Frank McGoey is back by popular demand to tell us all about the rumplemintz incident, and to walk us through his race-by-race thoughts on the Louisiana Derby card.
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***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains errors and inaccuracies. ***
Hello and welcome to the, in the money players podcast. This is show number 26, I think March 22nd, 2019 is the date. I’m your host, Peter Thomas. back with you from London. Once again. Perrin alongside sort of singing to herself. They’re not catching my eye when I give her the, the international symbol for shush, but you know, that’ll sound okay.
In the background. We are in the hotel. That is the Savoy compared to the youth hostel and getting ready to head over to sky studios in West London to do another night. Of stateside racing over there. That’s been super fun. The half marathon is on Sunday, and then I fly back to the USA. So this is the last stop on the end, the money players podcast, world tour.
And for this show, we’re going to be focusing in on fairgrounds and Louisiana Derby day. We’re going to bring in the normal co-host to this program and about 10 or 15 minutes. But right now I want to introduce the special guest he’s back by popular demand. Frank McGaughey Frank what’s up. How you doing Peter ref?
Uh, you know, I thought I was living the dream, so I had to listen to your globe trotting lifestyle. My God, I gotta get out of here. It’s been fun, man. It’s a, have you ever been racing overseas? I have not. Uh, it’s on Patrick and I’s bucket list to get to a Ascot. Well, we’ll do it together. I tell you what the save the, not this year’s Royal meeting, take a look in the future and think about, ask it in 2020, there is a small chance.
There is a very small chance. There may be a betting contest. At Royal Ascott eventually a little bird told me no inside information here, but anyway, that maybe that could be the excuse to get you guys to come over. I think that might do it. I can’t wait. That sounds awesome. So how fast and bolded some American racing now?
Oh yeah, that’s right.
I see. We’ll we’ll work on all the details. There’s plenty of time between now. And then how have you been, what’s been going on down there. I’ve been good, uh, survived Mardi Gras, made it through, um, With one little bump in the road, we’re going to refer to that going forward as the Rockwell men incident, which has a bit of a story to it.
If you want the whole, Oh please. Are you kidding? If you’re here, it’s tales from the track, for sure. I don’t know if this is a tale from the track or a tale from the, from the gutter. But if everything, if rolls in Mardi Gras and the track and the city, it’s just, it’s just how new always makes people go back.
And then it just happens. You know, I don’t think Chuck Muncie had, she had a drug. And so we signed with the new Orleans settings. There’s a reference going back. Yeah, that’s a little bit anyway. So, uh, we had relatives come into, my wife, had relatives come to town on the Thursday before Mardi Gras. And we went out to the night parades at night.
And that I was dropping them off, down in the French quarter. They were going to preservation hall for a show. Nice. Her relatives were staying at a Airbnb. And so I knew there was a chance that my wife might stay at the Airbnb with them if it was too late. So I had to work the next day and she was taking the next day off.
I get up the next morning, like four as usual start handicapping and about five 30. I checked my email and, uh, and I’ve got two emails from chase bank fraud alert. Here we go. About cash withdrawals at Harris casino. Apparently my wife take it out. That’s the more she tried, the more she would have a chance to win it.
Slouchy, needless to say. Uh, so when they get home, when she finally gets home that the next day with them, um, they will go back to the parades Friday night. And as a personal protest, I said, I am going to my buddy’s bar. I’m going to play Delta and get whacked out for my buck. Well, let’s do another, I like the what’s, the Delta paid shifts and the exact came back like 200 and then, uh, just went bad beat.
It happens, boy. The next day. I think I was, I woke up, I slept through all the day cards all the time, which had already been a waste of time. I was missing like 50 phone calls and 20 techs. The leader of that pack was a legendary Sandy too. So I think he had texted me seven times and call me eight times.
He obviously had some steamer. He wanted to talk about classic flame thrower who connected pretty good night. I might. Anyway, uh, he’s uh, he’s just one of the characters I missed that day. So it was a bit of a haze, but I made it through, um, in tradition, made it to the fairgrounds or Mardi Gras day. It was called and, uh, we got through it.
Great weekend. You survived, you survived the intervening weeks, but I gotta ask Frank Rumple. Minze what are you? 19 years old. I, my buddy owns a bar and he pours these things like they’re going out of style. I know I shouldn’t be doing that. So I’m 54. I have no business sooner. That’s why I’m in bed. The whole next step happens like three times a week.
God, we’ve all been there. We’ve all, especially Jonathan might be there now. That’s his lateness on the, on the show today? I’m not sure. I’m not sure what his excuse was. He, this is vintage JK, Frank. He picks the time and then shows up late. Listen, it’s in his PP. We shouldn’t expect anything. It’s true. It’s true.
As a student of past performances, I should not be surprised. What about racing wise? That’s great. You, you, you apparently crushed it that night before it all went wrong with the Rumple. Minze but have the ponies been good to you? It pushed me over the top. I had one foot out the door that it was like, I think apparently almost got the bartender far too.
Oh, geez. Yeah, she was drinking shots by the end of the night, the hotel was, Oh, geez. He gotta be drinking on the job. It’s a that’s that? Don’t try this at home folks. Yep. Fairgrounds has been good. Um, the later part of the meat’s been really good, especially when, when Delta shut down and those Delta horses fold into the mix of the state bread races.
Um, you can catch some prices and I have in the. So I’ve got no complaints. That’s good. Do you, a lot of pro players don’t really pay all that much attention to the triple crown. Seeing those are just other races to them, others see the opportunity and follow it kind of closely. Where do you fall in terms of following the three-year-old crop nationally at this time of year?
Um, I haven’t, so I don’t lock on it, anybody, and, and I really am only watching the preps at the race at the tracks that I normally would play, which would be Gulfstream fairgrounds. In Oaklawn, um, obviously sending you is like running right now, but, uh, I, I don’t follow New York too much this time a year, so I don’t know what’s going on at three O front there, um, with so far out.
I mean, I know we’re only six weeks, but that’s, you know, how, how far we are from the Derby in terms of course time, so much stuff can change. I really don’t make my decision on who I’m going to like, um, in a Derby until I get to Louisville and the week of the Derby and get to see them all together. On a track in the morning.
Cause that’s what finally, that’s what separates you to me when I make my final decision, when I get to see them physically. I remember the year that, uh, when Pharaoh Dortmund and firing line one, two, three, yup. When, when you saw those three horses training, they look like four year olds compared to the rest of the field.
And it just, I mean, if you really boil it down, it’s just a physical competition. And when the three. That’s what can athletes look like? They tower over the other ones. That’s kind of how they’re going to run. And just that way, then it just developed before the rest of the crop. And, uh, And that’s, that’s what I’ve kind of, you know, the final that’s my final decision makes sense.
Horses will tout themselves out there in the morning. And you, as a student of this stuff for many years are in great position to take advantage of that. Did you get a chance to see the rebel steaks last week? I’m just curious if you had a quick thought on either of the Baffert runners and their returns to the races, the ones who are at the head of the future market right now for the Derby.
Yeah, I did. I actually. I was talking to some people about it the next day, because on Sunday, I mean, I watched the races live and on Sunday I went back and watched the replays a few times. Um, I mean, I think both those horses will move way forward off that effort. They had to knock the rust off and, uh, and I think they’ll both get a lot out of it.
Game winter to me look dead tired the last days of a month. Get it all at heart. Yep. Agreed in it. Uh, probable he, I thought he’d beat himself after an impossible trip. I mean, he made that move to sweets and lead, and then it kind of looked to me like he was kind of looking at the head of said cock to the right a little bit, maybe new surroundings and kind of lost focus, um, long range toddies.
Nice. But in my opinion, he can’t warm up and probable going forward. Right. I mean, the way guy probably galloped out in front of him, I mean, It’s just no comparison in my opinion. And let Omaha beach is nice too. I mean, he got a great trip, but, but he’s a nice horse, so I haven’t made any decisions. Um, you know, and I won’t until a couple of days before Derby, but all three of those are definitely, you know, Some of the top ones I’m thinking about, we’re going to bring in JK here in a minute, Frank, but before we get to that, I want to give you a chance.
You busted out the old Chuck Muncie reference, uh, out of the moth balls. I appreciate that. One of the first football cards I ever purchased circa 1981 was Chuck Muncie. But I wanted to give you a chance to go back. I know you’ve got a lot of stories from back in the day of racing, and I thought this might be a good forum to get to one of them.
If anything, Springs to mind from, from the Chuck Muncie era, or even going further back, trying to think, um, shut them once he was in the eighties. I mean, I’ve, my whole life is a story beat. It’s crazy. It’s it really is. Um, I remember being at the fairgrounds one day, it was a Friday and, uh, they used to have this three o’clock post on Friday and a good friend of Randy Romero’s this guy, Caroline shell was the chef.
He was his page and chef, he put on like the best seafood buffet in the city. I’m telling it was really, really good. It’s a place is always packed and we happen to like a bunch of twos. In the later part of the car. So, uh, it just happened that way. And in the last three other last four races, the two want to there’s one and we were just sitting down, I mean, loaded up into the final race to this two horse and he wins and gets disqualified and yeah, he went to get disqualified and my buddy Bobby Bowden, who.
Equally, he wasn’t going home with money unless he won the last race,
serious guys like that. Yeah. Yeah. We were fixing to leave. I still got plenty of friends like that. We were fixing to leave and, uh, they were getting ready to run the first race at Delta and, and after sitting there, and self-interest few minutes, both them says. No, I’m glad we got dqued. Cause I don’t know how it would have been 8,000 in his first year.
That’s phenomenal. Yeah. I just thought of that. Cause today is a Friday and made me think of the Friday 3:00 PM posts the good old days back in the eighties. Oh, that’s great. You’re the best, you know, some guests, I wind them up and let them go. You don’t really even take any windings. Uh, well, I’m glad you’re pleased.
How’s that? I’m glad somebody is, uh, while we’re talking, unfortunately, that story ended with a defeat. I thought it might be ending with a victory. And I was going to ask you for your favorite victory dinner spots in or around new Orleans when it just all dovetails. Right? Where do you go to celebrate?
Well, it usually doesn’t involve dinner. It usually involves a ballroom, um, Usually wind up at this place called sports beat, which a friend of mine owns. And, uh, I mean, or we go to sidelines another place in front of all these sports bars, by the way. Um, I’m not watching. I’m not one on, on eating a big dinner after I get stoned on drinking.
I’m usually just going to keep going until it pops up. Not that not for the faint of heart, but I’m just one way to go. I’m not a big drinker. I’m not, I mean, I’m not a real big drink. I don’t drink every night and I’m pretty reserved on the Derby trip. I mean, they’re not on the Derby trip. I usually leave Patrick and those guys, I usually leave around 11 at night and they’re the ones that stagger in at three.
And I got to get them up at eight to make first posts. Not sure if you heard, but we recently had another Louisiana native Eric on the show. He also a character. I don’t know if it’s something in the water down there or what. I was curious if you’ve had any dealings with Mr. along the way. And I was curious to see, uh, how to get your objective opinion on how good his gumbo is.
Well, I have not had as gumbo. And I will tell you that I actually did have a conversation with him, but it was not at the racetrack. If we were actually in the same car wash and we were sitting on a bench outside this carwash, he was getting his Mercedes washed and I was getting my Ford escape wash. So that can tell you about that.
How’s that brilliant. And she sat next to me and we talked for about 10 minutes. And let me tell you that is a piece of work.
I remember. So the guy he’s training for a Mike Marino, um, he used the, the first big horse he had down here was a horse in the eighties called show me the stage. Ricky Carville was the rider that who was, she was, she was really nice sprinter. She used to run five, uh, five on the grass on six on a Derby.
She, anything spreadsheet could do. And, uh, Ricky Cordell is now a trainer here in Louisiana. Um, but I started talking to him about show me the stage. And when I brought that up, because this wasn’t as long ago, this was only like two or three years ago. Um, that I just happened to bump into him at this car wash.
So when he, when I started brought up, show me the stage, he knew that he was talking to somebody that was a lifer like him. And, uh, he just started down the road and he just, I mean, there was one last, Oh yeah. He’s, he’s insane. He he’s, he’s a trip. I remember clocker John Nichols sent me a picture of geo in the paddock at, uh, Keelan.
And he was wearing a camouflage shirt. That’s gotta be a first. I think I remember him getting kicked out of the Saratoga winner circle in his first year up there for trying to walk in there with shorts and they wouldn’t let him. I believe it. Yeah, that sounds like can listen. He’s passionate though. I mean, and he’s doing what he loves.
So I tip my cap to him. That’s the name of this game? I mean, I put a lot of work in with these horses, but it doesn’t seem like work because I love it. You know? So I tip my cap to Eric and I hope he keeps, I hope he stays in the game. He’s good for the game. There’s not enough guys like around like him.
Well, we’re going to hopefully absolutely. He makes it a lot of fun and we’re going to have him back at some stage and, or maybe even try to do an event with him in Saratoga, where we were toying with the idea. We’ll see, we’ll see what happens. Hopefully it’ll be while you’re around. You might have to have people sign waivers when you do that shit.
Before we get to our next guest, just wanted to point out that this show brought to you by black type thoroughbreds and our friend, Jake Ballis for more information about how you can get involved in race, horse ownership, check out black type tb.com and just to further tease something I teased the other day.
Friday night opening weekend at Keeneland. If you’re a podcast fan, save the date. Rumor that black type’s own Jake Ballis might be joining me. Jay Kay and Mike Maloney for a seminar at a local watering hole. It will have food. So we don’t encourage you to go to the Frank McGaughey route and skip eating and just drink with us.
You can eat and drink with us. Talk about Kaitlin. We call Jake ballast, the Prince of Keeneland, come and see him come and meet him. Talk to him about getting involved in thoroughbred ownership. Once again, that URL black type tb.com more information about the Keelan event going to be coming down the line soon.
Let’s bring in the co-host of this program. He’s calling in from the planet, Texas. We’re going to find out where he’s been for the last 15 minutes or perhaps the last 15 hours in a second. He’s the most electrifying man in all of handicapping, the people’s champion, Jonathan kitchen. What’s up JK. What’s going on.
I heard you’re spreading rumors about, uh, I had, uh, had a little ice cream, a little March madness. I was asleep by nine 45. So this was just life I thought I meant was in your P P J K. No, there’s no doubt. It was about four back, fresh off a lay off. I can get a little, I can get a little bit, a little wild, first off, a little bit of a runoff.
Fresh off a layoff. No, I had to take Austin to school this morning. Yeah. Fair enough. Yeah, you definitely need a lip. Jayne.
J K. What are you up to this weekend? Will you be on Fox sports once again? No. No. Fox sports is, is, is on pause until April six. They’ll come back, uh, strong with, uh, uh, would Memorial and San Anita Derby day. Um, I don’t know if I’m going to be at one of those two locations, so I’m, I might be on pause for a second.
So I’m kind of the, the relief picture, I think for, at least for the time being. Um, but some of these other, these bigger shows, I mean, they, I just come in, come in when they need me. So we’ll see nothing, nothing scheduled yet, but they’ll be back April 2nd. It’s a strong lineup over there so I can see why they might keep you in the bullpen, frankly.
Absolutely. I’m kidding. I’m kidding. Of course I did not watch last week because we were doing competing broadcast. I was on TV over here, but I heard you did very well. Did you give out a few? Uh, Omaha beach was one and then, uh, it was a horse of seven to two at, at, um, At Aquatech I gave out and that was pretty much it.
I, I, I whiffed the rest of the way. My best bet was a late in the problem and improbable, they both lost. So, uh, I looked like a genius there, but, uh, but I did feel more comfortable though. It’s, it’s a little, it’s a different animal than this. Um, I feel more comfortable in the car on pre-sessional situations where I think I’m talking to someone, but when I feel like I’m talking at someone one or like presenting it, I get it.
It’s just a weirder dynamic. And, and so, uh, But, uh, this show kind of float a little bit better for me. I think here’s a loaded question. Hey Frank, have you ever done any television? Uh, I dunno. I don’t feel, I don’t know that I have our TV show you goofball. I was setting you up. Well, you guys have done such a good job, getting it on air.
That horse racing, man, it’s, it’s slow. It’s one foot in front of the other. The project is very much alive and well, the pilot was always meant just to be out there as proof of concept. Don’t don’t get all down on us now. I think we should. I think we should take another one since and learn from our mistakes.
I’m all for that. Fly us all back up to Santa Anita. Let’s do it again. Well, it may well happen yet. We’re still in conversations. We’ll have an update, hopefully in, I don’t know, maybe I’ll charitably say a month. On what’s going on. We’re not trying to hold out on people. It’s just, it’s a long slow process, but the idea again, very much alive and well.
All right, gentlemen, I think it’s time for us to dive into these races. We’ll do it kind of like we did last time. We’re going to start off by going through these graded stakes at the fairgrounds. And then Frank will offer you the opportunity if you care to, to Mark people’s cards from earlier in the day, based on what you’ve been seeing and studying out that way.
But for the purposes of the graded stakes, they will kick off at four 34 local time on Saturday. That’s race 10, it’s the new Orleans, a grade two, Frank, as our guest, we will start with you. What do you think here? I, you know, this is a really good race. Um, it it’s competitive. I’ve got some ideas. I do know they’re going to be two scratches out of the race mode.
Don’t know the one is coming out and noble Indy. The four is coming out. Okay. Uh, so with that, with knowing that, um, I’m leaning towards cop bullet, I put the race 10, six, three two, which is copper bullet. Silver dust super tap it in lone sailor. I’m not real creative here, but I’m thinking that, I mean, comparable at the 10th at a pretty quick pace, the other day in the Razorback and raided our Superstore came back in and verified that race when he pulled up the upset last weekend at Oaklawn.
Yup. Um, and copper bullet was strong. I know he’s going a little bit further here. But I see him getting that nice stocking trip outside of Mr. Buck, who just for myself, he’s going to have to do it outside of aqueduct for me. Um, it looks like he’s made some pretty easy leads, his last few races. So I kind of envisioned him going and kapa bullet setting up shop right outside of him.
Um, taking them on at some point, I’m going to my thinking with core beliefs is that he’s probably going to need one off that kind of lay off, um, silver dust. He here’s a horse that just keeps getting better. I saw the source of the paddock school that he on Wednesday at the fairgrounds and he looks great.
I know he got first run last time, but he just seems like he’s getting better and better. And I don’t see why it’s not going to show up again. He’s doing good. And he’s like, he obviously likes this track. Um, I put super tap at third, even though he did not fire at Oaklawn. He has fired here before you get a rider change to gaff Leone, who just seems to click when he’s riding for Cassie.
And lone sailor had that left last time, a couple of lakes and closer to a slow pace. And he probably needed that start. He should come run into things, get dicey up front. So nothing tricky here. I probably back up with an all in, uh, in pics, in, you know, multi race picks. But, um, I’m leaning that way. 10, six, three, two.
I’ll put in it just a quick word for loan sale or a horse. I’ve always kind of liked who I was thinking. There would be enough pace for him to make a run and get in there. And I did note, as you said, Frank, that he was closing into that slow pace, coded blue on time form us last time. J K how do you see it?
I completely agree. I agree, you know, for the sake of time and maybe we can sneak another story and I don’t want to waste a lot. I agree exactly. All the reasons that you guys like lone sailor is the reason that lone sailor is my top pick. I think that copper bullet is the most talented horse in the race, the most likely winner in the race, but he is drawn outside.
He is going to be going the furthest he’s ever gone. Uh, he is going to be having. To deal with some pace with a wide trip, likely, you know, you’d likely going to at least be in the two path. So the two path or the three paths all the way around, they’re going a mile and eight it’s actually be running a little bit further.
I just feel like he’s going to either blow the race up or win by three and I’m going to vote, blow the race up and I’ll take lone sailor to pick up all the pieces. I can totally see that scenario, JK. I mean, even though I’ve got them on top. Uh, it’s just assuming that he’s going to get the extra distance, but yeah, obviously it’s a, a selection that things could go together.
I could invert my numbers easily in this race and make it two, three, six, 10, you know? So it’s wide open, right? Race 11 is the grade two Muniz Memorial handicap JK. We’ll keep it with you for this one. Before I give my Munis pick one quick thought. If, if you were, if you shared the opinion and you’re more than four deep in the new Orleans handicap, man, don’t play the pick four, just play the pick Surrey.
Like people feel this, you feel inclined to have to like play the pig for cause it’s Louisiana Derby day. Like if you don’t have an opinion, And you can’t narrow the situation two or three horses. Don’t play that pick four, you know, if you ended up using five or six in there, skip that, skip that leg and that, that, uh, that multi-racial more, especially if you go back to a Sabre, there’s no value in that.
Um, you know, and I’d rather, I’d be honest with you. I played way more victories than I do pick for us in almost inevitably seems to me that doesn’t erase in a pick for a sequence that I just don’t like. And I, I, I’d rather just zero in on a pick three and try to hit that more times than spreading and hitting a pick four.
So I think that’s good advice, Frank, when you were talking about using, when you were talking about using some, all there, were you talking about pick threes and just small as savers? How do you reconcile the advice you’re giving there with, uh, with, uh, when you mentioned before you’d consider doing it? I, when we get to the next race, I’ve got a lobster that I’ve kind of created the next race.
I don’t want to make sure I’ve got some coverage guy smart as well. Yes. Yes. And that makes a ton of sense that you can’t just talk about these things in the abstract. It depends on the specifics of the numbers. And if you’ve got one that’s going to pay, I get the idea of taking a small amount of your money and making sure you’re alive as well as betting more efficiently.
Our JK always talks about in other pools. All right. J K your thoughts on race 11. So look, the gorillas in the room. Everyone sees the horse. We, yes, he’s there and yes, I’m going to pick them. Let me explain, explain it first look. Synchrony is a freak. Uh, I think that, that, uh, Frank pointed that out last time he was on the show and kind of let everyone to the performance that he had winning and even money by, you know, LinkedIn, uh, LinkedIn and a half or whatever I’m aware of that bricks and mortar one, the Pegasus turf.
I’m aware that he ran a freakishly. Good. Um, I don’t know if you’ve already directed people to Vinny South streets, trip notes. I don’t know if you’re gonna plug that later, but he’s got a great note about bricks and mortar and the way that race was run. If you’re going to be playing fairground, you should check that out.
I just actually think that Divisadero is going to get the, you know, this is the, the nine furlongs is what. Kind of hits him right. Between the eyes. It’s what he’s won so many times with this distance, four times, not the distance. He keeps running good races. He just doesn’t win. And I just feel like this is a possibility that he can get it going here and I’m going to give a Divisadero, another shot for, for obvious reasons.
I’ll take the two. There, there was no doubting that you and I were going to pick Divisadero here. So we’ll throw it to Frank where at least there’s some drama where he might land. Yeah, he Zulu outfit. I mean, uh, what do you call it? The visit Daryl was in my business, but what I was gonna say was I was talking to Gary Parmesano earlier this week, uh, because this was a very painful race for me to handicap because of Zulu alpha.
Last year, I made a point to call Gary last year. Cause I know he’s got father Brian that his kids and, uh, and, and Brian was riding Zulu alpha in this race last year. For the whole house had them at that time. And I told Brian, I had a trip on his horse at the time before, and that it wasn’t a lot of pace and I thought he might be able to steal it.
So, you know, tell him, even though he had never been on the horse, don’t worry about that. He looks like he’s going to be 30 to one. He’s got a shot. And uh, I made a big winter place bet on him and made a big exactly with synchrony who wasn’t, who was the horse to beat that day. And Zulu alpha led into deep stretch and ran third at 90 to one.
Oh my God. And like sick. Yeah. And then he went on to get claimed by John Ortiz for 80,000 and now maker’s got him and he’s coming off. What did he run? Second. And the second one, his last race at Gulf stream. If I remember correctly anyway, uh, painful handicap. Yeah. Bringing back bad memories. Yeah, I know about the elephant in the room, um, with the bricks and mortar and synchrony who I love.
I think synchrony is so cool. And I get to see him train all the whole winter here. Um, and, and I don’t disagree that the visit DERO of the two coming out of the visit, they’re all raised. I’ll wait for the visit Darrow than expected Lindley who got a great trip that day, but I’m gonna try to get creative and it just happens to be with another Calumet horse and Leah Bandawat.
Who I thought out, ran his odds last time. And I don’t see a ton of pace in this race. And Adam, the second has been aggressive, this meek. So if he’s left, I mean, if the favorites kind of involve themselves with each other, worrying about, you know, covering each other’s moves, he might get brave for the price.
I mean, I thought he ran pretty good to run second the other day at 30 to one. And he was wide throughout, not wide, real wide, but a little wide. When secretary had a, more of an inside-out trip that day, um, So, yeah, it’s not going to shock me. I can’t fuck with bricks and mortar. That’s like pulling from my wife to order more stuff from Amazon.
I can’t put for a children.
Oh, quite possibly the greatest line in podcasts. That’s fantastic. Hall of fame level stuff. Andy gives you a 12 to one shot. One more. What more do you want from this man people? Right. And it’s synchrony and synchrony and, or, or bricks and mortar wins. We’ll just move on and go to the next, how much money could we make at the Saratoga with this t-shirt on the front.
It says, I can’t bet on Chad Brown dot, dot, dot on the back. It should say it’s like betting on, have to buy more off the Amazon millions. We’d be million Saratoga. That’s great. I want a piece of you’ll definitely get a royalty is 30% of what we make goes right to you. The fairgrounds and Oaks is the 12th race on Saturday at the fairgrounds.
Frank, do you know who’s going to win this one? Yeah, I don’t. I mean more than likely. So if, if Amos, if Sarah Getty Everest, Amos was like walking around, keeping the source on the wraps, like everybody thought she was in need one last time. And then she just pops the latch and quarter horses the first quarter of a mile and it just draws off.
So, I mean, obviously if she runs that race again, she’s going to be. Probably unbeatable. Um, I I’m, I’m guessing that Cadillac knows ed blinkers. His is not going to be well, let’s sit second. The Serengeti uppers. So maybe Sarah Getty efforts bounces a little bit off that big effort. Maybe Lee aura breaks better or gets on top of it.
We see some kind of mix up. Um, I’m like cute here. She’s the most likely winner, but era’s too has gotten better. Every start. And came through a little traffic last time. If she moves forward in Serengeti, uppers takes us a little bit of a step back. Maybe she could upset him. And then I’m going to get really creative here with the one speed that who maybe it’s just not that she’s a terrible horse.
Maybe it’s just a typical Lake development. DeSorbo horse is going to be sitting on the rail with Corey Flannery and she sucks up into it at a big price. Uh, I’m not fancy. I put the race to six one eight here. Won’t surprise me if Serengeti emphas wins by five how’s that, that works. J K yes. Serengeti.
Obviously I was, was, was vocally against her in the breeders’ cup, juvenile. Billy. I try to be against her last time. Um, and, and she exploded, right? I mean, winning by four, the alternate horse, like Frank mentioned would be Lee aura, but Lee is like, if she’s going to win, it’s like, she’s got to get this perfect trip that if the race unfold.
Old that way. I don’t see how they beat Serengeti emperor. So era’s two was the one that I could kind of come up with creative. Um, she was the closest one. She, she had a little traffic last time, so obviously there’s a reason to improve, but when you’re 25 to one against a horse, the time before that horse beat you by five, I don’t really see a lot of reasons to turn the tables.
I mean, I singled Serengeti, Empress. And the one that I gave him on out of the gate. Aye. Aye. Aye. Aye. Look, if she doesn’t win, then there’s like six. That can cause I have no clue. So those are the races where I either single the horse I think is going to win or I pass the sequence. Okay. Fair enough. And before we get to our discussion of the Louisiana Derby, I do want to underline something JK said before our man Benny South street, back over at, in the money podcast.com and he put up trip notes on every runner in these four steaks.
We’re talking about, you can go through that and look at his thoughts in detail, some good stuff from Benny as always. Check it out. You can also follow him on Twitter. I think it’s at B underscore South street. I don’t know if you can check that for me. J K a at some point, but uh, people should be following Benny.
He’s putting out some good stuff. He’s got a great perspective. It’s uh, it is B South street. And before we start talking about this race, I’m just going to, Hey, look, I hate to be like the tease guy, but he does put in a lot of work. So I want people to read it. I don’t want to give away when he wrote, he called the horse in.
This race and it’s not the favorite. So you need to read it to figure out what horse it is, but a re a horse in the Louisiana Derby. He called a freak and it’s not war unwell. Good stuff. Now, when you say I, we said two different Twitter handles. So, so as not to confuse the people. Okay. No, I think I put an underscore in there, but it’s just at B South skirt street.
No underscore check it out. Another true racetrack character, not unlike the man on the horn and we’ll start with him. Frank. What are your thoughts on the Louisiana Derby? Well, uh, I probably should have had my khakis on when we talked about the risen star, because Kanchan took me to school with country.
Huh? Oh, that won’t happen again. But, but, uh, I don’t think so. I took a little bit of a shot against world. Well, last time, um, because not because I didn’t think he could win because of his posts and I was trying to get cute. And went for the, uh, wall shorts. Um, with, uh leparoux and, uh, you know, I remember when I told my brother Patrick, I was going to that horse.
He responded with his normal response, which was, he’s got a nickname left. It starts with an F and it’s not funny.
So anyway, I could see this pace. Okay. In his eyes. When I told him I was taking a shot with , but I’ve learned my lesson and, uh, I got news for your war. Well, it’s doing much better than it was before the risen star. They’re all right. Wow. Wow. That’s that’s big info. Yeah, he is his last two works. His work on March 9th was just one of the best works I’ve seen.
It was only one-on-one and change, but it was just the way he did it. I mean, he, he sat behind the workmate and at the expo, uh, Declan Carol was on him. He tipped them out. And that was before that the Carol went them, tipped them out and just, I mean, glided. Cast his workmate, they made up like three lengths and it was three o’clock when he hit the wire.
But it was more impressive after the way he went. Well, I had him at 1228, the first eight after the wire and then 1282. And he couldn’t pull him up for a nice half mile. I mean, it was crazy. And that’s how we worked again. When he worked at 47, I wouldn’t change the next word. So he’s just, he’s really good.
And he’s going to get it. He makes his own truck cause he breaks. Good. And he’s going to sit. He’s relaxing. So he’s going to sit right off. Whoever wants to lead. If somebody else wants it, if he falls on it, I mean, God bless them. They’re in trouble, but he’s going to write right off. He’s going to get first run and he’s going to win nothing fancy here for me.
He’s just a better horse and he’s not, he’s not at the top of my Derby list. Well, I didn’t think he was even top light, but he’s getting better. And the more I see out there, he is a serious contender. I got a first Saturday, I got a few followups for you. Frank current price that I’ve seen on war of wills, 16 to one that’s compared to seven for a game winner, an eight for improbable over here of those three numbers, seven for game winner aid for improbable 16 for war of well, if I forced you to bet one of them, which one did you take?
Uh, Parents really interested in the answer right now, right now, right now. Would it be gangway? K that’s just right now, because I got some question marks about the distance for improbable. I want to see. The, uh, Arkansas w Webb Africa is the next amount and eighth Marines. Um, the one horse that I don’t have any questions about the distance is this horse Warwick, interesting of all the horses on the Derby trail, this was, will run all day.
He does not want to stop. Yeah. So that is not a bad price, the 16. And you do consider him a serious contender for the big one. It’s not a bad price, but he’s going to be close to that on Derby day anyway. Right. I mean, if you got two backwards in the race, And, and then you got to Belmont in the race. I mean, you know how this goes.
I mean, Kathy’s not going to be getting huge attention on a national scale with the, with the, you know, the unknowing press is going to be going for the baffled stories and all that stuff. So, I mean, you’re going to get 10 to 12 to one, even if he gallops here, you don’t see him as a single digit price. I, I don’t.
I mean, depending on what happens, the next couple of races, I could see where he could, could be, you know, 10 to one, at least on Derby day makes sense. But when at the game, when are, you know, all the hype he is going to get, he’d be over bet. I can see if he goes into the Derby is off a big effort in his next race.
He might be four and a half. So I that’s the only reason I not separate these horses that much on talent. I’m just guessing as to where they might be on Derby day. Price wise. I have one more question for you before we get to K’s view on the Louisiana Derby. Do you like anything to come with war of will here or will you just single him?
No, no, no, I don’t. Well, I made backups small with a couple of price horses, so I definitely think limonite going to improve up that effort. He had a rough trip, um, very down on the inside that day and was getting bounced around with Brian towards the unit side. I think he’ll improve. I think he’s about a horse than he showed that day, but, uh, by my standards has really been doing good.
Um, and I think that’s the Calhoun voice that’s improving. I put an improvement comment on his last race and he may be at a good spot. He’s not going to be too far back. Um, and I could see him tuck it in getting the cozy trip and country house. I mean a horse Jonathan light in the red, the star. He’s great.
I mean, that was a big effort. Uh, he’s got to figure out how to get out of the gate. I mean, that’s going to be, this is getting to be a bit of a habit. He’s got to leave this and he’s very great little ones. Yeah. Oh, I’m sorry. I stepped on you. I stepped on you there. Run those numbers one more time. Six over three, five and eight.
All right. J K, who’s going to win the Louisiana Derby. And I agree. Yeah. I mean, I, I wanted to get creative here. I think wore will. And he’s a horse. He’s a, it’s tricky for me because, you know, I can often be fan boyish and fall in love with the favorites and the ones that annoys some of our friends, because they’re getting bath photos on Twitter.
I’ve fallen in love with those horses too. Um, And they don’t get as annoyed at me. Cause at least I have some handicapping principles behind the reasons I love them. War of wills, one that I’ve tried to hate, like all year. I mean, I’ve tried to hate, I mean, I didn’t w when he won that day on mandatory payout day at Churchill on a pick six mandatory payout, like I tried to fade the horse and he won.
I tried to beat him two times back. I tried to beat him last time. Um, I’ve watched his races again. Um, and, and Frank’s words are obviously even more encouraging them. I mean, I think he’s just really pretty good. And he’s going to keep, proving me wrong if I don’t get on board. The other thing about him when Frank said he’d run all day, I was noticing when I was looking at his stuff, I saw that a horse by the name of, uh, tactic kisses is a half day him.
And I was like, wait a second. How can taxes be a half to him? If they’re both three year old, like I’m so confused, what’s happening. And I realize it’s not the bill Mott horse that won the Tampa Bay Derby. It’s. Tack the kisses, a horse that Graham motion had that one at 13 for longs and 14 for long as in New York, uh, back in 2015, this horse will run all day long.
If he does not win the Derby, it’s not maybe because of the distance country house, obviously as a horse, it’s obvious underneath everyone saw the trouble. Last time. I think he’ll probably be over bet. Um, the kind of tricky price, horse, and I’m gonna use underneath his banket. I just always remember hearing that bank.
It was one of his athletes. It’s kind of good. Um, three year old, he had worked with long range toddy a few times at Oakland park, you know, at a completely crazy price with Iran taking back and doing that one run thing he’s done the last two years in the affiliate mayor sprint. I just feel like he could get a piece that one could be a forgotten price.
I’ll use bank and underneath war of will to win the race. All right. We just have a few minutes left. Frank. I want to give you the opportunity to run down a few more things that you like or pick a spot. You take it, take this question however you want to, but what else are we betting on Louisiana Derby day?
Um, so the race before the steaks, the, uh, the ninth race, which is the Louisiana bread, five and a half on the turf. Yes. Um, I’m going to get creative. I’ll give you a price in here. Um, I think that Roger Brown is going to clear this field and we’ll take a lot of catching. I put the race 12, nine, seven, uh, and, uh, the seven is up there in the West, in the Navy because I know that I just convinced that horse hates the slop.
I think you draw a line through that race and cut back, seem to do well. Uh, at fairgrounds. But, um, Roger Brown, I just see him clear from the outside posts and I think you’ll get some value there. I don’t think it would be the 12 to one morning line. I guess it’s more around eight, but I mean, um, uh, fleet ascent is five to one in this race.
I don’t get it. Why he mighty man is three to one and I can definitely understand Bonnie man winning, but he’s going to have to negotiate a lot of traffic. And I’m thinking from the outside draw that Roger Brown puts the hammer down. Clears when lion win and the other speed horses in here and just goes on about his business.
Sounds like very, a shrewd analysis. Any other spots on this card you’re willing to tell us about from here? You still have some work to do? No. Um, I was looking at the seventh race. I’ll give another one maybe about. Uh, I had the right four, three, eight rock on kitten, obviously, uh, that, and I that’s something I would want everybody.
So the rails came down today. I don’t know if anybody saw turf racing in the last two days at fairgrounds, but it was comical rails were out at 22 feet. And the further you went to the outside again, when the rails are up. The better off you were. They were real seriously. Nobody was nobody that has any brains was within six tests.
So the real yesterday, um, and down, and when they did that last, um, but the resident store, I don’t know if you remember it, but it was a macgiolla source on the tariff. It was like 80 to one who just kept going. I had bet on rockin kitten that day. Uh, was it Rocky and kinda rock on kid? Raekwon kitten. Um, and it looked, I was counting my money at nine 11 and he got up even with him at the eighth pole in this 80 to one shot draws back on the inside and beats me and that horse is the horse has beat me, has come back to run twice and it’s been like ease nothing.
So I know the track area and what the rails down. So I pay attention to how the tracks playing today to get an idea of how to turf is playing tomorrow. That was one another one of the reasons. That was, I liked Roger Brown and that other guy’s side. So I thought it’d be cleared and, and got over it. Just be gone.
But anyway, I’m a get cute in there and I’m going to box three, four and eight. Um, Merlin song is getting a ride. A change is getting blinkers and has changed his sexual orientation off of this race. How do you like that? I’ve never quite heard it put that way, but I suppose it works. We’ll we’ll, we’ll keep that one in mind.
Well, you know, I mean, we’re in that age where you don’t have to specify agendas, washing horses, head, right? Anything else on this undercard at fairgrounds Frank, before I get you into trouble? No, I think I’m good. I think, I think that’s about, they got the xAPI races early, um, in the first race, I’d give a long look to the two first time stoners.
Uh, the Sam David, who knock a little louder and sip Riano the 12th with the Cory. Linery. Rotten for a little known outfit. You may see some money show up on those two. And, uh, the second race looks chunky, five and seven. But it looks like a good day of racing. I’m going to be out there. I can’t wait. No place.
I’d rather be fantastic stuff. Frank, thank you so much for your time today. Thanks also to Jonathan. Kenshin want to mention one more time that today’s show was brought to you by black type thoroughbreds. For more information about getting involved in race, horse ownership, checkout black type tb.com. And we look forward to another appearance coming soon on the show from Jake, Ballis a black type as well as the event we’re going to do together on the Friday night at Keeneland.
I also want to put in a quick shout out for our friends at the thoroughbred retirement foundation and also. 10 strike racing. This show has been a production of in the money media. I’m Peter Thomas foreign, a towel. We will be back next Tuesday, recapping all the events of this weekend until then may you win all your photos?