Loaded show. Special guests Paul LoDuca and At the Races’ Stephen Molyneux. First up, Paul LoDuca joins to talk about his life in racing, baseball’s Opening Day, and Florida Derby. Then PTF and JK go over graded stakes at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. Finally, we get a detailed look at the Dubai card from form expert Stephen Molyneux. Plus, JK sweats the sweet 16.
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***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains errors and inaccuracies. ***
Hello and welcome to the, in the money players podcast. This is show number 28. It is Tuesday, March 28th. Baseball’s opening day. I’m your host, Peter Thomas foreign, a towel back with you still out in port Washington, long Island. Not too far from. The site of Citi field. I still want to call it chase stadium though half the time when I say it.
And we’ve got a really special show for you today, a couple of special guests joining in, and of course our usual co-host, I will start by introducing him. He is calling in from the planet, Texas. You know him. You love him. He’s the people’s champion. Jonathan Kenshin JK what’s up. Well, I’ll tell you what these night shows are a little bit tricky, right?
Because it’s in approved adult beverage time. It’s like if I drank at nine in the morning, we normally re record it’s a little bit weird. So if I say a bad word, I apologize ahead of time. I’m also going to go ahead and admit to you that I have a lot of money on Tennessee. And a lot of different situations.
The game is on. If I’m not paying attention, we might have to pause. Cause I’m a little bit caught up in the action. There’s usually not action happening when we’re recording the show. So this is going to be a whole new thing. We’ll see how it all unfolds. Spoken a man who doesn’t watch enough European racing.
That’s all I’ll say about our usual morning recording sessions, but believe me, JK. If you make a mistake, I’m absolutely leaving it in that’s half the fun.
All right, let’s move on right away and introduce our first guest on the show. He is here to talk about his life in racing. He’s here to talk about baseball opening day, and he’s here to offer some thoughts a little bit later on the Florida Derby. I am talking about New York Mets. Great. Paula Duca Paul, how are you today?
Well, I’m doing well, man, you should be my age. I don’t know about. Great. But you were on the, you were on the all-star team a whole bunch of times and you had some big moments and some big situations. I, you know, I stand by here today. I really do. I do. Excellent. Well, Paul, how far back do you go with horse racing?
When did you get into it in the first place? Well, I started way back, probably seven, eight years old. My dad used to speak in to the racetrack, um, you know, cut right out of school. He was the PE teacher, um, at our grade school. And then we would go to turf paradise. I was born in New York. We moved up to Arizona when I was, uh, uh, young.
And so, um, turf paradise was my first kind of action. And, um, and then we would go over to a place called Max’s. Um, which was an OTB OTBs were in Arizona were very popular and they had all the dog racing. So I actually cut my teeth learning how to bet the dog, because, you know, there were eight dog fields or seven doc feels easy.
He couldn’t really go more than that. They, they introduced the nine dog at one point. Um, and then, and then it just blossomed from there. Um, uh, It, it really took off when my dad started owning horses and I was like 12 or 13 and I got to go on the backside and see that they really did have different personalities.
They really were athletes. Um, it really loved their job. And, um, there was horses never mean there was horses ever nice. There’s passive aggressive, just like every other athlete. And I think that’s what fascinated me at a young age. And, um, To see those horses on the backside and to see him work out in the morning was always the best thing for me to go to my room with my dad at like five, six in the morning and watch him workout.
Paul, you mentioned your dad is a handicapper. Um, I’ve talked about my dad on the show a few times. If we, me and my dad played in a handicapping contest together 20 times, I’d beat him 21 times. Right. He just hasn’t he just, the guy that’s betting his address. Are you a better handicapper than your father?
Is your father? Does he, does he got some game? A little bit. No he’s got game. I learned a lot of my angles from him. Um, he, you know, he grew up going to aqueduct as a kid. And so. He, he, he knows different angles, um, um, that I I’ve learned from him. And he’s now to the point where he, he asked for my picks and he takes that six, what he does now, Jonathan is crazy.
He’ll take like seven or eight different guys that he, that he respects. Um, and he’ll look at their picks now. And then he’ll put in his picks what he likes. And then if they all match up, he says they never win. We’ll go with the odd one. That’s usually he says he catches these kind of 69 and 80, and they’re like a hundred something dollar horse doing that when all the experts pick one or, well, you know, one horse and then he likes another horse and boom.
So. No, that’s the way it is. You know, sometimes when all of us like one horse, we’re all seeing something the same and that sometimes could be fool’s gold on paper. Yeah, that’s right. You’ve got to Zig when the market is going to zag and vice versa and there probably is more signal in the sharp. Players opinion that isn’t shared than the one that is shared across the board.
I think it’s a very sharp way of looking at the world. Paul, I want to talk to you about your experience as an athlete. And if you think as this is the case with some other, uh, Athletic professional athletes we’ve talked to on the show and around the show about how they have sort of a special for the horses themselves, because of being an athlete and seeing how hard they compete and respecting the effort that they put out time in and time again, out on the road.
Do you feel a bond like that with the horses or are you more just appreciate them as a horse player? Like the rest of us? Um, uh, a little bit of both. I appreciate what goes on on the backside having to do it. My dad made me do it like one summer. I was, you know, hot walking horses and doing some stuff. So I’d been on the backside and you really do appreciate it.
You appreciate the athletes. Um, you appreciate the jockeys a lot more too, and you realize how unbelievable kind of athletes they are. Um, And, um, you realize that you can’t do it. I realized that at a pretty young age, like. You get a lot of athletes that are super athletes that say they can do this. They could do that.
No, you can’t. I can’t do your taxes. I can hit a baseball. I can’t, you know what I mean? I can’t ride, uh, improbable. Uh, the next time he runs, I can hit a baseball. Okay. God put me on this earth. He had a baseball. So, you know, I’ve learned where, where my, you know, everything and I just horse racing to me, like you said, Made me appreciate it more because they are athletes and, um, and the guys that are on top of them, I think are even better athletes.
I think that’s a fair point. And sometimes underappreciated in our analysis is how hard that job is in so many. Different respects. I mean, I imagine the answer to this one is fairly obvious, but when you look at those fellow athletes on the back of the horses and with an ambulance, chasing them around, when they go to do their job, I imagine you have a special appreciation for the danger, as well as the split second, the decision-making skill.
These guys have. Yeah, listen, we all have our issues with Jostens. We cause we gamble. It’s a gambling sport. We struggle with guys that, Hey, maybe can’t ride and do this and that, but the bottom line is, is there’s no off season. You know, I used to catch 140 150 games and be wiped out for a month. So I remember angel Cordero one time called me a wimp, basically saying, you know, there’s no off season for these guys.
They got to keep a certain weight. Um, um, each day, um, I didn’t have to do that. They can go out and eat and eat steak and go get drunk every single night. And then they had seven mounts the next day. And then. Boom, boom, boom. So you get an appreciation when you’ve listened to something like that, and then you start covering it and you’re like, wow, I’m not here covering these things.
Five days a week. These guys are riding these horses eight times a day. You have to be in peak physical shape, um, and then repeat and do it over. And if you want to get them out, you got to get up in the morning. Um, if you’re not an established jockey. So, um, Minor leagues was tough, but I can’t imagine it be much tougher, um, than it is to be a jockey because, uh, the means, uh, to be a young jockey are not a lot of money compared to, to the, to the older guys, the gap between the guys that make a lot of money in the gap to make, make no money is a lot in racing.
Yeah, that’s absolutely fair. While we’re on the topic of jockeys. I wasn’t planning on this conversation, but it works out well. I was talking to one of our friends, Paul Sean Borman, uh, Pete and I are really close with he’s a professional horseplayer and he called me yesterday and we were talking about.
A question I’ve never really answered before, until he asked me, is what, what is it that actually makes a jockey good? Like, like, why is Jose Good? Why is Mike Good? Why? And, and I, and I wanted to get your guys’ take on it and then I’ll give my kind of angle. But whoever wants to go first, Pete or Paul, what, what is it that actually, what do we mean by what makes these writers good?
And what’s the separation between a Mike Smith and, uh, And, uh, Jimmy so-and-so, that’s writing it, uh, at, uh, so-and-so park, you know, whatever. Um, you want me to go first? I’ll do you take the first swing here? Um, I think it’s in every level. Jonathan, it’s the no panic, I think, uh, that’s number one. Uh, I watch a lot of guys that, that I thought I was better than make it to the big leagues before me.
I also saw maybe a hundred guys that didn’t make it to the big leagues. Um, that were better than me. And the one thing constant was it didn’t have it upstairs. Um, they always had the panic. I can honestly say, I mean maybe once or twice, I was really nervous at home plate. You gotta be able to block things out.
You gotta be able to have a short-term memory. You gotta have a certain tick in your mind. Um, that can block that out. And number two, you have to have to step on the throat mentality. And I think being a jockey, he’s gotta be even tougher because. You know, I played in a team sport. These guys. Now I’ve got to go back into the locker room yet sort of rooting for each other yet.
Not sort of rooting for each other. Cause maybe they want the Mount on that horse. Honestly, I, I like to really know what goes through their minds when other horses like, you know, like say like Mike Smith writes for Baffert on the regular level and then a guy blows a ride on a bathroom horse, his bikes, sit in there and go, Oh, I’m going to get them out next time.
You know that that’s gotta be like a different. Atmosphere in any locker room than any other pro locker room. You know what I mean? So, um, know that would be my, my take on it. You know, there’s so much to it and I’ve never thought about this before the first type of things that. Pop in my mind, or just the amount of skill that’s involved in having the clock in the head and to be able to make these strategic decisions in real time while also having the physical skill.
I think the physical skill probably is shared a bit more between the good average riders and the Mike Smith’s of the world. I think what might separate them. Is is that those extra skills of the, the clock in the head and the strategic thinking in real time, but I don’t really know JK what’s your take on it?
Well, I’m going to start with an angel cord arrow grow quote that Paul mentioned angel angel. I asked him, uh, not this question, but it’s a question along these lines. He settled on a 10 race card. The S there would be seven winners that would happen no matter who in the room was riding them in three of them, the rider made the difference.
And so I think that’s a fair assessment, you know, we get so worked up and bent out of shape and want to give people credit or give them blame. I think that’s a very interesting perspective to look at it. As three of, three of the equine athletes were going to, I mean, some of the Equinox athletes we’re going to do what they were going to do and either walk either way had nothing to do who was sitting on that.
All right. Yeah. I think that’s fair. It’s fair. Because if you think about it once a day, you get a ride where you’re like, I thought I got a bit of rivalry with, so that’s just you alone. What do you bet on? So yeah, I think that that’s probably right. Yeah. Hmm. So the other part of it is AI. I think that there’s a one, a, a one B and a two that lay out what makes a great jockey.
I think the one a is the paper preparation. Do you understand how the race unfolds from a P P standpoint? Do you, did you look at the paper? Do you have a higher level understanding of what the paper is telling you? That’s that’s one, a one B is. When the bomb started going off and like Mike Tyson said, when someone punches you in the mouth and DePaul’s point too, in the note, the known panic in the middle of the race, do you make the correct adjustments?
Are you Javier? Castillano on city of light when he broke inside and then he took out and ended up getting a perfect trip. Stalking trip. We’ll see how good Javier is this weekend when he has to make similar decisions on a hidden scroll from the inside. And then to me, the two is the physicality of it, the athleticism, the hands, the finish, that whole thing.
It’s just to me, it’s one, a one B and two, or what make a great jockey and all the guys I can think of that are great. Happened to make those good decisions more often than they don’t that’s about right. It’s very interesting idea for further exploration. You mentioned that story coming from our friend, Sean Borman, Sean, a good guy, but a reds fan, which always, always makes me a little bit, uh, always makes me a little bit nervous though.
Actually, they seem like they’re going to be okay this year, Paul, while we have you here, got to take the opportunity to talk a little bit about. Baseball opening day. What does it mean to you as a player, as a fan, a player? I mean, it’s, it’s something that you always, or you never forget, you always loved, uh, he wanted to get out of spring training.
Um, Um, I think the thing you take out of it is that you’re zero and zero. There’s like five or six teams. Let’s be honest. I can win the world series this year, but when you come out, it’s pretty draining your coaches, get you so hyped up and so pumped up, you truly believe, um, that you, uh, you’ve got a shot until you probably get 25 30 games into the season and is like, Especially what happened with the Marlins.
It is the one day that, you know, your stadium is going to be full and excited and the fans are going to be in your, in your corner. So, um, opening day always meant a lot to me because like, I was always felt like I was bused to be on the field. So every time I made an opening day and I made 10 of them, um, I, I was proud of them.
So, and they’re always very festive and. And like you said, you know, the fans are the ones that pay your salary and opening days is always a huge thing for them too, you know? Oh, it’s super exciting. That is for sure. How involved are you these days with baseball? Do you watch a lot of games? Are you, you mean what, what’s your rooting?
I mean, I can guess some of this from your Twitter, but what’s your routing situation? Like how much do you follow. Well, I said, I do dream foundation stone Dodgers. I do for them. I’m an, I’m a met fan. I grew up a met fan, obviously played for them. I split time in New York, obviously with naira and I do stuff for the accident network.
So I do break down games. Um, from a betting perspective sound with Jonathan. Uh, I need Florida. State’s both are on an uphill battle right now. Um, but I bet you to put the other team funder. So, uh, yeah, I like the action. Just like anything else on other sports, but. Still most of my, my flow or my is going to go towards the pony.
Here’s a loaded question for you. Uh I’m somebody who spent a lot of time overseas and the connection between gambling and the popular sporting life is so. Rich over there. I never bought the idea that gambling was a threat to modern sports in the USA with as much money as there is to be made. Um, these days by players just playing the game on the square.
Do you think there’s anything to worry about from an integrity point of view with pro sports in the USA, given the proliferation of sports betting going on in 2019? No. I mean, some of the things that guys are saying are just absolutely ridiculous. Plus like you got guys say, no, you’re gonna have guys betting a hundred thousand on a free throw.
First of all, there’s no sports book that would ever change it. If you’re a real gambler, um, you know exactly. Um, these a F games, which probably, I think the league is going on business from what I heard from inside source. Um, you couldn’t get more than 500 on those games in Vegas. So like, um, some of these people are making just stupid acquisitions because they know nothing about gambling.
It pretty soon. You know, in about, I would say another year, year and a half, two years, when everything everything’s legalized in most of these States, you’re going to be able to play at American idol. You’re going to be able to play and then people are going to be tweeting out, Oh, this is stupid. You can bet a hundred thousand on American idol.
No, you’re not. You’re not going to be able to, for people that want to pay $20, $10 have a little fun and you’re right. Like. We found one thing that we’ve taxed in the U S so we can’t figure out anything else. And it’s called alcohol and it’s killed more people than anything else. So you’re telling me betting is going to kill people.
So find a way to tax it. Let’s get it done. People love to gamble because if not, they’re going to find a way to gamble. Anyway, everybody has to find everybody who has it, another guy that the find a way to gamble. So, um, But what, what people are saying about the amounts of money that are going to be transferred is ridiculous.
That’s not going to happen. You’re not going to be able to walk up to a sports book and you’d bet a hundred thousand dollars on a game, unless you a football game or a football game, unless you’re in Vegas, unless you’ve got that kind of clout, unless you’ve got the money right in front of you. So, uh, just like I hate people that just need to stay in their lanes.
I’m not commenting about Donald Trump. I’m not commenting about politics. Then, you know what you don’t comment about horse racing and don’t comment about cam. I like it. I like the strength of the opinions. Of course, much easier. What I happen to agree with them when it comes to looking at, when it comes to handicapping sports versus handicapping horses, how are they, how are they related to you?
Well, it’s all about figuring out a puzzle. That’s what I always loved about horseracing was, you know, you try to figure out, okay, where is this horse can sit. Where’s this horse going to sit? Can I get a price here? Can I get a price here? And I think that’s where it equates the same. You try to get the best value that you can.
Um, in sports, the best number that you can get it at. Um, you try to look where the public is at, um, and go the other way. Sometimes the public and horse racing is where you want to go, or you’ll look at the board and go, wow. Where’s this money coming from, um, on a horse that you might have liked a little bit.
You also might go, why is this money coming on this horse? This horse got no shot and you’re loving every bit of it. Um, so it’s just like anything else. Um, more times than not there’s buildings in Vegas because in sports. So you want to play probably against the public. Um, and sometimes when steam does come on, good trainers.
Um, you want to bet with the public with horses so it can go either way. Um, but to me, I like to bet my money on, on more of my money on horses, because I get odds. You have to sweat out these games for 20 minutes. What 18 year old kids, um, in your home budget and half the money, actually, you’re not your lane vigor.
So I try to penetrate the one shot. Your name, why I many years ago gave up the NCAA tournament as a betting vehicle gentlemen, and as I watch you both sweat, I I’m doing, it’s doing nothing to make me regret that, uh, that rare, good life decision that I made. I’m going to let you get back to sweating that game in a minute, Paul.
But before we let you go, I do want to get your thoughts on the Florida Derby this weekend. I think JK and I are going to agree on who we like in the race. Hoping we maybe get a dissenting opinion from you. Where did you land in this one? Well, I thought it was an interesting race in another tough post position.
You have Jonathan hit on the head with hidden scroll. What’s going to happen there, you know, is he, um, gonna run off again? Is he gonna, um, be able to settle and you know, what can a horse learn from what three, four weeks or so? So, um, I thought Claire, Avanir got such a good trip. I don’t think he can carve out that same trip from, I think he’s in the nine posts.
If I’m not mistaken. Um, you know, Harvey Wallbanger keeps on getting no respect. He’s written great races at every single racetrack. And it seems like the taste doesn’t matter. Last time they went 40, 60 change, and he came home in the Holy bull when they broke his and they went 49 and change. Um, and he won.
So. You know, it’s, it’s very, very difficult to go with hidden scroll because he’ll probably get down, get down again. The workouts again, he supposedly has been working out unreal. So I don’t, I actually don’t love somebody, but I’m going to play Harvey Wallbanger second and third in the race and key about three or four horses on top.
I might put him on top, but I do think hidden scroll is the most talented. So I think Matt will have him ready. Sometimes when you give up on mud horses, He, he that’s when they explode. And I think he draws a better position than some of his other horses and the horses to the outside of him or, okay. So I’ll land on hidden scrolls lightly, but I’m gonna put a lot of horses on top and get Harvey Wallbanger because they just think the horse gets no respect.
And if I’m getting 15 to one in the morning line, Horse never really runs a bad race. And I think he ever runs second or third in it. I liked that approach. I mean, so often whether it’s you in the fine work you do on the Fox sports show or us on a podcast, there’s such a pressure to pick the winner and give who’s your pick, but it’s honestly more valuable to the audience.
To give an idea in a race and the idea of getting a horse, that’s going to be 15 or 20, somewhere up into the number. Even if you can’t make him your quote unquote, top pick, that’s still super valuable info. And we thank you for it, Paul and we thank you for your time here tonight on opening day of baseball, NCAA tournament, lots of stuff going on, you took time out of your busy schedule and we appreciate it.
And we’d love to have you back on soon to talk more. Lots of meat left on the bone here. And, uh, we’ll catch up with you soon. My friend, I appreciate it. And since you’ve been on the podcast, Tennessee’s only it’s cut it down. And so was Florida state. So we’re doing better. Let’s go. Well, the worst part about betting sports is you got to do math the whole day, 53 minus 41.
It’s 12. It’s just awful. Math is the worst. All right. You guys. Thanks for having me. Thank you. How fun was that? J K a super nice guy, great insights, and, uh, very glad to get somebody on the podcast. Who’s not just gonna, he did end up picking hidden scroll, but he didn’t just pick, hidden scroll the way I think we’re probably going to in a little bit, we gotta, we gotta, we gotta get him back on.
Producers hit a three. Okay. We got to
dial him back up. He can just sit there and tell him to put it on mute and just sit there. We got to get them back on the car. Oh my goodness. I had no idea. We effect, we really affect the universe on this show. I, I had a biggest head already. Just kidding, Tennessee, just hit a three and got fouled. You can stay on.
All right. You got you. I don’t know how you’re going to do this handicapping. We have to do cause we have to be focused here and roll through. Cause we do have, and I should have plugged this earlier. We have a special guest coming in to go in detail over the Dubai races. So that’s going to be a half an hour segment.
At the end of the show with Steven Molyneux, who is a presenter over in Dubai and also, uh, the form expert on Dubai for the, at the races website. But before we get to that, let’s talk about the Florida Derby, uh, the Florida Derby card, I should say, well, how do you want to do this? How much of these racers do you want to talk about?
You were such a good host. I thought you were about to go right to the Florida Derby, a great transition. Falling off, would they hit to the C just hit another shot and everything’s going well, right now, let’s go forward and dirty. You want to do it in reverse order? We can do that. Well, let’s just go Florida Derby.
Then we’ll hop back to the first greatest steak at, at, uh, we’ll go back and you make a strange producer, but it’ll work. You know, speaking of producing, we should also mention that this show brought to you by our friends at black type thoroughbreds. For more information about race, horse ownership, check out black type tb.com.
And are we ready to make this announcement about next Friday night? Is it official? Yeah, it’s official. I mean, it’s official voice. Your voice went up about three Okta’s. There it’s a visual, it’s like talking to a munchkin all of a sudden, but we’re, let’s just do it. And if it doesn’t work out, we’ll apologize.
Later. Opening weekend of Keeneland Friday night after the races podcast of event, co-sponsored with Keene Linde, and you’re going to be hearing a lot more about them. We’ll save all the details on that. Until the early week show, but we’re going to be doing some special Keeneland content during the three weeks of the meet.
And we’re going to kick it all off with a party at Bell’s in downtown Lexington. Do you know the address J K or the approximate location? Yeah, it’s around the corner from the village idiot. Well, there you go. It’s like downtown, downtown, like it’s like, you know, in the heat of the battle, yo bells will be the spot.
We are going to have Jake ballasts of black type thoroughbreds. There’s the tie in Mike Maloney. We’ll probably have a handful of books on hand. If you want to get a signed copy of bedding with an edge. We’re going to see exactly what the program is. If nothing else, we’re going to spend 15, 20 minutes and we’re going to go over strongest opinions on the Saturday card.
If the vibe is right, if we have the crowd, we might do a little bit of general Keane, Linde, uh, meet preview material, and, uh, remembered starting next week. We’re going to be doing some special podcasts all about certain days at Keeneland, including a meat preview on there. Okay. That’s out of the way, had to get all that important information out there to the listeners.
Before I forgot our thoughts on the Florida Derby. I like hidden scroll. I think hidden scroll is going to be absolutely hammered. Looking at the UK betting markets. I was hoping we might sneak a little bit of a price away. It doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. I’m sticking with them. I went back and looked again to try to see if I could go another way.
I can’t get away from this horse. JK it’s hidden scroll for me. I don’t know if he’s going to wire them. I don’t know if he’s going to get his position going forward and let somebody else go to the lead. I trust Javier to make the right decision. I trust bill Mott to have this horse ready. Your thoughts?
I love hiddens girl. Um, Here’s here for a couple. I’m gonna give you two reasons that we’ll move on to where we got a lot of stuff going on. Time-wise anyways. Right? So hidden scrolls time form us early pacemakers. If you’re a time form us person, one 66 and one 40 early. Okay. That’s that’s first. That’s how fast he went in the last race.
The other horses that people are going to give you are bourbon, war and code of honor. Both of those horses came from way out of it. And if you look at the time form pates projector, do you know who’s sitting second in the Florida Derby, according to the time form paste projector. Who’s that code of honor.
No, he’s not. He’s going to be way back there. None of these horses are going to catch them hidden scrolls in a Gallup one by five. I, if I can get alive to this horse and the pick six, I’ll be very happy. All right. I like the confidence. It’s making me feel a little bit better. Did you not think that we might get a hint of a price here before?
Uh, some of this real time information started coming in about how he was being priced in Europe in the morning line and all that stuff. Well, I mean, you know, we, I was texting you, what am I going to get nine to five? And then I was like, wait a second, maybe better. Two to one, five to, to look. I mean, bourbon, war’s going to take money.
Uh, I had an individual text me today that said that they were considering a thousand dollars to win on either hidden scroll or bourbon war bourbon Wars, and I’d take money. A maximum security is going to take money. Very funny name a code of honor is going to take money. I’m leaving that alone. There’s just a lot of people that are going to take money and already Wallbanger, you know, want to prep down there, he’ll take a dollar or two.
I just, I feel like enough people will be against hidden scroll at the prices that he’s going to be flashing at. That a lot of people will pass and he could drift up to be a two to one type horse. I’m thinking maybe two to one will be the final number nine to five worst case scenario. I don’t think it will be less than that.
Do you? I think you’re probably about on the money. A nine to five, I think feels, feels about the direction that we’re going right now. We’ll we’ll see. We’ll know more. I was hoping I could go on my app, the racist column this week and see bookies with him at seven to two and just say, Hey, people unload.
I’m still probably going to tip him even at the twos you can get now. But I, again, in, in my heart of hearts, I was hoping for a little more, but I’m not going to cut off my nose to spite my face. That’s what my opinion is. That’s where my money is going. And I’m looking forward to that opportunity. On Saturday night, Gulf stream park mile producer, J K.
Do you want to go all the way back to race four? We can probably do this one in about 12 seconds and then move it on to the graded stakes later in the card. 12 seconds. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, principal with Prince lucky. Wow. Okay. That’s not how I was envisioning. We’ve used the 12 seconds, but it works.
I did the horse can’t lose. Right. I mean, it looks very impossible to hire me too fast. Yeah, he’s too tactical. He’s too. Well-trained it’s too small of a field and there’s no one else in there that can be pace. Pace, advantage. Yeah. I mean, that’s the kicker, right? Um, little bit of fun information. Benny South street.
Who will be a guest on the show? Multiple people. DM-ing me texting me, tweeting me. When’s Benny going to be on the show. We’re working on it. And you’re not even going to believe the stories this guy has. I haven’t even scratched the surface about the night I played wing, man, when he tried to pick up Swedish royalty, true story, there’s more.
Great true stories from Benny sass street. You’re going to hear them all in the next few weeks, but Benny is going to do notes for the six races in the mandatory payout. So that’ll be a nice bonus. You can check that out on in the money podcast.com. The next race we’re going to talk about is part of that sequence, I think, or is it before it race eight, the Gulf stream park Oaks.
When does this thing start talking about doing math? There’s like 17 races. When does the pick six start? Well, maybe add five stakes races on the day. They’re only using three of them in the pick six. Gotcha. So we’re looking, we’re looking at starting in race nine then I suppose. Um, let’s talk about race eight anyway, because it’s the Gulf stream park.
Oh, could be an interesting pointer for Kentucky in a few weeks time. Um, I didn’t have a super strong opinion here. I landed on cookie dough who just looked like she’s getting good. And off that, a nice run in the devoted Dale where eventually it didn’t quite work out, but fits on figures. I like the outside draw for the speed horse.
I don’t know if she’s going to make the lead or Dunbar road. I’m not sure it matters for my opinion. I still think she’s going to offer a little bit more value than this Chad Brown horse that ran once and posted an okay figure. But I just feel like it’s sure to be over bet Dunbar road, I’m going with cookie dough.
What did you think? Yeah, I mean, I’m kind of glad that this race isn’t in the sequence because I feel like I would have to use like three horses here. And I just, it’s like three horses that I just don’t have a strong opinion on. So I’m kind of glad it’s not in the seat, although I kind of made like a indirect make fun of them for not using this.
Right. Um, I’ll be rooting like, heck for point of honor, George Weaver, a huge fan of George Weaver and was talked about on the show before. So I won’t go down that road again. Dunbar road is gonna be over bet. Figure it wasn’t that fast. One by eight. Those are the types of horses I want to, I want to play against.
Um, in fact, I think Dunbar road was, uh, Was, uh, was a famous bet. Runner in the world was looking for a couple of horseplays to, to help his credit at the casino. He hangs out. Gave him Dunbar road on that day, when a horse was even money in one by eight to show. So people say J K doesn’t do charity. He does charity.
I like cookie dough too. I drink more during the shows. I liked this. I liked you got to drink more during the shows, man, I don’t, I don’t know what’s wrong. Well, half way through what’s going on in the basketball. Um, 65 to 53 and the guy from Purdue just missed tinsy ball 10 minutes left. And that’s it.
That’s okay. Just got Moneyline Tennessee. So eight, a lot of, a lot of, a lot of brackets with Tennessee involved. Gotcha. All right. We’re going to move on to race 13. It is the pan American. We’re looking at a grade two on turf. You’re starting this time. Where, who does Mike maker have in here? I’m just kidding.
Um, you know, I thought village King was interesting. I thought he ran, you know. Okay, good. And on the yielding surface then came back in the Mac. Uh, I can never say that Mac D immediate, what does that go with? Mac D. Mac D ran much better than their zoo alphas is, has won back-to-back races. He’s clearly got, you know, kind of got the class thing going on here.
Highland sky’s decided he’ll never win a race again. Um, he had decided that once before, if you’ll remember and then beat us the next day, but go on. Yeah, I’ll get him. I’ll give him that again. Yeah. I’m going to just go with the, I’m going to go with Todd here with village King. I think this horse Johnny should have him forwardly placed.
He usually puts him in the race. Um, they’re, you know, they’re, they’re going a little bit longer than they went last time. I liked village King in here. I mean, I do always like the, uh, you know, the maker situation, but bigger picture. Um, although you, it impressive the figure wasn’t that fast at Houston and he kind of likes it down there and.
Um, uh, solely Oh, is just kind of continued to let me down last three starts I’ve I’ve, I’ve always kinda been a fan of his even since, um, I believe he was with, uh, Graham before, and I was always a fan of that horse. He was when he was out in California, but, uh, I’m going to land on village King being tactically placed a little bit forward.
And like he was last time. Definitely a wire possibility. And I thought about going that way, but I landed on a horse. I pretty much decided I was going to bet seconds after the trip he received in the McKnight on yielding turf can Kennesaw. I think if he runs back to those races on from, and gets a better go around there.
The pace scenario. Isn’t great for them. I think it’s not a bad idea to back up, uh, have something with this one running second and third, probably a little more likely to come up a little bit short as he seems want to do, but I still think there would be value there at seven to two. And I think that’s the one that I’m going to land on.
And I, I, the horse can win, but it’s just one, I’d be careful to try to back up. It is possible. He has a little hang in him as well, but still the way that I want to go in there in a race where I find it hard to get too stuck into anybody. And we already talked about the Florida Derby. So we don’t have to do that again.
But JK three graded stakes races out at Santa Anita. This weekend, we sorta talked about this a little bit. The other day, when you expressed a little bit of trepidation about betting in these early Santa Anita cards with the new rules out there regarding the whip and Lasix, but have you changed your mind at all?
Did you look at these races? Do you have any thoughts you want to share? Well, I have haven’t, I’ve emailed it to myself. Uh, the, the, kind of the CHR B report, the, the summary of what happened today, from what I understand, the WIP situation has been put on a 45 day comment period. So they’ve kind of outlawed the, I mean, not excuse me, outlined the, the rules of that, uh, or the proposed rules, but they’re not going to put those into effect for the next.
That’s 45 days. So the sticks going to still be happening, come, uh, come Saturday. And I was interested to talk about it, right, because it will pause on it, but I just want to say out loud, no stick, who does that favor? And in my opinion, the stick is used most at the end of the race. And at the end of the race, the horses that are forward are typically more tired than the ones that are from behind.
So I would think that the front runners would, would, would, would suffer from the loss of the whip. We won’t have to worry about that for the next 45 days. But with that being said, you said Lasix is going to be an issue. They are going to be running on, on five seasons that attend CCS. When you look at race five, the grade one, Frank kill row.
One of the things is it stuck out to me is not so much. I’m going to tell you who to bet on, but a horse that I think there’s an opportunity to fade and that’s river boy. And if you look really deep and river boys, Past performance. His first three races were overseas. Ran without Lasix did not win. Comes over here, turns into a freak and his favorite on Kentucky Derby day and the American turf, maybe the five, maybe the less, the five cc’s less is going to affect the river Boyne.
If you’re inclined to play the early pick five or to get in San Anita, he’s a horse. I would try to beat in a horse. That’s going to take money. I think that’s a very interesting angle. We’ll see how much difference those five cc’s make. That could be an interesting pointer in that direction. Ray six at Santa Anita is the San Carlos.
Did you look at this one? I glanced, um, you know, acts, man’s been a horse that I’ve always kind of followed and chased a little bit, but a horse that I’ve always been interested in. He, when he was with Peter Miller was St. Joe Bay. I don’t remember where I heard this racetrack rumor, but the day that, that that’s when, when Roy H kind of had his coming out party, I believe that happened at Belmont.
Um, it, at that time, I remember someone telling me that Peter Miller thought St. Joe Bay was better. I think that says a lot about the talent that he has. Obviously John sadden from racing have done a lot of great things together at a price. I’ll take a look at St. Joe, but I need to dive in a little bit deeper, see the workout reports.
And to be honest with you, I love San Anita and I’m going to support seeing Anita because of the people that, um, regardless of what happens, but. I want to see the workout report, obviously, but at the same time, I just, I don’t know what’s going to happen. I mean, these horses are running on it on, on half of the Lasix doses that they run on.
You know, you saw what happened and what, what this whole Lasix can be when you saw what happened in Florida. I’m sorry, not in Florida in the fairgrounds with, uh, with Serengeti impres, it’s a serious situation. So I can’t be reaching to too hard in these races until I know all these horses are going to run off of a Lasix or on the lighter load of Lasix.
Anything in the Santa Ana, the other graded stake, which goes as Ray seven, or should we move on to a quick Dubai rundown? I didn’t have much to say, um, about, uh, the Santa Anna. The only thing I’ll say is, and it’s not nearly as is. Obvious, but Alyssia is world who debuted yeah. France and did not run with Lasix.
She won that day. She comes back to the U S and wins first time. So I don’t know what there is about that, but for whatever reason, they brought her to the U S whether it was for ground or whether it was maybe she did bleed a little bit that day, even though she won, she was just better than them. And, uh, uh, as a two year old.
So maybe you can look against there, but I would tread lightly in that race and then onto the beholder mile. You know, I think that I’ve faded. Cellucor. Um, it Churchill, cause I just didn’t think she was going to be ready. She came back and has run two good races since then. Molly’s freedom’s gonna take a bunch of money.
I don’t want any horse at Santa Anita with the new rules at four to five. So I would take a look at seller court, but like I said, I’m treading lightly, but if you feel inclined to participate at Santa Anita, uh, that’s where I would lean in those spots. Things are going crazy in horse racing. When JK is worried about betting the four to five shots folks.
I hope you were on mute and weren’t offended by my joke. Yeah. I was actually thinking about hanging up. Excellent. All right. Good stuff from you. Let’s talk about Maidan. We’ve got Stephen Molyneux form expert from Dubai coming on in just a minute to go in detail on these races. So there’s no obligation to talk about anything you don’t want to JK.
You can just go ahead and point points to a few spots. Um, and maybe as we go through all, all do the same, just cause I’ve looked at these a lot more since the prerecorded interview with Steven earlier in the day in race to the Godolphin mile, the favorite looked super tough to me, but I was going to land on cold front, especially if you have the opportunity to bet in their markets where you’re getting nine to one on this tactical runner, did you have a selection in the Godolphin mile?
I had an anti in the Godolphin mile. Who is it? Your horse. Why, what don’t you like about culprit? I think he’s going to be over bet if you’re playing, you know, if you’re playing in a, in a, in a pool where Americans are and he’s going to be older bet to where he should be time for him, U S doesn’t have him as fast as, uh, as the favorite who I’m not going to try to say his name.
It’s not that hard. I’m going to be . Yeah, boom. I’m going to call them the faucet new foster and not going to be as fast as move fossa. We just saw, you just saw the lion King yesterday, actually. Isn’t that the dad in the lion King. It is that’s been possible. Yeah. I was thinking how much you and Austin enjoy that on a future trip to New York?
It was honestly an awesome show. We had such a great day out parent and I in the, in the theater there. And, uh, we, we, we should go check it out. But anyway, that is not the horse’s name. I will allow you to call the horse that. I would definitely take a look in our tote pool. I mean, if that’s a horse who you’re getting odds against on definitely the most likely winner and as for cold front, I mean, yeah.
I was talking about markets where I can lock in nine to one. I’m not interested in the horse had half that I had nothing on the two mile race. Uh, the four, uh, race for story liberal. He he’s he’s he’s run well at, at, at, uh, in the straight going six and at five at Del Mar he’s one, six and a half down the Hill.
He won the breeders’ cup at five and a half. He won the breeders’ cup at five at Del Mar. So racehorse. Yeah, he’s a race horse. Um, yeah, it’s blue point is going to be three to five. Then I would get involved a little stormy liberal. I’ll be rooting like, heck yeah. For caribou club and our buddy Craig Berneke.
And uh, and I got to show you my new, fresh jacket. I’ll tell you the jacket story. I’ll take a picture. You, you told it to me, but you haven’t told the listeners. You’re going to have to tell us was looking on social media one day. It’s like a Dave Chappelle thing. I want to Dave Chappelle’s friends was sitting at like dinner and he had on this Nike pullover.
That was the eye. It was identical to the Glen Hill farm silks. So I took a picture of it and I sent it to Craig and, uh, him and his, him and his wife ordered a bunch. And he gave me one when I was at Lexington last weekend. So I’ll be wearing that proudly on Saturday more. That’s fantastic. There’s a narrative and Stephen starts getting into it a little bit later about the draw being bad for stormy liberal, but at the prices he’s available in the UK.
That compensates for it. And I’m just not a big blue point guy. Um, in terms of his past form, I feel like his best work has come when he had everything, his own way. Perfect trips, et cetera. Uh, shouldn’t be stormy liberals. Shouldn’t be that many times the price of blue point. That is my quick thought on that one.
Did you have anything in the UAE Derby? Not really. I I’ll I’ll save it, um, for our guests who I thought plus plus K or plus K parfait was interesting. And that’s strictly out of my respect for Frank Magalia, who we’ve had on the show. A couple of times, if you remember Frank. Use the horse. I think he got to pick the horse in the risen star when he was six to one that day, um, different circumstances.
He gets Jose. Now he’s over there. He’s 15 to one, you know, he’s beaten 20 years six. The last two starts if he’s the race horse that Frank thought he wasn’t, Frank’s not into this, uh, to, to give you the 15 to one shocker so that you follow him on Twitter. It doesn’t even have a Twitter. He’s talking about betting real money.
And that’s why I’m interested in this horse at a big price. You know, use them fairly. It sounds like this divine image is a filly. Correct? I think she appears to be pretty loaded, but, uh, I’ll get the, for a little look for Brendan Walsh. He’s the most likely winner, but I wouldn’t. Uh, and we talk about this a little bit later, but if I’m a V Beethoven to me, shouldn’t be do the double digit odds.
He is in the UK right now. The breeding is okay for dirt. The talent is there. I love to see them just send the horse. I don’t know that they will. That’s not how he was written in the prep, but it worked out well for team. Cool. More last year, this is a horse who’s been headstrong and I think could show a new dimension.
Anyway. That’s another one where I don’t know if there’ll be a better able number on the tote, but if you can lock in the price that he is over there, I think that’s where there’s some value. Let’s talk about the Shaheen. Roy H the news came in overnight. I actually learned it recording with Steven at about 5:00 AM Eastern time this morning that Roy H wasn’t going to be competing.
I was going to go with X, Y jet. Anyway, just hoping that despite the fact that it seems like a dual is inevitable here inside position horses run. Twice there and run and run. Second. I was thinking maybe the third time would be the charm. JK, your thoughts? Uh, like X, Y gen a lot. He’s gonna be the other half of my, uh, exact the box.
I’m not an exact the boxer, but I’m only gonna use two horses. So I’m, I’m okay with that. He’s one half of an X, Y Jedi runs he’s run second and Dubai twice. So there’s nothing about Dubai. He doesn’t like he just got beat by good horses two times in a row. I shouldn’t have given up the rails probably shouldn’t have given up there.
Sorry. Probably shouldn’t have given up the rail last year either. But anyway, so here’s a question I’m gonna ask you to see if you remember this. We didn’t talk about this before. Do you remember why one of our friends and who that friend was, did not like Imperial hint May 5th at Churchill downs. Do you remember the reason why.
It’s it’s sounding so familiar. Uh, is it, was it, uh, was it a Sean Borman? Was it a Sean Borman situation? Based on the closing sectionals, the horse had run the previous time at Tampa. It was at Tampa and you’re right. As you nailed it all, Shawn didn’t like how he was coming into the race. And he ended up running kind of poorly based, but that might’ve been slopped or whatever.
Then he comes back and he reels off three. And he’s the favorite going into the Breeder’s cup sprint. His last race, he got beaten five. He was third, but where did that race take place? Tampa, once again? I just don’t think he likes it down there. That’s my, that’s what I’m gonna bet that he doesn’t like it.
I love that he’s down inside. Jose’s going to hustle them away from their X. Y Jet’s going to clear he’s in the set right there, you know, sitting second in the pocket, but not in the pocket because the promise was fulfilled my goal a little bit. So maybe it’ll be in the pocket. I ended the rail can typically be good on, on Dubai world cup day.
I just think it’s those two horses, Imperial hint, and X, Y jet don’t get me wrong. Imperial hint might not be a horse anymore. And he could just not run well, but I’m going to bet that he is going to run well based on the fact that he ran poorly last time. Cause he doesn’t like Tampa. There are all kinds of horizontal exotics on this card.
One other, I would heavily consider throwing in into the mix. There would be drafted who could get the, I’m not saying he’s, he’s definitely not mind your biscuits, but he could get that type of trip. He could be the beneficiary. If it does melt down, if all these things hook up too early. So for your exotic backups, that’s just one other I wanted to mention there.
I’m going to guess. You don’t have a lot on the turf races, but feel free to chime in. I was trying to think of something clever to say about not wanting to participate on the green, but I couldn’t really think of anything. So, um, no, I have nothing. I didn’t even look, I will give a shit out to magic wand.
Always thought she wanted to go. Left-handed on firmer ground, ran a Corker last time when, who knows how fit she could have been in the middle of winter after being in Ireland and now with the race under her belt. To me looks poised to move forward in a race where the favorites are alive, but I don’t think there are any library than she is.
And she’s a multiple of their price available at six to one right now. We’ll see what happens on the tote, but I like her quite a bit JK and I think she’ll go better on firmer ground. She did not like that ground. I think she acted. In spite of it last time. And in spite of not particularly being fit, she might be really, really good.
Oh, it doesn’t hurt that the form’s been franked with bricks and mortar coming back to win as well. And now the big one, JK lots of old favorites in here. My official bet that I gave out on the final Furlong podcast, where I had the pleasure of appearing today. I just gave him going to vary each way where you can lock in that 12 or 15 to one, and then get a quarter of the odds for him to finish.
In the first three, I liked that he’s drawn inside should be racing on the good part of the track. I see a scenario where. If the bias has revealed itself to be an existence, they just go too fast and going to Vera comes away once again with a little piece in a big race, I could not pick our boy. I could.
I tried. I wanted to pick Yoshida. I would certainly use Yoshida in my horizontals. I just can’t get over the fact that he was even money in the, in running bedding, turning in, in the breeders’ cup classic. And to me, I know there’s other stories about jockey leaving him too much to do, et cetera. I just, he didn’t see out the trip.
He’s never seen out the trip going longer than a mile and an eighth. I’m not going to make him my pick. I ain’t going to be losing to him. You know that. Are you going with our boy? Are you going with somebody else? No, I’m going to use him. Right. Well, first of all, there’s a funny word. I’ve heard a lot of people that don’t like the word moist.
Yeah. People, I don’t mind it, but I’ve heard that certain people have an antipathy for that person. Well, well, so the two horses that I like, I’m going to throw out their last race what’d you win which, which was on moist surface, right? Whether it’s got a very, I was running the slop against city of light or whether it was, uh, Yoshida running into bricks and mortar on the Pegasus turf.
If you go back one race, I just learned this word. Both of them ran a quarter. Corker. Yeah. Is a good one. Did I say that or did you learn it from somebody else that was making fun of him hanging out with too many English people? What can I tell you? Yeah, I agree with your Yoshida idea. He had to be in plenty of speed to close into going a mile and a quarter on the dirt.
I think he’s a superior. I think he’s a great horse. Um, I worry that that, that distance might actually be a problem for him, but I still think he’s live in here. I, I really do believe that he’s got a shot, but the, the horse down the most interested in his gun of era, I just think he’s a super cool horse.
Uh, he’s going to save a lot of ground he’s in a tip out and he’s gonna come running late the mile and a quarter is not a problem for him. Um, and I think he’s gonna run well, I don’t want seeking the soul. Who, who, who, who was kind of down on the inside when that was the place that you wanted to be in the last race.
And he got that he had that trouble, but to me that was a little superficial thunder. Snow is going to be over bet. Uh, I don’t want the Phoenix, thoroughbred horses. Obviously had Axelrod acts where I was basically ease last time. Um, I don’t think Audible’s that great. I don’t know enough about the European horses.
So if, if one of them is really good and you hear that later in the show, but I’m going to try to hook up Gunawirra underneath. I think he’s super loud. Usually the JK handicapping study is a no closer zone, so that’s an interesting selection, right? I have, let us go way too long. JK. We’ve almost done an hour and we still have a half an hour left in the show.
It’s going to be a long one folks, but we’re getting it up early. Hopefully you have a chance to listen on both halves of your commute tomorrow or something. Any final thoughts from UGK before we bring in Steven? Uh, give me a couple seconds. Tennessee is up one. You’re a sick, sick individual, and that’s why we love you.
Okay. We are now going to bring in from Dubai, firstname.lastname@example.org Stephen Molyneux. And now I’d like to welcome to the, in the money players podcast. Stephen Molyneux. How are you today? My friend. I’m very good. Thanks. How are you? Excellent. It’s early morning here in the United States, which means it is something like the middle of the afternoon.
And Dubai, if I have my time zones, right. Yeah, we’ve just gone one o’clock I’ve had plenty of early mornings myself this week, so I know how you feel, but it’s been great to get up and look at all these international horses on the track from, from five o’clock in the morning onwards. And I hopefully can give you a bit of a stare as to some winners from Wilcox.
We appreciate that very much before we get into the form. I think a lot of our listeners might be unfamiliar with your work. I know you primarily from the, at the races website, which is a great under the radar in the USA way of keeping up on form all around the world, especially in the UK and Ireland, but also, uh, France, Dubai, Japan, you name it.
They’ve got it. I know you’re also a presenter over there in Dubai. Give us a little bit about your background. Yeah. When I, I worked as a handicapper at a time for them in the UK for a good 15 years, really, which is where I got into the, into the Dubai aspects of it. Um, moved over to Dubai about five years ago.
And as you say, been working as a presenter on the Dubai racing channel, which is the only English speaking channel over here in Dubai. So we’ve got a good monopoly on the market, a good insight into the local stables. And of course, When the internationals come over for? Well cut. We were there on the money, hopefully every time.
And through that, um, got associations with, as you say, at the races is presenting some, I would call them tips. Hopefully we, I try and steer them in the right direction. And the another little side liner, I also book rides for a couple of jockeys out here. So we’ve got Richie Mullen. And, uh, Royston French who first got rides in the Dubai world cup itself and Andrei debris as well.
He’s got three on the end of the car. So I’ve got a fairly big family to pay for pizza. So I’ve got to keep busy. That’s fantastic. On another show, when we have more time, we’ll talk about that. What, what we would call in the States that jockey agenting piece of it. I know a bunch of jockey agents here.
Yeah. In the States and they’re some of the shrewdest judges of form that I know. So I’m sure there’s some interesting information to be gleaned from that, but with all these races to talk about, I think we should pivot and dive right in. We’ll start with the good dolphin mile. It goes as a race too.
That’ll be eight 15 in the morning, Eastern time on Saturday. Do you have a view in this one, Steven? Well is the point. You didn’t want to go for rice one that can hail classic for the pure bred Arabian stuff. What I was building myself well, but we’ll, we’ll, we’ll go with your wishes and stick to the good old food mile.
Um, just thought we’ve cheese early on in the card. Perhaps for a reason, it doesn’t have the per speeds of some of the lights or races. I actually quite liked the American challenge in here, and I’ll not profess to be, um, sort of a big education on what the likes of true timber and cold front have, uh, have achieved.
But I just really like the weight. They’ve handled themselves in the morning. Um, truth timbers, uh, hailing from the Karen MacLaughlin yard. And he’s, you know, Karen’s got a strong association with Dubai having spent many a year here in the 1990s, he got 426 winners under his belt in Dubai. So he knows the sort of horse to bring over here and treat them, but have.
Finished well huddled in the pack six, but I don’t think me the sloppy track nor the distance of 800 meter 1800 meters. Thank you. Parking suited him. So I think he’s got solid chance. I like the gate speed of cold front, which is a really important over here. He’s shown on his last piece starts how to win from a white gate, which is going to be important.
On Saturday as he’ll break from Saul 12, suddenly the American challenge is very strong here up against the locals and the locals are headed by who is trained by Doug Watson. Incidentally, Doug Watson was Karen McLaughlins, uh, former assistant. So it’s a master against people. He feels like in this Godolphin mile, but he’s been very impressive in winning his last two.
Um, questions slightly. What have you achieved in beating good Curry, great name. That is by 10 months on his most recent stuff. But, uh, I meant dissolve very much going in the right way. And sometimes we’ll look at horses age, you know, six, seven year olds. We’ve got plans to deal the whole he’s running the nest, but, you know, by the Bali, he’s very much a light mature.
I can see why he’s favorite, but you know, my motto pizza would be to try and get these short price favorite beaten. And I think I’m not just saying it because I’m talking to an American. I do quite like the American challenge of truth in button cold from here. Well, we’ve got a shot there. It sounds like in the Godolphin mile, I would agree that they do seem to have claims in that spot.
I mean, when it comes to dirt racing, the same way we on this show anyway, tend to prefer European the top level European term for shipping to this country or the East coast. USA turf horses shipping to the West coast when it comes to dirt, giving a little bit of an extra look to the USA contingent.
Certainly not the worst way to go. Let’s move on to the Dubai gold cup, which goes as race three. And I will, we will loop back if you want to talk about the Arabians real quick, I didn’t want to scream at the spring that one on you. Let’s talk about the gold cup first, which goes as race three. We got some, a couple of favorites in here at the couple of horses at the low end of the odd spectrum.
Where are you going to gravitate? Well, it’s a cracking rice simply because see in the developing cut winner in the form of cross cancer, running hair, but interviewed Freddy had yesterday, who’s one of the most lights, injury trainers in Europe, and you’ll know he’s exploits, of course, bringing horses to America.
He said in a very understated way, the Melbourne cup, it is merely a handicap. So across campus, you know, he’s, he’s got a set up in this, that group to contact, but he’s. Yeah. And to play devil’s advocate with Freddie had, I would never wish to disagree with him, but Chris cross counted those half a strong group, right form from England.
He beat the, uh, the Darby second DXB comfortably in the group three at Goodwill. He was second 12 Persian who will line up as favorite for the great one shaman classic. He was second, just the head behind. And one of the main St. Leger trials that you’ll class year. So even if the Melbourne cup was only a handicap, um, he did have plenty of strong form in the book going into it.
So he’s aware that he fired his stablemate it’s Bellini has really progressed over here. He’s won his last two runs since stepping up in trips. So those two horses, um, predictably told to get off in, um, Cool. The winds we caught not mentioned him because I have spoken about Freddie had, he doesn’t send holes.
He’s out here for the fun of it. Um, he’s a progressive horse. He wouldn’t the pre to contract contract over long shot. Um, on Ark weekend last weekend, last year, he saw the strongest rights as a rule, uh, that, that particular context, but he had a nice prep Ashanti recently he’s three from eight completely unexposed or so it’s a, it’s a fascinating race.
They’re about as, when it, for the last few years. Sadly, he’s not here representing France or this time around, but in call the winds across counter and it’s believe me, we’ve got three horses who pretty much dominated this race. I’d be a bit surprised if the winner did emerge, didn’t emerge from those three.
If there is to be an each way play hoping one of them bombs out, then it probably would be Prince of Aron whose form is not too dissimilar. Um, having been third in the Melbourne cup, he was false. In the mile and a half prep race on super Saturday behind all Persian. And I could see Prince of Aaron running a big race for Charlie fellows.
Who’s a trainer. You’ll be hearing a lot from over the next few years. Excellent stuff concept. You mentioned there that gets mentioned all the time informed study around the world. Not as much in the USA that I just want to make sure listeners are familiar with the idea of being unexposed to me, the way I define it in, when I talk about it in USA terms is.
A horse that we still don’t know how good he or she is. There’s unlimited potential as opposed to a more exposed runner, which I use to describe a horse who we know exactly what they are, the improvement has likely already happened. Do you think that’s a good working definition? Exactly the way that I would define it.
Yeah. And I could even use an exposed, labeling a horse. That’s had 20 ruins, but actually they only have two over a trip, but he could still be better at is Bellini, not quite happy with the 20 runs, but he’s had eight, only two of them I’ve come out of the sorta distance he runs at on Saturdays. So he’s.
Unexposed to this trip, but yeah, exactly how you said it. We don’t quite know the limit of that potential under the conditions that were presented with the Saturday. Good stuff. Let’s go on to race for the Outlaws sprint we’re into group one territory now. And we’ve got a really fun group assembled, including a favorite to many in the USA in stormy liberal, but, uh, according to the odds line, they’re all running to beat blue point.
What do you see happening here? Yeah, I believe it’s just been so impressive, not just here in Dubai this year, but ever really, since he was a three-year old, Charlie Appleby has helped blue blue point in the highest of esteem on naturally, they try to sort of point him towards a classic, which would involve running over as five or 1600 meters or a mile, but there was no way he was ever going to stay.
You have the same speed and I very quickly realized he would be a sprinter. Sunfire he’s, he’s not quite being the, the bomb proof sprinter. He’s not being the sprinter. That’s turned up, um, sort of every grace dance, every dance and run to his very best. For example, he was only midfield in the Darley July cup in the market last July, which is considered to be the most prestigious of the sprints in the UK site.
He still has to prove that he can go bang, bang, bang, if you like. But I think as a five-year old, um, his physique suggests that he’s going to be one of those late maturing. So, so these two wins out made on so far. This year they’ve been opportunistic. They’ve been up against horses that you’d fully expect him to beat, but you just, can’t not be impressed by the manner in which he’s done it.
Um, he’s got a bit to, he’s got a, sort of a points approved Dubai world cup day. Cause obviously 12 months ago he was scratched down at the start because of a trick lift most and he’s knows, but that emanated from an incident, uh, actually on the way to the races, Charlie Appleby said he got stirred up in the horse box and he kind of read up and banged his head and it might’ve been, um, as a result, the withdrawal as a result of that.
So they’ve taken great measures. To Kate, the tool. It’s very common controls before race a doubt. We’ll see him parade before he’ll go straight down to the start. Um, but he’s, as these all suggest as, as you’ve suggested, he’s the spend that contender in this, there will be each way options because as I said, he’s still got to go and prove that he can run race in rice out, but, uh, he he’s potentially the stall, um, star of the, of good often, certainly on Saturday’s cards.
Those of us who have the opportunity to look to do a little international arbitrage. This race might be a place where maybe you look for blue point in a USA tote pool. If you have the option of locking in stormy liberal at something along the lines of. Of a seven to one. I haven’t looked at odds checker this morning, but see what kind of price you can get fixed on him?
I mean, I, I certainly think he goes there with valid claims based on his form and figures. Have you had a chance to clap eyes on stormy liberal at all? Yeah. I’ve seen him every morning and he’s looked very calm, very relaxed. He’s been here before, as you say, he knows. He knows the drill at a very consistent sprinter in any Breeder’s cup, sprint, winter coming over here, he’s automatically considered.
Um, you did run second to jungle cat last year. I put blue point, um, lens better than jungle cat. Um, but you can’t knock him out I suppose, as well. And negative for stolen liberal would be the draw install one, um, obviously in America that would, um, indicate he’s drawn on the inside, going around the band, but we’re dealing with the straight track here and just sometimes horses from those low Gates can be left a little bit isolated.
On that far side of the truck, they do tend to come more center to the near side, particularly when there’s been riding around, which I’m happy to report that have been today. Um, it just changes the track dynamic ever so slightly. So stall one would certainly be a negative for storm and liberal. And I probably want to be out in just a couple of points on top of that seven to one, simply because of the stall.
I think. That’s a great observation. Now you talk about the rain here. When we talk about rain and facing, it’s almost invariably a negative thing, we worry, Oh, the race might get switched off, et cetera. In Dubai, a little bit of rain. You’re just talking about keeping the turf from being too hard, keeping the sort of conditions that horses would be used to running on in other jurisdictions in the world.
Am I reading that right? Yeah, exactly. We’ve had a lot of rain. Don’t get me wrong since yesterday, lunchtime, Tuesday, lunchtime, but that rain will just negate the amount of, uh, natural irrigation that the, uh, uh, the clock of the coolest hair puts on the track. The weather forecast suggests it’s going to stay dry from now until the by world cup day.
It’s pretty hot out there as well already. It’s around 30 degrees Celsius. So look, I’ve mentioned the write-up perhaps shouldn’t have, because it’s not going to have any impact on the turf course. Um, com comes after that. I wouldn’t have saw it just as a rule school. One, regardless of the weather conditions, as almost seemed a negative this year.
Very interesting. The UAE Derby or Darby, I suppose we should say, goes as race fifth. Group two. Uh, this was of course the race where Mendelson made such an impact last year, running off the screen, which reminds me, I need to ask you about how the rail has been playing because thinking of Mendelssohn makes me think of how golden the rail was last year at this meeting and really through the whole carnival.
But do you expect we’ll have any horses coming out of here and going in a single digit price to the Kentucky Derby in a few weeks time? Well, I, if I did, I think they’d be going as a single figure price favorites or single premium figure price for the Kentucky naturally, because as we know how difficult it is for the Europeans to, to, uh, to go over there, ain’t no, Brian is often spaces that the UAE Darby.
Is he’s pointing to, uh, towards the Kentucky Dobby. If I’m Beethoven is his soul challenger in this, this year in Iran is automatically drawn to them. But I think as a bunch of the full team that goes to post here, um, I’d be amazed if we even really feel I can sucky Darby. Entrance to be brutally honest with you.
I didn’t see it. This is a classic crop up to scratch over here. Um, we’ve got several local rumors. We’ve got a few heading over from the States and perhaps you can answer a question from me whenever I see, um, a horse from America come over and run in the UAE Darby trial. I, I see it as an admission that they’re not good enough to get in the Kentucky Dobby.
In America, they have to come to Dubai and perhaps pick up a cheap within your in option for the Kentucky Derby. Is that fair? Am I being too harsh to the likes of Stubbins and the physician who are in this race, it’s definitely a speculative play for a horse who they. I think might have potential, but they don’t expect to be up to the challenge back here.
I think it’s a way to test them and see what they have and potentially get that automatic birth and live those Derby dreams. Get to do the walkover, all that exciting stuff. I think you’re on the money. Yeah. Well, I mean, that, that doesn’t mean to say please, to Paul sized, stubborn, stubborn has been really impressive in the morning on good enough to, to win this race because like I say, no standout contender.
Um, the local horse is actually comes down to, to get off in again in the Finley divine image. She’s by Scott daddy. Um, so she’s obviously bright to handle the surface and she’s taken to it. Well, her initial run, um, she didn’t look a little bit. Oh, let’s see on the surface, but he was just her second start.
But since then she’s landed the UAE and in DCL Bastakiya, which involved her taking on the boys and she beat them very comfortably that highlighted the limitations in the males over here that liked to walk in from the superior golden Jackie incidentally, all in by feeling flighty, syndicates. Uh, very, uh, you know, the Phoenix thoroughbreds very well from Dubai and they love to travel by horses.
So I wouldn’t lose or draw. You might well see the likes of walking thunder, golden jockey, where I’m in the superior state side sometime soon. So maybe keep an eye on those three. Sounds like a very good pointer as for how the dirt track has been playing. From what I’ve seen. It doesn’t seem like the overarching bias we saw last year, but it does still seem like the rails pretty good.
How, what would your assessment of it be? Yeah, that’s, that’s, that’s very fair. I think in any dirt race, you want to be as close to the front and as close as is humanly possible. But yeah, I mean last, last year, um, you’d almost describe it as lockable really. Wouldn’t be, um, I guess, well, We’ll come to that a bit more later on when we look at the claims, the thunder, snow winning a back to back world cup.
But yeah, we’ve seen it a lot. Farrah, I still don’t think he wants to get too far behind. Um, but no, um, uh, position. So the midfield, it’s not the negative. It certainly would have been 12 months ago. Yeah, I would say that track. Dictating the outcome of races. That’s how strong that bias was. Whereas, you know, maybe it’s worth a length or two.
Now a length can be a lifetime in a horse race. Of course, we’re not saying it’s insignificant, but it’s, it’s a little bit different than all you have to do in terms of your form studies, figure out who’s going to be on the front end in the inside and you, and then you have the winner. Uh, it doesn’t seem like it will be that bad.
All right. This bias could, Oh, I’m sorry. I stepped on you there. No, no, no. I was just like, totally agreeing with you. And I’d like to say that there’s not been a difference. The draw that you factor in, you do fracturing where a horse is going to be positioned, but you don’t automatically try and find which horse is going to lead.
And that leads you straight to the winner anymore. All right, let’s talk about the golden Shaheen group one. Action. The bias could come into play here such as it is. We’ve got Roy H we’ve got Imperial hint. We’ve got X, Y jet promises fulfilled strong USA contingent here. Well, I must say, unfortunately we no longer house Roy hates.
Cause he’s been, uh, he’s been withdrawn this morning and he’s been found to be lying, which I’m sure is the, I think the disappointment in America. Yeah, that’s a bummer. Uh, I mean he’s had issues all week. Um, unfortunately I think he, um, I mean, there’s been plenty of rumors going around, um, by all accounts, he knocked himself, uh, getting off the, off the floats on arrival here in Dubai and he had a couple of more.
On the track, but he never really did anything other than just a, um, uh, a steady stroll round. Really? He was expected to breeze on Wednesday. He’d not cited at all. And yeah, my official confirmation came through this morning that Roy, unfortunately, wouldn’t be lining up in his absence. What do you think we’re looking at?
Well, I think X, Y jet, uh, I still sit in, the Americans are going to win this race. You know, that that’s so strong as you, as you. Well, not X Y jet. Um, he’s always wanting to buy as me. He’s 22nd hit twice most by Muara 2017. My job biscuits came from, uh, another parish to make it, um, another victory for him in the rice.
Last year and, uh, you know, he’s a horse, as you all know, that needs to be carefully managed nowadays. He’s only had three stops and since he’s a golden Jean run last year, a nice confidence booster in the mind stream last time, but he he’s just well equipped to cope with the demands of this rice. And whereas, um, perhaps a couple of the other Americans, Imperial hint.
You know, D-Day for him would have been pre this cup sprint, even if for him was pretty, just kept spreading. Seems to me that all, Hey, Navarro, he kind of leaves a little bit for Dubai and knowing that Dubai is the place where X, Y jet can shine. Um, the fact that Imperial hints on his inside promises fulfilled he’s right on his own side.
There’s going to be a bit of pressure there early. Um, but there’s not a whole set. I don’t think. In that such as Jordan sport, who we tried to match strides with 12 months ago, I think X, Y jet naturally has the legs on this field. And that might just prove to be that lens that you were talking about early on.
If you can get that lead, get the rail. Then I think he’s going to be a very tough horse to pack group one turf action takes center stage in Ray seven, the Dubai turf. Very interesting international cast of characters here. What’s your view? All whole life been on almondine because obviously she’s the star of attraction from Japan.
She’s six from seven. She’s a Philly’s triple crown winner. She’s a Japan record breaking silly. Um, so now this is her assay test. She’s out there around country. She’s having to travel, uh, for the first time, but she she’s the real star on the show up for the whole cause really? Um, she’s the affinity that could go and give Japan that at least it.
Success in the pre to lock the tree, come next October. So she’s a very strong fighter. She’s one of several very strong favorites. He’d say on the whole card, the local challenge, you’ve headed by dream capital. Who’s three from three at the carnival this year. He’s that late mature and saw that so many, a Frankl progeny seem to be these days.
He’s been gelded since he reappeared. And as I say, he’s gone. And when he’s three stops, since that in. Uh, group three, group two and grade one, and each run has seen him progress a good level of things. So the fact that he’s here, the fact that he’s on his own to the fact that he is progressing albeit a little bit later in life inside of him throw would have expected.
I think a dream capital is a very solid proposition for the home team, but I’ll also throw another Philly in that. I’m not saying that she’s a one horse race. For and died by any means, because I still think she’s got to go and prove it in a very highest level on an international stage, but they’ve lost.
She’s been there before she’s won the race. She was second last year and her run in Hong Kong in December persuaded connections to give her one more go. It had been stated she was going to retire. So I think she comes to Dubai again as a Philly or as a man. Now that knows what it takes. The wind here.
And I don’t think she’ll be far away. There’s a bit of each way value to be had in her, up against Solomon die for all that. I will be cheering on Alvin Dyer. We all want to see superstars at the end of the day. You don’t win. Sure. But you can always root for the story and bet your money with your, uh, with your head.
So that makes a lot of sense. People that was listed as a. Potentially pleasing 15 to one on the USA morning line. We’ll see if that price materializes come Saturday night, local time in Dubai noon Eastern on Saturday is the Shima classic as the group one parade. Continues some names here that will be very familiar to USA fans, including magic wand and hunting horn.
Both of whom who’ve run state side. The favorite is old Persian installed at eight to five on the morning line for Charlie Appleby. Who’s going to win this one, Steven. Well, I, I don’t wish to after time, slightly here pizza, but I did tip old Persian in the aforementioned out the races tipping column column at 10 to one, um, about a month ago.
So my position was with old Persians, pretty handy at this stage, as you say, he’s a. He’s much narrow the six to four Mark now. And that was on the back of him. Impressively winning a group two contest on super Saturday, the main trial for this race, the devices, the sea of gold, the form book would say he wouldn’t buy a short head, but I can promise you, you had a lot more in hand than that.
William Buick would have been kicking himself. Had you not won? He was locked up in a pocket for much of the straight, but I was really impressed. With the way, this horse knuckled down and quickened to get to racing history, racing, history lines up again, he’s sort of a folly prospect, you know, solid group, two group three holes.
No great potential. I don’t think to be winning this, but it gives you a good level of form. And I think old Persian would have been him comfortable. I’m again, in a similar scenario to cross counter his three year old campaign in England. Um, Charlie Appleby classically complained to me. He went to the army stuff, but I’m Charlie Appleby.
Trainees while he’s officially the world’s best trainer. If these international rankings with the belief, he’s only got six runners on Saturday’s card, he doesn’t run his horses. If he doesn’t think he can win the race. And I think old Persian, um, he’s almost my best bet of the day. Really. I know a little bit shorter price here, but around six to four 30 until eight, but I can always say that I picked him at tend to want it’s no problem.
You get that, uh, the, the emotional value of those tend to one public winners. It just, it just keeps giving doesn’t it. And for our purposes in USA exotics, there’s an opportunity to maybe turn that six to four, three to two, we would say here into more. So we appreciate that, uh, that steer to too, in that, in that one, uh, absolutely.
Let’s move on to the Dubai world cup, the featured race. Of the evening we’re into Saturday after now, 1240 Eastern time. I guess that means what’s that going to be seven 40 local time over there. Well it’s okay. Eight 40 was it it’ll probably feel never midnight by the time we get to raise nine, but yet eight 40 sociable enough so that we can enjoy the concert, which this year is Gwen Steffani, which, yeah, that’s excellent.
This would have been a good year to go. I got to one of these years, I’ll go to England for Cheltonham stick around and work a few nights on the channel. Right. And then take the train or take the train, take the plane and, and join you. And Pat Cummings in the crew over there in Dubai. I’d love to see it sounds great.
Yeah. I think you should definitely Mark that down for next March. Yep. No problem. What do you think is going to happen in this year’s Dubai world cup? Well, you know, I’ve gone round and round in this rice. We’ve got 13 runners. Um, I’m not sure I can dismiss too many quite easily. I’d probably rule out Katie brave from Japan.
Um, new trials is a local wholesale. I actually picked times he posts that 33 to one. I’ve gone off him slightly since his most recent runs that he’d beat, perhaps some of the ones. And that’s. The Korean who stole Kong as well. He’s probably got a lot to prove, but as the other nine or 10, you know, they’re all much of a muchness, which I think probably sums up the American debt.
Crop at the moment, over 2000 meters, they they’ve all got the potential to potentially beat each other. The likes of going to Vera or audible, um, Pavel seeking the solid he’s even got the two horses who are now based in Dubai grand Caskey, and that for rugby, throw them in there. They’re not serial grade one winners by any means.
Are they. No, there’s a lot of questions, more questions than answers. I think coming from the U S contingent this year, the one that I want to, like, I want to like Yoshida I questioned the mile and a quarter for the horse, but how’s he looking. He looks really well. And he was actually wet where my pin came down on in this race.
Um, on the one hand, you you’re quite excited by the fact that he’s unexposed on dirt. He’s only had two stops. Um, the flip side to that is Willie’s lack of experience on the CATSI mountain, this right. Put the fact that he’s drawn in installed 10, but yet he’s beaten Guevara in the Woodland at Saratoga.
Um, I suppose the trip would be a concern based on him finishing full in the Breeder’s cup classic. Um, and then ultimately soft turf would have been against them at Gulf stream in the Pegasus tough. But yeah, I really liked the way this sources being campaigns. Um, um, yeah, he was my selection again, nothing really solid the hot, well, we’ll definitely be chairing on North America and Richie Mullen.
Um, For those of you that don’t know Richard Muller and he’s based in Dubai and he’s based with the yard as he have been for many, a season, he’s a self-proclaimed journeyman jockey. Um, you know, if you went back to his base in England, he’d struggled to pick up a hundred rides in the whole season, but he comes out here.
He’s got a good system. Bible behind him. I think to have a welcome run up to him means a lot to have the winter while it will be a career defining moment for him. I’ve got no financial, um, whatsoever, um, riding on this for North America, but I just look to see which human and when it falls on the odds line North America, very well fancied when you’re looking at the local dirt races.
Or do you have speed figures that you have access to? Or are you going on the same form figures that the, that the world is no I’m yeah, I’m kind of, I’m pretty much the same that everyone else can see. This is not real speed figures. Must I must confess that my. Punting and sipping, if you want to call it that I don’t really have the time to delve as deeply as I perhaps would like.
Um, so I I’ve got nothing really to go on. Um, time-wise I know he’s a, uh, very useful horse when he can get out and dominate, which was. He’s a kid who’s hailing last year as well. Cut the, uh, Mr. Stock completely and couldn’t get to the league. But, uh, you know, he’s a horse speaking to people who do look at the sea figures on a professional basis.
You know, he can clock some pretty serious times and, uh, I know there’ll be badly a dry eye in the house. If North America can make all the running, he is a little bit, one dimensional. Uh, which brings in cap is on. I want he’s inside. He’s liking it to go forward. You saw thunder, snow, Michael been running last year.
So he’s got a break. Well, he’s got gait speed went on song, and I know there’s been plenty of work to ensure that what happened 12 months ago, history doesn’t repeat itself. So this is the time for North America. He’s a 70 year old. Um, um, you know, I could say it’d be delighted to see him win for Richard money.
All right. The technical tip is Yoshida. But, uh, the heart is riding with North America for you in the Dubai world cup. It sounds like that’s very much the case. Yeah. Yeah. Sometimes it was decided that I had got a rule of the hot, but I’ll be, I’ll definitely be chairing on North America. All right. I’ve kept you much longer than I said.
I was going to Steven. Thank you so much for your time today. Have a great night out there and let us know if you need anything from the USA. We owe you one. No problem, Peter. Anytime. Thank you very much. And that’s going to do it for this edition of the, in the money play podcast. I want to thank Jay. Kay.
I want to thank Paula Duka and I want to thank Steven Molyneux. Most of all, I want to thank all of you for listening and our role of sponsors. This show presented by black type thoroughbreds for more information about. Racehorse ownership go to black type tb.com. Also want to thank our friends at 10 strike racing.
And of course the thoroughbred retirement foundation. This show has been a production of in the money media in the money media’s business manager is drew Kotani I’m Peter Thomas foreign Itau. We will be back early next week. May you win all your photos?