Since no good deed goes unpunished around we thought that fresh off his awesome appearance for the Rebel Stakes we’d bring back Marshall Gramm of Ten Strike Racing to talk about Arkansas Derby Day. Plus, PTF and JK have several contest announcements, including their new partnership with Breeders’ Cup. Go to the Horseplayers.com website to learn more about opportunities to qualify for the Breeders’ Cup.
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***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains errors and inaccuracies. ***
We’ve got a great show for you today, but before we launch into it, just want to remind you to check out our partner black type thoroughbreds, great way to get involved in horse ownership and to get the thrill of owning what amounts to your own professional sports franchise through their auspices black type thoroughbreds managing partner is Jake Ballis.
You can learn a lot more about him and about black type thoroughbreds at black type TB.
You’re listening to the, in the money players podcast.
Hello and welcome to the, in the money players podcast. This is show number 32. We are recording it Wednesday night, April 10th. I’m Peter Thomas foreign, a towel back with you in the Brooklyn bunker once again, but not for long. It was Kentucky last weekend. It’s Tennessee tomorrow and Arkansas, this weekend as the magical mystery tour of these Derby preps continues on the show today.
We’ve got some really fun stuff for you, and we’re going to start off by bringing in the co-host of this program. He is in the planet, Texas. He is the people’s champion. He is Jonathan what’s up JK PDTs what’s the word I’m getting ready for this masters thing. Um, I make my first masters wager, but mostly because I don’t have anything to do tomorrow and Friday, so I need something to root for.
Um, and, uh, it’s always fun to, you know, when I first started coaching high school football, the youngest coach on the staff had was responsible for real mowing. The practice field, our head coach, um, was a great man, was loved having nice grass. And so we used to go out there with like a real mower and cut the grass every day on the weekend, someone had to come up there every day.
We cut the grass. So it was like a golf course. We, I mean, we had like perfect. Like short cut grass. And so when I turn on Augusta and I see like the grass there, it, uh, it gets me, gets me excited, especially I got a nice TV and HD. So I want to be watching a little bit of golf this weekend in between races things you didn’t know about Jonathan kitchen, if this whole a horseplayer slash pundit podcast host thing, doesn’t work out, he’s going to be a fine gardener.
Not that there’s anything wrong with being a gardener, but I just didn’t know you were obsessed with this kind of stuff. And what do you mean nothing’s going on in the next couple of days? We got aqueduct and keenly. I don’t know what you’re saying. Well, you know, and I don’t have any responsibilities in life is what I mean now.
That’s what I’m talking about. Those things always happen. I’m always participating in those. I’m focused more on, uh, Oh, I gotta do this, this, that, and this. I think it’s that you’re so good at multitasking. Only doing six things at once. Feels like you’re slacking and that there’s nothing going on. And I think the same can probably be said of our guest he’s here today to prove among other things that no good deed goes on punished when it comes to this show, he is a.
Expert when it comes to the economics of horse racing, he’s a professor at Rhodes college where I will have the opportunity to be a guest lecture tomorrow, really looking forward to that terrific success in contests as well with deep runs in both the NHC and the BCBC. Back-to-back not an easy thing to do.
I’m talking of course, about Marshall Graham Marshall, what’s going on. Well, I’m in my office. I’ve got my first exam for my horse racing class at the second, uh, second half of the semester class. It started in mid March. And so I’m preparing their exams. They’ll be rolling in at seven 30 for an exam that, uh, should keep them on their toes, uh, and, uh, uh, should be a good test of the material we’ve covered.
And, uh, Hopefully it will be a fun and challenge for them. And then tomorrow, of course, we have the privilege of having you Pete, as a guest speaker in my class, I’m very excited, uh, looking forward to the pearls of wisdom that you, uh, uh, you give to the young and eager minds, interested to learn more about our great sport.
No pressure or anything, but you know what I do relish this opportunity, not only as somebody who loves just talking about horse racing, meeting, young horse racing fans, with the chance to try to frame the game for them a little bit. I appreciate that opportunity, but I’m also as many of, you know, a frustrated academic myself.
So this is an opportunity to, to like take a little peek down the road, not traveled as it were. And I’m very grateful for the opportunity. Also super grateful. Marshall. To you and your partner in 10 strike racing, uh, clay Sanders for the opportunity to run that retweet contest last week, turns out that Rodney Clements and Wesley Mahann will be joining us at the party.
That’s going to be a lot of fun and another opportunity, I think, just to open up the circle of racing and our circle to a broader group of people. We’ve talked before. One of the things we can all do as racing fans is to try to introduce the game in the right way to people. You guys attend strike. I’ve done a fantastic job doing that.
I want to hear a little bit more about your interactions with other racing fans, whether it’s through 10 strike or some of the connections you’ve made and people you’ve maybe drawn into the game a little bit through your class. Well, uh, you know, first of all, to the, to the, uh, winners and the retweeters make sure to pack your long underwear and YouTube, it’s going to be, it’s gorgeous out today here, but, uh, it’s looking like the highest 58 and it’s going to be pretty nasty weather wise.
Uh, our tent is big and, uh, hopefully shelters us well from the wind and rain. Um, but yeah, through our partnership, 10 strike racing, uh, we have, uh, we’ve met so many people, uh, Especially from Arkansas who have, uh, you know, wanted the opportunity to learn more about the ownership part of the game, uh, to, to, uh, you know, participate in the game the small matter.
And we operate basically as a, you know, we’re not making any money off this clay and I both have our day jobs and we do it as an opportunity to maybe together, we could own a horse or two, a nice horse or two can claim a few horses. But if we get our friends together, Uh, we have an opportunity to buy into some nice horses and, uh, we’re very excited because we have two running on the card this weekend.
Uh, we have warriors charge, uh, you know, one reason I’m excited that you had me back on the pod. With last time I came on, warriors charged one, broke his maiden rain, a big number, 89, the 89 buyer. Uh, and he’s running in an other then on Friday, we actually, uh, we actually, he’s a Munnings and my favorite angle of all angles is Munnings and spikes town in the mud.
And so, uh, clay and I, you know, early in the week, we were thinking about, you know, given the rain come along, would we be crazy to go in the Arkansas Derby? Well cooler thoughts prevailed and we’re running on Friday, but we’re excited about that horse. And then we have Irish mischief of Philly with the, with a real punch or shot in the fantasy on Friday.
And we’re excited about both those horses in that our partners will be there to, uh, to join us, uh, and, uh, uh, join us there this weekend in our tent. And, uh, Um, again, we, we always are. We, uh, met a lot of people, uh, who have such passion for the game through, uh, through our ownership experience. You left out another member of 10 strike who likes Munnings in the mud.
Cause I actually saw her bet one blindly at fairgrounds and the horse won and that’s Clay’s wife. She she’ll she’ll bet she’ll better moneys in the mud as well, too. So a good thing, uh, you guys decided not to run on Saturday. I’m sure she would have emptied out the bank account. Yeah, well, I know I look, it’s our favorite angle.
It’s our favorite angle money despite 10 on the mud. And then when they get back on the draft datum a little bit, but it’s to. Anyway, maybe war warriors charges. We were hoping for rain on Friday night, Saturday, but, uh, but again, we’ll have to, uh, get, uh, work with the hand that was dealt. That’s right.
That’s how it goes. You mentioned that mud angle. Is that something you came up with anecdotally or do you have a data source that you mind to try to come up with those wet track breeding or turf breeding angles? Marshal? So in, in this case, it was, it was, it was the sort of a, you know, we noticed the patterns, we noticed it.
And then in looking at the data, you can see that it’s horses to jump up in the mud. They went at a higher rate, they run faster numbers and, uh, Um, and it doesn’t, it’s not, and they, they, their ROI is better as well. So it’s a thing that’s not totally caught on with the betters. And so I I’m almost to a blind bit of Munnings and spikes town when it rains.
And when it rains, I’m looking for a. I’m looking for those horses, uh, Tibet JK, you and I have talked about this idea off air, but I think it’s worth repeating or talking about it a little bit. And it’s, it’s basically free consulting to anybody out there who makes any type of performance figures. I feel like the weakness of the way a lot of people look at mud ratings or turf ratings.
Yeah. Is that they’re based on stats. How many starters versus how many wins? This is one area where I’d really love to see what happens to the figures that horses run. I would think that you’d look at Munnings or spites town and you’d see something like a plus 10 on average, they run better. Maybe that’s exaggerated.
Maybe it’s more like plus five, but it’s going to be a plus something when they move from a dry. Dirt to a wet dirt, just something that I would love to see out there in the world. And I’ll throw this one to JK. Do you think that idea would work and then we’ll get Marshall’s comment on it? I think it would work.
I mean, the people that I’ve talked to about it it’s, you know, it’s, I think it’s a programming, uh, issue, which most things are, it’s a, it’s an uphill battle when it comes to programming. But yeah, I just think it’s more significant. I I’m less concerned about. Um, you know, the example I’ve given, given him before is I’m less concerned about Bob Baffert being, you know, seven of 14, you know, adding blinkers to turns first time.
Right. I’m more concerned with how what’s the figure improvement. The average figure improvement for those seven winners or even all 14 of those horses that ran not just the seven winners, what’s the, what’s the figure improvement or the figure decline, uh, in those situations. I just think it’s a more powerful number for what we’re trying to accomplish.
There’s so many variables that come into those seven winners and those seven losers of the 14 that I, you know, mythically came up with. There’s so many variables that we th that you’re not available to see that I think influence that data point and that final number. And that’s why I’m always a little bit nervous to, to put too much stock into those.
What’s your take on that Marshall? I agree. I’m also interested in the ROI on it, those horses, uh, is it something that the public does not already know that’s not already priced in, so, you know, if you can get on something that the public doesn’t already know, then it presents an opportunity for you to take advantage of it.
And I, and I think that’s, you know, a lot of what we do and a lot of what I preach to my classes, you’re making small sample size decisions and determining what is. You know, what’s the signal and what’s the noise. What’s, what’s significant and what’s not. And, uh, and, and, and so in, in those, in those cases, you’ve got to make basically educated guesses, whether, uh, whether, you know, whether in the long run, when we have a full sample, it’s going to be a statistically different.
And again, often once we do have a full sample, it’s no longer, there’s no longer any, any, uh, uh, positive edge you have. You mentioned the signal in the noise makes me reminds me that one of these days, I got to go through the shoe boxes out in the unfinished part of the basement and find the old interview I did years ago with Nate silver, before anybody had heard of him.
And he was just a guy making money, playing poker online. But another stats question for you to follow that up. Marshall. How big of a believer are you in the concept of, uh, either impact, values or statistics that are corrected for the price that the horses are? Do you try to look deeper in either of those directions, as opposed to just looking at things like strike rate and ROI?
I mean, I’m more strike rate in ROI and figure improvement, uh, and sort of the relationship I don’t, uh, I don’t, um, I’m not, uh, So, I guess that’s a simple, short answers. Yeah. That’s absolutely not. It’s something, you know, I, something probably I should, you know, should investigate more, but, uh, um, you know, again, often, often once you, once you have a big enough sample size, a lot of those things, you know, the public already, already agreed.
I think that sounds right. I was just curious if it was something you’d considered and dismissed or hadn’t looked into as much. Some combination of both, right? I mean, they look, there’s so many different ways to, um, approach horse racing is that you’ve got to sort of synthesize and approach it the way that, that fits the best with the way that you handicap.
Right. And so, um, and so it’s a matter of prioritization and it’s, it’s very easy to sort of find new toys and have it, you know, change. Change too much the sort of core strategies that got you to where you were. So, you know, I’ve fallen victim to not, I need to do more investigating stats. Race lens is something I want to take a deeper look at.
Uh, uh, there are different approaches I would like to study more, but, uh, so now it’s just not big part of my game. Fair enough. J K you’re as good as anybody about incorporating new elements into your game. I want to hear you talk about that for a minute and how you like to, how and why you try to keep incorporating new things.
And if you’re ever tempted to just go back to the best day you ever had and try to do things exactly that way again. I mean, I actually think I probably learned it. Like I learned that I don’t know if it’s a trait or that, that, uh, that, uh, importance when I was, when I was coaching and like, you know, hearing stories of like bill Bellicheck going to visit.
Yeah. Chip Kelly and Oregon to learn more about, uh, uptempo stuff and going to all these coaching conventions and seeing all of these accomplished hall of fame type coaches who are still trying to gather as much information as they can. But because for a couple of reasons, one is that when a new product comes out, then it’s, it’s a leader in changing the game.
The people that I’m going to be betting against her using that situation. Right. I mean, so you have to have an understanding of it so that you can understand why people are doing what they’re doing. And then, and then the other part of it is like, I want to have every possible edge that I can, that I can digest, um, when I’m making decisions that put money on the line.
And so, um, I, I, I just, I just like to, to keep grabbing at things and most of the things that I’ve tried to add. I don’t often discard them, you know, I mean, six, seven years ago or whatever, it was six years ago, seven years ago when I started using time for them, you S I, I started using time for them. U S just like, I’ve kind of started using stats.
Raceland like just, you know, kind of a little bit just to supplement what I’m doing anyways. And now if you sent me to battle with one thing, I think I would probably want to go with time from us. Right. And so I just want to keep adding, keep. Piling on because a lot of times when you’re looking at races, you’re trying to make.
You’re trying to like make these last second decisions between one horse and another, you know, you’re trying to decide on Friday in the makers makers, uh, 46, if you’re going to, you know, if you like, if you’re looking for a speed horse, do you want heart for heart, heart? I mean, heart to heart or the, or the, the fairgrounds horse on the outside.
I’m going to forget his name now, but I’ll remember in a second. You know, or, and so I want to use as much information when you use the time form pace figures for both those horses to find out what happened. I want to look at the trip notes for both those horses, the workout reports for both of those horses.
I want to look at some stats stuff on the trainers, what days off and things like that. And try to decide if I can find a weakness in one of those two horses where I can toss one and use the other and, and gain a lot of equity. So I just want as much information as I can when I’m trying to make these hardest.
And you’re not worried about confusing your brain in the process. No, I don’t think my brain really does that. No, I don’t. I mean, I guess there’s a world in which the worst thing that can happen in that situation is you end up using two horses, but that, and maybe you should have, you know, you just had so much information in your brain.
You couldn’t separate them. But to me, that’s, I don’t want to separate them because I tried really hard and I couldn’t. So I don’t, I don’t feel like it, uh, it messes me up and don’t get me wrong. Look, I can handicap pick five and six minutes, like the rest of the day Jim’s out of here. Right? I mean, I can do that too.
I’ve seen that. I, yeah, we marshaled everyone at this on this call has, has done the Ford, the five minute pick five before. Um, and I hit those sometimes too. Annoyingly enough. Um, negative reinforcement. Exactly. I feel much better when I take my time, you know, I print the PPS on, or I put them in an iPad on Wednesday.
I kind of do a first pass through to get some ideas. Then I have my flight on Friday where I get through the deep dive and then Saturday morning I wake up and I, and I kind of revise everything and then scratch has come and I revise it again. Like, that’s my way. I want to approach the game, but, uh, time doesn’t always allow for that to happen.
Where do you stand on this idea? Marshall of constantly adding things to the process and the process constantly evolving for you. I could, I see you as an interesting blend of old school and new school, and I’m honestly, I’ve no idea what your answer is going to be. Well, again, I. Yeah, I wish I were better at, uh, at adding there’s so much stuff out there and there’s been sort of an explosion of stuff that’s been done really over the last five years, though.
It’s incredible from coming to this game where in the 1980s, where there were just a few books out there to there’s now so much of, so much of the literature, easy to get. So much literature, so many different, uh, sort of computer modeling programs, so many different books written on different approaches to handicapping.
I mean, heck there’s, there’s so many different marketing speed figures out there. So, um, you know, I, I would there parts of the game I would like to sort of improve my understanding of I’ve never sort of fully. Fully embraced or even understood a lot of the work that, um, that Sarton has starting bro. Ham Rowhammer have done.
Uh, I did, uh, try to do a bit of it in my class last time I won’t do so this time. Um, and I spent a lot of time with the raw data myself trying to come up with, with tools of my own. Uh, I came up with a model for pace, uh, that, uh, um, Uh, and, uh, and I will then use that and show them how we, uh, are able to do some modeling of, uh, of track bias.
So, um, I mean, it is, it is a sport where it can be overwhelming the amount of, of, uh, amount of, uh, uh, different ways to approach the game. And there are many different ways to approach the game that, uh, can, uh, lead you to be a, a more successful player. You talked about all the books that are out there. I want to give out a quick plug and we’re going to have the author on at some point, another guy interviewed many moons ago talking about Barry meadow and his new book, the skeptical handicapper using data and brains to win at the race track.
Very interesting stuff, where he worked with another guy whose work. I really admire Ken Massa, who has the massive, uh, HTR database at his disposal. And they did all these data type queries. Very much like a book. You’ve probably read two, I’m going to space on the name of it. And the guy wrote a few books, but William Kiran years ago did a book of using.
Computer studies to analyze, racing, to see what he could learn. This is sort of like an update of that book. I would say meadow is such a contrarion wonderful contrarian in so many ways. There is some real, there are some real nuggets of gold in this book. I have to assume that you have it. I don’t know if it’s on your reading list or, uh, or if you’ve actually read it yet, but you know, the book I’m referring to.
Yeah, I just got, uh, I just came in the mail the other day. It’s sitting on my shelf, uh, in, uh, and, um, yeah, hopefully I will get to it. Uh, in may, after this class is over and you bring up, uh, William Kiran, the first sort of handicapping strategy I talked about, it was a career in speed points. Right. Just a simple, very basic way to evaluate the pace of a race.
So that’s sort of, to us was the starting point. Let’s figure out who’s going to take the lead and how this race is gonna be run. And there’s not much to these speed points, but it was a, it was a way to at least introduce racing with a old school type, uh, tool. And looking at the speed points now in 2019, I know they’re part of certain PPE.
So some people are definitely looking at them. I assume they’re priced in. They’re obviously kind of a, it’s kind of a crude tool, a little rudimentary, but when you go through, I’m assuming if you make the students bother to do it, that there must be some signal in there. There must be something you can learn.
It must help you in some way to design a rate. Yes. Well, I just want them to think about. Uh, who’s good. How to think about designing a race. And so the speed points are sort of the simplest way to point to who’s going to, you know, who’s going to be up there on the lead. Who’s going to be coming from behind and how fast the pace is going to be for particular race.
So it’s crude, but it’s a starting point. And then from there we can sort of dig into. You know, more of, Hey, let’s look at the pace of these races and see who really might get deleted when we do a sort of more nuanced analysis. That sounds really cool. What are some other things in the class so far this year that you’ve felt have resonated with the students?
Anything that surprised you in that regard? As sort of my companion question? Well, they really enjoyed their handicap Catherine contests. Uh, you’ll be here for the race of the day. I think we’ve been through nine races and, uh, three students immediately separated at themselves. The first time I taught the class in 2017, uh, we went through the speed points, designed the first race and, uh, the two horses ran one, two.
That looked to be loose on the lead. And they were seven to two and five to one. So I looked like a genius and a half the class had one horse, half the class at the other, and they were head to head through the stretch. And this time, uh, the horse that looked to be loose and bleed was nowhere to be found a.
20 to one shot won the race. And it was just a horse that I thought had no chance whatsoever. So I look like a moron. Three students had that horse and him separated, not from the field. So I don’t know what you do when you have a cap horse to kick off it. A 15 race contest is a, um, uh, makes it a lot less interesting, but I don’t think they, we’ve not really gotten into this.
The strategies involved in playing contest yet. So, uh, uh, they seem to all still be active participants on this exam. I do a lot of, uh, pool pricing stuff. It’s, that’s, uh, a big love of mine. I think it to them, their eyes glaze over when they do it, but there have been a number of students who’ve come to office hours and ask me questions, but I still sort of pinch myself.
Heck I’m teaching a class on betting markets and they’re coming back office hours asking you to calculate a fair price. Exactly. And, uh, we did, uh, we made speed feed yours. And so we went through the process process of it, not so much that, um, not so much that, that they should go off and make their own speed figures is we really wanted to get behind the process of how buyer speed figures are made and look at situations where.
A figure might be projected, uh, figure might be, be different than, than what you would expect. And I’ll give you an example, uh, midnight PCU, uh, sort of given the variant that they gave on the day. Should have, uh, should have run in 93, but they projected that out to a 99, given the pace of the race. And so, you know, it’s a race that’s worth following, you know, what is the correct number?
Now they have a lot more experience than I do making this, the buyer speed figures that the professionals, the buyers and associates, but, uh, what they’re doing is they’re making decisions based on a small sample size. They’re projecting, they’re doing the same process that, uh, any other figure maker might do.
And so it’s interesting to note where their figures vary from. What they would normally project as their variant. And so, uh, the single, single biggest source, the single biggest effect on a price of a horse is, uh, is, are those speed figures. And so if we can find situations where they may be off where, uh, or they meet the number may be fuzzy that may present a opportunity to find value.
I mean, I, I went to office hours a lot when I was in college, but it was mostly just to convince teachers that, um, I had some sad stories that they needed to bump me up a letter drive, but I wish I only wish I could go to office hours. And, uh, and, and look at will pays with, with professor Graham. That’d be a, that’d be a ton of fun.
Yeah. They seem, they seem very nervous about tonight’s exam. Right. I, you know, and, uh, So I’ve had a lot of people come by office hours today. That’s funny, talked about the making speed figures and the perspective it gives you. I contend that every player should go through the exercise of doing it for a meet or a month or something, just as you said, Marshall, to sort of.
Internalize the process and just get a sense of where numbers might be stronger or weaker. If you don’t want to do it yourself. The other sort of cheat, I would say for it is to look at or track certain figures. Afterwards, I used to call the process race review, where you go back and you look at what the buyer and the time form were for a race.
And you just get sort of a sense when they’re in lock step versus when one is one way. And one is another, just gives you like a little bit of perspective on how the figures are made. And it’s the underpinning of so much of the pricing. I mean, Would, would you say that the commercially available speed figures are still the dominant force in, in the final win odds of, of a horse at this point?
Or has it started to evolve and change by 2019? Well, there are a lot of factors, but I still believe that the speed figures are the, the dominant, um, dominant contributor to a horse’s odds. And so, uh, again, I’m, I’m in total agreement, I like looking at multiple speed figures, see how each of them approached evaluating a certain race or certain card.
And it’s so situations where the speed figures may be off, may not represent a horse’s true ability, just like, uh, just like situations where there’s debate over attract bias. There can be debate over what’s the correct number. Ultimately, remember these figures are made off. Uh, very few races. And w we’re looking at Oak lawn Oak lawn is actually a fairly easy place to do figures because they have four different race configurations, right?
Five and a half per lung, six for lungs, Mount Mount 16, and most races are at six for a youngster miles, 16 Saul on dirt. Right. You can imagine the, you know, at Saratoga with the outer and the inner and all the different distances, right. Uh, how much projection is done. And so it, uh, you know, that makes it to me very worthwhile and seeing how, how.
Professional figure racist PR professional figure makers approach, making their figures and situations where they deviate from one another. All right, we’ve talked a little bit about Oak lawn’s Friday racing. I want to turn the conversation to Saturday at Oaklawn, not going to make you do all the heavy lifting here, Marshall, but I do want to get your thoughts on the stakes and open it up.
If you have a spot play or something else. Interesting to look at elsewhere on the card. Let’s start off with the count fleet, which is a grade three, goes as race number four, three 18. I assume that’s actually, I don’t know, is that three 18? Central time or three 18 Eastern time. I probably should have looked into that anyway.
It’s sometime in the middle of the year. That’s Eastern. Okay. Uh, on, on Saturday, it’s a small field, but it’s a pretty interesting field with, uh, a real tough knocker. I admire quite a bit Whitmore showing up in this spot. What are your thoughts on this year’s count fleet Marshall. I, you know, it’s a small field, I think mid totally is just looks like he’s going to get loose on the lead.
He’s a horse that has. Run really well run really big numbers, but always been on he’s running races where he’s been loose on the lead and, and, um, and, uh, uh, basically had slow, slow fractions to run with. But I just, this looks like the same scenario. It’s a small field. I think it gets me totally over with more.
I don’t think it’s a race that offers any betting value. I think it’ll be great to watch. I’ll be rooting for Whitmore Whitmore, always a horse that has beaten me and I’ve never given the horse enough respect. Uh, but I just, I just think this race just sets up too well from a totally. And, uh, um, I, it just, I think everything is going to be priced in.
I think he’s going to be very short and, uh, the exact is going to be very short. Uh, but it’d be fun to watch. J K, I know you haven’t had time to fully do this card. I know you just looked at the stakes races for the show, but is your gut that materially is one to just watch like Marshall seems to be implying or is this one you might want to build your early picks around?
I mean, I could see myself bedding the totally win the Breeder’s cup sprint at this point. I think he’s really that good. Yeah. You know, I look, we, we play the job. We try not to play the jockey musical chairs game because it can lead you down the wrong path. But if you look at Mattola and you look at Whitmore and you look at the races that Whitmore’s run and you look at the races, the Metolius around him, Ricardo Santana has written mentally.
I don’t know. The last six, seven, eight times went more even further back than that. And Ricardo decided to stick on the totally it, well, here’s the thing. If, if Ricardo arrived from the totally, like he’s the best thinking horse in the race and his aggressive puts them on the front end and really takes all questions out of the situation.
I think he’ll win for sure. If he does one of those silly rides and he’s not that type of rider, but if he does one of those rides, we see very often where he tries to like rate them on the lead and just kind of let her invite everyone into the ways and them down. Well, that is not in totally his game, but totally his game is he’s fast.
And he finishes. If you take away half of his strength, which is that he’s fast and you just ask him to finish. He is not going to out finish Whitmore. It is a riders race between Ricardo and Louie. I’m going to go with the guy who’s been riding all the races at Oaklawn. I’ll go with Ricardo and totally.
It makes sense. A couple things I want to pause on there. Well, especially this, when it comes to your Breeder’s cup sprint prediction, doesn’t it give you pause that as Marshall points out, it’s actually remarkable. I’m looking at Metolius time form U S PP, and I’m not joking. Every single one of the last six races, there are fractions coded blue, how that’s possible in sprint stakes in America.
I guess it just speaks to the point of everybody’s thing to do in 2019 seems to be, to rate speed whenever possible, but that’s just remarkable for me for a horse, this good and this fast to see all that blue coating, I think that’s going to be his undoing when he goes and faces the big boys come the fall.
There’s a good news about that, right? Is that he doesn’t have a race. In that in his, whatever life is eight lifetime starts where he had blue and he had red flag fractions and gotten beat. So the jury is still out. I mean, he obviously can relax and finish. He’s not a runoff. He’s getting all these blue fractions, he’s a rate-able horse.
So when he gets into situations where he needs to take back a little bit off of an X, Y jet, or an Imperial hint or whoever else, uh, you know, Bob Baffert has, it’s going to be sprinting later in the year. I think that it’s actually a good sign that he can, that he can shut off a little bit, but he’s still quick enough to make the lead and every race that he’s been in, except for a couple of them.
So, um, I get your point, but let’s see him. Let’s see him run poorly with red. Before we knock him for blue. I respect your contrarian. Take there. Let’s talk about the grade two Oaklawn that goes as race nine at six 22. Hopefully the tent at this point, we’re going to be dry. It’s going to be a little warmer than forecast.
There’ll be some, uh, some delicious food and beer still being served. Some fun socializing along the way. Yes, sir. You call it the race, the wrong name. Oh, what did I call it? Well, you said it right off the here earlier today. And you don’t remember what you said? No, I don’t remember what I said, city. The city of lights
someday. There’s a very good chance. This will be the city of light stakes. There’s a predict. There is a prediction, a bold prediction right now. Marshall JKS talked enough lately. Let’s go back to what a cool assortment of horses, some real local favorites, some real quality showing up here. Where are you going to go?
What’s a very nice way to put this field, the relative to city of light and accelerate a year ago. So, um, you know, maybe that’s a broad statement under the vision. I don’t, I don’t like to think of the open, open, uh, You know, I don’t like to think of this as a division. I mean, ultimately it’s all horses are eligible to run this race, right?
It’s an open race. And so this is sort of the division or champions or crown, uh, to win, uh, you know, the, be the champion. You gotta win, you gotta win against open horses. And so it’s a race. That’s the, where if I owned a Lake. Uh, it’s a race that I would have looked at because a late going amount of 16th in the Apple blossom against me that pursue, I think that’s a little short still.
And here you have a Mount ACE against this crowd. I think she would be, you’d have a big chance and a big chance to stamp, uh, you know, to, to have a nice win against, um, uh, in open company. I know this is a grade two versus a grade one, but she’s already grade one winner as far as, you know, what we actually have in front of us.
Uh, I’m very curious to see Quip. I mean, uh, uh, Quip was a very interesting force in this three-year-old crop, uh, uh, and ran well here last year. And, and, and even numbers wise ran, ran pretty well, sort of getting back to his top, uh, first out in the house. Hope while dueling dueling on the rail. Uh, And so that’s where I’d go.
I’d also probably give giant expectations another chance. I don’t think he got it. Terrific trip being wide against maybe a good rail. Um, all that being said rated our superstar was wide too. So I don’t know if I, you know, maybe you want to fell out everyone in the Essex, but that’s mostly repeats. So I, it’s not a race that, uh, that I can find anyone.
Interesting. Those are the two horses I’d probably go with. Uh, I, I don’t think either will be a price. Poor break too, for a giant expectations last time, if I’m remembering that race, right. Just to underline that one a little bit. JK, where are you landing in here? Well, try and expectations always breaks poorly.
If you look at his P walk close races, he’s always slow away from there. Um, so in this situation, he didn’t to be slow away from there again, and he’s going to sit in behind. And, and I don’t think he can win from there, or he’s going to be a dead hustle away from the gauge walls and a pop them out of there.
And then I think he might got to get confused and be hard to shut off and then get out there with Quip and pioneer spirit and Connie heat things up again. Um, I kind of like waited our superstar again. I mean, I was a little bit agitated that I barely missed him at 79 Oh one. So then I wasn’t going to play him at 14 to one.
Then he one, Laffite actually made a joke at me on air about it. It’s like, I know Jonathan hadn’t rated our superstar cause I had talked about him so much, but I didn’t, um, he’s going to be, he’s going to be even shorter this time. And the 14 one, he goes last time and he get a good trip. Marshall mentioned, you know, speed and, and inside was better.
Last time he was outside. Um, I don’t think the added ground is going to hurt him. He always seems like he’s doing his best running late. I think right at our superstar makes a ton of sense in here. And I’m just going to have to swallow the fact that. That he’s going to be a little bit of a shorter price than I want.
I’m completely against John expectations. That’s a great, although I do like Ryan X line and, uh, but I I’m against Sean expert. Next line is a cool dude and a brewer out there in Santa Barbara. Um, Casa helped me out. What’s the name of his brewery? I haven’t bet. And that’s why I can’t, I don’t have it at the tip of my tongue, but, um, They have, they actually have a beer named sham, a champagne room that cause cause you know, he was an owner of Casa Agrium AGR, right?
Yeah. Yeah. Got to try it. And I’m actually looking at a picture of the champagne room beer right now, a barrel aged and blended spelt. Uh,
on blonde grapes again. Sorry, Bob. About that, that sounds really delicious, actually. And it reminds me before JK, we were texting off air and you sent me a con this, this comment about, um, This comment about make maker’s 46 and it was some sort of editorial comment about, about maker’s 46. And I assuming you were talking about the whiskey, I was impressed.
I shot you back. You know, my tasting notes. I really like it. It’s a little Woody. You get those vanilla flavors and you’re like, what are you talking about? Talk about the horse race. I thought second time in the day here. You’re you’re you’re you’re you are sensing that you, you got to Somalia and you somewhere JK.
I am not Somalian. So I know sometimes I might look Somali. I’m not Somalian. Oh my goodness. The Sri Lanka. I didn’t know if those are bad SaaS between the Sri Lankans and the Somalians. Anyway. No, I’m just saying, I’m just saying I’m just clearing it up for everyone. People always ask me. It’s my favorite thing.
When people start getting comfortable around me, they always say, so what, what are you? And I always say, uh, Uh, I mean, I’m a horseplayer real estate guy. I’m American. No, no, no, no, no. Like, like what are you, interestingly enough, I get that too. So there, there, there you go. You guys, uh, you guys and your heritage, you just, you people ask questions about you wherever you go.
You’re such captivating figures. All right. We’ve gone far too down this rabbit hole of nonsense. I did want to go back to one serious point about giant expectations, which was, that was such a. Like, you know, I was just obviously making chatter on a podcast, but to, to upgrade giant expectations for the bad break, last time would be like absolute rookie mistake of trip handicapper when they always break bad.
There’s absolutely no reason to give them an upgrade. And you just factor it into your race design from there. And that is actually an excellent segue to the next race. The Arkansas Derby, because another horse who has the exact same disease as giant expectations in terms of never wanting to get away from there is running and that’s country house for bill Mott, not a horse.
I would be counting on to get over the gait problems based on his body of work, but such a compelling runner. Nonetheless, Marshall, who’s going to win this year’s Arkansas Derby. I think it’s going to be in probable. I think that, uh, that, uh, they need to win a run second to get into the Kentucky Derby.
Right. Am I correct on that? And I think that, uh, I think that if you sort of look at the two most talented horses in this race, some problem in Omaha beach in Omaha beach doesn’t have to win. And so, um, you know, I think if we looked at the scene, it needed Derby. Last week when game winner didn’t have to, when they, you know, keep them four wide, four wide and a, you know, run them around the track, get him a good tuneup for the Kentucky Derby, uh, maybe same situation for Omaha beach and probable needs to get into the Kentucky Derby needs to run well and, uh, should be geared up.
I do think that this sort of improbables last race is really interesting. I, this sort of this debate on whether any, any time that you sort of. Classified the rail is good or bad. You’re making a decision on a, on a fairly small sample size. And that advocate pretty convinced that day that the rail was good.
A lot of horses ran well in that rail Warrior’s charge ran in that way, rail for us, uh, in one and, and really jumped in his figure and then long range toddy set on that rail, the whole trip, and then, you know, picked up the pieces of that is that race collapsed. Uh, I had a long discussion about that with Sean Borman, who was convinced that the, that it was neutral and, uh, and, um, made a very compelling case for why he thought it was.
And then, you know, looking at the horses have come out of that race, uh, life, like say, uh, Likes to parlay one, the one six rates on that card and allowance race on that card in the rail the whole way around and came back and really ran the Excelsior with one, the Celsius with a pretty tough trip, tough trip last time, and a really jumped up speed figure wise.
So, um, so, um, it makes me less sure about that, the rail that day. And so maybe I’ve underrated long range Tati and hopefully underrated my own horse. Warrior’s charge. But I’m still gonna go with them. Probable. I still think he had a really tough trip and did a lot of the running in the race to get caught at the end.
And I think he needs it and I think he’ll be prepared and, and run a big race, um, country house. I just think that this is sort of not, it’s just doesn’t seem like the bill, my plan, right? Uh, the, uh, you know, running the fourth time before the Derby running of the risen star and then the Louisiana Derby, then coming back three, three, three weeks later and running in this spot.
Um, you know, I love looking at lucky. I love looking at lucky going to mountain eights, but, uh, um, just doesn’t seem to this sort of fit to see this horse sort of moving forward, at least based on sort of the trainer horse profile. We always talk about bill Mott with a target. This is bill Mott without a target, right?
If things had gone differently in the Louisiana Derby, it feels very unlikely to me. The horse would be here. However, all these things said, Oh, you go ahead. Well, he’ll get some pace. I mean, with gray attempt, dropping in a stretching back out, uh, uh, running that, you know, after running into Zebo who gets some pace to run out.
So we’ll have a good pace, but I still think you’re right. It seems like a, it seems like a horse without a plan. Well, now having said that I still could land on the horse. It’s just gonna, as it always should. At the end of the day, come down to price for me. We talk all the time about lone speed. You’ll see situations with a loan closer.
Now, granted, these speed horses are so good that some of them will, one of them, or two of them will probably hang around. I think for a third, fourth type key country houses. Excellent. And I might use him. I might, if I’m just messing around in the race, I could very easily see making that play as the loan closer to come and get a little piece.
But if they let him go at something. A little wild here, you know, eight, 10 to one. I’d be interested in giving them one more shot even though sometimes when, uh, w when something’s, when something is. So off-brand for a trainer. I remember this with Frankl. Bobby Frankel on his wheel backs. He’d do these weird things that you could never see him doing.
And I would, I mean, it’s just anecdotal, but I feel like those horses would tend, he’s such a good trainer. Those horses would tend to run. Well, I don’t necessarily think this is like Matt without a plan owner. Pick the spot though. It could be, I think it’s more, he thinks the horse can handle it. So he’s in the spot and he’s going to get a great setup.
I’m still very attracted to the horse. And if you get feet to the fire to make a pick from here, I just, just, I mean, to be a little hot Taiki or whatever, I’d probably just go ahead and go country house and make the note that you got to key in those underneath spots. Obviously not one that I have a ton of confidence in the way I prefaced it, but he is a horse.
I think that’s worth a long look. And that concept of the loan closer is something that we’ve never talked about on the show. But I do think is a thing J K your thoughts. Oh, my God. I got so many things to say. All right, I’m going to do a quick, alright. First of all, okay. Think about this. I got a head to head opportunity for you here.
So with country house, and you just be thinking it’s not one of the big three, so just I’ll tell you that I don’t want, I’m going to say the pick for later. Okay. Here’s what I will say. Country house is old. This is absolutely owner. Pick the spot calendar, pick the spot. Someone, someone that made the wrong decision picked this spot because they couldn’t run.
They couldn’t run last week. Cause I’d have been 14 days. They can’t run next week cause they can’t get into the Derby. This is 21 days. I was the only choice. It’s the only choice they had to try to get into the Derby. It’s the only reason they’re here. The horse doesn’t break from the gate. He’s had one work since his last race.
And he didn’t work out of the gate. So what, what has changed that this horse is suddenly gonna jump out of the gate? Joelle walk out of there, the pace scenario. I think he can walk out of there without it being detrimental. If he walks out of there long range, Tati is not going to walk out of there and he will definitely out finish it.
Cause as long as he’s taught, he doesn’t necessarily have, like, from that outside, they’re going to have to take back, going to put them on a lead and go and get in the mix and go, you know, two or three wide, first or second flight. He’s going to come back a little bit to them. I, in my opinion, and I think he’d kill out, finish them now with that said, I think of the big three and probable Omaha beach and long range Tati.
I don’t want long range Tawny because he got the trip last time. I do want him more than the country house. But he got to, he got a perfect trip last time and barely beat a horse. I got a bad trip. Um, Omaha beach, like you said, or maybe Marshall said, like, I think it was Marshall that said is, you know, he doesn’t necessarily have to win this race.
I do love, and he, you know, and he was kind of loose last. I’m not sure he’s ever be loose this time. He was traveling at a good clip, but still. Whatever I will see what happens with him. I think he’ll probably run well, but I don’t necessarily want them in the spot. I’d be much more excited about him. Uh, come the first Saturday in may, I think in probably the big three is the most likely winner, but the horse that I’m going to pick is Galilean.
Um, and it’s one of those situations when I was against the Galilean. Last time and he ran pretty stinking good. After kind of, you know, he kinda came out of there. Weird if you, if you remember any kind of, kind of rushed up a little bit, and that’s kind of what caused and probable to kind of get caught in no man’s land, because I think he was expecting him to be inside of him and he wasn’t, and I think Galileo is going to run much better than he did last time.
28 days since his last race. Everything’s spaced out. Great. He was 26 days between, you know, between, uh, the state, the Cal bridge. They can California. I actually think he’s on a run much better. As long as Flavian prat does not butcher him. Like he butchered the horse that I’ve been on and keep him today.
That was a great diatribe. Head-to-head accepted gala lay-in versus country house. We’ll have a lot of fun with that one. J K I L I liked that. I’m going to start doing, I’m going to start singling horses that I bet that I play you in head to heads with. Cause like they get a, they get like a real boost.
You’re talking about earlier, they talked to me earlier about if we can get a PP that like shows blinkers off or whatever, there’s definitely like the buyer points are like plus 17 when JK picks one versus P and a, I may only be one and 82 against you all time, but it’s going to be two and 82 come Saturday night.
We’ll be celebrating in the 10th. Strike 10, uh, shame. You cannot be there JK, but you’ll be having. Fun down at Caitlin. We’re going to talk about Keene Linda in a minute, but, uh, Marshall, uh, great work before we let you go. Anything else on Saturday, we should be having our eye out for, uh, you know, given that the, the past performances came out, uh, right as I was headed off to my two hour faculty meeting, uh, which is the, you know, I have the joy of teaching, uh, uh, wonderful students, uh, that brilliant young minds are gonna lead our, uh, Country and our world in the future, but I also get the joy of sitting through to our faculty meetings.
And so, um, you can’t like put the PPS, you can’t put the PPS in, like fold them inside some sort of intellectual looking newspaper and you know, that kind of thing. I was on my phone the whole time, looking at, uh, you know, sort of at least looking over the stakes and seeing who got in and, and, and scrolling through it.
So I did that. Yeah, he did get a little bit of work done there, but I was also a Hurley, you know, sort of finishing up my, a exam corrections as well. I mean, look, I think that if this pod goes up in time, which I’m sure it will, the fantasies a very interesting race motion, emotion is one of these horses that, uh, I mean, just looks great.
Figure wise, if you do any pace figure numbers, they’re there. They’re enormous. I mean, they may be among the best of all three-year-old Billy’s but she’s scary. She’s one of these horses that gets out on the lead and she causes her own fast paced. And so she’s almost certainly going to be able to embed.
It can be interesting to see the rider change from John court to Mike Smith, to see if that can slow her down. But, um, if it can, I think, I think that there’s interesting outsiders and I think one of those outsiders is Irish mischief. 10 strike racing zone. But anyway, that’s, that’s my only, my only, uh, uh, pick, I got one thing about you.
You said I saw a video a long time ago. I don’t know where it’s at. I’m sure it’s on YouTube or something. I read posted it and it was where Mike Smith and I think he was at Belmont and they were in the room together and they were at the aquacise and Mike was explaining to high rad how, when you’re rating a speed horse, Instead of doing the like 90 degree arm pull at them.
He believes that that makes it harder for them to breathe and they fight you. He drops his hands and puts them like down by their neck and then like restraints them from there. Where he feels like they can kind of have their head a little bit more and they relax and they can breathe a little bit better.
It’s much more comfortable for him. And he was like coaching Iraq up on it. And Iran was like, it was a really cool video. And so I think that there’s something to your point on motion, emotion on how Mike rides speed horses and why he rides him so well, but he rides her well, if she can contain her speed, she’s unbeatable here.
Simple as that. All right. Well, fingers crossed as far as that goes, Marshall, I look forward to seeing you tomorrow. Hopefully we will have a nice incident free travel get in in plenty of time and we will be talking soon. Thank you very much. Great. I appreciate it. Thanks guys. Before we proceed. Just want to remind you that this podcast is brought to you by our partners at black type thoroughbreds.
For more information on racehorse ownership, check out black type tb.com. I also want to put in a quick word for our newest partner, lone star park, their 2019 season is nearly upon us. And they’ve got a series of handicapping contests that folks are going to want to know about. And the first one is coming up on Sunday, April 28th.
It’s the Steve Sexton mile day challenge, lots of NHC seats on the line. 10 guaranteed. 20,000 in cash. 100% payback. There’s a lot going on. This is one you’re going to want to check out. If you can get down to lone star for Sunday, April 28th, they’re going to have a feeder there on the 27th more information.
Check out lone star park.com/handicapping hyphen tournaments. I’ll send around that link as well. All right, J K, we teased the idea of talking keen Linde. And I do want to get to that, but I first want to talk about a couple of cool things in the contest world. First is some news, the NHC announces it’s going back to Bally’s the treasure Island era is over.
When you think back to the NHCs years at treasure Island, which is all that you or I have ever known, as long as we’ve been in the game involved with contests. Uh, what will you think of when you think back to Tia?
Oh, he’s trying not to make some joke about that bench that we talked about in the game show, Nick tomorrow said, find something funny on Twitter and it’s absolutely true. He’s like I will officially never go to treasure Island again. I appreciate treasure Island and how they kind of stepped up and, and did some things that not too many other hotels would do.
And I know that sounds confusing to people, but just for instance, like, you know, the, you know, it couldn’t go to the wind because catering is just too expensive there. And so you think out frustrated about takeout situations now, and it’s just, it’s just a very tough deal. To try to deal with in Las Vegas with all the unions.
And it’s just a very, it’s an uphill battle. And they, they came up, they came to the plate. Now I’m looking forward to the switch. Um, I’ve actually was fortunate enough. I stayed in Vegas a couple of days and got to go over and kind of look at the situation. And a couple of people ask like, well, why, well, a couple of reasons, why a is the treasure Island?
It’s probably not a destination for those people that aren’t coming there for, um, for the NHC. So one of the great things is if you’re going to participate to the windows are at the tables. Now you’re going to get Caesar’s points, which I think most players will be more appreciative of. You can use those Caesar points for other trips to Vegas and stay at Caesar’s palace or, or, uh, you can stay at, uh, the chrom, well or Bally’s or Paris or a number of other properties all over the world.
So that’s another plus about it. The other thing is, is that it’s going to be one room and I saw the room. The ceiling is twice as high as the NHC main ballroom. The room is three times the size. Everyone will be in the same room. The food will be in the same room. The guests will be able to be in the same room.
The they’ll have like little, I think they’re going to try to have a little lounge area set up so you can get away from your table. Go sit on a couch and hang out and chop it up with people. Um, And the other really cool thing is, and I know that they had talked about doing it. I don’t really feel bad about sharing this if it doesn’t work out, but there’s a possibility that because there are so many surrounding Caesar’s properties with Cromwell Caesar’s palace, Paris valleys, there’s a possibility.
That you’ll be able to like, you know, use points or upgrade if you’re a double qualifier to maybe stay somewhere else. I know they’re trying to work through the logistics of that. It’s just an overall good move. Caesar’s was excited to have us as HorsePlayers. So I appreciate that. Um, and, uh, it should be fun.
It’s a nice change. I think people will get excited going to the NHC is exciting. Walking through treasure Island and walking by that bar, that’s all down there and seeing people it’s exciting. And now we all get to kind of do something new. I don’t know where the Hangouts going to be. I don’t know where I’m going to get coffee from.
I don’t know where I’m going to Haiti cap in the morning where I’m going to sit, where I’m going to have dinner. There’s a heck of a lot more restaurant, a restaurant options. So I’m excited about it. I think it’ll be fun. It’s definitely a. A positive mood that some someone out in Vegas felt like it was appropriate enough to reach out and, and to try to get us as HorsePlayers to their property.
Who’s kidding. Who you’ve never made a dinner reservation in your life? I think it’s exactly. It’s why I like to play some more restaurants and don’t worry. I’m not going to Gilly’s or see your fraud.
I think it’s Jilly’s. I think it’s Jilly’s anyway, let’s not kick a place on it. I will say this. I love I do. Without a doubt. I do love Tony from, from he’s the only person I’ve really dealt with from treasure Island. He’s the manager of the sports book. He treats our friend Marvin extremely well. And, uh, Marvin is a little bit bummed out because you got to hook out.
You know, everyone loves him at TBI, but, um, uh, Tony was really good to us as horse players. Tony is one of the guys that does match ups. He’s one of the only two or three places in Vegas to do match-ups and that’s because of Tony. So this is nothing towards. You know, Tony, it’s just, you know, I, I’m excited to try something different and do something new.
No idea. We were going to talk about it for that long. My earlier estimate of how long the recording was going to take tonight is now officially out the window, but I’m glad you’re passionate about it. And you bring some good insights. So thank you for that Intel. Couple of more contests notes. These are a little bit closer to home.
Hey, we got a couple of new partners. One is none other than the breeders’ cup. How exciting is this JK? We are going to be doing some promotion for the breeders cup and the breeders’ cup betting challenge. And they’re debuting a pretty cool game this weekend that I have a feeling a lot of our listeners might be interested in.
It’s a low ratio, high roller game. You might call it. You can get all the details email@example.com. But why don’t you tell folks about the specifics? Yeah, it’s a $22,750 entry. It’s a little steep. But if you’re a guy who knows you’re going to play in the $10,000 breeders’ cup betting challenge, it’s a one in four ratio, which is a ratio that I much prefer to the one in 65.
I think you have to have one of your greatest days to win a one in 65 to just outright win a one in 65. It’s tough. And so I, I love the idea of a one in four. It’s a, it’s an opportunity to get into the contest for 27 50 rather than the 10,000. Uh, there’s no travel tied on in there. The takeout, I think is somewhere around 9%.
I’m actually looking at Twitter right now telling me that that’s too high, which is bizarre. Yes. Yes. And you can imagine who who’s. And I’m not knocking cause we’re, I think we’re like semi friendly now, so I don’t want to be ugly, but, um, anyways, I look, I, I think it’s a great opportunity to get involved.
At a what? These low ratios, anytime there’s a low ratio. I think your strike rate is much higher, low ratio than it is the other one it’s going to take. If you, if you try to play the one 65, it’s going to take you 10 or 15, one 65 this year to win. So why don’t you just put all that together? I mean, you would be, you’d be way ahead of the game there.
You also point out there’s a massive difference between somebody said, well, why not just buy in? Well, there’s still a pretty significant difference between 27, 50 and 10,000. I won’t make JK try math and fail on that one by the way. But let’s just say there’s a significant difference in absolutely. The other thing is Pete, I don’t mean to cut you off.
I used to, I don’t know if you’re going down this road or not. This was something that we’ve been talking with them about doing. And, and so the idea was kind of, uh, was, was a little bit. Put into play quickly. There will be feeders. The next time they do this, they didn’t, they like got it up. They wanted to take advantage of the great racing that we’re going to have on Saturday.
Um, and I think the next time it happens, that will be a much better opportunity for people to, to, you know, cause 27 50 that’s a niche product, right? Like there’s not a lot of guys that are going to be throwing out 27 50 to play in a, in a contest. But there is guys that will, but there is a lot of guys that’ll play a hundred bucks to try to qualify into the 27 50 and then they just gotta beat three guys and go from there.
And do us a favor when you sign up for this game, do it through our link. We’ll send out on Twitter so that people know that we sent you. That’s just helpful for them in their tracking of things. Helpful for us. Makes us look good, obviously. So, but it will be in both of our feeds on Twitter. He’s at UT big hair.
I’m at looms boldly. We’d appreciate it very much. If you go through that extra step, you’ll be seeing a lot about this over the next couple of days. Click that link, sign up. Bada boom, bada bang speaking, gang of contest. J K, want to let people know that it’s now official. Everybody knows we have our partnership with the thoroughbred retirement foundation and we now have a new, different kind of partnership.
With Derby Wars, Derby Wars is going to be running a contest on April 20th. It’s going to be all for charity. Every penny of takeout is going to go directly to the TRF and. I say we’re, I don’t know your schedule yet. It’s possible. This will just be me. If that happens, maybe we’ll get you to call in or something to say hi could be us doing a live broadcast of the show.
That’ll be fun. We’ll talk a little bit about TRF. We’ll talk a lot about the races that day. It’s going to be the last four at aqueduct and Keeland on April 20th. I think we’re looking at a hundred dollar price point to play. We still have to finalize some of that stuff. We’ll have feeders as well that week.
It should be a lot of fun. Do you know yet Jonathan, your travel schedule or is there, are you drawing live to potentially participate in this four 20, uh, I don’t know, I, I, this, these next two months are creating for me. I mean, I don’t think I have a Fox show for 20, so maybe, I mean, they might be able to work itself out.
And how about that? I’m very interested to see, um, you know, how can you, if you’re a takeout hater, how can you hate a takeout? That’s going to a charity. They’ll find a way JK they’ll find a way. Oh, I’m going to like a gift it’s like makes them seem like they’re the worst people in the world. If they’re mad at someone for the takeout rate on a, on a, on a, on a thing that’s going to charity.
So it should be a lot of fun. Um, everybody needs to try to participate in that. If you can. And obviously it’ll, it’ll go to help our a four legged friends and, and our two legged friends that are involved with the four legged friends. That’s the idea, and this isn’t official yet, but the rumor is those feeders might be, well, let’s say this they’re going to be low takeout or possibly even no takeout to get into this big dance.
We really want to. Raise as much money as possible for the TRF. You guys have done a great job by the way, audience already. And those of you thinking of contributing, we can’t wait for you to join the party. Special shout out to listener. Andrew Norris wins an NHC seat over the weekend and immediately celebrates by making a donation to the TRF through our link.
Thanks us in the process for helping guide them along his tournament journey. We look forward to meeting him out at Bally’s and that’s just something. I know, I don’t want to be too preachy about it, but I just love that idea. You have a big score, especially if we did anything to help you along the way.
Go ahead and give we’ve got that special link. They sponsor the early week show, but we’ll give them some free love. I don’t think anybody will mind hearing this one more time. T R F Inc. Org slash players. That’s the place to give. We appreciate your shout outs and thanks, especially to Andrew for that one.
Okay. Caitlin time. We don’t have a ton of time for it JK, but I want to give you a chance to give your thoughts on these Saturday stakes races. We talked about them a little bit on the other show, the Caitlin select players podcast with Gabby God debt we gave sort of the early look. Maybe we’ll get some more thoughts from you.
Shall we start with Ray seven, the Ben ally Ray seven, the bin Allah. Let me scroll here. And I am in. Boom. No, not Saturday. Sorry. All right, here we go with Friday and all I got it. All right. Ready? Seven. Yeah. So just whistled down on the rail was entered on a, an allowance for some Friday. I don’t know what Michael Matt’s is going to do in that situation.
Without a horse, obviously ran a huge number back in Keelan last year, a horse that you definitely want to consider, but. Man, I couldn’t get away with flying. I couldn’t get away from flame away. I don’t know if you remember the show that, that, uh, the double arm was on rich Avril. I kinda was like against flame away.
I actually played the late pick five that day, but there was a carry over and I didn’t use flame away. I like toss the horse cause I was trying to beat him, uh, the inside. Not exactly where you want to be at a Tampa. And so I thought he was gonna be down there and he won despite I think he’s gonna run well today.
Um, He’s run well at Keeley’s when there are twice it’s been in the exact double times that he’s run. I think he’s in a runway is tactical he’s forward. He gets Iran. Um, I read on the lead or I read formerly plays can be dangerous if he doesn’t end up taking himself out of that position. I think flame away is going to be tough in this spot.
That will be my top choice. Uh, the horse catches my attention, but is nonetheless, he’s got three really fast racism in his career. Um, and, and, you know, one was on wet, fast, Polly one was on Polly and one was in the mud. So maybe he just needs it to be weird like that for him to run well. But, uh, he’s definitely going to be a little bit interesting.
He should be a little bit of a price. Okay. Let’s talk about race eight. We’re turf sprinting here in the Giant’s Causeway going five and a half. Furlongs an old favorite of mine. And here, I just have to give the shout out to it won’t be much price, but I just, I just like Morticia so much such a hard trier.
Couldn’t quite get it done last time at Gulf stream. But if you look at the PPS and it looks like maybe she’s forgotten how to win. I think it’s a question of getting her in the right spot. I’m going to give more Tisha, one more chance here in the Giant’s Causeway. JK, what did you come up with? Gave me the, the, the trainer and the connections that, that don’t know how to lose sprint races.
And that’s surrender now. Rockingham ranch and Peter Miller, who gets Johnny V I don’t, I don’t know how many times Johnny V as written for Peter Miller, but, uh, I’m definitely interested in, in, in surrender. Now, surrender now is two, uh, races at, uh, two wins last year. At Del Mar going five, stepping up the five and a half.
It obviously has some ability and, and that spot hair. And I just think sh I think that Philly could be extremely tough, kind of speed of the speed feel gets Johnny and then has all those, uh, those, those sprint. Winning connections. The owners of Roy H the, the winner, the owners of X, Y jet, and the owners of stormy liberal.
Who’s our back-to-back breeders’ cup turf sprint winner. Uh, Peter knows what he’s doing, and Rockingham ranch knows what they’re doing when they’re buying these, these spread of things surrender. Now, it can be tough in there, but Morticia definitely deserves some credit. Let’s move on to the Lexington grade three goes as race nine mile pal Sueno back for more wondering if Sueno can’t work out kind of a nice trip here, I’m going to give Sueno one more chance.
What did you think about the Lexington? Yeah, he swaying. It was a horse that I’ve tried to fade the last three times and I successfully have done so fate on the wheel, on the wind. And I didn’t like the horse of saying Anita and the sham ran second. Didn’t like him in the Southwest ran second. It didn’t like him, Louisiana Derby green and third, but he kind of keeps hanging around and he’s the trees about to make me look stupid.
I actually think that he’s kind of trending in the right direction. I want to say Harvey Wallbanger, but I don’t want to bet him. Um, especially at Keelan on the race where he almost got inducted into the chandelier hall of fame. Another twist of fate is a horse that I would be interested in, but the problem is, and I liked this person.
So don’t start any Twitter beef end DeRosa like loves another twist of fate. And he also likes the chop house
for those who missed it. That’s okay. Call back to another episode. I don’t know if I could go down the rabbit hole and talk about it, but let’s just say this ad, who’s a friend. He is a fan. He’s a big fan of the hot take. And sometimes I think these hot takes are just straight up trolling. And when he mentioned this restaurant, the chop house, which I’ve never been to, but apparently is more full of a P types than it is like.
Proper food loving types. From what I’ve heard, I’m thinking maybe that was one of these straight up trolls JK. So I don’t know that the, that that’s dead on or, well, I don’t know. I’m just throwing it out there. Well, so my girlfriend lives in Lexington. I am there all the time. I, I, we, I eat out all the time.
Uh, uh, the, the Prince of Keelan is there and I I’m there. And I always ask people now that I’ve seen ads, video talking about chop house. I’m like, cause I’m scared to try. I keep asking. He like chop house, chop house, and everyone looks at me like, what, what are you crazy? What are you crazy? What? So I’m going to try it.
Next weekend. Nice. Next week I’m going to Tony is Sunday night, Tony, Sunday night. I know that’s good crab cakes. Like we talked about on the other show with Gabby GoDaddy. I’m going to do a I’m going to do Tony’s but then it made me like, you know, during the week I’ll I’ll I’ll go to jail. We want we’re we’re we’re all waiting with bated breath for the report.
The Jenny wildly JK, the grade one is race 10. Is it as simple as rushing fall bidding? Gabby dropped that crazy stat on us about horses winning for graded stakes races at Keene Linda. And it was a surprisingly exclusive list rushing fall, aiming to join it. I don’t see any reason to bet against her. How about you?
Well, there’s two other Chad’s but why’s Dan being on the other horses. I wish I owned a sports book or I had an in with a guy where I could tell them a very fun prop bet would be. Of will three, well, two of Chad Brown’s three runners run in the Trifacta and that’d be a lot of fun. And they’d probably action.
Five. You think? So for two to run anything you want to find? That was my gut it’s, it’s probably, it’s probably an overreach, but that’s my first gut is like, I mean, last year he was one, two, three in the darn race. So yeah. It J J K tries my field. I don’t know. One to five is too short, but I think it’s odd.
I think it’s, I think it’s certainly a significant odds on as opposed to a 50 50 play, but I don’t know. I’m just throwing stuff out. We do our own sports book. We want one of our listeners to do a do on Twitter. Do a poll. Well, I guess we’ll do it. I’ll do the poll, right? I’ll do the poll. So I’m going to do a poll on Twitter, where it says, you know, um, you know, he has one horse in the exact, uh, I mean, excuse me, one horse in the trifecta or two horses that trifecta and, uh, I’ll do ask it ITM and we’ll, we’ll retweet it and we’ll see what people say, uh, and see a good idea.
What the price would be. Well, three horses be a choice. You’re going to do all three, one horse, two horses. Yeah. I mean it eliminates the point of like the head-to-head matchup bet. Um, But yeah, no, I mean, yeah, we’ll do, we’ll do one, two and three. I don’t know. We’ll think about it. Well, think about it. This is a production meeting in the show gone wrong here.
Right? I like rushing fall. I think rim good. And on the moon again, like the same horse. I, they, I feel like they, they both ran really well last time. Um, but I just think rushing fall is a freak. And, and, and I won’t tell you because I don’t want to give our friends at Keelan select some love. I won’t tell you who Gabby told us is working unbelievably in this race.
You got to listen to the Caitlin select show to get that Gabby piece of which horse in this race she’s heard is working unbelievable since the last, last race that horse went in. But I mean, I actually think that all three of the chat horses are going to run in. And there you have it. Okay. We are way over.
Yeah. This time on this edition of the end, the money players podcast. And given that we have two other shows this week, we’re not going to belabor the point any further. So I’d like to thank Jay K. I would like to thank Marshall. Well, Graham, I’d like to thank all of you, the listener. Thank you so much. You make the show so fun to do, especially those of you who are supporting our partners like black type thoroughbreds.
And the thoroughbred retirement foundation. We always like to throw in a shout out for our friends at 10th strike racing, particularly this time. Thanks to Marshall cramps, fine contributions to this show. The show has been a production of in the money media, in the money media as director of business development is drew Kotani.
I’m Peter Thomas foreign Itau. We’ll be back before you know, it. May you win all your photos.
PTF here again, just to remind you one more time about this low ratio, high roller contest for the breeders’ cup betting challenge. Get all the details on horseplayers.com or if you really want to help us out, go to our Twitter, click through our link and get to the page that way. Check it out. Breeders’ cup betting challenge on horseplayers.com.