to see it, but you, you do in some, in some point it’s not really like, uh, you know, it’s not gonna be described using verbs and words, nouns and things like that. But yeah. It, you know, you still, those are the trips that I love to bet back is the speed and fade from either an outside, you know, wide post four wide or like on a dead rail or whatever.
Those are my favorite, favorite bed backs, definitely horses who are racing on the wrong part of the track or racing on the right part of the track to bet against definitely horses that were either. Aided by the flow or hurt by the flow. And, you know, I’m a big believer in the racing flow.com numbers they can upload into formulator, or you can look at them independently and they give you a sense of if races were run to suit front runners.
Or suit closers and you can upgrade and downgrade accordingly. But my number one favorite of all time, and I still think it works. I still think there’s equity in this angle. Yeah. And I don’t know why the public hasn’t figured it out even more, but it’s the old Andy buyer. Move into a hot pace. I feel like the public sees these horses who make moves into contention, or very often even to the top.
And then the race collapses. In other words, a horse who came from behind them ends up winning. And their running line looks kind of ugly. It looks like they faded, it looks like they lack punch their late paste figure. Isn’t going to be super strong, but very often it’s as simple as they did the dirty work, they made the move to break the race apart.
And the next time they’ll be in a situation to distribute their energy more evenly and run better. And I swear those are that my absolute favorite trip angles. Um, you got another one? J K yeah. The, the other one I’ll say that I like, and it’s simple when we talk about it all the time is a last, in a slow pace, closing into a slow pace.
Uh, especially mostly on the turf. I think that matters the most. Uh, but when you have a, you know, a race where they go 50 and they have to go 50, they can go 48 or even 47. But if the race stays, you know, one, two, three at the first call one, two, three at the second call and it finishes one, two, three, and you are last in that pace.
Those are the types of horses I like to play back when it comes to turf. There’s so many, I mean, we could really, as we talk about this, do a whole show, just losing ground on turf races, especially those where the inside seems particularly good or meaningful. I mean, that can be your excuse right there. As close as the finishes are in those races.
If you’re going to lose a couple links around the first turn, and I will say this while we’re talking about trip angles, we like far more valuable to find subtle things related to pace and bias, or even being wide in the first turn of a turf race than the obvious stretch trouble. I feel like. All the air has gone out of the equity balloon of the obvious trouble.
Those are the horses we used to use this term a lot on the show and we’ve gotten away from it, but I don’t know why. Cause it, cause it’s a great one. And it’s a concept I believe in the ones that become the international bad trip horses, where everybody sees it and they, and they talk about it on TV and then they just get.
Hammered the next time in to the point where the love for the horse, just th it’s like it becomes hype and the love goes too far. And any equity you might’ve had goes right down the drain. Y’all want to pay attention to horses like that. It can still really help you, especially in later races when you’re telling me the story of that horse and why that race two back or three back may have been a bad race.
I want that note in there. But they’re not good ones to bet back the next time I want that horse to have more trouble, subtle trouble when he or she comes back. So then we can bet them down the line. Cause it’s very hard to find any equity off that horse. Who’s just crying out for a run and deep stretch and never gets through.
Do you agree with that? Well, I, I do agree. One of the things I will say about those horses, especially those stretch trouble horses, and they really kind of helped me, um, not kind of getting on a, on a bad bet back there is, is you have to watch the Gallop out and, and identify if they’re passing horses on the gal about, or if they’re getting passed or if other things, you know, take a good look at the Gallop out.
Because sometimes it will lead you to the information. That’s very important that it might’ve looked like he had a ton of horse and he was in trouble, but when he got free, he was empty. And so, uh, it it’s, it’s one of those things I take into consideration when I’m trying to decide how bad the trip really was.
I think that’s a good note and gala outs in general or something. I’m a big believer in. One caveat is just like, you can have a flow upgrade in a race, a horse who’s flying late and maybe it’s not as good as it looks because the way that race was run flattered, late runners, a race that the pace was fast and fell apart.
For example, that phenomenon can continue onto a Gallop out. You might see a monster Gallup out. I remember course, and they actually ended up being an okay horse. But you remember he was a Derby contender. Oh gosh. I’m going to date myself here. Seven, eight years ago, horse called Nero. Do you remember this horse with other, there was an H in there.
There’s actually, it’s funny you say that there’s actually like two Nero’s there’s there’s the one that, that the designs had was FIV asked me soon back in the day that ran into Derby. I think he ran second to mucho macho, man. And then there’s this little kind of new Niro who keeps getting me beat. This is the old Nero and he had one of these Gallup outs, I think in the Arkansas Derby.
We should look this up while we’re talking actually. And it was just this stunning Gallop out where the horse picked up lengths and links, but I still contend to this day, even though the horse did come back and run well, that part of the reason why that Gallop out looked so good was it was a pace that totally collapsed, but that can be an excellent clue, especially with young developing horses.
Sometimes it’s almost like they’re figuring it out and getting good at their job and taking leaps forward. It’s almost like it’s a valid part of the race. With an older horse who’s proven, and we know what he is. If he just sort of pulls himself up after the wire. Cause he knows his job is done. Like I’m not going to hold that against a horse, but with young developing horses, I do think you can find some signal looking at those Gallup outs and that’s something I don’t think computer players are doing.
And I don’t even think a lot of. Really seasoned sharp horse players are doing. Sometimes it’s even hard to see. I’ve never done this, but I had the idea a couple of years ago when I was sitting up in the press box, more than sitting down at the paddock bar at Saratoga of filming, uh, just on the iPhone, the gala bouts of all the two year old races, I thought you could probably find some interesting bet backs.
If you want an edge in this game. Those are the kinds of things you should be thinking about and trying to do going forward, even if I’m too lazy to do it myself, maybe somebody else will we’ll get a wild hair and decide to focus on that. I mean, that would be a heck of a column to write for the, in the money podcast blog.
If somebody was willing to share their analysis of gala bouts at Saratoga for two year old races. Would be, it would probably lead to some good tips, a good citizen, good stuff though. People might well want to just save it for themselves and I wouldn’t blame them, but if you want to get your name out there, like I said, we’re, we’re open, we’re in the idea business and we’re open.
So feel free to reach out. Production meeting inside, uh, inside the show we have do we, we have got to find it. And that video of when we stood in the gate, um, at San Anita, when they were going down the Hill, remember we stood in the gate when they broke from the gate. Cause this guy on Twitter is still trying to tell me that the one whole loads on the other side, and it’s like, it’s not, I want to send a video to it and say like, look at your buddy for that guys on.
I want some, not that I, not that I indulge in that type of thing, you know, 45 year old father of a six year old, but seriously, what the heck? I mean, If I’m wrong about that, you might as well tell me the sky is green. He’s just there’s no, there’s no basis times I watched Bobby’s kitten,
but are you kidding me? In fact, that’s what I’m going to answer with. I’m going to answer, I’m going to answer his thing with the clip from Bobby’s kitten. Cause they have the, they have the overhead. Um, yeah, there you go. Great. Now the point, I think w Tommy, it was making some point on there. I think his point was just that because of the dog leg, the inside becomes the outside.
I think he was just like busting my shoes for using the term inside or something. But obviously when I’m saying inside, I’m using it in the vernacular to me in the number one post, right. I mean, Yes, it is advantageous in a huge full field because the 14, if you make that right hand turn, so he’s technically on the rail, but then the rail flips back for the rest sick for the, for the remaining remaining six for longs of the race.
Yeah. It flips back to the normal left rail and American racing. It’s just at the beginning. And that’s what they’re trying to tell you that that’s the point of this whole conversation is that. That’s the disadvantage. If you’re breaking from the one in a full field, you’re actually breaking from the far outside.
And there’s a little bit of a tricky thing for you to get over. So you don’t run into the left rail. Now, what does happen when the rails are up on the downhill turf court? The rails I I’m 98% sure that the rail is only out after they crossed the dirt. There’s no rail when they’re coming down the Hill, that’s extended out.
There’s no temporary rail there. Um, um, um, I mean, I’ll watch a couple of races and apologize if I’m wrong, but I’m 98% sure. That the, that the temporary rail doesn’t start until the quarter of the dirt crossing. And one of the other reasons I know that is cause I hang out with the Eddie Logan late enough to see them taking down and putting up the rail.
And I’m pretty sure I miss the Eddie Logan so much. You realize this is the first winter in, I think a couple of decades. I mean, this goes back so far JK to maybe not quite decades. Maybe it was circa 2000 when I would do my annual trip, I’d visit Frank Skintone in San Diego. Back then our friend and mentor William Murray was alive.
We would do, it was usually a weekend in January when one of the, the, the big football weekends. And we’d always go up and do that. And then in recent years it changed, but we were getting out there for different contests. I’m actually gonna miss an entire winter. It looks like right now, At Santa Anita and I don’t like it, man.
I got to get it just been the way the travel has gone doing these extra trips to England to do the TV over there. It’s all good things, but man, do I miss it? And when you were just talking about sitting late in the Eddie Logan suite, I was, I’m feeling a little wistful. My friend, I really want to get out there.
We may have to manufacture some world horse player, tour business to get me out there, uh, for the Santa to Derby or something. I’m gonna, I’m going to get there. It’s I was supposed to be there last weekend and this weekend they late audibled me to go to Oaklawn. So I was, I was going to be there for the main and Black’s birthday last Sunday.
Did he show up, did he show up for his own birthday? He sometimes doesn’t it doesn’t always show up the next day. Yeah. You guys, you got to keep an eye on him. The night before I asked the other day, I asked the other day, I asked where Katiya how many beers the man in black has. . And the Eddie Logan. And, uh, cause he told me it was like eight.
She told me it was more like 14. That’s amazing. Somebody gave us a hard time when we did our survey about mentioning any Logan and Oh, so many of your listeners don’t have an opportunity to be there. It’s not true if you can get yourself. And I’m not saying it’s easy to find the scratch to play in a Santa Anita contest with a few thousand in the bank role, but you can qualify.
And if you qualify for a tournament at Santa Anita, You’ll absolutely have an opportunity to come in there and hopefully sit with us and, and talk and do your thing. It’s not somewhere that you can just go hang out on a Wednesday, unless you’re betting a lot of money, but it’s not something we hold out like where some elitists it’s, it’s there.
And Santa Anita, they’re known for their horseplayer hospitality. Some of them. Best in the business, if not the best in the business. And that’s something that listeners who are interested in, I don’t want you to feel like that’s some untouchable thing. Start trying to qualify and play in one of the big Santa Nita contests and go there and hang out and see what it’s all about.
And speaking of Santa Anita contest, JK, is there one coming up this weekend? There’s one this weekend. And so the $500 variety, I believe. Three who $300 prize pool of $200. Bankroll. It’s all the way around, whatever, if I’m wrong, I’m wrong. It’s one of the two I’m giving away a ultimate betting challenge, uh, seats.
They’re also giving away NHC. They’re giving away a bunch of stuff. So, um, I’m going to try. I don’t know if I’m going to be able to from a distance, but I’m going to try. Got it. I don’t lie. I mean, I’ll be honest with you. I have, I will do it. I’ll make a few bats when doing TV. I feel like it’s important to be wagering on races.
You’re talking about to some degree, but man doing a contest while being on TV. I don’t like it. I mean, unless you can just do some sort of pick and pray strategy and it’s going to be over after the time you’re on the air. I would find it too distracting. I don’t think I’d be able to do either one. Well, well, so a couple of things to that 0.1 is that I typically, my contest is two or three bets anyways.
Right? I mean, Uh, you know, the, the mandatories get met by doing cheeky things that don’t matter, you know, betting to show or what you know, or, or, or betting of keying a horse and a try, just real simple, just kind of getting in at the minimum, whatever. But usually I don’t even do that. I, I usually bet aggressive and almost all my money early.
And if I hit that, then I’ll just make the minimums go away. You know, I’ll just bet 600 a show or whatever it is. Uh, or vice versa. So, uh, and I’m gonna be on the, I’m going to be on the East coast, you know, at Oaklawn. So Santa Nita starts late and it can work itself out speed. If you play folks interested, should contact Nate newbie at Santa Anita.
That ultimate betting challenge is going to be fun. I assume they’re doing the cross-country again. I’m going to put you on the spot. Do you know what date that is? Uh, I do. I thought I was muted. I wasn’t. It is March 9th, March 9th. Okay. Very cool. That’s a big day of racing. I will probably be writing about that for Nate and for Santa Anita, hopefully should be a lot of fun.
It’s a cool contest. They do a great job. Check out the whole schedule over on their website. Let’s move on JK. We’ve got a few more listener questions I want to get to, and I do want to get to a little bit of handicapping, not, um, one of the bigger. Re weekends of racing for stuff that we’re going to be talking about on the show, but there’s definitely some interesting things and certainly some interesting opportunities.
I assume there’ll be another cross-country that on the races you’re covering on the show, there is, there is a cross country and in fact, I’m going to be on with Nancy Holt this on Saturday morning. I don’t know what even what it’s on, but it’s like an Oaklawn show that they do like Dawn at something.
But, um, that’s what we’re gonna be talking about. The, the, the cross country pick five. I don’t have it in front of me. It’s two races from. Aqueduct and three from, uh, from Oaklawn. So, and you know, it’s like late in the day, so you, you know, I’m sure Niara will have it on their website and you can catch Jay analysis live right on the Fox broadcast for that one.
We got to take advantage of all your new buddies out there. JK Nancy and Lafayette. And basically everybody you’ve sat with Paul, et cetera. We’ve got to get all these people on the end, the money players podcast. You think they’ll do it. I think so. I tell you what I, uh, Nancy has a ton of fun. I she’s hilarious.
I mean, she had me rolling. I had no idea from her, from her on, on camera personality. She’s a little bit more subdued when she’s, when she’s presenting on TV. She’s a ton of fun. I enjoy hanging out. Yeah. She seems like a real pro on TV. You’re saying she’s a bit of a cut-up. Oh, yeah, she’s got jokes for shrinking shots of people and whatnot.
Now that she’s got, she’s got jokes without a doubt. All right. Let’s move on to some more of these questions. Um, this is a tricky one. I’m just going to ask it the way it’s written on average, what do you spend on your 50 cent pick four and pick five tickets for a single sequence. What do you think your ideal average spend would be to maximize your opinions?
You want to go first? Or do you want me to go first? You know, I answered this question the same way I answered the question about what score do I need to have in a contest. There is no right answer to that. It is sequence dependable. So in gold, dependable, you know, what is your goal and what is the sequence that matters to how much you spend and how you’re going to do it?
Um, so I can’t answer that question. I will tell you this though. I am never interested. If you can’t afford this, then don’t play this pool. I am never interested in having a pick five for 50 cents and that’s the only thing I’m doing now, if it’s a saver ticket and 50 to one shots involved, and I’ve done some things where I’ve got $2, $4, $10 on my main opinions, then a 50 cent catches fine, but I’m not trying to hit a 50 cent, um, pick five.
And so play the Pickford, play the pick three, play the double. So outside of that, it just depends on what your opinion is based on how much you’re going to spend. And maybe Pete can round that in and I can maybe come back with another explanation and answer, but for me, that’s kind of basic, very well said.
And I think it’s, it’s hard to allocate something. I will say this, if you feel like you don’t have enough, To cover what your opinion is, and to bet it properly. In other words, if you like a mix of favorites and long shots and you don’t have enough to weight those combinations, I think you’re probably in the wrong pool.
And in an ideal world, you’re going to be able to play combinations that you can just scale up or scale down. And I agree with what you said. You’re not necessarily looking to hit. The combination you only have for the base increment, but if you do it right, you’re still going to have enough combinations with prices involved where that can be a nice type of safety net, or it’s a sequence that you think is super chaotic and you don’t really want to lean on any favorites.
That’s another situation where I could see casting kind of a wide net, not really waiting at as much, playing a lot of little stuff, hoping to beat three favorites, catch at least one $20 plus horse, and really blow it out of the water. I can’t really answer the question any more specifically than you JK, but I’ll say this.
If you’re worried, you can’t afford it. If you’re feeling stretched. Don’t play the bet. You know, people feel a lot of pressure, I think because the cost is so good and we’re so conditioned to paying too much takeout. And here you have an opportunity to pay 15% takeout in some instances for a five big exotic.
I’ll tell you what the strike rate is still going to be so low in that bet, unless. You have enough bank to withstand some pretty big losing streaks and have the budget to bet it efficiently, even though the pick three might cost 10 cents more, it still might be the better play. If you can bet it more efficiently.
Believe me I’m as big a believer as anybody in low takeout. And I think it’s one of the scourges of the game. What horse players have to play pay? For the cost of their wages that said it doesn’t mean that the lower cost bet is always the right bet, depending on what your opinion, what your budget and what your wagering personality all are.
I completely, I agree. And, and, and the thing that you have to do is, is identify when you need to be in a pool and when you don’t, and that’s one of the things that. I’ve tried to get better at we’re all action guys. We love the sport. We love the action. There’s nothing better in the world than your way.
Your winning wager, turning for home on a three links lead. We all feel appreciate it and love it. But you w what I’ve had to try to learn to do is you don’t have to be involved in every, every play. You don’t have to be involved in every weekend. You know, there’s these sequences where I feel like I need to absolutely play him.
And then I ended up don’t playing and I’m so like, like relieved that I didn’t get myself into that situation. And I think that game selection, like in most things that you do in life are the most one most important. So, yeah, you don’t have, the answer is you don’t have to play it. The pig five and the pig four, unless you have a strong opinion and you love something.
There’s so many underrated gambling concepts. And in horse racing to me, game selection might be the most underrated thing that people just don’t really consider. I think most of the time, but it’s just so important who you’re playing against and it’s something that really folks should give a lot more thought to true or false where we’ll do a little JK psychology.
Now. You to me just watching from a farm, we haven’t been playing together as much with our nothing, no reason other than our lives, just being so much going on and doing a lot of separate things. It feels to me like your play has been much more disciplined over the last couple of months. It also feels to me that you’ve been playing in a lot, fewer $2 wind place contests online.
Are these observations? Correct. And is there a connection between the two. Uh, there it is correct. Uh, and part of the two, the $2 wind place thing, you know, I’ve done good at it. I’ve had success at it. I, I can grind away and head to heads and I can, and I’ve done well and feeders and qualifiers. But what I, what I realized is is that my, the way that I play isn’t suited for those contests, those contests reward, people that.
Play on the winning side of it to win, right? They reward people that play longer price towards, you’re not talking about heads of heads. You’re talking about just like the one in 25, the one in twenties, God forbid the one in sixties, those just don’t fit. What I’m trying to do. And I had this, this idea of the other day is I would play in 300, $500 a head to heads.
And I play in, you know, two entry, $395 feed, or, you know, all these, do all these things. And I thought to myself, If I just take the $800 to $300, the $500. And I just blast an easy chalky, double I’m halfway there to like, come like halfway there to getting my injury fee. You know what I mean? There’s 3000.
I’m trying to get for the Caitlin contest or the 5,000. I’m trying to get for Del Mar or whatever it is. I just felt like para mutually, I could do more things with that $500 than I could in the $2 one place. And I think this is why it popped in my brain was the idea of game selection, because what you’re not saying there, that I think is the key is.
It’s not that it’s an easy double or whatever, it’s your strongest opinion of the day. So you’re taking more of your budget and you’re allocating it more narrowly on where your strongest opinion is rather than spreading it out through 10 races in a mythical wind place contest. And I’m going to go ahead and psychoanalyze you and say, you’ve probably been.
Pulled into making some cash bets in races that you didn’t even have that strong an opinion about because they were in a contest and you start looking more and you start getting a wild hair and deciding, you know, you want to do X, Y, and Z fair. Yeah. The nature of the contest is for you to, you know, usually you’re looking for, okay, who’s the 10 to one shot I can play here.
Okay. I can’t play these 10 to one shots. All right. Who do I think is going to win the race? Oh, I think it’s this horse. And then you, you make that selection. The problem is, is that because your first instinct is to look for the 10 to one, the seven to one, the eight to one to 12 to one, you start looking at those horses and convincing yourself that they’re the convincing yourself there’s value there.
And then if you like attend to one shot, you’re mean, why are you not playing it? Pair para mutually. Right? And so I would find myself like, you know, seeing all these sequences as great opportunities. When the reality was it wasn’t really the case better off just focusing on those strongest opinions and doing the damage that way.
All right. We’ve got a few more questions I want to get through this one. I should have brought up before, cause we kind of covered it already, but I think we can do it quickly. In the risen star, you had two horses hanging on to a hot pace, the seven and 10 and two making one run in the six and the eight.
Who do you think is the better bet back or bet against to me the horse who’s attacking slash attending the hot pace is running better than the horse. Who’s just making one run from the back. Almost every time there could be exceptions. I’d have to look at the specifics of the case numbers. I don’t want to speak specifically to the risen star.
I just want to talk about it more in terms of dynamics, but it’s this idea of where the real running occurs when the race is still in the balance. At and around the pace call and just beyond it, as opposed to making a run through the stretch, which can look good, which can look really good in a running line, but it’s not the same as making an attacking move or attending a fast pace.
Keep in mind, I’m talking about fast pace here where more of the real running is happening. I want to bet back the horses who are in the hunt at the pace call, who are making things happen as opposed to horses, just running on late. A hundred percent. I completely agree that you, you want the ones who are doing the running.
Uh, and, and you know, if it’s a slow pace race, you want the ones that are doing the running late. Cause that’s when the energy is being dispersed and the same way in a fast paced race, you want the horses that are, that are dispensing the most energy on the front end. We probably should have talked about the risen star and some of the racing from last week.
And I kind of forgot because we did the special Scott Coles show. On Tuesday, we never got a chance to loop back and talk about any of those winners from last week. Did you have any strong opinions on what you saw country house? The, the, the Belmont horse that I picked on her show is 21 morning line. He was green.
I don’t think he was ever necessarily going to be or will that day. But war of will is the type of horse that. Till that horse runs in the secretariat. I’m going to try to beat him every time and I’m going to keep trying to beat him and keep trying to beat them. And especially now he’s going to be over bet in my opinion, uh, in every race moving forward and, and, uh, possibly he could just keep proving me wrong, but I just feel like there’s the, the, the, the world’s gonna fall in love with him and he hasn’t done anything overly impressive.
Outside of, you know, you you’d compare them to a horse like improbable or a horse slide game winner. I just, I need to see more out of him before. Uh, I become a believer, apparently it’s the game selection edition of the, in the money players podcast, because that’s just another perfect example. I writing the column for, at the races for the people over in the UK, when that horse was available at five to two very clear play.
Very interesting. I don’t even remember what did he end up going off at the other day? Five D you got him at five, five, there was five to two. I think he was much, he was even money on the toe, you know? And that’s, and that’s the difference between a good bat. And I mean, I don’t want to say a bad, bad, it was an easy winner anyway, but there were far too many questions to take evens at five to two, it was like stealing.
My worry is very similar to yours. I wish, you know, sometimes I wish I could manufacture some heartaches here to fight with you JK, but 92 buyer speed figure just feels like one. Who’s going to be the, the concept of being exposed. And all that means to say a horse is exposed is we know how good he is.
And it’s hard to see going from where he is to continue to progress between now, now, and the first Saturday in may. That’s all. I mean, I think that’s our, that’s both of our point on him. Yeah. Any other reaction to any of the racing from over the weekend? We could, uh, there’s a few different places. We could go.
Something happened out West. Who do we have out West? I’m gonna throw super Steed out as the one that you saw on Monday with the 87 buyer speed figure, winning the Southwest. Was this a case of, if you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all. No, the horse ran well, he looked like he was shot out of a candidate of the three, eight pole.
Um, and I’m a little bit frustrated. My, my, the horse, I liked long range Tati was down on the inside getting steadied, trying to make the same run that super Steve was making and had a ton of horse didn’t get out until like after the 16 pole. But you know, when someone asks you about supersede, uh, when I was texting and they hadn’t seen the ratio.
And they said the horse out of a shot. And I said, well, two bags, his racist weren’t that bad. He just didn’t have an excuse in the last race. So that’s part of the reason I just missed them. And I think why a lot of people dismissed them as yet. He ran bad last race. He had no excuse, 62 to one winner.
Amazing. And the horse out West who turned a lot of heads, but didn’t particularly impress the figure. Makers was Galilean in the Cal cup Derby. Was that the horse you were thinking of? That’s that’s who I was thinking of. Yeah, he was, he was like one to five, one to nine or whatever. He’s one of my winners on the show, so, okay.
84 buyer speed figure for Galle. And, uh, I take it. You don’t think he’s going to continue the California Chrome impression? I don’t think so, but I didn’t think Chrome was going to do it either though. So let’s see what happens in the next race, but, uh, I’ll, I’ll sell at this point. All right. Fair enough.
We’ll do some Derby buy, sell, hold on a show soon. We don’t really have any Derby prep action this weekend. So maybe that’ll be a good segment on a show next week, sponsored by somebody or other we’ll. We’ll see if we’ll see if it ends up being a black type segment or a thoroughbred retirement foundation, or who knows.
There might be some new sponsors in the offing by then. On this new in the money podcast. One more question. And then we’ll very quickly handicap. We’ll get you out of here on time. NHC, qualifying online on a budget. Do you think I’m better off playing qualifiers to get into higher priced, low ratio contests or playing a lower dollar higher ratio contest?
Instead? I think, you know what I think on this one, you go ahead. Yeah, I’m, I’m always a, the lower ratio. That’s I prefer that, um, I’d rather spend a couple extra bucks and be able to have a better shot of winning rather than it being more of a lottery ticket. The other thing I’ve talked about on the show before, or is, is, is, you know, playing two contests at once to play a head to head for 20 bucks.
And then play a feeder for 20 bucks. Uh, there’s a lot of breaking, even if you can, if you can beat your head to head and then, you know, get breakage or, or, or advance the, the, uh, the, the feeder or those are, those are, those are a method. Those are methods that I would, I would do. I’ve done in the past. I’m playing both of those games at the same time.
So a math guy might say, but Hey, JK, if the feeder is one in 10 and then the next contest is one in 10 mathematically, that’s one in a hundred. And the other contest is one in 65. So why are you, why aren’t my chances better in the one in 65 than the two, one and tens? I think I know the answer again, but explain it.
Why it’s different in terms of the dynamics of the individual contests. JK tries math because the investment is less, the risk is less. I was going to say it’s because of the type of horses that are gonna get you through and because of the way that the, uh, the dynamics unfold, when you have to be one in 10, you don’t need.
A score that is sort of at the far end of the curve, you don’t need an outlier. You don’t necessarily need, you don’t need a cap horse. You can kind of just pick winners and grind. So it all depends to me. Again, goes back to handicapping personality. If you’re somebody who loves picking and finding long shots, By all means, go ahead and try the one in 65, but if you’re more oriented like us in that sweet spot odds range slash not in your case, especially not opposed to, to, uh, going down to the lower end of the odd spectrum, shall we say you can stack winners and find those horses and make moves to go through in the one in tens that you’d be.
You’re not obviously quite drawing dead in the one in 65, but you wouldn’t be playing those horses very often in the one in 65. So I just think it changes the dynamic in a way where even though the math is theoretically worse, it’s very likely to suit certain players personalities more. Is that fair?
Absolutely. It just does, you know, it doesn’t fit mine. And I think it’s one of those deals where it’s, you know, it’s when you’re playing a lot of 40 to one and 50 to one, you don’t see the, the, the ball with the hoop very much. And if you can handle that and that’s kind of what you like to do then I guess just that doesn’t work for me.
All right. Let’s talk about some racing JK and we will start at. Gulf stream park. Why not? And why don’t we start with the featured race, the house. Hope we have a horse. We’ve talked about a lot on the podcast here in number seven copper town. I can conjure excuses for the last couple races, but sometimes when the excuse is gait trouble, it.
Speaks to a larger issue that doesn’t always correct itself, though. It’s certainly interesting to see the connections continuing to try. Are you interested in copper town or somebody else here in the house? Hope at Gulf stream? Yeah. I only need two in here. Uh, breaking lucky and copper town. Um, you know, breaking lucky.
I don’t these two to one. I don’t really need to tell you much about him. I think he’s a good horse and I think George. Yeah, and he ran good last time. He just he’s just, you know, whatever. So copper towns are one, I think has probably a little bit more of a story leaky kind of like you had mentioned, he did that middle move in the cigar mile into a, into a, you know, a fair enough pace, but he middle moved into there.
Um, and then in the last race, if you, if you look at the start or right before the start, he was pretty fractious. And from all accounts, it looked like he hit his head. And I think Mike Maloney even talked about it in his book. Betting with an edge about how, how, you know, kind of hidden trip trouble that is.
We talked about trip, you know, notes and, and backs earlier, you know, a horse banging his head right on a gate right before he runs. They never backed them out. Um, I thought they might even scratch them. They just put the jockey back on and here they go. So I think he had an excuse to run poorly there he’s back in 28 days, which is pretty sharp.
For Todd under most situations. Um, and I think he’s on a run. Well, I mean, I, I think that he’s got an excuse. I mean, you know, excuse me, his last trip, obviously we’ll look at the workout report and see how he’s training since then. Um, but, uh, you know, I think he’ll probably run well, Quip is a nice horse he’s in here, but I feel like the way he stacks up on numbers, he probably should be longer than the price I’m going to guess.
He’s going to be based on his famous name. Am I being too harsh? Yeah. You know, we’ll see what happens. I know that Rudolph has been, been always been high on the horse and says he’s doing well. Um, I haven’t heard, you know, like, you know, leading up to this, I’m sure he’ll run well, I’m just not sure the mile is his end game.
I think maybe he wants to go a little bit further. And so we’ll see, uh, as he progresses, it’s a pretty long break for a good horse that you would think that, that they have bigger aspirations than the grade three houses. No offense to the house. Oh, but you’d figure that you brought him back in training and went to grade one somewhere.
And, uh, and that’ll probably be the next. Start at the start after that. So I think, you know, I’m not sure that isn’t the ratio on a bet, Quip it at the second or third choice. Let’s talk about the 12th race at Gulf stream. I think it’s actually a object lesson in one of the trip angles. We were just talking about the rematch between stand up and yes, I am free.
And for me, this is an example of yes, I am free. Contending, uh, battling in a pace that at least had one coded red fraction on time form us versus up who was flying late, but may have seen that run flattered a bit by that red flare action in the middle. I expect, yes, I am free to confirm the form here. Is this a two horse race?
Am I making it too simple? And what do you think. I think the most important part is the distance of the rice. It’s five for a long sense of Gulf stream. It is a quarter horse race, and that always has been that’s. Why pay any prices done the damage he’s done down there? Cause he’s so stinking fast. Yes, I am free.
Should break and should be forward. I rad Ortiz as one 47 races in the last three days. So he’ll probably be in, in good form. Stand up kind of. Broke poorly into that good trip. That was kind of a setup come running late. A lot of people are going to bet off of missing the break and running late, and he’s still going to have to get lucky and hope that yes I am free gets pressure and it’s it’s yes, I am free second race.
He’s going to be sharper than he was last time. Um, I use would use to, if you’re playing multi-racial things leading. Harder on the other one do not use them equally. If you use them equally, you’re wrong. Pick the one you liked the most and press that one a little bit more. Uh, but yes, I am free as a one.
I’ll be present. All right. We have some more agreement that we’re agreeing too much today. Well, we’ll have to manufacture a fight in the, in the bone of Vista or something, but that’s another thing to talk about in terms of trip angles when bad brakes matter, which to me is pretty simple with speed horses.
They matter. Absolute Tom, that could be the full excuse right there. Draw a line through the race, go back and evaluate the horse off the previous form for a closer, who gets a fast paced to run into. There’s a lot worse things than getting left. I give no extra credit in that instance. Maybe I’m too harsh, but I think sometimes people will bet them a little exuberantly when really the, the tardy beginning actually may have helped and helped flatter the late run into the fast pace.
Let’s talk when a Vista out at Santa Anita, the track you consider your home track, though, it sounds like you might have to switch that to Oaklawn JK, but what do you think in this this year is when a Vista, does it seem like a race you would be targeting for the contest? Should you decide to play? Um, I don’t think so.
I think a lot of things could happen here. Um, and a lot of things that I couldn’t even predict happening here. Um, it’s clearly some speed in here falling Europe. Who who showed up at Gulf stream to running the Pegasus turf? Um, obviously ran fast early and was beaten 33 and a half lengths. So I’m not sure the performance, that’s what they were.
I don’t think that’s what they were hoping for. They’re going to run a little bit here. You know, the silicas probably the winner. She just keeps winning. She’s she’s so good. Yeah, she’s so cool. Um, you know, I, I kind of want to, and I’ll be honest. I haven’t had a chance to do it, but something I’ll do between now and then.
Um, I, I want to read a little bit more about Alicia’s world. I thought she sold. And so I wanted, but she pawned is still in. So I’m trying to figure out the dynamic there, because I want to understand that switch from Chad to baldness. And it’s not as a switch that terrifies me in all honesty. Um, and she’s going to finally get some pace that she wants to run into.
Let’s not forget she’s an East coast turf horse running in a West coast or phrase a little I’m a little bit interested in her with Joel Rosario. I want to read this story. I need to refresh my brain on exactly. All that happened. Compelled I think is interesting. I’ve always loved compelled, but I think she’s going to be better down the Hill.
They missed that down the Hill race, uh, with the bad weather, I think she was supposed to run in one of the breeders’ cup, mandatory races if I’m not mistaken, but she, I think she came off and she didn’t run well on dirt last time. So I think maybe she just kinda got stuck in this mile spot, but I guess Alyssia is world for me, maybe.
I mean, maybe just Basilica. Darn. No, no, no chance to fight. I agree with everything you said about Basilica. I just thought at the price and with what I’m expecting the dynamics to be here, I’ll take a shot. It will see his world coming out of four wide, both turns coming out of closing against the slow pace and then going into a fast paced switches like that in terms of dynamics or something that I really like the horse, the flow.
Downgrade who projects this time, excuse me. The flow upgrade, trying to close into the slow paced. Last time projecting to get the hot paste this time. It’s sort of like a plus plus thing. Now that four to one on world may end up being a fantasy. There’s so much that I like here. I think this is where I have to go.
I agree. I want to see the workout report. See how she’s trading since she’s been with Richie. And I don’t know. I think what a Chad, Chad always trained her. On the dirt, it looks like, ah, the turf a little bit too. So we’ll, we’ll see. Cause he’s obviously not going to, I don’t think they can train on the turf at Santa Anita, especially with all the weather they’ve had.
So we’ll, we’ll see what happens with her. She could be bent down too, though. Let me know if you see the story and for our listeners sake, go ahead and tweet it. If you find anything out about the sheep pond, still being in, but switched to ball to success. If you see any good info there. Alright, JK, we are over time.
Well, you should wrap this sucker up. Thank you so much for, uh, all of your efforts today. I think that was a fun show going kind of old school, just spitball and for an hour, very enjoyable stuff. Knock them out on the TV. Once again, this weekend, my friend. Will do, and that’s going to do it for this episode.
Thanks again to JK. I want to thank the, in the money media business manager, drew Kourtney. I want to thank our friends at black type thoroughbreds at 10 strike racing and app a thoroughbred retirement foundation. Most of all, I want to thank you. All of you, the listeners, keep those questions coming.
Hashtag ask ITM. We’ll get to as many as we can. We will be back early next week. I’m Peter Thomas foreigner. Now may you win all your photos.